MLB Bets 2026-08-05

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	966W–451L–0P	68%	-40.01 u	Last 14 days • 1417 settled
Grade A	26W–30L–0P	46%	-10.10 u
Grade B	940W–419L–0P	69%	-27.90 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3111W–1982L–8P	61%	-179.06 u	All-time • 5101 settled
Grade A	247W–189L–0P	57%	-3.66 u
Grade B	2864W–1791L–8P	62%	-173.40 u

131 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter H+R+RBI	Yainer Diaz	1.5	-116	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Hits	Cedric Mullins	1.5	-239	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Andres Gimenez	0.5	-484	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Andy Pages	0.5	-331	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-529	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-378	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Bryce Eldridge	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Buddy Kennedy	0.5	-412	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-383	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-241	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-391	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-359	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Edouard Julien	0.5	-386	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	-236	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-204	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-630	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-473	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Jordan Beck	0.5	-548	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-200	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Justin Foscue	0.5	-238	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Kyle Karros	0.5	-444	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber	0.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Liam Hicks	0.5	-201	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-455	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Mickey Moniak	0.5	-517	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-326	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Osleivis Basabe	0.5	-343	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-516	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	William Contreras	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford	0.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Yordan Alvarez	0.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	K Prop	Cody Bradford	3.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	K Prop	Mitch Bratt	3.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	K Prop	Noah Cameron	4.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	K Prop	Paul Skenes	6.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	K Prop	Sean Burke	6.5	107	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	K Prop	Shota Imanaga	4.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	NRFI	NRFI	-	124	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	NRFI	NRFI	-	132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Andrew Painter	2.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Bryan Woo	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Hunter Brown	1.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Nick Martinez	3.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Paul Skenes	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Sean Burke	2.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Eric Lauer	5.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Hunter Brown	5.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nick Martinez	6.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Rhett Lowder	5.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Sean Burke	5.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Tomoyuki Sugano	6.5	-106	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Outs	Sean Burke	17.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Bryce Elder	1.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Carson Whisenhunt	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Christian Scott	1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Cody Bradford	0.5	-177	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Eric Lauer	1.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Eury Perez	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Hunter Brown	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Nick Martinez	0.5	-184	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Noah Cameron	2.5	-188	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Reid Detmers	1.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Run Line	Arizona Diamondbacks	+1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	YRFI	YRFI	-	128	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-04	Run Line	San Francisco Giants	+1.5	-125	-	WIN	+0.800	Final: San Francisco Giants 4, Texas Ran
2026-08-04	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	3.5	-153	-	WIN	+0.654	Hayden Wesneski: 4.0 (line 3.5)
2026-08-04	K Prop	Sean Manaea	4.5	-134	-	WIN	+0.746	Sean Manaea: 7.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	512	56%	-11.76u	64	47%	-11.46u	239	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	453	57%	+6.21u	58	48%	-8.98u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	160	57%	+4.51u	22	77%	+7.60u	44	64%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1543	74%	-22.57u	916	75%	-13.51u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	505	57%	-18.99u	107	52%	-11.26u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	369	61%	-6.91u	83	63%	+1.92u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	51	71%	-0.40u	14	50%	-4.30u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	3	33%	-1.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	1
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	1
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	115	48%	-11.87u	7	86%	+3.24u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	25	56%	-0.69u	24	58%	+0.31u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	566	52%	-53.10u	82	60%	+3.59u	85	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 24 total candidate(s); season N 512, 14d N 64	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 12 total candidate(s); season N 453, 14d N 58	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 160, 14d N 22	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 20 total candidate(s); season N 51, 14d N 14	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 244 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 3	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 115, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 25, 14d N 24	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 200 total candidate(s); season N 566, 14d N 82	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 200 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 780 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 224 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 757 pitcher(s), 3352 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 569 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 8 team(s), 72 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1264 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 72 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 4 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Los Angeles Angels, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Athletics, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Tampa Bay Rays, San Francisco Giants, Athletics, Boston Red Sox
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 30 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 334 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 13/13 game(s) with pitching props \| K 26 line(s)/13 game(s); Outs 26 line(s)/13 game(s); Hits Allowed 25 line(s)/13 game(s); Walks 25 line(s)/13 game(s); Earned Runs 26 line(s)/13 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 122, betmgm 5, espnbet 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2810 market side(s) checked \| 2810 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 13 game(s) fetched \| 13 with ML odds \| 13 with total odds \| 4 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 200 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 13 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 2 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 613 \| batter bats 403 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 60 \| batter pitch-type 569 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 228 batter(s) scored \| 13 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 94 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	+138	-147	1.5 (-154)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	-153	+144	-1.5 (-110)	1.5 (-109)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	+111	-118	1.5 (-196)	-1.5 (+161)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	+137	-146	1.5 (-156)	-1.5 (+129)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	+103	-110	-1.5 (+161)	1.5 (-197)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+174	-186	1.5 (-127)	-1.5 (+105)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+144	-153	1.5 (-156)	-1.5 (+129)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+120	-128	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+115	-122	1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	+119	-127	1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+106	-113	-1.5 (+158)	1.5 (-192)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-119	+112	-1.5 (+129)	1.5 (-156)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+143	-152	1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 61 Grade B | 965 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -156	K Prop	Noah Cameron Over	TWI@ROY	7:41 PM	4.5	6.3	-156	FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 \| best price	41.1%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	🔬 Research Only K final QC: juiced K over -162, expected IP 5.2 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Cody Bradford Over	GIA@RAN	2:36 PM	3.5	4.7	-162	Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -150 \| best price	32.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch	K Prop	Sean Burke Over	SOX@SOX	7:11 PM	6.5	8.0	+107	theScore Bet Over 4.5 +130 \| alt rescue	22.4%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (16 play(s))

K Prop - Sean Burke Over

Projection: 8.0Displayed: Over 6.5 +107Market line: majority 5.5 | avg 5.64Recommended: theScore Bet Over 4.5 +130 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.64 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.64

K Prop - Reid Detmers Over

Projection: 7.7Displayed: Over 7.5 +119Market line: majority 6.5 | avg 6.5Recommended: BetOnline Over 6.5 -143 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.5

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -118Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -118 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

K Prop - Andrew Painter Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.5

Pitcher Earned Runs - Will Warren Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Hits - Alec Bohm Under

Projection: 0.9Displayed: Under 1.5 -274Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Jackson Merrill Under

Projection: 1.0Displayed: Under 1.5 -261Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Nick Fortes Under

Projection: 1.0Displayed: Under 1.5 -251Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Jung Hoo Lee Under

Projection: 1.1Displayed: Under 1.5 -252Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Jake McCarthy Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.25

Batter Total Bases - Riley Greene Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Munetaka Murakami Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Nick Gonzales Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Travis Bazzana Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Mauricio Dubon Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.9

Batter Total Bases - Coby Mayo Over

Projection: 1.5Displayed: Over 1.5 +130Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.7Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.7

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 4.5 (-156) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-152	+117	-
BetRivers	4.5	-152	+114	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-156	+122	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 41.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.85K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Noah Cameron: K/9 8.6, proj 6.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 93 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .398
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 93 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.2%, L7 17.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 26.9%/93 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.4 ppts (recent 24.8% vs season 21.4%, proj adj +1.7%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -156 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Cody Bradford Over 3.5 (-162) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -162

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+121	-
BetRivers	3.5	-165	+123	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	Recommended
DK	3.5	-162	+127	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	-
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 32.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.4% / under 41.6%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Umpire: Louie Krupa — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.7%, L7 16.6%, season 20.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: K: no recent game-log sample
A-tier gate: 67% consensus, but diff_pct 32.8% >= 21.3% and raw gap 1.15 >= 1.00

⚠ K final QC: juiced K over -162, expected IP 5.2 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Sean Burke Over 6.5 (+107) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 4.5 +130 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.64 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 4.5 +130 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+130	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	5.5	-147	+113	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+110	-
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	-
BetRivers	6.5	+120	-159	-
DK	6.5	+107	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 22.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Sean Burke: K/9 11.1, proj 8.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .405
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.0%, L7 20.6%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.00 | Season Avg 6.36
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.64 vs season
K% trend: support +10.4 ppts (recent 38.1% vs season 27.7%, proj adj +5.2%)
A-tier gate: 67% consensus, but diff_pct 22.4% >= 21.3% and raw gap 1.46 >= 1.00

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (61 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Mitch Bratt Under 3.5 (-164) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 3.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 3.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	3.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	3.5	+122	-159	-
BetRivers	3.5	+116	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	3.5	+120	-160	-
DK	3.5	+128	-164	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+124	-160	-
Fanatics	3.5	+130	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 28.8% vs 17% min; cushion -1.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Mitch Bratt: K/9 6.9, proj 2.5K over 4.3 IP (season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 15.6% | put-away% 8.4% | xwOBA 0.339 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Slider: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.7%, L7 19.7%, season 22.1% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: K L10: 4/5 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 6.5 (-149) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 6.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 6.62 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 6.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-152	+116	-
BetRivers	6.5	-148	+110	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
DK	6.5	-149	+117	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-156	+122	-
Fanatics	6.5	-145	+110	Recommended
theScore Bet	6.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	+115	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 19.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta -0.14
Paul Skenes: K/9 11.6, proj 7.8K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.267 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 32.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 79 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .178 | OPS .514
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 79 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.8%, L7 21.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 30.4%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.40 | Season Avg 6.78
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sean Burke Under 5.5 (-156) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 34.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.67 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 0.99, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .405
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.0%, L7 20.6%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Under 6.5 (-106) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-120	-120	-
DK	6.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	6.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.7 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 27.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.05, BB% 4.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 24 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .432
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 29.2%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Rhett Lowder Under 5.5 (-128) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 4.2 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.9 outs/5.3 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.8%, L7 22.5%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Cody Bradford Over 0.5 (-175) diff 230.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.65078160922233 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.7%, L7 16.6%, season 20.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 5.7%, L7 9.7%, season 7.0% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-175) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Nick Martinez Over 0.5 (-184) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -184

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-184	+138	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.8595306602535554 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.17 over 5.5 IP (BB% 4.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.7% / under 39.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 24 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .432
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 29.2%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 8.6%, L7 6.2%, season 8.1%, BVP 8.3%/24 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-184) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Eury Perez Over 1.5 (-170) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.16334668851462 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 5.6 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 64 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .362 | OPS 1.096
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.8%, L7 18.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 15.6%/64 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 8.3%, L7 6.2%, season 7.9%, BVP 7.8%/64 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Carson Whisenhunt Over 1.5 (-182) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-182	+136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-175	+125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.108846308298181 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Carson Whisenhunt: 6 PA | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 21.5%, L7 25.9%, season 22.7%, top-6 21.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.9%, L7 9.4%, season 8.6% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/4 (100%) | L10 4/4 (100%) | L20 4/4 (100%) | Season 4/4 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/4 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-182) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Christian Scott Over 1.5 (-126) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.107373175915672 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.4%, L7 17.9%, season 22.1% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 9.6%, L7 11.7%, season 9.7% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Noah Cameron Under 2.5 (-188) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -188 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7410770378476315 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 30.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.0% / under 61.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 93 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.2%, L7 17.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 26.9%/93 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.6%, L7 7.2%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.3%/93 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-188); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Reid Detmers Over 1.5 (-128) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-128	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9438668255172031 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.2 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 46 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .171 | OPS .651
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.1%, L7 24.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 30.4%/46 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 11.6%, L7 10.3%, season 10.2%, BVP 10.9%/46 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Bryce Elder Over 1.5 (-120) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9146933766258145 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.2 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 51 PA | K% 15.7% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .295 | OPS .835
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.1%, L7 18.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.7%/51 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 9.8%, L7 9.6%, season 8.9%, BVP 9.8%/51 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Over 1.5 (-174) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-174	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.89 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.62, ERA 4.94)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 43 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 2.3% | AVG .286 | OPS .636
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.3%, L7 19.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.9%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Burke Under 2.5 (-137) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.04 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.65, ERA 2.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .405
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.0%, L7 20.6%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Casey Mize Under 2.5 (-141) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.07 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.78, ERA 2.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 40 PA | K% 17.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .182 | OPS .578
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 18.4%, L7 18.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 17.5%/40 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/16 (75%) | Season 12/16 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-162) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+120	-
DK	1.5	-162	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.19 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.12, ERA 4.27)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 79 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .178 | OPS .514
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.8%, L7 21.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 30.4%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Christian Scott Over 1.5 (-152) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	-
DK	1.5	-152	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.42 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 3.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.4%, L7 17.9%, season 22.1% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Hits — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-239) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -239 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -239

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -239 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+177	-239	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.69 (AVG 0.206)
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.356 (12 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Recent form: L10 8/31 (26%) | L5 4/13 (31%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/98 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/50 under 1.5 (94%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Hits: 39/48 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Hits: 86/98 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.69

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-239) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 41 play(s) (B 41)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-630) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -630

Selected market: Over 18.6% / Under 81.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+407	-630	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/99 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 82/99 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-630) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-395) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -395 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -395

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -395 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+269	-395	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .633
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-395) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-391) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+267	-391	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/106 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 87/106 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-391) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-383) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -383 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -383

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -383 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+262	-383	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/108 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 91/108 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-383) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-488) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -480 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -488

Selected market: Over 22.1% / Under 77.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -480 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+325	-488	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/104 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 88/104 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-488) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-326) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -326 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -326

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -326 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+226	-326	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/110 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 90/110 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-326) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-454) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -454

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+305	-454	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/110 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 90/110 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-454) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-475) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 22.5% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -475 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+318	-475	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-473) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -473 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -473

Selected market: Over 22.5% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -473 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+317	-473	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 96/112 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 96/112 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Heavy juice (-473); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-529) diff 63.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -529 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -529

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -529 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+349	-529	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.71x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/113 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 85/113 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-529); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-370) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -370 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+254	-370	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/104 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 79/104 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-370); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-483) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -483 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -483

Selected market: Over 22.2% / Under 77.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -483 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+322	-483	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 88/109 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 88/109 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-483); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-260) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+184	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .891
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/109 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 89/109 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Heavy juice (-260); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-372) diff 56.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -372

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	-
DK	0.5	+255	-372	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/92 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 66/92 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-372) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-455) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -455

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	-
DK	0.5	+306	-455	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+350	-575	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/106 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 85/106 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-455); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-359) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+247	-359	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-359) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-386) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+264	-386	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-386) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-517) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -517 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -517

Selected market: Over 21.3% / Under 78.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -517 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+342	-517	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-517) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Beck Under 0.5 (-548) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -548 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -548

Selected market: Over 20.4% / Under 79.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -548 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+360	-548	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-548) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-256) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+181	-256	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 73/98 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-256) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-353) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -353 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -353

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -353 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+243	-353	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/105 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 77/105 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-353) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-257) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+181	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 74/105 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-257); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-323) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+224	-323	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 19 PA | 5/18 | HR 0 | K% 21.1% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .760
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/109 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 82/109 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-323); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-281) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/109 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-281); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-230) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+164	-230	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 79/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-230); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-323) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+225	-323	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/105 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 83/105 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-323) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-365) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -365 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -365

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -365 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+251	-365	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/105 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 82/105 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-365); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-352) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -352

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+243	-352	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/99 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 77/99 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-352); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-403) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -403

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+274	-403	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/113 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 89/113 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-403); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-378) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -378

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+259	-378	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 79/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-378); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-240) diff 47.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+170	-240	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.0% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-240) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Buddy Kennedy Under 0.5 (-412) diff 47.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -412 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -412

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -412 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+280	-412	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.0% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-412) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-343) diff 47.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -343

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+237	-343	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.0% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-343) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-280) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+196	-280	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/109 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 80/109 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-280) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-236) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -236 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+167	-236	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/105 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 83/105 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-236) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-516) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -516

Selected market: Over 21.3% / Under 78.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+341	-516	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 72/111 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-516) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-201) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+144	-201	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 32/52 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 68/102 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-201) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-444) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -444

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+299	-444	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/106 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/52 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 65/106 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-444) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-204) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -204 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -204 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+146	-204	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/109 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 81/109 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-204) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-139) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -139

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+110	-145	-
DK	0.5	+101	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-238) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+169	-238	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-238) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 1.5 (-156) edge 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -156

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -149 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: -0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+7.92/$100
✓ Cover prob 65.8% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 7.5% ≥ 5%
✓ Arizona Diamondbacks home RL 71% (7 bets)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -156 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Mitch Bratt (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Casey Mize (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 98 blended 35% (team 97)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 0.98
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Mitch Bratt small sample (20 IP) — stats 25% actual / 75% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (965 signal(s))

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 200 play(s) (A 1 | B 13 | C 186)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (-133) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 54/105 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eddy Alvarez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 122.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 3.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 122.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.63
Base projection 2.63 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.504, xSLG 0.732 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/113 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/58 over 1.5 (69%), avg 3.02 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 62/113 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.1% (1 books) — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High hits diff 123% (≥120%) — verify projection

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-120) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.46
Base projection 2.46 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.419 (79 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/111 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 34/55 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 65/111 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.46

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-134) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.452 (58 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (-136) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-136	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.381 (43 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 51/109 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-125) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.04x
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/104 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 57/104 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-131) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/111 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/57 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 57/111 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-157) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
DK	1.5	-157	+118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (-133) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.469 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/106 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 47/106 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 2.5 (-132) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	2.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	2.5	-134	+101	-
DK	2.5	-132	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.93 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.402 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/113 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/59 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 45/113 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-137) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-162) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-162	+122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Beck Over 1.5 (-139) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-139	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 2.5 (-127) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	2.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	2.5	-120	-112	-
DK	2.5	-127	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.74 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.391 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/110 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/56 over 2.5 (43%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 20/54 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 44/110 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elias Diaz Over 1.5 (+116) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 87.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.440, xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/109 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 63/109 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.31

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-126) diff 63.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.300 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/90 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/48 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.56 | Away Batter HRR: 23/42 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 53/90 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nicky Lopez Over 1.5 (+112) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 35/54 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 72/110 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.38

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-133) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.4% / Under 46.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-133	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 35/54 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 72/110 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.38

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-168) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	1.5	-170	+126	-
DK	1.5	-168	+126	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/106 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/50 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 59/106 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-133) diff 58.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.441 (75 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/113 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.70 | Day Batter HRR: 64/113 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-116) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.537 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 66/113 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+119) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.403, xSLG 0.623 (114 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/106 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 56/106 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+129) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.403, xSLG 0.623 (114 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/106 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 56/106 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-134) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.369, xSLG 0.473 (68 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-169) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-169	+127	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.279 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/50 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.74 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 51/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+108) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.395, xSLG 0.596 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/104 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.54 | Day Batter HRR: 55/104 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-138) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.405 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .891
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 57/109 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-162) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-164	+122	-
DK	1.5	-162	+122	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/95 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 54/95 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.11

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-112) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.422, xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-121) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.451 (64 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 54/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+106) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.380 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/113 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/57 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 63/113 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-117) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-117	-114	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.515 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/104 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 53/104 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-107) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
Base projection 2.42 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/79 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/40 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/39 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 47/79 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-152) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-152	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.325 (63 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/112 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 56/112 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-127) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.361, xSLG 0.463 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 52/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+119) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.526 (140 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 65/115 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-103) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.448, xSLG 0.670 (35 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/109 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 48/109 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-118) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.467 (60 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.18

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-137) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.390 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 62/108 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-137) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.470 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/111 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 53/111 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-109) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.02x
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 31/61 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 59/114 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-122) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-123) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.500, xSLG 0.808 (22 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/94 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 46/94 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-112) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 55/106 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-128) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.220, xSLG 0.289 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 55/113 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-138) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.314 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/111 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 53/111 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+108) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.415 (111 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 35/55 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter HRR: 62/109 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-123) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.544 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 57/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-109) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.302 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/107 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 63/107 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-108) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.297 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 20 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 5.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.137
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-112) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/60 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 61/113 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-110) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.485 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 45/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-110) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.372, xSLG 0.501 (21 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+120) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.577 (35 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .476
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/102 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 49/102 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+107) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.438 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+123) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.584 (41 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 59/103 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-111) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.584 (41 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 59/103 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Foscue Over 1.5 (+119) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-112) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.374, xSLG 0.539 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-106) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/96 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 49/96 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-112) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/113 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 53/113 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-105) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.123, xSLG 0.089 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 57/109 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-123) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-123	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.505 (47 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .821
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/89 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 40/89 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+100) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.422 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/108 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 56/108 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Under 2.5 (-148) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+110	-148	-
DK	2.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.83 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.492 (12 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/98 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/50 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 36/48 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 74/98 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-113) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.194, xSLG 0.264 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 56/110 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+110) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.04x
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+101) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.263 (83 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/109 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 53/109 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (-139) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 2.5 (-137) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	2.5	-102	-130	-
DK	2.5	+104	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.88 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-106) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.365 (85 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/109 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 33/55 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 60/109 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-108) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 11 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .990
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 60/114 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-144) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 19 PA | 5/18 | HR 0 | K% 21.1% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .760
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/109 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 47/109 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-120) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.398 (19 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/82 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 39/82 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-101) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/112 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 54/112 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-122) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.349 (19 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (-121) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Fortes Over 1.5 (-153) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-153	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (-103) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.224 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/92 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 46/92 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Evan Carter Over 1.5 (+131) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+125) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.190, xSLG 0.216 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/109 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 59/109 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+100) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/109 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.53 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/109 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-124) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/109 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.53 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/109 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-128) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.395 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 57/110 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+111) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.290 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-121) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.343 (39 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/84 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/43 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 40/84 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-112) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/105 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 57/105 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Under 2.5 (-140) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+103	-137	-
DK	2.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.09 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.281 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/106 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/57 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 34/49 under 2.5 (69%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 76/106 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Young Over 1.5 (+129) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-113) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+107) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.202, xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/106 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 53/106 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+122) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.202, xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/106 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 53/106 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (+110) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.311 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/93 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 22/42 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 48/93 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 2.5 (-148) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	-
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+115	-154	-
DK	2.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.13 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.383 (74 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/112 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/55 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 37/57 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 76/112 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-159) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.186, xSLG 0.199 (45 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/109 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 69/109 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+109) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 54/106 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Under 2.5 (-160) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.19 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.277 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/52 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 33/52 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 67/104 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 2.5 (-140) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.81 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.440, xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/109 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 17/53 over 2.5 (32%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 44/109 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.31

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+103) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.297 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/82 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 40/82 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-121) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/94 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 41/94 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+105) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.186, xSLG 0.201 (64 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 48/105 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Under 2.5 (-154) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	-
BetOnline	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+114	-152	-
DK	2.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.24 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.253 (44 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 17 PA | 4/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.9% | BB% 17.6% | OPS .855
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 38/57 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 73/114 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-102) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-117) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.141, xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 62/105 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (-104) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.258 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 47/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Under 2.5 (-134) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.26 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 23 PA | 3/19 | HR 1 | K% 21.7% | BB% 17.4% | OPS .620
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/54 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.35 | Away Batter HRR: 35/54 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 69/108 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-132) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.449 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 70/105 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edouard Julien Over 1.5 (+108) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+125) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.279 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Over 1.5 (+127) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.543 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .933
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 34/95 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/49 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 34/95 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-107) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.287 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-117) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.173, xSLG 0.148 (12 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .970
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-108) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.04x
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+102) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 45/106 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+117) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/112 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 46/112 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+115) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+117) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+123) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+129) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+129	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+133) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.02x
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-108) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (-104) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (+106) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (-119) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Sullivan Over 1.5 (+120) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+104) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+113) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Owen Caissie Over 1.5 (+122) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-103) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.207, xSLG 0.219 (41 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-140) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.98x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Under 2.5 (-159) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	Recommended
Caesars	2.5	+117	-157	-
DK	2.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.438 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 18 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .863
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/56 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.55 | Away Batter HRR: 40/55 under 2.5 (73%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 72/111 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-135) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (-102) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-106) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+122) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+101) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +101; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+101	-133	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (-115) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-110) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-116) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (-101) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Kreidler Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (-101) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (+121) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alan Roden Over 1.5 (+120) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-128) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.98x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 2.5 (+103) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+109	-145	-
DK	2.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.57 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.243 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 39/102 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/50 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 22/52 over 2.5 (42%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 39/102 over 2.5 (38%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-130) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (-126) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (-116) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (-111) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (-111) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-107) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-102) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+110) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt McLain Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Donovan Walton Over 1.5 (+122) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-108) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-113) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Genao Under 1.5 (-163) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [INJ] Angel Genao -- Reassigned to Minors

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: [INJ] Angel Genao -- Reassigned to Minors

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-120) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/87 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 54/87 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+107) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+107	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.175, xSLG 0.212 (11 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 51/108 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+129) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+119) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-101) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Under 2.5 (-159) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+117	-157	-
DK	2.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.46 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.436, xSLG 0.673 (29 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/93 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 28/45 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 53/93 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-174) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.229 (18 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/102 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 under 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter HRR: 59/102 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-128) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 (+116) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+118) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+108) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+104) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+105) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+100) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+120) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+138) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+119) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+129) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremiah Jackson Over 1.5 (+112) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+116) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (+120) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James McCann Over 1.5 (+120) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+128) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+108) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-124) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (-134) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+114) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Lombard Jr. Under 1.5 (-127) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-130	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-131) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.262 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/53 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 61/110 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nasim Nunez Under 1.5 (-171) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.220, xSLG 0.215 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/106 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 64/106 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ K Prop — 19 play(s) (B 2 | C 17)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jake Irvin Over 3.5 (-127) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-122	-106	Recommended
BetRivers	3.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
DK	3.5	-127	+100	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 11.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.8% / under 47.2%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jake Irvin: K/9 8.8, proj 3.9K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.358 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 27.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 174 PA | K% 13.2% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .272 | OPS .766
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 174 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.6%, L7 17.0%, season 23.4%, active roster 21.0%/9 hitters, BVP 13.2%/174 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 77%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 17.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (9 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/12 (83%) | Season 10/12 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.92
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 7.5 (+119) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 -143 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 1 book | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 -143 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	6.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	6.5	-148	+116	-
DK	7.5	+119	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.6K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 2.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.2% / under 56.8%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.20
Reid Detmers: K/9 10.9, proj 7.6K over 5.4 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.3% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 36.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 46 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .171 | OPS .651
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.1%, L7 24.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 30.4%/46 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.59
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Rhett Lowder Under 4.5 (-162) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 4.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 4.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	-
BetOnline	4.5	+124	-161	-
BetRivers	4.5	+114	-152	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+127	-162	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 18.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.82K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.6% / under 58.4%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Rhett Lowder: K/9 7.5, proj 3.7K over 4.5 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.9 outs/5.3 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.8% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.8%, L7 22.5%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.68
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Casey Mize Over 4.5 (+102) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4.5	-101	-128	-
BetRivers	4.5	+104	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+102	-131	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.75K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.6% / under 53.4%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Casey Mize: K/9 8.8, proj 5.3K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.5% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.273 | top pitch: Split-Finger (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Split-Finger: 45.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 40 PA | K% 17.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .182 | OPS .578
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 18.4%, L7 18.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 17.5%/40 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.31
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Carson Whisenhunt Over 4.5 (+125) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +125

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 4.25 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
BetRivers	4.5	+125	-167	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+125	-159	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.0% / under 58.0%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Carson Whisenhunt: K/9 8.1, proj 5.2K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.3% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.408 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Louie Krupa — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Carson Whisenhunt: 6 PA | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 21.5%, L7 25.9%, season 22.7%, top-6 21.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/4 (25%) | L10 1/4 (25%) | L20 1/4 (25%) | Season 1/4 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/4 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Lopez Under 5.5 (-156) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
BetRivers	5.5	+112	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Jacob Lopez: K/9 9.1, proj 4.8K over 4.3 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Slider (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 22.0%, L7 28.4%, season 25.2% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/17 (82%) | Season 14/17 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.59
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +9.0 ppts (recent 27.7% vs season 18.7%, proj adj +4.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 133 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 (-104) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -104

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+165	-240	-
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-114	-114	-
BetRivers	4.5	-122	-109	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-122	-104	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-114	-106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.9% / under 48.1%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Tanner Bibee: K/9 6.2, proj 3.9K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Cutter (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Cutter: 17.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .163 | OPS .542
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, active roster 20.4%/6 hitters, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 25.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.35
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.1 ppts (recent 13.5% vs season 18.6%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 98 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryan Woo Under 6.5 (-140) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	6.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	6.5	+106	-141	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
DK	6.5	+109	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	6.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 12.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.83K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryan Woo: K/9 9.4, proj 5.7K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.292 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 43 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 2.3% | AVG .286 | OPS .636
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.3%, L7 19.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.9%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Will Warren Over 4.5 (-107) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-125	-103	-
BetRivers	4.5	-110	-121	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	-
DK	4.5	-107	-120	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-108	-118	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.7% / under 51.3%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Will Warren: K/9 9.1, proj 5.0K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 29.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 25 PA | K% 32.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .136 | OPS .376
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 20.4%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 32.0%/25 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.95
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eury Perez Over 5.5 (-104) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	+103	-133	-
BetRivers	5.5	-103	-129	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	Recommended
DK	5.5	-104	-123	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.57K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.0% / under 52.0%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Eury Perez: K/9 9.3, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Slider: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 64 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .362 | OPS 1.096
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.8%, L7 18.3%, season 21.2%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters, BVP 15.6%/64 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 18.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.89
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor Rogers Over 5.5 (-124) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-120	-108	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-124	-103	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-115	-111	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.2% / under 47.8%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Trevor Rogers: K/9 7.7, proj 6.0K over 5.7 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Sweeper (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Sweeper: 39.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 31 PA | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.012
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 25.1%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 32.3%/31 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.45
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Martinez Over 3.5 (-110) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	3.5	-108	-120	Recommended
BetRivers	3.5	-108	-124	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-110	-116	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.33K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 2/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Nick Martinez: K/9 4.5, proj 3.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.8% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Roberto Ortiz — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 24 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .432
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 29.2%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 3.29
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Painter Under 4.5 (-164) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.3% / Under 58.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 3.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190	-
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	3.5	-161	+124	-
BetRivers	3.5	-167	+125	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	3.5	-164	+128	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	4.5	+129	-164	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.3% / under 58.7%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.14
Andrew Painter: K/9 7.9, proj 4.2K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.349 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .692
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/15 (73%) | Season 11/15 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.93
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-135) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+110	-143	-
BetRivers	5.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+106	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Sonny Gray: K/9 7.5, proj 5.2K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .315 | OPS .814
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.5%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 4.90
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Harrison Under 6.5 (-156) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 6.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.21 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 6.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 5.5 +117; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	5.5	-155	+117	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	6.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	6.5	+118	-154	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	+130	-170	-
DK	6.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+132	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Kyle Harrison: K/9 10.3, proj 6.2K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.277 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 1% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 25 PA | K% 48.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .532
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.1%, split 24.6%, L7 24.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 48.0%/25 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.94
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andre Pallante Over 4.5 (+102) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	-
BetRivers	4.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	Recommended
DK	4.5	+102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Andre Pallante: K/9 6.2, proj 4.7K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 14.4% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 57 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .275 | OPS .978
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.7%, L7 24.1%, season 24.3%, BVP 22.8%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.10
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Christian Scott Under 5.5 (-143) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.21 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	-
BetOnline	5.5	+134	-175	-
BetRivers	5.5	+116	-155	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+112	-143	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+128	-164	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Christian Scott: K/9 11.3, proj 5.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 18.4%, L7 17.9%, season 22.1%, active roster 17.9%/7 hitters (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 17.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 32.3% vs season 28.8%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Elder Under 4.5 (+108) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +108

Selected market: Over 54.7% / Under 45.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	-
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-127	-102	-
BetRivers	4.5	-139	+105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-138	+108	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-138	+108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.7% / under 45.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Bryce Elder: K/9 7.7, proj 4.4K over 5.4 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 32.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 51 PA | K% 15.7% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .295 | OPS .835
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.1%, L7 18.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.7%/51 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.81
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dean Kremer Over 4.5 (-122) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-119	-109	-
BetRivers	4.5	-117	-114	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	Recommended
DK	4.5	-122	-104	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-118	-108	-
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.9% / under 48.1%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Dean Kremer: K/9 8.6, proj 4.6K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .288 | OPS .801
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 56 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 24.1%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3%, active roster 22.0%/6 hitters, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.43 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 192 play(s) (B 3 | C 189)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-140) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
DK	0.5	-140	+101	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.66
Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 23 PA | 3/19 | HR 1 | K% 21.7% | BB% 17.4% | OPS .620
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 58/108 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.66

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+233) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +233 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +233

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +233 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 58/113 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 29.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 29.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+220) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 58/113 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 28.4% (1 books) — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+103) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +103

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+103	-143	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.78
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/112 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/60 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 63/112 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.78

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+113) diff 57.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+113	-156	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/84 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/43 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.72 | Away Batter Walks: 18/41 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 42/84 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+118) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+118	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 17 PA | 4/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.9% | BB% 17.6% | OPS .855
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/57 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 55/114 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-258) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+197	-280	-
DK	0.5	+182	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-260) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+184	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-207) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -207

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+148	-207	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-479) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -479 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -479

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -479 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+320	-479	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-320) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+223	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 18 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .863
BVP walk adjustment: 0.86x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/111 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 84/111 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-425) diff 49.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/103 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 77/103 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-312) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+217	-312	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/109 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 80/109 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-373) diff 47.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+256	-373	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.0% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-397) diff 47.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -397

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+270	-397	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.0% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-368) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+253	-368	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-390) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+266	-390	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-352) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -352

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+243	-352	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/114 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/114 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-396) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+270	-396	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/114 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/114 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-296) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+207	-296	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+205	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/114 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/114 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-279) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+196	-279	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 77/108 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-368) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+253	-368	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .933
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/95 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 70/95 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-479) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -479 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -479

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -479 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+320	-479	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/108 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 84/108 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-307) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -307

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+214	-307	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/93 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 29/42 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 67/93 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-367) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -367

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+252	-367	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-354) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+244	-354	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/79 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/40 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 57/79 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-326) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -326 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -326

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -326 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+226	-326	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-247) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+175	-247	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-387) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -387

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+264	-387	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-247) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+175	-247	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 20 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 5.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.137
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/108 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/108 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-241) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -241

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+171	-241	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/106 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 73/106 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-238) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+169	-238	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/106 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 73/106 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-317) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+221	-317	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/113 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 86/113 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-335) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -335; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+232	-335	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/112 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 74/112 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-368) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+252	-368	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-202) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+145	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-271) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+191	-271	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-274) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+193	-274	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-306) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+214	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-310) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+216	-310	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-342) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -342

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+236	-342	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-363) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -363

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+249	-363	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-528) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -528 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -528

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -528 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+349	-528	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-375) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 85/111 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-283) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+199	-283	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 75/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-173) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -173

Selected market: Over 41.3% / Under 58.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+124	-173	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-176) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+127	-176	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-235) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -235; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+167	-235	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-353) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -353

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+243	-353	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-401) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -401

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+273	-401	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-427) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -427

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+289	-427	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-511) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -511 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -511

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -511 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+339	-511	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-180) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Jackson Under 0.5 (-475) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-159) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -159

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+115	-159	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-223) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+159	-223	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-335) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -335; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+232	-335	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-395) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -395 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -395

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -395 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+270	-395	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-435) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -435

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+294	-435	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-440) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -440

Selected market: Over 23.6% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+297	-440	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Bart Under 0.5 (-483) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -483 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -483

Selected market: Over 22.2% / Under 77.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -483 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+323	-483	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-531) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -531

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+350	-531	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-500) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-287) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -287

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+201	-287	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-334) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -334

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+231	-334	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-235) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+175	-245	-
DK	0.5	+167	-235	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-444) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -444 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -444

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -444 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+299	-444	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-327) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+227	-327	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-650) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.3% / Under 81.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -650 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+414	-650	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-183) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -183

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+132	-183	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/102 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 64/102 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-431) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -431 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -431

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -431 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+291	-431	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 85/111 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-263) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+186	-263	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/103 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-342) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -342

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	-
DK	0.5	+237	-342	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/103 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-297) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -297 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -297 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+208	-297	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-323) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+224	-323	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-510) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -510 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -510

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -510 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+338	-510	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James McCann Under 0.5 (-471) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -471

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+315	-471	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-479) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -479

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+320	-479	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-349) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -349

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+241	-349	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-325) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+226	-325	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-310) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+216	-310	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-279) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+196	-279	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-253) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -253

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+179	-253	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-340) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+235	-340	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 72/106 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-245) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+174	-245	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-448) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -448

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+302	-448	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-309) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -309

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+215	-309	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-386) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -386 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -386 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+264	-386	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-303) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+211	-303	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-324) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -324 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -324

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -324 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [INJ] Angel Genao -- Reassigned to Minors

⚠ Role/Injury: [INJ] Angel Genao -- Reassigned to Minors

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-468) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -468

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-350) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -350 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+242	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 73/107 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+142) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+136	-182	-
DK	0.5	+142	-198	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.81
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/94 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 26/46 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Walks: 51/94 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.81

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-312) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+218	-312	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-305) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+213	-305	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-316) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+220	-316	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-283) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+199	-283	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-528) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -528

Selected market: Over 21.0% / Under 79.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+348	-528	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-388) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -388

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+265	-388	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-268) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+189	-268	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-473) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -473 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -473

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -473 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+316	-473	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-531) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -531 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -531

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -531 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+350	-531	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-332) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-219) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -219

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+156	-219	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-251) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+177	-251	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-176) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	-
DK	0.5	+127	-176	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-423) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -423

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+286	-423	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-505) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -505

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+335	-505	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-690) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -690 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -690

Selected market: Over 17.6% / Under 82.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -690 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+435	-690	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-480) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -480

Selected market: Over 22.3% / Under 77.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+320	-480	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-324) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -324

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+225	-324	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+157) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +157

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+157	-221	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 33/82 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/41 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 33/82 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-326) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -326 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -326

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -326 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+226	-326	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/112 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 80/112 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-149) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+107	-143	-
DK	0.5	+108	-149	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-151) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -151

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+109	-151	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-162) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+117	-162	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-189) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -189

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+135	-189	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-208) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -208

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+149	-208	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-296) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+207	-296	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-303) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+211	-303	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-338) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+234	-338	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-360) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -360

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+248	-360	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-362) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -362

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+249	-362	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-397) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -397 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -397

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -397 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+270	-397	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-421) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -421

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+285	-421	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-420) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -420 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -420

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -420 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+285	-420	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-447) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -447

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+301	-447	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-266) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+187	-266	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-268) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-381) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -381 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -381

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -381 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+261	-381	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-491) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -491 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -491

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -491 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+327	-491	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremiah Jackson Under 0.5 (-431) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -431

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+291	-431	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-281) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-428) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -428 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -428

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -428 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+289	-428	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-457) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -457

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+307	-457	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-283) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+198	-283	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-423) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -423 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -423

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -423 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+287	-423	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-512) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -512 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -512

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -512 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+339	-512	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-571) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -571 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -571

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -571 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+373	-571	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-244) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -244

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+173	-244	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 77/112 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-212) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -212

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+151	-212	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-273) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	-
DK	0.5	+192	-273	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/110 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-400) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+272	-400	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 70/110 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-306) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 74/106 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-368) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+253	-368	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+255	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/95 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 60/95 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-157) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -157

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+114	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/107 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/56 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 59/107 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.58

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-237) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+168	-237	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 (-104) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 -104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-104	-129	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	-104	-132	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 38/93 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/48 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 17/45 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 38/93 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.48

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-300) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+210	-300	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/111 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 78/111 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-166) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -166

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+120	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-185) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+133	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-216) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+154	-216	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-276) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+194	-276	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-325) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+226	-325	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-347) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+240	-347	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-374) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -374

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+256	-374	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-392) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -392

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+267	-392	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-422) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+286	-422	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-527) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -527

Selected market: Over 21.0% / Under 79.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+348	-527	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-185) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 (+146) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +146

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+146	-204	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.125
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/90 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/48 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 16/42 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 35/90 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-222) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+158	-222	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 31/54 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 68/110 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-259) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+183	-259	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/110 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 64/110 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-248) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+175	-248	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/53 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 63/104 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+163) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +163

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+163	-229	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 16/53 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 42/105 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-226) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+167	-230	-
DK	0.5	+161	-226	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 77/108 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Over 0.5 (+116) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +116

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+116	-160	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/58 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 18/54 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 43/112 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-273) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -273 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -273 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+192	-273	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/113 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/59 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 70/113 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-249) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+176	-249	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/111 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 30/54 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 63/111 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (+154) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +154

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+154	-216	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/82 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/42 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 13/40 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 29/82 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-228) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+162	-228	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/102 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 65/102 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-148) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	-
DK	0.5	+107	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/47 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/109 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-190) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+136	-190	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/94 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/40 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 57/94 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (+256) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +256 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +256

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+256	-373	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/87 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/42 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 14/45 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 35/87 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 26.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-257) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+182	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 73/113 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 32/54 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 73/113 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-279) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+183	-260	-
DK	0.5	+196	-279	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 64/111 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 64/111 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-252) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -252

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+178	-252	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 71/114 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/61 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 71/114 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-162) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+117	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 70/106 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-220) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+157	-220	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/108 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 27/53 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 66/108 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-236) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+168	-236	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 69/113 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-232) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+165	-232	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .821
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/89 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 29/46 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 57/89 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+187) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +187 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +187

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+187	-265	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/108 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/52 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 40/108 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 (+133) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +133

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+133	-185	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 38/101 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/48 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 18/53 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 38/101 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+167) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +167

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+167	-235	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/55 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 20/56 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 41/111 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-243) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+172	-243	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/57 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 63/115 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Over 0.5 (+122) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +122

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	-
DK	0.5	+122	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/113 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/57 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 22/56 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 41/113 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-246) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+174	-246	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/109 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/55 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 63/109 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-170) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+123	-170	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/110 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/53 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 32/57 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 60/110 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+183) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +183 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +183

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +183 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+183	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 11 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .990
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 44/114 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/57 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 44/114 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-195) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+136	-182	-
DK	0.5	+140	-195	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/112 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 73/112 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Over 0.5 (+132) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+132	-184	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/96 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/52 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 19/44 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 36/96 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-195) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+140	-195	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 32/54 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 57/109 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 244 play(s) (B 4 | C 234 | D 6)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 470.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 470.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.732 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/58 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 80/113 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.34

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 471% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Foscue Over 0.5 (-155) diff 286.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 286.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 286% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-165) diff 219.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/109 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 65/109 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.60

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-185) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+180) diff 470.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 470.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.732 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/58 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 80/113 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.34

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 471% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-175) diff 357.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 357.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 77/109 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.78

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 358% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 306.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 306.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 84/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/56 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 40/54 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 84/110 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.93

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 307% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 0.5 (-175) diff 296.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 296.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/111 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/59 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 42/52 over 0.5 (81%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 82/111 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.91

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 297% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-118) diff 286.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-118	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 286.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 286% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 0.5 (-160) diff 285.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+131	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 285.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.596 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 33/52 over 0.5 (64%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter TB: 63/104 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.97

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 (-175) diff 284.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 284.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.623 (114 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 72/106 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.92

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 (-175) diff 284.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 284.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.623 (114 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 72/106 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.92

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Sullivan Over 0.5 (+150) diff 237.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 237.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 237% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edouard Julien Over 0.5 (+160) diff 237.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 237.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 237% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 (-165) diff 231.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+131	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 231.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.380 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/57 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 78/113 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.72

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-155) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-135) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-120) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 0.5 (-145) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 (-165) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 (-185) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 0.5 (-105) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (+105) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	+107	-143	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 38.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Flores Over 0.5 (-105) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-103	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (+160) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 36.6% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-140) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Tena Over 0.5 (-160) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-135) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-135) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-155) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-150	+112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-140) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-137	+106	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-175) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-200) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+147	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-200	+148	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 0.5 (-185) diff 218.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.438 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/57 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 72/111 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.68

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddys Leonard Over 0.5 (-155) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (-120) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Buddy Kennedy Over 0.5 (-120) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (-105) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	-
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 0.5 (-185) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 -185; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.297 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 20 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 5.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.137
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/53 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 31/55 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 71/108 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.43

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cameron Cauley Over 0.5 (-150) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 0.5 (-185) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (-135) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Bart Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-160) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-160) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-175) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 0.5 (-185) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (-175) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.526 (140 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 77/115 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.63

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 0.5 (-190) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-137	+106	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — John Rave Over 0.5 (-120) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-190) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-189	+143	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 0.5 (+200) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-160) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-165	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (-190) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-179	+137	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-140) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (-210) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 63.3% / Under 36.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-200	+152	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-175) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-135) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-125) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 (-155) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+126	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-125) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brendan Donovan Over 0.5 (-175) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-115) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-175) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+142	-
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-160) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-190) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 0.5 (-190) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+128	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 0.5 (-155) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-175) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+129	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-125) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-115) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-111	-116	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ali Sanchez Over 0.5 (+280) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +280

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-185) diff 206.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 61/106 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.69

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 61/106 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.69

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-125) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremiah Jackson Over 0.5 (-156) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (-125) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-120	-108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-135) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 (-145) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (-125) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Franklin Over 0.5 (-130) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-185) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-179	+136	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-185) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler O'Neill Over 0.5 (-155) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+114	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-115) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-101	-128	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 (-160) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-145) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-185) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James McCann Over 0.5 (-135) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-185) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+131	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-160) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jase Bowen Over 0.5 (-115) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (+170) diff 203.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.577 (35 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .476
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/102 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 62/102 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.70

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Petey Halpin Over 0.5 (-135) diff 197.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 197.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 0.5 (-140) diff 197.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [INJ] Angel Genao -- Reassigned to Minors

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: [INJ] Angel Genao -- Reassigned to Minors

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 197.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 (-165) diff 195.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 195.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/53 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 73/109 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 195.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 195.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 196% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 0.5 (-160) diff 180.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.290 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 66/112 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 66/112 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-175) diff 180.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/114 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 (-200) diff 176.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-200	+148	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.415 (111 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 38/55 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 73/109 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 176.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 176% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-190) diff 175.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-179	+137	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 175.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/106 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/49 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 64/106 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 175.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 175.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 175% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (+180) diff 167.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.543 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .933
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/95 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 25/46 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 49/95 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 167.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 168% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-190) diff 161.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 161.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.216 (32 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 39/55 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 77/109 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 161.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 161.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 162% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-210) diff 154.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 63.3% / Under 36.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+147	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-200	+148	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 154.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 41/54 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 73/107 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 154.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 154.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-150) diff 151.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+114	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 59/112 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 151.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 151.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-190) diff 145.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.279 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/56 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 67/111 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-175) diff 145.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.212 (11 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/108 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/52 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 68/108 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (-160) diff 140.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.201 (64 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/105 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 58/105 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 140.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 140.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-185) diff 130.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 32/51 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 66/106 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 130.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 130.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-175) diff 127.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.229 (18 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/49 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 60/102 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-130) diff 121.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 121.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (33 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/60 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 70/112 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 121.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 121.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Over 0.5 (-165) diff 100.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.00 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 100.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.355 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/54 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 54/103 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 100.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.50 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 100.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.50 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-165) diff 81.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.199 (45 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 54/109 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 81.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 81.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-155) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.85
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.215 (40 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 55/106 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+120) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.419 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/111 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter TB: 49/111 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+119) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.537 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/113 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 60/113 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-111) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 23 PA | 3/19 | HR 1 | K% 21.7% | BB% 17.4% | OPS .620
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/108 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 46/108 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+115) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (58 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 47/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+100) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.673 (29 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/93 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/93 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+112) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.473 (68 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/109 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 49/109 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+109) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-186) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 70/105 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-162) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-156	+121	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	-
DK	1.5	-162	+122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/110 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 47/110 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+145) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (+118) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (-119) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-108	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Fortes Over 1.5 (+121) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-104) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+121) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.300 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 37/90 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 37/90 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-116) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-114	-114	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/95 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 45/95 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-101) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-145	Recommended
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/106 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 51/106 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+127) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/105 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+121) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (60 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.94

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-200) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.219 (41 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 72/106 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+114) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.441 (75 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/113 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 54/113 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-102) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.438 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 18 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .863
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 41/111 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+111) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.381 (43 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 42/109 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-175) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.262 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 73/110 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-101) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.253 (44 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 17 PA | 4/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.9% | BB% 17.6% | OPS .855
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/114 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 47/114 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+110) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.463 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/101 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 45/101 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-187) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-182	Recommended
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.258 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 77/108 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+111) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.405 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .891
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 43/109 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-175) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.449 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/105 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/54 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 76/105 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+112) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/111 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 43/111 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+123) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (64 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+128) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.515 (53 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+125) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/114 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 47/114 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-125) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.243 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/102 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 40/102 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-174) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/105 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 68/105 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+126) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.485 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/99 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 40/99 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-190) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	Recommended
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/94 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/40 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 66/94 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-195) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/105 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 60/105 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+116) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.505 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .821
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 32/89 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/43 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 17/46 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 32/89 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+112) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.390 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-186) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+145	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/92 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/46 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 28/46 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 57/92 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+117) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/104 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 45/104 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-114) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter TB: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+130) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/79 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/40 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 31/79 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+122) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.539 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/110 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 42/110 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-104) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-108) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Beck Over 1.5 (+105) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+111) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.349 (19 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 42/105 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+104) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.325 (63 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+112) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/111 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 43/111 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+110) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.808 (22 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/94 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 35/94 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+106) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.470 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 44/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+105) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.289 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/113 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 42/113 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+106) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.314 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 41/111 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+140) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.670 (35 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/109 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 37/109 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (+129) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.501 (21 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 40/106 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-111) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (74 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Under 1.5 (-200) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-176	+132	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/82 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/42 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 26/40 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 51/82 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+129) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.584 (41 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 38/103 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 38/103 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-155) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.469 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 69/106 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-210) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
Caesars	1.5	+147	-200	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.311 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/93 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 24/42 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 53/93 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+135) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+148	-200	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+141) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+139) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+134) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-196) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 73/114 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+117) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+135) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leo Jimenez Over 1.5 (+161) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +161

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-152) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/82 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/41 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 26/41 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 51/82 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-161) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 19 PA | 5/18 | HR 0 | K% 21.1% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .760
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 74/109 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+123) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/113 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 46/113 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+117) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.264 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/110 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 42/110 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-193) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 75/113 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+144) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/112 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 41/112 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+109) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.395 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/110 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 45/110 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+129) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-199) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+148	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 11 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .990
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 75/114 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+143) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-182	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+124) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+124	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+136) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (+120) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-158) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	Recommended
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.148 (12 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .970
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 68/106 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 68/106 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-189) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	0.5	-189	+143	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (85 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/109 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 66/109 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Under 1.5 (-200) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +142; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+142	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.422 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/108 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 67/108 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+118) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+128) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+129) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+138) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+155) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+155	-208	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/96 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 44/96 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+140) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+139) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-112) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-112	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.281 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 40/106 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.32

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+132) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/106 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/51 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 41/106 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Under 1.5 (-185) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.263 (83 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 70/109 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+135) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+130) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+134) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.343 (39 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 31/84 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/43 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 31/84 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-192) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.089 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/109 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 65/109 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+138) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 40/108 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 40/108 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-154) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	Recommended
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 57/109 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-157) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-190) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-159) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	Recommended
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 (-110) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.492 (12 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/98 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/50 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 13/48 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 26/98 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.21

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+127) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.544 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/113 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/58 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 38/113 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Under 1.5 (-190) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/107 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/56 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 61/107 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-150) diff 197.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 (-150) diff 197.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-155) diff 180.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/114 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (-110) diff 167.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.223 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 62/112 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 168% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-200) diff 135.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 135.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 135.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-140) diff 133.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 133.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/53 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 53/102 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 133.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-118) edge 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5	-120	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	5	-130	+100	-
MyBookie	5	-113	-108	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
FanDuel	5.5	-110	-118	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.70
Jake Irvin xFIP 4.36
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)
Away SP: Jake Irvin (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

▸ Pitcher Outs — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-157) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	17.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-148	+110	-
DK	17.5	-157	+118	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.991 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.63 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .315 | OPS .814
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.5%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.6%, L7 8.2%, season 8.9%, BVP 5.3%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.10 | Season Avg 17.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +2.05 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Burke Over 17.5 (-149) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-145	+105	-
BetOnline	17.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-141	+106	-
DK	17.5	-149	+112	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.712 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.65 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .405
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.0%, L7 20.6%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 7.0%, L7 9.3%, season 8.1%, BVP 0.0%/18 PA (adj 0.88x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 16.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Noah Cameron Over 17.5 (-145) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-140	+100	-
BetOnline	17.5	-145	+105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-139	+105	-
DK	17.5	-145	+109	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.976 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.08 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 93 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.2%, L7 17.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 26.9%/93 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.6%, L7 7.2%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.3%/93 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Over 17.5 (-208) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -188 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -208

Selected market: Over 63.3% / Under 36.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.57 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -188 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 18 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-210	+150	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-200	+150	-
Caesars	17.5	-197	+146	-
DK	17.5	-208	+155	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-188	+140	Recommended
Fanatics	17.5	-210	+145	-
BetOnline	18	-130	-110	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.854999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.62 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.3% / under 36.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.57 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 43 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 2.3% | AVG .286 | OPS .636
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.3%, L7 19.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.9%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.7%, L7 9.7%, season 9.4%, BVP 2.3%/43 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Under 17.5 (-117) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 17.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 17.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-125	-
BetOnline	17.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-112	-120	-
DK	17.5	-113	-117	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-110	-120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.237000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.12 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 79 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .178 | OPS .514
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.8%, L7 21.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 30.4%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.8%, L7 12.1%, season 10.7%, BVP 6.3%/79 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 16.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Over 17.5 (-190) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.3% / Under 38.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.57 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 18 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-210	+150	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	-
Caesars	17.5	-185	+130	-
DK	17.5	-190	+142	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+134	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-185	+130	-
BetOnline	18	-120	-120	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.65 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.37 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.3% / under 38.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.57 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .163 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 8.9%, L7 7.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 9.1%/55 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 17.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Over 17.5 (-159) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-165	+120	-
DK	17.5	-159	+120	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-154	+116	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.505 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.39 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 31 PA | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.012
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 25.1%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 32.3%/31 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 12.6%, L7 6.5%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/31 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 16.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 6.5 (+100) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	6.5	-140	+100	-
DK	6.5	-132	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	6.5	-140	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.6 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 13.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.11x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 8 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .821
Opponent K profile: composite 15.7%, split 15.8%, L7 19.4%, season 19.1%, top-6 16.2%, BVP 0.0%/8 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.2% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-120) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .163 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-160) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+121	-160	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.4% / under 57.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 31 PA | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.012
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 25.1%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 32.3%/31 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Carson Whisenhunt Under 5.5 (-157) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.12 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.54, BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Carson Whisenhunt: 6 PA | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 21.5%, L7 25.9%, season 22.7%, top-6 21.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.25 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/4 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andre Pallante Under 5.5 (-123) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-108	-123	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 57 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .275 | OPS .978
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.7%, L7 24.1%, season 24.3%, BVP 22.8%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Elder Under 5.5 (-142) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+107	-142	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 51 PA | K% 15.7% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .295 | OPS .835
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.1%, L7 18.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.7%/51 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-141) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+106	-141	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .315 | OPS .814
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.5%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Cameron Under 5.5 (-137) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.28, BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 93 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.2%, L7 17.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 26.9%/93 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Dean Kremer Under 5.5 (-140) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+106	-140	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.4% / under 54.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .288 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 24.1%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3%, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.43 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/7 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 17 play(s) (C 17)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Rhett Lowder Over 1.5 (-104) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.006257896327987 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.9 outs/5.3 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.8%, L7 22.5%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 14.2%, L7 6.5%, season 8.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kyle Harrison Under 1.5 (-172) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.1515361590738362 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 4.6 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 25 PA | K% 48.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .532
Opponent K profile: composite 27.1%, split 24.6%, L7 24.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 48.0%/25 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 7.9%, L7 8.9%, season 9.2%, BVP 4.0%/25 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Mitch Bratt Over 1.5 (+100) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8122667625685824 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 4.2 IP (BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.7%, L7 19.7%, season 22.1% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.1%, L7 7.3%, season 9.1% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/5 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jake Irvin Over 1.5 (+110) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7928046844402332 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.4 IP (BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 174 PA | K% 13.2% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .272 | OPS .766
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.6%, L7 17.0%, season 23.4%, BVP 13.2%/174 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.7%, L7 10.1%, season 8.0%, BVP 5.8%/174 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 (-119) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.209914492878173 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.2 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 8 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .821
Opponent K profile: composite 15.7%, split 15.8%, L7 19.4%, season 19.1%, top-6 16.2%, BVP 0.0%/8 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.2%, L7 5.4%, season 8.7%, BVP 12.5%/8 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.2% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andrew Painter Over 1.5 (+103) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.788297810485239 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .692
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 11.5%, L7 10.2%, season 9.1% (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bryan Woo Under 1.5 (-148) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2300040057931934 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.4 IP (BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 43 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 2.3% | AVG .286 | OPS .636
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.3%, L7 19.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.9%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.7%, L7 9.7%, season 9.4%, BVP 2.3%/43 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andre Pallante Over 1.5 (-156) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.0% / Under 43.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-156	+118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.712277153140053 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.4 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 57 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .275 | OPS .978
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.7%, L7 24.1%, season 24.3%, BVP 22.8%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 11.4%, L7 6.5%, season 9.7%, BVP 10.5%/57 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Casey Mize Under 1.5 (-112) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2959307274201628 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.1 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 40 PA | K% 17.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .182 | OPS .578
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 18.4%, L7 18.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 17.5%/40 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.7%, L7 7.8%, season 8.7%, BVP 12.5%/40 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tanner Bibee Over 1.5 (-107) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6956810539051428 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .163 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 8.9%, L7 7.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 9.1%/55 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Will Warren Over 1.5 (+106) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6785644573759833 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 25 PA | K% 32.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .136 | OPS .376
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 20.4%, BVP 32.0%/25 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 8.7%, L7 9.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Dean Kremer Over 1.5 (+117) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6625545517352698 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .288 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 24.1%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3%, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.3%, L7 7.0%, season 8.3%, BVP 7.1%/56 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.57 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/7 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sonny Gray Over 1.5 (-132) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5902876400582349 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.6 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .315 | OPS .814
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.5%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.6%, L7 8.2%, season 8.9%, BVP 5.3%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sean Burke Over 1.5 (-112) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.5879004397464116 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: 0.88x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .405
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.0%, L7 20.6%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 7.0%, L7 9.3%, season 8.1%, BVP 0.0%/18 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-174) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5670306765358892 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 79 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .178 | OPS .514
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.8%, L7 21.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 30.4%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.8%, L7 12.1%, season 10.7%, BVP 6.3%/79 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Trevor Rogers Over 1.5 (+124) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5602945057321982 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.5 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 31 PA | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.012
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 25.1%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 32.3%/31 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 12.6%, L7 6.5%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/31 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Lopez Over 2.5 (-103) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.5656163746566047 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.53 over 4.0 IP (BB% 12.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.22x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 22.0%, L7 28.4%, season 25.2% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 12.2%, split 13.2%, L7 13.4%, season 9.7% (adj 1.22x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 21 play(s) (C 21)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cody Bradford Over 1.5 (-105) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.7%, L7 16.6%, season 20.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Will Warren Over 1.5 (-175) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-175	+131	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-185	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.77, ERA 4.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 25 PA | K% 32.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .136 | OPS .376
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 20.4%, BVP 32.0%/25 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (-102) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-135	-
DK	2.5	-102	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.17 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.70, ERA 7.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .692
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Carson Whisenhunt Over 2.5 (-121) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-121	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.71 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.45, ERA 5.57)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Carson Whisenhunt: 6 PA | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 21.5%, L7 25.9%, season 22.7%, top-6 21.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Anderson Under 1.5 (-150) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.68 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 3.57, ERA 4.51)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 1.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 9.5 outs/3.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Anderson: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .357 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.6%, L7 23.3%, season 23.0% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 32/40 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Under 2.5 (-151) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
DK	2.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.59 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.58, ERA 4.25)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 46 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .171 | OPS .651
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.1%, L7 24.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 30.4%/46 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-131) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.38 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.63, ERA 3.16)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .315 | OPS .814
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.5%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andre Pallante Under 2.5 (-103) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-105	-
DK	2.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.75 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.00, ERA 3.64)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 57 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .275 | OPS .978
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.7%, L7 24.1%, season 24.3%, BVP 22.8%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Under 2.5 (-160) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	-
DK	2.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.05 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.39, ERA 3.61)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 31 PA | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.012
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 25.1%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 32.3%/31 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Under 2.5 (+103) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-137	+103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.07 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 5.48, ERA 4.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 22.0%, L7 28.4%, season 25.2% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-138) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+104	-138	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.53 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.04, ERA 2.83)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 64 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .362 | OPS 1.096
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.8%, L7 18.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 15.6%/64 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Over 2.5 (-106) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.98 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.02, ERA 6.08)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .288 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 24.1%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3%, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.71 | Season Avg 3.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/7 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Cameron Over 2.5 (-104) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.08, ERA 4.27)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 93 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.2%, L7 17.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 26.9%/93 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mitch Bratt Under 2.5 (-134) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+101	-134	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.07 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.85, ERA 4.82)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.7%, L7 19.7%, season 22.1% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Rhett Lowder Over 2.5 (-104) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.52 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.75, ERA 5.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.9 outs/5.3 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.8%, L7 22.5%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Over 2.5 (-101) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 3.98)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .163 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Elder Under 2.5 (-133) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+100	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.12, ERA 4.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 51 PA | K% 15.7% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .295 | OPS .835
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.1%, L7 18.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.7%/51 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.17 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-122) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	-108	-122	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 3.4 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 2.9% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.52 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.87, ERA 4.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.6% / under 51.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 8 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .821
Opponent K profile: composite 15.7%, split 15.8%, L7 19.4%, season 19.1%, top-6 16.2%, BVP 0.0%/8 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.2% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Martinez Under 2.5 (+124) Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +124

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-165	+124	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.68, ERA 2.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 24 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .432
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 29.2%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Irvin Under 2.5 (-115) Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-120	-
DK	2.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.23 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.36, ERA 5.66)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 174 PA | K% 13.2% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .272 | OPS .766
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.6%, L7 17.0%, season 23.4%, BVP 13.2%/174 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Harrison Under 1.5 (-142) Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.95 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.13, ERA 3.31)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 25 PA | K% 48.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .532
Opponent K profile: composite 27.1%, split 24.6%, L7 24.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 48.0%/25 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 19 play(s) (C 19)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-258) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+190	-258	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-274) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+201	-274	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.84 (AVG 0.227)
Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 19 PA | 5/18 | HR 0 | K% 21.1% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .760
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.84
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter Hits: 84/109 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Cole Carrigg Under 1.5 (-234) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-222	-
DK	1.5	+173	-234	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Beck Under 1.5 (-261) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+192	-261	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-261) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +195; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+192	-261	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.241)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.316 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 17/40 (42%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 82/111 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 82/111 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-205) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
DK	1.5	+153	-205	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.218 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 10/46 (22%) | L5 7/23 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/99 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 39/49 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 70/99 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-265) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+195	-265	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.256)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.381 (21 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/113 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/58 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 81/113 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 1.5 (-225) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+167	-225	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Fortes Under 1.5 (-251) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-181) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.284)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.198 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 11/37 (30%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 74/102 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-252) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -252

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +185; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+185	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Recommended
DK	1.5	+185	-252	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.305)
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 13/40 (32%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/45 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 70/104 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-222) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -222

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+165	-222	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.321 (74 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Recent form: L10 9/40 (22%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/112 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 42/57 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 81/112 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-218) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -218 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -218

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -218 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+162	-218	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.252)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 18 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .863
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 15/42 (36%) | L5 9/20 (45%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/111 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 82/111 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-228) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -228

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+169	-228	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Recent form: L10 9/42 (21%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/95 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 67/95 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 (-148) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-500	+320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.283 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 12/43 (28%) | L5 7/23 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/110 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 78/110 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-163) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-500	+320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.299)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.260 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Recent form: L10 15/37 (40%) | L5 9/19 (47%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 30/49 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 70/106 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-149) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +340; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-550	+340	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.284)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.352 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter Hits: 80/113 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-232) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -232

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
DK	1.5	+172	-232	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.29 (AVG 0.323)
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328 (82 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter Hits: 66/110 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-207) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -204 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -204 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Recommended
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.325)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 16/43 (37%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/106 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/50 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 64/106 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.5 8.5 (-104) edge 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 8 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -104

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8.5

Line distribution: 8.5 at 7 books | 8 at 3 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 8 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	8	-122	-	-
BetUS	8	-120	-	-
LowVig	8	-120	-	Recommended
BetMGM	8.5	-102	-	-
BetRivers	8.5	-103	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-105	-	-
DK	8.5	-104	-	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-105	-	-
MyBookie	8.5	-105	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+100	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 10.0 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Cody Bradford (LHP) | opp wRC+ 92 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Carson Whisenhunt (LHP) | opp wRC+ 120 vs LHP (tough)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 100)
San Francisco Giants confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 10.0
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Home SP (Cody Bradford) stats unavailable — used league avg
Carson Whisenhunt small sample (19 IP) — stats 23% actual / 77% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-117) edge 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -117

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 8 books | 7.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7	-125	-	-
BetOnline	7	-115	-	-
BetUS	7	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-120	-	-
DK	7	-117	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-120	-	-
LowVig	7	-113	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7	-122	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	+106	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+110	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Kyle Harrison (LHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Kyle Harrison elite xFIP (3.13)
Paul Skenes elite xFIP (3.12)

▸ F5 ML — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Washington Nationals (+135) edge 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +145 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +135

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +145 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.70
Jake Irvin xFIP 4.36
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)
Away SP: Jake Irvin (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — San Francisco Giants (+154) edge 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (F5) | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS +155 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +154

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetUS +155 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Home SP TBD
Carson Whisenhunt xFIP 4.45
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 106 (team 100)
San Francisco Giants confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 105 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cody Bradford (LHP)
Away SP: Carson Whisenhunt (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Detroit Tigers (+124) edge 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +135 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +124

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +135 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER)
Bryan Woo xFIP 3.62
Drew Anderson xFIP 3.57
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 95)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)
Away SP: Drew Anderson (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

▸ NRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake NRFI — NRFI (+125) edge 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +125

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.487
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0328 after 0.0100 buffer
Jake Irvin / Andrew Painter announced and matched

▸ YRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake YRFI — YRFI (+130) edge 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +130

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0488 after 0.0100 buffer
Paul Skenes / Kyle Harrison announced and matched

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Washington Nationals (+174) edge 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +174 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +174

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +174 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
Underdog ML value — Washington Nationals at +174 with 15.2% edge (EV $+40.03/$100)
Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Jake Irvin (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 51%, bullpen 49%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Weather: Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
Stats within normal range
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 70.9% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 17.4% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds -127 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Batter HR — 228 play(s) (C 228)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 98.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0095
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/105 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 104/105 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 98.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0094
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.215 (40 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/106 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 105/106 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James McCann Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ali Sanchez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — John Rave Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 10.6% / Under 89.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-475) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Bart Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Buddy Kennedy Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddys Leonard Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-500) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-900) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Sullivan Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Beck Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0377
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/106 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 102/106 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 92.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.281 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/106 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/49 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 106/106 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-650) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0377
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/106 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/50 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 102/106 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 91.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-500) diff 91.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 91.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 91.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0550
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.199 (45 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 103/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0550
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.415 (111 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.219 (41 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/106 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/106 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 89.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0526
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 11 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .990
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 108/114 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 108/114 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (33 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/112 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/60 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 105/112 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0588
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.229 (18 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/102 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 96/102 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 87.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0645
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.311 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 87/93 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 87/93 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0784
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/102 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/102 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0748
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.262 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (74 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/112 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 105/112 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.216 (32 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/109 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 100/109 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/104 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 97/104 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0952
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/105 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 95/105 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 84.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0870
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/92 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 84/92 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 83.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.297 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 20 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 5.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.137
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/108 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/108 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.258 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/108 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/108 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0857
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.449 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/105 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 97/105 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0849
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.469 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0926
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.422 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-900) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1009
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.089 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/109 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/109 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1048
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/105 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 95/105 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0973
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.544 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1098
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 74/82 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 74/82 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1062
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/113 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/113 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/99 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 89/99 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-900) diff 77.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1161
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/112 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/112 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1228
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/114 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/114 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1228
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/114 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/114 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1228
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/114 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/114 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 85/96 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1220
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 73/82 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 73/82 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1171
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/111 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/111 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-600) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1277
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/94 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 83/94 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1284
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (85 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1321
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1101
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.670 (35 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/109 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 98/109 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.212 (11 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/108 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/108 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 19 PA | 5/18 | HR 0 | K% 21.1% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .760
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-900) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.526 (140 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1495
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.201 (64 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/105 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/105 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-900) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.1% / Under 84.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1019
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (58 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-600) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1239
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.289 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/113 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 102/113 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.390 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-700) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.395 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 95/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.290 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-500) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.438 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1263
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.543 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .933
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/95 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 83/95 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.263 (83 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/109 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 94/109 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-900) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1743
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-650) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1743
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 70.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1368
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/95 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 83/95 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1238
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/105 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 93/105 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1509
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.148 (12 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .970
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/106 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 90/106 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-550) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1273
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/110 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/110 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-900) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.470 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1772
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 67/79 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 67/79 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1604
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/106 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 90/106 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1553
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.584 (41 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-700) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.501 (21 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/106 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 91/106 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1607
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/112 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 95/112 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1681
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.380 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/113 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 95/113 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1786
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.223 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/112 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 93/112 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.438 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 18 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .863
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1593
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.441 (75 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/113 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 97/113 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.264 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-650) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.405 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .891
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-650) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1651
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 92/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-650) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.492 (12 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-700) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.539 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1471
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.243 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1961
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.577 (35 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .476
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/102 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 82/102 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-600) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1714
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.349 (19 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/105 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/105 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1869
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (64 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/107 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 89/107 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-550) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1798
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.505 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .821
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/89 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 76/89 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-500) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2035
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/60 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 90/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-475) diff 62.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1683
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.463 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/101 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 86/101 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-600) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1915
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.808 (22 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 77/94 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 77/94 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-500) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.325 (63 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 90/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-550) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/114 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 93/114 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-475) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1935
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.673 (29 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/93 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 76/93 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-600) diff 57.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2262
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.343 (39 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/84 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/43 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 66/84 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-600) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1743
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.381 (43 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-550) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2212
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.515 (53 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/104 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 82/104 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2358
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/106 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 82/106 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-550) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2358
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/106 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 82/106 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-550) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2072
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.314 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/111 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 90/111 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2170
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.623 (114 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-750) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2170
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.623 (114 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2264
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (60 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-390) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2105
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.253 (44 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 17 PA | 4/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.9% | BB% 17.6% | OPS .855
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/114 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 91/114 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-550) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2162
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2308
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.596 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/104 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 83/104 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-750) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.300 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/90 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 71/90 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-600) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2523
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.419 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 85/111 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-550) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2743
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.537 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/113 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 85/113 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-500) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2844
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.473 (68 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/47 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 79/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-275) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3056
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 23 PA | 3/19 | HR 1 | K% 21.7% | BB% 17.4% | OPS .620
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/108 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 80/108 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-300) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2832
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.402 (17 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/113 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 85/113 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3097
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.732 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 83/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.380/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.380/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	Total	Over 8.5	DK	-104	48.7%	69.4%	+20.7%	$+36.16	9	Bet on DK
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-117	51.5%	70.5%	+18.9%	$+30.67	9	Bet on DK
C	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Moneyline	Washington Nationals	DK	+174	35.9%	51.1%	+15.2%	$+40.03	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Over 8.5 — San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (Total) +20.7%

[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 10.0 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Cody Bradford (LHP) | opp wRC+ 92 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Carson Whisenhunt (LHP) | opp wRC+ 120 vs LHP (tough)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 100)
San Francisco Giants confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 10.0
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Home SP (Cody Bradford) stats unavailable — used league avg
Carson Whisenhunt small sample (19 IP) — stats 23% actual / 77% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.0 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +18.9%

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Kyle Harrison (LHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Kyle Harrison elite xFIP (3.13)
Paul Skenes elite xFIP (3.12)

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (Moneyline) +15.2%

[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
Underdog ML value — Washington Nationals at +174 with 15.2% edge (EV $+40.03/$100)
Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Jake Irvin (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 51%, bullpen 49%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Weather: Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
Stats within normal range
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 70.9% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 17.4% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds -127 within price guard (-160 floor)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	DK	+135	40.1%	51.3%	+11.3%	$+20.63	9	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (F5)	2:36 PM	F5 ML	San Francisco Giants	DK	+154	37.1%	47.8%	+10.7%	$+21.38	9	Bet on DK
B	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-118	50.8%	59.3%	+8.5%	$+9.58	6	Bet on DK
C	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 ML	Detroit Tigers	DK	+124	42.0%	50.1%	+8.1%	$+12.32	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (4 play(s))

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 ML) +11.3%

[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.70
Jake Irvin xFIP 4.36
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)
Away SP: Jake Irvin (RHP)

C San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (F5) (F5 ML) +10.7%

[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Home SP TBD
Carson Whisenhunt xFIP 4.45
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 106 (team 100)
San Francisco Giants confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 105 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cody Bradford (LHP)
Away SP: Carson Whisenhunt (LHP)

B Under 5.5 — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 Total) +8.5%

[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.70
Jake Irvin xFIP 4.36
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk
Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)
Away SP: Jake Irvin (RHP)

C Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners (F5) (F5 ML) +8.1%

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER)
Bryan Woo xFIP 3.62
Drew Anderson xFIP 3.57
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 95)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)
Away SP: Drew Anderson (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers

2:36 PM · decision fi-93c7e87273b0bf0e

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 48.6% / YRFI 51.4%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Carson Whisenhunt · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cody Bradford · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.486
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Carson Whisenhunt / Cody Bradford announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.486

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCarson Whisenhunt / Cody Bradford announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-118	-117	50.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies

3:11 PM · decision fi-2345b831307c7e70

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 44.8% / YRFI 55.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Nick Martinez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tomoyuki Sugano · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.448
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Nick Martinez / Tomoyuki Sugano announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.448

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSNick Martinez / Tomoyuki Sugano announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+120	-155	42.8%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+125	-167	41.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+136	-174	40.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+120	-150	43.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles

6:36 PM · decision fi-52e1c5abee8b9341

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.2% / YRFI 48.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Reid Detmers · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Trevor Rogers · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Reid Detmers / Trevor Rogers announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSReid Detmers / Trevor Rogers announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-118	-108	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds

6:40 PM · decision fi-fac963b3503685cd

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 48.7% / YRFI 51.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jacob Lopez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Rhett Lowder · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.487
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jacob Lopez / Rhett Lowder announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.487

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJacob Lopez / Rhett Lowder announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+100	-125	47.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-104	-129	47.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians

6:40 PM · decision fi-e4df79095e5699ea

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.4% / YRFI 48.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Christian Scott · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tanner Bibee · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Christian Scott / Tanner Bibee announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSChristian Scott / Tanner Bibee announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-130	-103	52.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-146	+114	55.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:41 PM · decision fi-bedaa9eb5893495b

NRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

48.7%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Executable Price

BetOnline +125

Raw / Effective Edge

+4.3% / +3.3%

Away starter: Jake Irvin · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Andrew Painter · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.487
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0328 after 0.0100 buffer
Jake Irvin / Andrew Painter announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 4 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.487

Executable price · PASSGrade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0328 after 0.0100 buffer

Starter status · PASSJake Irvin / Andrew Painter announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+125	-167	41.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+118	-150	43.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees

7:06 PM · decision fi-245754de86d5430c

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.3% / YRFI 49.7%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Andre Pallante · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Will Warren · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.503
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Andre Pallante / Will Warren announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.503

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSAndre Pallante / Will Warren announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-115	-110	50.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-111	-119	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-107	-124	48.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

7:11 PM · decision fi-b0da073729f0e40f

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.6% / YRFI 49.4%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Sean Burke · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Sonny Gray · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sean Burke / Sonny Gray announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSean Burke / Sonny Gray announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-143	+108	55.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-cfdd00969d8feb11

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.8% / YRFI 49.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Eury Pérez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bryce Elder · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Eury Pérez / Bryce Elder announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSEury Pérez / Bryce Elder announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-118	-110	50.8%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

7:40 PM · decision fi-94abc0aea48f2656

YRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Executable Price

BetOnline +130

Raw / Effective Edge

+5.9% / +4.9%

Away starter: Paul Skenes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kyle Harrison · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0488 after 0.0100 buffer
Paul Skenes / Kyle Harrison announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 5 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · PASSGrade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0488 after 0.0100 buffer

Starter status · PASSPaul Skenes / Kyle Harrison announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-150	+115	56.3%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-175	+130	59.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-150	+112	56.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-162	+126	58.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-145	+115	56.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals

7:41 PM · decision fi-f6743cb8154c773d

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.8% / YRFI 50.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Dean Kremer · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Noah Cameron · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Dean Kremer / Noah Cameron announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDean Kremer / Noah Cameron announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-115	49.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-108	-118	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:41 PM · decision fi-7fe56acdd2d0b980

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 48.7% / YRFI 51.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Casey Mize · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Mitch Bratt · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.487
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Casey Mize / Mitch Bratt announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.487

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCasey Mize / Mitch Bratt announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-105	-120	48.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-104	-129	47.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners

9:41 PM · decision fi-32ac68e55f61ef28

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.5% / YRFI 48.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Drew Anderson · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bryan Woo · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T18:01:50.791250Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Drew Anderson / Bryan Woo announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.515

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDrew Anderson / Bryan Woo announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-129	-104	52.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 228 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=228
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	3	Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	theScore Bet	+210	-	40.9%	30.1%	+10.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	38.5%	26.4%	+12.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Bryce Elder (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	38.4%	20.8%	+17.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Andrew Painter (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	37.8%	19.7%	+18.0%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+190	-	36.5%	32.0%	+4.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+325	-	36.4%	22.0%	+14.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Eury Pérez (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	36.1%	20.8%	+15.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	35.8%	23.2%	+12.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	-	Rhett Lowder (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	35.2%	23.2%	+12.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Bleday	Cincinnati Reds	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	34.7%	19.7%	+15.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-	Dean Kremer (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	32.9%	19.7%	+13.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	-	Sonny Gray (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	31.8%	20.8%	+11.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Trea Turner	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	30.9%	16.4%	+14.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	4	Carson Whisenhunt (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	30.8%	19.7%	+11.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-	Will Warren (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	30.3%	19.7%	+10.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	2	Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	29.9%	20.8%	+9.1%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.7%	18.8%	+11.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Mitch Bratt (L)	theScore Bet	+350	-	29.3%	20.8%	+8.6%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-	Andre Pallante (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	29.3%	22.0%	+7.2%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Nimmo	Texas Rangers	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	3	Carson Whisenhunt (L)	theScore Bet	+525	-	29.1%	15.1%	+14.0%	97	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	100	90.8%	-988	Jake Burger, Brandon Nimmo, Rafael Devers, Justin Foscue	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	100	90.4%	-946	Bryce Harper, CJ Abrams, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| Precip chance 50% -- delay/postponement risk \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	100	90.3%	-937	Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen, Salvador Perez, John Rave	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	100	89.9%	-886	Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Liam Hicks, Mickey Moniak	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	100	87.6%	-704	Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Soderstrom, JJ Bleday	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.4%	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	86.0%	-612	Kyle Stowers, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-
Watchlist	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	85.4%	-584	Alec Burleson, Ben Rice, Heliot Ramos, Jimmy Crooks	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	100	85.2%	-574	Mike Trout, Pete Alonso, Zach Neto, Gunnar Henderson	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| Precip chance 42% -- delay/postponement risk	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	100	84.6%	-551	Eddy Alvarez, Nathaniel Lowe, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	84.3%	-537	Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Ty France, Lars Nootbaar	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	100	84.2%	-533	Dillon Dingler, Randy Arozarena, Riley Greene, Dominic Canzone	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	100	83.9%	-522	Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Brandon Lowe	American Family Field HR factor 1.08	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	100	83.0%	-487	Miguel Vargas, Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Colson Montgomery	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (+210) HR chance 40.9% | edge +10.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.283, OPS 0.925, ISO 0.269, TB/G 2.11
Statcast: barrel 13.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.521
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 28/113 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0478, xFIP 4.87, K% 13.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.399, xERA 7.22, whiff 18.0%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.908, ISO 0.283 (356 PA)
Park HR factor 1.20

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Bryce Harper — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (+250) HR chance 38.5% | edge +12.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.210, OPS 0.860, ISO 0.246, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 11.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/113.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.515
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/114 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0372, xFIP 4.43, K% 23.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.358, xERA 5.56, whiff 24.9%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.855, K% 5.9% (17 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.994, ISO 0.324 (295 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Kyle Stowers — Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (+350) HR chance 38.4% | edge +17.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.180, OPS 0.779, ISO 0.223, TB/G 1.71
Statcast: barrel 12.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.436
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 13/89 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0371, xFIP 4.12, K% 20.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.309, xERA 3.99, whiff 21.5%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.821, K% 37.5% (8 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.852, ISO 0.255 (296 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance CJ Abrams — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (+375) HR chance 37.8% | edge +18.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.252, OPS 0.911, ISO 0.264, TB/G 2.06
Statcast: barrel 10.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.460
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 26/111 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0491, xFIP 4.77, K% 18.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.349, xERA 5.24, whiff 23.0%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.981, ISO 0.295 (328 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.419, xwOBA 0.332 (79 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Strong HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (+190) HR chance 36.5% | edge +4.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.306, OPS 0.888, ISO 0.283, TB/G 1.94
Statcast: barrel 17.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.3/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.492
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 28/108 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0372, xFIP 4.43, K% 23.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.358, xERA 5.56, whiff 24.9%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.620, K% 21.7% (23 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.071, OPS 0.846, ISO 0.284 (294 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Cold recent HR form

Best HR Chance Sal Stewart — Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (+325) HR chance 36.4% | edge +14.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.214, OPS 0.814, ISO 0.224, TB/G 1.81
Statcast: barrel 14.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/111.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.474
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 22/112 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0399, xFIP 5.66, K% 18.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.298, xERA 3.69, whiff 23.3%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.927, ISO 0.232 (117 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.325, xwOBA 0.272 (63 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Matt Olson — Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (+350) HR chance 36.1% | edge +15.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.274, OPS 0.889, ISO 0.275, TB/G 2.12
Statcast: barrel 14.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.6/111.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.515
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 28/113 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.819, K% 33.3% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.931, ISO 0.305 (286 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.537, xwOBA 0.338 (56 PA)
Park HR factor 1.03

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

Best HR Chance Elly De La Cruz — Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (+300) HR chance 35.8% | edge +12.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.194, OPS 0.855, ISO 0.223, TB/G 1.98
Statcast: barrel 14.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.3/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.491
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 17/93 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0399, xFIP 5.66, K% 18.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.298, xERA 3.69, whiff 23.3%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 1.102, ISO 0.350 (114 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.673, xwOBA 0.436 (29 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	+1100	0.3%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Cold recent HR form
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+1100	0.8%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+800	0.9%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| BvP strikeout risk \| Cold recent HR form
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	+800	0.9%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA)
Taylor Ward	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+700	1.1%	Team lineup not posted \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+900	1.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Josh Naylor	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+600	1.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Cold recent HR form
Nolan Schanuel	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	+1000	1.6%	Team lineup not posted \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Geraldo Perdomo	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+800	1.6%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA)
Chase Meidroth	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+1100	1.8%	Team lineup not posted

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Sonny Gray	Sean Burke	0.95	17.0%	47.2%	-	+0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	Kyle Harrison	Paul Skenes	1.08	16.1%	45.5%	-	+0.0%
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	Bryan Woo	Drew Anderson	0.92	15.8%	44.9%	-	+0.0%
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Mitch Bratt	Casey Mize	1.02	15.7%	44.8%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	Tanner Bibee	Christian Scott	0.95	15.4%	44.2%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	Trevor Rogers	Reid Detmers	1.00	14.8%	43.1%	-	+0.0%
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Will Warren	Andre Pallante	1.18	14.6%	42.7%	-	+0.0%
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Bryce Elder	Eury Pérez	1.03	14.1%	41.6%	-	+0.0%
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	Rhett Lowder	Jacob Lopez	1.15	12.4%	38.4%	-	+0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	Tomoyuki Sugano	Nick Martinez	1.20	10.1%	33.3%	4.4%	+5.7%
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Andrew Painter	Jake Irvin	1.10	9.6%	32.0%	-	+0.0%
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Noah Cameron	Dean Kremer	0.93	9.6%	32.2%	-	+0.0%
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	Cody Bradford	Carson Whisenhunt	1.10	9.2%	31.1%	7.8%	+1.4%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	67.0	62.5	74.0	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	63.8	64.2	64.5	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	63.6	61.1	69.0	4	4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 58% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	63.3	59.6	71.0	5	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	62.1	62.9	64.5	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	58.0	56.5	63.0	6	Slider (32% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	57.9	59.0	58.0	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	57.4	60.7	56.0	6	Slider (42% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers	57.2	58.3	58.0	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	56.3	53.7	61.5	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians	55.6	56.4	57.5	6	Sweeper (32% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds	54.0	46.3	58.5	5	Slider (28% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees	50.2	42.1	58.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	50.0	46.8	56.0	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	49.8	48.5	53.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	49.6	44.9	54.5	5	Sweeper (29% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	47.6	57.3	37.5	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	46.8	52.1	42.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals	46.8	48.1	45.0	5	Changeup (30% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	46.1	48.2	45.5	6	Cutter (33% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	41.5	46.2	33.0	7	Slider (38% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	40.1	51.7	28.5	6	Curveball (42% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	38.7	43.3	32.5	6	Slider (36% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs	38.1	32.8	41.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros	37.9	52.0	24.5	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies	37.5	32.8	43.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 17.8%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	34.1	23.4	38.0	6	Slider (29% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 15.6%, put-away 8.4%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carson Whisenhunt	San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers	32.8	56.7	3.5	4	Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.408, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays	22.3	31.5	8.0	7	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 11.8%, xwOBA 0.399, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cody Bradford	Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	L	17.2%	4.0	4.1	4.8	67	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds	L	22.2%	3.7	4.4	4.2	62	short	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	R	20.3%	5.0	5.7	5.6	84	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	L	20.3%	6.0	5.5	5.6	101	deep	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	R	20.3%	6.0	5.7	5.8	101	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	23.5%	5.7	5.8	5.8	96	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	R	31.4%	6.2	5.5	6.0	104	deep	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	R	18.5%	3.4	4.8	4.5	57	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	R	16.8%	5.9	5.8	5.8	99	normal	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	13.9%	5.7	5.4	5.5	96	normal	full	8.00	92.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	R	27.0%	1.1	3.7	4.5	18	short	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.1 IP/start
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	22.4%	5.3	5.3	5.3	89	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	L	22.6%	6.4	5.4	6.0	107	deep	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	L	29.1%	5.0	5.7	5.5	84	short	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs	L	14.8%	5.8	5.1	5.2	97	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	R	26.2%	6.4	5.5	6.0	107	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	28.1%	4.7	4.9	4.9	79	short	full	69.00	31.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	R	22.3%	5.0	5.1	5.3	84	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians	R	29.5%	4.7	4.6	4.6	79	short	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	23.2%	4.7	5.1	5.0	79	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	R	18.6%	4.1	4.7	4.6	69	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	30.9%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	24.8%	5.5	5.4	5.4	92	normal	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Carson Whisenhunt	San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers	L	20.4%	4.6	4.8	5.2	77	short	full	3.50	96.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	R	24.5%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees	R	16.4%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies	R	12.5%	5.6	5.9	5.8	94	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cody Bradford	Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants	L	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros	R	21.5%	4.0	5.1	4.8	67	short	full	24.50	75.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	22.7%	4.4	4.7	4.7	74	short	full	28.50	71.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	19.0	1.5	8.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Burke	Sean Burke Over	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	18.7	1.2	6.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Noah Cameron	Noah Cameron Over	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	18.0	0.5	2.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Over	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.9	0.3	2.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Over	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	17.5	0.0	0.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.6	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

200 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Eddy Alvarez	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	3.50	2.02	0.81	0.67	3.34 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jake McCarthy	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	Over 1.5	2.74	1.16	0.77	0.81	2.25 / Over	0.30	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.65	1.09	0.69	0.86	2.68 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Elias Diaz	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.44	1.48	0.49	0.47	2.81 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Sal Stewart	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.43	0.95	0.60	0.87	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Arraez	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.38	1.33	0.56	0.48	2.42 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ezequiel Duran	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.37	1.10	0.60	0.67	2.55 / Over	0.30	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Wyatt Langford	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.34	1.29	0.55	0.49	1.98 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Drake Baldwin	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.34	1.04	0.68	0.63	2.45 / Over	0.35	season_games=90,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nicky Lopez	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.34	1.40	0.49	0.45	2.45 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Jung Hoo Lee	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.34	1.25	0.66	0.43	2.18 / Over	0.30	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.33	1.10	0.53	0.70	2.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Matt Olson	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.33	1.04	0.69	0.60	2.37 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
TJ Rumfield	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	Over 1.5	2.32	1.07	0.53	0.73	2.07 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ben Rice	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.27	0.96	0.64	0.66	2.26 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake Burger	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.20	0.95	0.47	0.78	2.36 / Over	0.30	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.19	0.96	0.57	0.66	2.04 / Over	0.30	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jackson Chourio	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.19	1.13	0.59	0.47	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=79,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie Albies	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.19	1.02	0.62	0.55	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Michael Harris II	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.18	1.09	0.51	0.59	2.14 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.18	1.24	0.57	0.36	2.45 / Over	0.30	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Nathaniel Lowe	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	2.16	1.28	0.44	0.44	2.28 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Justin Foscue	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.15	1.16	0.45	0.54	1.94 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Brandon Marsh	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.15	1.04	0.58	0.52	2.23 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	Over 1.5	2.15	1.01	0.51	0.62	2.24 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes