MLB Bets 2026-08-05

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	966W–451L–0P	68%	-40.01 u	Last 14 days • 1417 settled
Grade A	26W–30L–0P	46%	-10.10 u
Grade B	940W–419L–0P	69%	-27.90 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3111W–1982L–8P	61%	-179.06 u	All-time • 5101 settled
Grade A	247W–189L–0P	57%	-3.66 u
Grade B	2864W–1791L–8P	62%	-173.40 u

92 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter H+R+RBI	Yainer Diaz	1.5	-116	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Andres Gimenez	0.5	-484	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Andy Pages	0.5	-331	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-241	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-200	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber	0.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	William Contreras	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Yordan Alvarez	0.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	K Prop	Mitch Bratt	3.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	K Prop	Paul Skenes	6.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	K Prop	Shota Imanaga	4.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	NRFI	NRFI	-	124	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	NRFI	NRFI	-	132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Andrew Painter	2.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Hunter Brown	1.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Nick Martinez	3.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Paul Skenes	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Eric Lauer	5.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Hunter Brown	5.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nick Martinez	6.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Sean Burke	5.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Tomoyuki Sugano	6.5	-106	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Outs	Sean Burke	17.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Carson Whisenhunt	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Cody Bradford	0.5	-177	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Eric Lauer	1.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Walks	Hunter Brown	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	YRFI	YRFI	-	128	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-04	Run Line	San Francisco Giants	+1.5	-125	-	WIN	+0.800	Final: San Francisco Giants 4, Texas Ran
2026-08-04	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	3.5	-153	-	WIN	+0.654	Hayden Wesneski: 4.0 (line 3.5)
2026-08-04	K Prop	Sean Manaea	4.5	-134	-	WIN	+0.746	Sean Manaea: 7.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	512	56%	-11.76u	64	47%	-11.46u	239	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	453	57%	+6.21u	58	48%	-8.98u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	160	57%	+4.51u	22	77%	+7.60u	44	64%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1543	74%	-22.57u	916	75%	-13.51u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	505	57%	-18.99u	107	52%	-11.26u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	369	61%	-6.91u	83	63%	+1.92u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	51	71%	-0.40u	14	50%	-4.30u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	3	33%	-1.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	1
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	1
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	115	48%	-11.87u	7	86%	+3.24u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	25	56%	-0.69u	24	58%	+0.31u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	566	52%	-53.10u	82	60%	+3.59u	85	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 512, 14d N 64	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 453, 14d N 58	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 160, 14d N 22	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 51, 14d N 14	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 266 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 3	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 115, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 25, 14d N 24	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 2 actionable / 228 total candidate(s); season N 566, 14d N 82	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 228 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 777 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 222 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 754 pitcher(s), 3344 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 569 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1362 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Mets, Colorado Rockies, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers, Athletics, Miami Marlins, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, Athletics, San Francisco Giants
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 30 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 334 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 28 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 25 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 8 line(s)/4 game(s); Earned Runs 26 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 108, fanatics 7, espnbet 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 3032 market side(s) checked \| 3032 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 9 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 228 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 613 \| batter bats 403 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 60 \| batter pitch-type 569 \| bullpen HR 30
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 255 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 84 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	2:10 PM	+159	-169	1.5 (-142)	-1.5 (+118)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+106	-113	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	+160	-170	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	-158	+148	-1.5 (-107)	1.5 (-112)	O/U 11.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	+130	-157	1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	+114	-137	1.5 (-167)	-1.5 (+138)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	-114	-106	-1.5 (+143)	1.5 (-174)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+143	-174	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-158)	-1.5 (+131)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+104	-126	1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	+114	-137	1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+102	-123	-1.5 (+159)	1.5 (-194)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-123	+102	-1.5 (+135)	1.5 (-163)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+128	-155	1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

0 Grade A | 43 Grade B | 1070 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (37 play(s))

K Prop - Noah Cameron Over

Projection: 6.3Displayed: Over 5.5 +126Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 4.75Recommended: FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.75

K Prop - Reid Detmers Over

Projection: 7.6Displayed: Over 7.5 +123Market line: majority 6.5 | avg 6.7Recommended: BetOnline Over 6.5 -143 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.7

Batter Hits - A.J. Ewing Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Kyle Karros Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Alec Bohm Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Cole Carrigg Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Yordan Alvarez Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Spencer Torkelson Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Brandon Lowe Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Andrew Vaughn Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Christian Yelich Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Javier Sanoja Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Owen Caissie Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Griffin Conine Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Joe Mack Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Dane Myers Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ryan McMahon Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Bryan Torres Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Nathan Church Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Spencer Jones Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - George Lombard Jr. Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Blaze Jordan Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Travis d'Arnaud Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Denzer Guzman Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

No Grade A signals today.

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (43 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Mitch Bratt Under 3.5 (-148) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	+120	-160	-
DK	3.5	+116	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+124	-158	-
Fanatics	3.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 28.8% vs 17% min; cushion -1.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Mitch Bratt: K/9 6.9, proj 2.5K over 4.3 IP (season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 15.6% | put-away% 8.4% | xwOBA 0.339 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Slider: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.7%, L7 19.7%, season 22.1% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: K L10: 4/5 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 4.5 (-125) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	4.5	-124	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-125	-102	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 24.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shota Imanaga: K/9 8.4, proj 5.6K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.8% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 92 PA | K% 20.6% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .262 | OPS .851
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 92 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.9%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, BVP 20.6%/92 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 6.5 (-143) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-149	+115	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
DK	6.5	-143	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-156	+122	-
Fanatics	6.5	-150	+115	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 19.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Paul Skenes: K/9 11.6, proj 7.8K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.267 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 79 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .178 | OPS .514
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 79 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.8%, L7 21.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 30.4%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.40 | Season Avg 6.78
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Sean Burke Over 17.5 (-156) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-148	+111	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-156	+117	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 21.212 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 21.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.9 IP (season 6.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.8 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .405
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.0%, L7 20.6%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 7.0%, L7 9.3%, season 8.1%, BVP 0.0%/18 PA (adj 0.88x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.9 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 16.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Under 6.5 (-117) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 6.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 6.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-120	-120	-
DK	6.5	-114	-117	Selected
Fanatics	6.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.7 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 27.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.05, BB% 4.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 37 PA | K% 27.0% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .200 | OPS .472
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 21.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 27.0%/37 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sean Burke Under 5.5 (-162) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.67 over 6.2 IP (WHIP 0.98, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.9 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .405
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.0%, L7 20.6%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-162) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hunter Brown Under 5.5 (-156) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+118	-156	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 11.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 78 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .188 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.7%, L7 16.6%, season 19.4%, BVP 24.4%/78 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eric Lauer Under 5.5 (-133) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.77 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.11, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 76 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .269 | OPS .803
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.7%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.7%/76 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 6.5 (-106) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	-125	-106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.5 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 15.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .808
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 15.8%, L7 19.4%, season 19.1% (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Cody Bradford Over 0.5 (-177) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -177

Selected market: Over 59.8% / Under 40.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -177 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5590715198210892 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.8% / under 40.2%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.7%, L7 16.6%, season 20.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 5.7%, L7 9.7%, season 7.0% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-177) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Hunter Brown Over 1.5 (-136) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3255072929043825 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 5.1 IP (BB% 11.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 78 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .188 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.7%, L7 16.6%, season 19.4%, BVP 24.4%/78 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 6.5%, L7 6.7%, season 7.3%, BVP 7.7%/78 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 9/10 (90%) | Season 9/10 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Eric Lauer Over 1.5 (-120) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.19370690894186 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.7 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.15x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 76 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .269 | OPS .803
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.7%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.7%/76 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.0%, split 10.6%, L7 12.0%, season 11.0%, BVP 10.5%/76 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Carson Whisenhunt Over 1.5 (-174) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.108846308298181 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Carson Whisenhunt: 8 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.5%, L7 25.9%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.9%, L7 9.4%, season 8.6% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/4 (100%) | L10 4/4 (100%) | L20 4/4 (100%) | Season 4/4 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/4 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-174) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Brown Over 1.5 (-175) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.07 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 78 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .188 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.7%, L7 16.6%, season 19.4%, BVP 24.4%/78 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-164) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-164	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.82 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.27)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 79 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .178 | OPS .514
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.8%, L7 21.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 30.4%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Martinez Under 3.5 (-148) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 34.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.86 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 37 PA | K% 27.0% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .200 | OPS .472
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 21.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 27.0%/37 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 19/21 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (-120) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.82 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 7.76)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .692
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

▸ Batter Walks — 22 play(s) (B 22)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-484) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -484 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -484

Selected market: Over 22.2% / Under 77.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -484 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+323	-484	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.10
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter Walks: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter Walks: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Heavy juice (-484); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-500) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .633
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-450) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+302	-450	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+350	-575	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/104 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 88/104 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/110 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 90/110 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-125) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.66
Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 23 PA | 3/19 | HR 1 | K% 21.7% | BB% 17.4% | OPS .620
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 58/108 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.66

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-550) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-550); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-475) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/104 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 79/104 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-500) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 88/109 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 88/109 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-320) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .891
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/109 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 89/109 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Heavy juice (-320); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-310) diff 56.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/92 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 66/92 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-310) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-331) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -331

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+229	-331	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.622
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/113 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 79/113 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Heavy juice (-331); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-153) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-153	+111	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 58/113 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.71

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-241) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -241 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -241

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -241 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+171	-241	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 73/98 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-241) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-375) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/105 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 77/105 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-265) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 74/105 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-265); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-400) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 19 PA | 5/18 | HR 0 | K% 21.1% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .760
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/109 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 82/109 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-195) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/109 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-195); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-200) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 79/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-200); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-375) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/105 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 83/105 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-350) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/105 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 82/105 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-300) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/99 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 77/99 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-300); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-425) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/113 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 89/113 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (-116) diff 97.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 97.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.440, xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/109 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 63/109 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.31

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.5 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-124) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.46
Base projection 2.46 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.419 (79 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/111 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 34/55 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 65/111 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.46

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-120) edge 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
FanDuel	5.5	-108	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	5.5	+100	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Shota Imanaga xFIP 4.20
Eric Lauer xFIP 4.20
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 107)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shota Imanaga (LHP)
Away SP: Eric Lauer (LHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ NRFI — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal Add Signal NRFI — NRFI (+124) edge 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +124

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
Grade B: NRFI effective edge 0.0516 after 0.0100 buffer
Eric Lauer / Shota Imanaga announced and matched

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (1070 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 8 | C 16)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Burke Over 6.5 (+122) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
DK	6.5	+122	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+118	-150	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 32.4% vs 17% min; cushion +2.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sean Burke: K/9 11.1, proj 8.6K over 6.4 IP (season 6.9 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .405
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.0%, L7 20.6%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.00 | Season Avg 6.36
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.64 vs season
K% trend: support +10.4 ppts (recent 38.1% vs season 27.7%, proj adj +5.2%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Cody Bradford Over 3.5 (-147) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-132	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 26.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.91K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.7%, L7 16.6%, season 20.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: K: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 26.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jake Irvin Over 3.5 (-159) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -159

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-159	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 15.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.53K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.0% / under 42.0%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jake Irvin: K/9 8.8, proj 4.0K over 4.7 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.358 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 174 PA | K% 13.2% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .272 | OPS .766
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 174 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.6%, L7 17.0%, season 23.4%, active roster 21.0%/9 hitters, BVP 13.2%/174 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 77%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 17.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (9 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/12 (83%) | Season 10/12 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.92
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 5.5 (+126) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
FanDuel	4.5	-138	+108	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	-155	+110	-
DK	5.5	+126	-161	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.83K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.8% / under 58.2%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Noah Cameron: K/9 8.6, proj 6.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 93 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .398
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 93 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.2%, L7 17.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 26.9%/93 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +3.4 ppts (recent 24.8% vs season 21.4%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Kyle Harrison Over 5.5 (-149) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-141	+109	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-149	+117	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-136	+106	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Harrison: K/9 10.3, proj 6.2K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.277 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 1% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 25 PA | K% 48.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .532
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.1%, split 24.6%, L7 24.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 48.0%/25 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.94
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Trevor Rogers Over 5.5 (-136) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-123	-104	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-136	+106	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-115	-111	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-105	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.3% / under 45.7%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Trevor Rogers: K/9 7.7, proj 6.0K over 5.7 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Sweeper (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Sweeper: 37.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 31 PA | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.012
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 25.1%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 32.3%/31 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.45
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Nick Martinez Over 3.5 (-115) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-115	-111	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-115	-115	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nick Martinez: K/9 4.5, proj 3.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.8% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 37 PA | K% 27.0% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .200 | OPS .472
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, active roster 21.7%/8 hitters, BVP 27.0%/37 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 3.29
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 7.5 (+123) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 -143 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 -143 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 7.5 +123; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	6.5	-150	+118	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-155	+110	-
DK	7.5	+123	-157	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.6K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Reid Detmers: K/9 10.9, proj 7.6K over 5.4 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.3% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 36.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 46 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .171 | OPS .651
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.1%, L7 24.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 30.4%/46 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.59
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Painter Over 3.5 (-169) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -169

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-169	+132	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 28.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.3% / under 40.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Painter: K/9 7.9, proj 4.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.349 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .692
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.93
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 28.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Carson Whisenhunt Over 4.5 (+106) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.79K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Carson Whisenhunt: K/9 8.1, proj 5.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.3% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.408 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Carson Whisenhunt: 8 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.5%, L7 25.9%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/4 (25%) | L10 1/4 (25%) | L20 1/4 (25%) | Season 1/4 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/4 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Rhett Lowder Under 4.5 (-143) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+112	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.64K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Rhett Lowder: K/9 7.5, proj 3.9K over 4.7 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.8% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.8%, L7 22.5%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.68
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 (-105) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -105

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-122	-105	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-124	+102	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tanner Bibee: K/9 6.2, proj 3.9K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Cutter (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Cutter: 18.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .163 | OPS .542
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, active roster 20.4%/6 hitters, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 25.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.35
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.1 ppts (recent 13.5% vs season 18.6%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 98 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryan Woo Under 6.5 (-138) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
DK	6.5	+108	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+116	-148	-
Fanatics	6.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 12.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.79K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryan Woo: K/9 9.4, proj 5.7K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.292 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 43 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 2.3% | AVG .286 | OPS .636
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.3%, L7 19.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.9%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Will Warren Over 4.5 (-104) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-110	-118	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	-
DK	4.5	-104	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-106	-120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.0% / under 52.0%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Will Warren: K/9 9.1, proj 5.0K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 25 PA | K% 32.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .136 | OPS .376
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 20.4%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 32.0%/25 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.95
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eury Perez Over 5.5 (+109) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+104	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.57K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eury Perez: K/9 9.3, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Slider: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 64 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .362 | OPS 1.096
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.8%, L7 18.3%, season 21.2%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters, BVP 15.6%/64 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 18.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.89
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Lopez Under 5.5 (-140) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-140	-
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob Lopez: K/9 9.1, proj 5.1K over 4.5 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Slider (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 22.0%, L7 28.4%, season 25.2% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/17 (82%) | Season 14/17 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.59
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +9.0 ppts (recent 27.7% vs season 18.7%, proj adj +4.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 133 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 (-165) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	4.5	+250	-360	-
DK	4.5	+129	-165	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.2% / under 58.8%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jameson Taillon: K/9 8.5, proj 4.1K over 4.7 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.366 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Sweeper: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 98 PA | K% 15.3% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .330 | OPS .964
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 98 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.1%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, active roster 19.1%/7 hitters, BVP 15.3%/98 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.53
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-144) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.4% / Under 55.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+112	-144	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.4% / under 55.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sonny Gray: K/9 7.5, proj 5.2K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .315 | OPS .814
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.5%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 4.90
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hunter Brown Under 5.5 (-158) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.2% / Under 57.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.1 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 3.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	-177	+132	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+124	-158	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+128	-164	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.2% / under 57.8%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Hunter Brown: K/9 8.7, proj 5.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.6% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 24.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 78 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .188 | OPS .601
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.7%, L7 16.6%, season 19.4%, active roster 19.2%/6 hitters, BVP 24.4%/78 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 84%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 16.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eric Lauer Under 3.5 (-107) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	-112	-120	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-119	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	3.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eric Lauer: K/9 5.5, proj 3.4K over 5.8 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.1% | put-away% 12.9% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 19.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 76 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .269 | OPS .803
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 76 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 22.7%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 23.7%/76 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.29
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 107 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andre Pallante Over 4.5 (+111) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andre Pallante: K/9 6.2, proj 4.7K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 14.4% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 57 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .275 | OPS .978
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.7%, L7 24.1%, season 24.3%, BVP 22.8%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.10
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Christian Scott Under 5.5 (-150) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	-
DK	5.5	+117	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+130	-166	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Christian Scott: K/9 11.3, proj 5.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 18.4%, L7 17.9%, season 22.1%, active roster 17.9%/7 hitters (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 17.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 32.3% vs season 28.8%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Elder Under 4.5 (+110) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-141	+110	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-138	+108	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Elder: K/9 7.7, proj 4.4K over 5.4 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 51 PA | K% 15.7% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .295 | OPS .835
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.1%, L7 18.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.7%/51 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.81
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dean Kremer Over 4.5 (-103) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-103	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dean Kremer: K/9 8.6, proj 4.6K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .288 | OPS .801
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 56 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 24.1%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3%, active roster 22.0%/6 hitters, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.43 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Hunter Brown Under 17.5 (+127) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +127

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-162	+121	-
DK	17.5	-169	+127	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-174	+130	Recommended
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.468 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 78 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .188 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.7%, L7 16.6%, season 19.4%, BVP 24.4%/78 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 6.5%, L7 6.7%, season 7.3%, BVP 7.7%/78 PA (adj 0.89x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 15.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.03 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.03 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Under 17.5 (-117) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-113	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.537 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 79 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .178 | OPS .514
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.8%, L7 21.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 30.4%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.8%, L7 12.1%, season 10.7%, BVP 6.3%/79 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 16.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Noah Cameron Over 17.5 (-133) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-129	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-133	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.575999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 93 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.2%, L7 17.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 26.9%/93 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.6%, L7 7.2%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.3%/93 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 (+113) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +113

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-150	+112	-
DK	17.5	-151	+113	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-154	+116	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.896 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.2% / under 43.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 92 PA | K% 20.6% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .262 | OPS .851
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.9%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, BVP 20.6%/92 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 10.1%, L7 6.0%, season 9.9%, BVP 7.6%/92 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-160) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-152	+113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-160	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.090999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .315 | OPS .814
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.5%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.6%, L7 8.2%, season 8.9%, BVP 5.3%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.10 | Season Avg 17.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +2.05 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Under 17.5 (+145) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +145

Selected market: Over 61.8% / Under 38.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
Caesars	17.5	-197	+146	-
DK	17.5	-194	+145	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-215	+150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.955 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 61.8% / under 38.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 43 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 2.3% | AVG .286 | OPS .636
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.3%, L7 19.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.9%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.7%, L7 9.7%, season 9.4%, BVP 2.3%/43 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Over 17.5 (-183) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -183

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-190	+135	-
DK	17.5	-183	+137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.849999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .163 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 8.9%, L7 7.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 9.1%/55 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 17.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Over 17.5 (-151) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-154	+115	-
DK	17.5	-151	+113	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-154	+116	-
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.805 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.2% / under 43.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 31 PA | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.012
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 25.1%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 32.3%/31 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 12.6%, L7 6.5%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/31 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 16.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Painter Over 5.5 (+120) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 6.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.37 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.73, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .692
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-108) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .163 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Rhett Lowder Under 5.5 (-112) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.8%, L7 22.5%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 (-121) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.83 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.08, BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 92 PA | K% 20.6% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .262 | OPS .851
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.9%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, BVP 20.6%/92 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-159) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-159	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 31 PA | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.012
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 25.1%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 32.3%/31 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andre Pallante Under 5.5 (-118) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 57 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .275 | OPS .978
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.7%, L7 24.1%, season 24.3%, BVP 22.8%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Elder Under 5.5 (-135) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 51 PA | K% 15.7% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .295 | OPS .835
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.1%, L7 18.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.7%/51 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-118) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .315 | OPS .814
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.5%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Dean Kremer Under 5.5 (-135) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .288 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 24.1%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3%, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.43 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/7 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Nick Martinez Over 0.5 (-201) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -201 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -201 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.832701903042191 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.17 over 5.5 IP (BB% 4.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.5% / under 37.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 37 PA | K% 27.0% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .200 | OPS .472
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 21.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 27.0%/37 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.6%, L7 6.2%, season 8.1%, BVP 5.4%/37 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 (-111) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.1562395327742712 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.2 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .808
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 15.8%, L7 19.4%, season 19.1% (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.2%, L7 5.4%, season 8.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jameson Taillon Over 1.5 (-103) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6803859650827313 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.5 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 98 PA | K% 15.3% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .330 | OPS .964
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.1%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 15.3%/98 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.3%, L7 12.0%, season 8.9%, BVP 3.1%/98 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shota Imanaga Under 1.5 (-151) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.414425428409447 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.5 IP (BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.8% / under 56.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 92 PA | K% 20.6% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .262 | OPS .851
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.9%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, BVP 20.6%/92 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 10.1%, L7 6.0%, season 9.9%, BVP 7.6%/92 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 22 play(s) (C 22)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Anderson Over 1.5 (+120) diff 113.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 113.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.06 over 7.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.51)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 7.2 IP (MEDIUM; season 31.8 IP/GS; recent 1.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 9.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Anderson: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .357 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.6%, L7 23.3%, season 23.0% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 8/40 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cody Bradford Over 1.5 (+113) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.7%, L7 16.6%, season 20.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Christian Scott Over 1.5 (-153) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.67 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.4%, L7 17.9%, season 22.1% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Harrison Over 1.5 (-104) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.59 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.31)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 25 PA | K% 48.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .532
Opponent K profile: composite 27.1%, split 24.6%, L7 24.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 48.0%/25 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Under 2.5 (+100) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.27 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 22.0%, L7 28.4%, season 25.2% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mitch Bratt Under 2.5 (-107) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.63 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.82)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.6% / under 48.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.7%, L7 19.7%, season 22.1% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 under 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-122) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 3.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 3.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-109	-122	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.0 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 14.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.01 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .808
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 15.8%, L7 19.4%, season 19.1% (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 (-115) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-115	-115	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.55 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 6.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 98 PA | K% 15.3% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .330 | OPS .964
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.1%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 15.3%/98 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eric Lauer Over 2.5 (-138) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 76 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .269 | OPS .803
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.7%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.7%/76 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Carson Whisenhunt Over 2.5 (+102) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.52 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.57)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Carson Whisenhunt: 8 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.5%, L7 25.9%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Burke Under 2.5 (-135) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.38 over 6.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.9 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .405
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.0%, L7 20.6%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Over 2.5 (-115) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.10 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 6.08)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .288 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 24.1%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3%, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.71 | Season Avg 3.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/7 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shota Imanaga Under 2.5 (+101) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-135	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.64 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.94)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.6% / under 46.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 92 PA | K% 20.6% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .262 | OPS .851
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.9%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, BVP 20.6%/92 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Under 2.5 (-164) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.92 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.61)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 31 PA | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.012
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 25.1%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 32.3%/31 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Under 2.5 (-129) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.97 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.25)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 46 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .171 | OPS .651
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.1%, L7 24.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 30.4%/46 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andre Pallante Under 2.5 (+103) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-136	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.88 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.64)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 57 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .275 | OPS .978
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.7%, L7 24.1%, season 24.3%, BVP 22.8%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Will Warren Under 2.5 (-166) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.47 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 25 PA | K% 32.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .136 | OPS .376
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 20.4%, BVP 32.0%/25 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-124) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.75 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.16)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .315 | OPS .814
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.5%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-125) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.63 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.83)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 64 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .362 | OPS 1.096
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.8%, L7 18.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 15.6%/64 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Over 2.5 (+121) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.25 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.94)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 43 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 2.3% | AVG .286 | OPS .636
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.3%, L7 19.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.9%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Rhett Lowder Under 2.5 (-109) Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.14 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.8%, L7 22.5%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Under 2.5 (-111) Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.20 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.98)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .163 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 27 play(s) (C 27)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-263) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+193	-263	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-233) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -233 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+173	-233	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.69 (AVG 0.206)
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.356 (12 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/31 (26%) | L5 4/13 (31%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/98 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/50 under 1.5 (94%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Hits: 39/48 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Hits: 86/98 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.69

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 (-271) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -271

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+199	-271	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-274) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -274 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -274 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+201	-274	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.81 (AVG 0.268)
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/32 (34%) | L5 6/16 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/52 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.83 | Away Batter Hits: 43/54 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Hits: 86/106 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.81

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-235) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+174	-235	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-218) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -218

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+162	-218	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-274) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -274 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -274 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+201	-274	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.84 (AVG 0.227)
Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 19 PA | 5/18 | HR 0 | K% 21.1% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .760
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.84
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter Hits: 84/109 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 1.5 (-266) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -266

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-275	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+196	-266	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Mickey Moniak Under 1.5 (-250) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+184	-250	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Cole Carrigg Under 1.5 (-261) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+192	-261	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Daylen Lile Under 1.5 (-273) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+200	-273	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.246)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.220 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/33 (27%) | L5 3/15 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/113 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/55 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.82 | Away Batter Hits: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter Hits: 87/113 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-258) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+190	-258	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.241)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.316 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 17/40 (42%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 82/111 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 82/111 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-260) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+191	-260	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.269 (15 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 15/39 (38%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/104 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter Hits: 69/104 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-186) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.218 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/46 (22%) | L5 7/23 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/99 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 39/49 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 70/99 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-236) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+175	-236	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.256)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.381 (21 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/113 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/58 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 81/113 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-269) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -269

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+198	-269	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.294)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.292 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/37 (27%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/111 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 81/111 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-183) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -183 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.284)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.198 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/37 (30%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 74/102 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-207) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.321 (74 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/40 (22%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/112 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 42/57 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 81/112 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-221) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -221 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -221

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -221 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+164	-221	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.252)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 18 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .863
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 15/42 (36%) | L5 9/20 (45%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/111 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 82/111 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-210) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+157	-210	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/42 (21%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/95 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 67/95 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 (-150) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.283 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/43 (28%) | L5 7/23 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/110 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 78/110 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-160) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.299)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.260 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 15/37 (40%) | L5 9/19 (47%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 30/49 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 70/106 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-144) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.284)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.352 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter Hits: 80/113 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-207) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.29 (AVG 0.323)
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328 (82 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter Hits: 66/110 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-200) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.325)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/43 (37%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/106 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/50 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 64/106 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-255) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -255

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -255 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+188	-255	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.19 (AVG 0.329)
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.504 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/34 (35%) | L5 9/18 (50%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/113 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter Hits: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 73/113 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-123) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.300)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.440 (12 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 74/109 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 216 play(s) (C 216)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-105) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.78
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/112 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/60 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 63/112 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.78

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+120) diff 57.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/84 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/43 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.72 | Away Batter Walks: 18/41 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 42/84 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+145) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 17 PA | 4/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.9% | BB% 17.6% | OPS .855
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/57 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 55/114 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+185) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +185

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 58/113 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.5% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-400) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 18 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .863
BVP walk adjustment: 0.86x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/111 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 84/111 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-450) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+303	-450	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/97 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 71/97 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-400) diff 49.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/103 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 77/103 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-245) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/109 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 80/109 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-340) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 79/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-340) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-300) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-300) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/114 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/114 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-375) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/114 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/114 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-330) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/114 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/114 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-255) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 77/108 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-550) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/108 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 84/108 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-278) diff 43.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+195	-278	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-293) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -293 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -293 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+205	-293	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 19 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 26.3% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .957
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 64/90 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/46 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 64/90 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-310) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/93 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 29/42 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 67/93 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-144) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -144

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+104	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-192) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -192

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+138	-192	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-227) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+161	-227	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-270) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -270 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+190	-270	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Osuna Under 0.5 (-305) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -305 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -305 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+213	-305	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-323) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+224	-323	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-362) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -362

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+249	-362	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-363) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -363

Selected market: Over 26.7% / Under 73.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+250	-363	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-500) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-259) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -259 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -259 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+183	-259	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 12 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 71/111 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 71/111 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-425) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/79 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/40 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 57/79 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-348) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+240	-348	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 83/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-268) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+189	-268	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/109 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 80/109 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-253) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -253

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+179	-253	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/105 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 83/105 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-264) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -264 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -264

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -264 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+186	-264	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-300) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-320) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-419) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -419

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+284	-419	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 72/111 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-201) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -201 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -201 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+144	-201	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 32/52 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 68/102 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-280) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 20 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 5.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.137
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/108 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/108 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-225) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/106 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 73/106 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-240) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/106 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 73/106 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-264) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -264 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -264

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -264 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+186	-264	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-199) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -199 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -199

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -199 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+143	-199	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-301) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -301

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+210	-301	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-385) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+263	-385	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-376) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -376

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+257	-376	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-381) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -381 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -381

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -381 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+261	-381	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-425) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/113 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 86/113 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-340) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/112 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 74/112 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-340) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-213) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -213 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.8% / Under 63.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -213 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+152	-213	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/101 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 72/101 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-330) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-245) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-195) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-340) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-280) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-265) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-375) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 85/111 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-325) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+226	-325	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-322) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+223	-322	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-261) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -261 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -261 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+184	-261	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-206) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -206 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -206 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+148	-206	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 75/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-215) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-340) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-150) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Jackson Under 0.5 (-450) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-500) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-375) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-300) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-165) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-140) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-500) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-215) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-475) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-400) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-320) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-270) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-240) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-425) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-310) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-195) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/102 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 64/102 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-425) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 85/111 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-413) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -413

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+280	-413	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/106 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/52 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 65/106 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-227) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -227 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+162	-227	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/109 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 81/109 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-270) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/103 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-375) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/103 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James McCann Under 0.5 (-525) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-525) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-265) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-310) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-195) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-300) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-255) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-330) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-270) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-340) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-300) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 72/106 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-225) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-265) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-450) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-230) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-350) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 73/107 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+120) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.81
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/94 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 26/46 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Walks: 51/94 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.81

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-280) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-350) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-375) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-310) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-320) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-350) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-350) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-230) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-300) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-500) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-280) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-165) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-450) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-475) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (+310) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +310 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +310

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 33/82 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/41 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 33/82 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 22.6% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+170) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 33/82 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/41 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 33/82 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-182) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -182

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -182 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+131	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/108 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 67/108 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-350) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/112 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 80/112 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-200) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-300) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-320) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-165) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-140) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-310) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-425) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-200) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-155) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-340) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-450) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-425) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-270) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-255) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-375) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-525) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremiah Jackson Under 0.5 (-425) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-280) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-450) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-475) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-280) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-255) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 77/112 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-185) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-300) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/110 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-400) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 70/110 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-280) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 74/106 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-350) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-375) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/95 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 60/95 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-185) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/107 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/56 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 59/107 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.58

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 (-110) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 38/93 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/48 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 17/45 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 38/93 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.48

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-300) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/111 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 78/111 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-350) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-300) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-500) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-155) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-350) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-375) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-230) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-330) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-200) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-210) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 (+145) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.125
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/90 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/48 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 16/42 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 35/90 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-214) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+153	-214	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 31/54 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 68/110 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-195) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/110 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 64/110 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-255) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/53 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 63/104 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-222) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+158	-222	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/107 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 63/107 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+165) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 16/53 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 42/105 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-249) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+176	-249	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 77/108 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-235) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+167	-235	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-274) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+193	-274	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-335) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+232	-335	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-421) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -421

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+285	-421	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-522) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -522 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -522

Selected market: Over 21.1% / Under 78.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -522 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+345	-522	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-350) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Enrique Hernandez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Over 0.5 (+120) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/58 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 18/54 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 43/112 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-273) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -273 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -273 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+192	-273	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/113 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/59 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 70/113 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-245) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/111 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 30/54 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 63/111 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (+150) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/82 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/42 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 13/40 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 29/82 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-200) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/102 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 65/102 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-180) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/47 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/109 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-170) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/94 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/40 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 57/94 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-330) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 73/113 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 32/54 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 73/113 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-245) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 64/111 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 64/111 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-227) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+162	-227	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 71/114 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/61 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 71/114 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-185) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 70/106 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Over 0.5 (+161) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +161

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+161	-226	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.33x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.155
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/83 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/48 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 12/35 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 30/83 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (+102) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +102

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+102	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .586
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 39/97 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/49 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 14/48 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 39/97 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-185) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/108 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 27/53 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 66/108 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-215) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 69/113 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-265) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .821
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/89 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 29/46 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 57/89 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+155) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/108 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/52 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 40/108 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 (+125) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 38/101 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/48 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 18/53 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 38/101 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-284) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+199	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/111 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 77/111 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+190) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 53/113 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 53/113 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+180) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/55 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 20/56 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 41/111 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-206) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -206 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -206 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+148	-206	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/49 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 29/55 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 54/104 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-215) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/57 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 63/115 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Over 0.5 (+120) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/113 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/57 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 22/56 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 41/113 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-218) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+156	-218	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/111 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/57 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 64/111 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-285) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+200	-285	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-255) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/109 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/55 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 63/109 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-115) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/110 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/53 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 32/57 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 60/110 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+165) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 11 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .990
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 44/114 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/57 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 44/114 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-165) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/112 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 73/112 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Over 0.5 (+125) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/96 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/52 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 19/44 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 36/96 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-195) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 32/54 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 57/109 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-237) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+168	-237	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/114 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 70/114 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 226 play(s) (C 226)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+122) diff 114.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 3.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 114.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.63
Base projection 2.63 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.504, xSLG 0.732 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/113 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/58 over 1.5 (69%), avg 3.02 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 62/113 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-151) diff 66.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-151	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 35/54 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 72/110 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-149) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.436, xSLG 0.673 (29 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/93 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 56/93 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (-120) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 54/105 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-126) diff 63.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.300 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/90 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/48 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.56 | Away Batter HRR: 23/42 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 53/90 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-137) diff 63.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.434 (119 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .586
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 57/97 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/49 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 30/48 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 57/97 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-128) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.377, xSLG 0.384 (11 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.622
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/113 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 60/113 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-139) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.382 (159 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/114 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 65/114 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-137) diff 58.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-137	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.441 (75 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/113 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.70 | Day Batter HRR: 64/113 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-116) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.537 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 66/113 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (-128) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.381 (43 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 51/109 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-134) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.452 (58 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+126) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.403, xSLG 0.623 (114 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/106 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 56/106 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+124) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.403, xSLG 0.623 (114 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/106 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 56/106 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-134) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.369, xSLG 0.473 (68 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-104) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.395, xSLG 0.596 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/104 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.54 | Day Batter HRR: 55/104 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-144) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.405 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .891
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 57/109 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-114) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.422, xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-148) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.277 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/104 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 52/104 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-105) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.309 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/111 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 51/111 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-126) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.451 (64 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 54/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+106) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.380 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/113 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/57 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 63/113 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-116) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.515 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/104 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 53/104 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-118) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.204, xSLG 0.277 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 19 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 26.3% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .957
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/90 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 45/90 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-104) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.421 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-107) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
Base projection 2.42 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/79 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/40 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/39 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 47/79 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-149) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.325 (63 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/112 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 56/112 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-123) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.467 (60 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-122) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.361, xSLG 0.463 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 52/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-115) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/104 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 57/104 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+115) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.526 (140 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 65/115 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-117) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.448, xSLG 0.670 (35 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/109 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 48/109 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (-107) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.449 (126 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/109 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 48/109 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-132) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.390 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 62/108 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 2.5 (-155) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-147) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.470 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/111 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 53/111 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-143) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/111 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/57 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 57/111 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-132) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-132	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-113) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.500, xSLG 0.808 (22 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/94 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 46/94 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-129) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.551 (10 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 12 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/111 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 34/55 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.58 | Day Batter HRR: 60/111 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-117) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 55/106 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-142) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.220, xSLG 0.289 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 55/113 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-152) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.314 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/111 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 53/111 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+101) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +101; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.415 (111 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 35/55 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter HRR: 62/109 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-134) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.544 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 57/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-105) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 31/61 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 59/114 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-111) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.424 (168 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 55/113 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-110) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.302 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/107 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 63/107 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-122) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.364 (139 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-105) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.297 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 20 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 5.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.137
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-124) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/60 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 61/113 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-121) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.386 (159 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 15 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/112 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 53/112 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-116) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.485 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 45/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-124) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.372, xSLG 0.501 (21 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+104) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.438 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+123) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.584 (41 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 59/103 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-115) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.584 (41 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 59/103 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-116) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.374, xSLG 0.539 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-113) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/96 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 49/96 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-116) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/113 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 53/113 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (-102) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.359 (156 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 18 PA | 5/15 | HR 0 | K% 38.9% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.044
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+111) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 3.21 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.63
Base projection 2.63 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.504, xSLG 0.732 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/113 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/58 over 2.5 (60%), avg 3.02 | Away Batter HRR: 19/55 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 54/113 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-116) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.123, xSLG 0.089 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 57/109 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (-112) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.211, xSLG 0.260 (63 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 54/97 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 54/97 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-119) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.505 (47 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .821
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/89 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 40/89 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+103) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.422 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/108 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 56/108 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Under 2.5 (-144) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.83 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.492 (12 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/98 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/50 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 36/48 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 74/98 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-122) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.194, xSLG 0.264 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 56/110 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-116) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.365 (85 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/109 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 33/55 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 60/109 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-125) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 11 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .990
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 60/114 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-101) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.155
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/83 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 44/83 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-143) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 19 PA | 5/18 | HR 0 | K% 21.1% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .760
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/109 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 47/109 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+126) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.288 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-128) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.398 (19 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/82 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 39/82 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-110) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/112 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 54/112 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-134) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.349 (19 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (-146) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.469 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/106 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 47/106 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+113) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (-109) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.224 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/92 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 46/92 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-105) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.263 (83 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/109 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 53/109 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+120) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.190, xSLG 0.216 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/109 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 59/109 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+118) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.181, xSLG 0.227 (19 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 9 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.389
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/104 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 47/104 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-114) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-142) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/109 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.53 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/109 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-146) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.395 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 57/110 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 2.5 (-133) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.96 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.440, xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/109 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 17/53 over 2.5 (32%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 44/109 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+107) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.290 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Under 2.5 (-141) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.05 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.281 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/106 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/57 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 34/49 under 2.5 (69%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 76/106 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-120) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.343 (39 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/84 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/43 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 40/84 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-101) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.262 (17 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-112) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/105 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 57/105 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Young Over 1.5 (+116) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-120) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+100) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.202, xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/106 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 53/106 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+114) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.202, xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/106 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 53/106 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (+102) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.311 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/93 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 22/42 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 48/93 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-160) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.186, xSLG 0.199 (45 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/109 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 69/109 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+113) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/111 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 57/111 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+106) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +106; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 54/106 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Under 2.5 (-163) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.17 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.279 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 under 2.5 (54%), avg 2.74 | Away Batter HRR: 35/49 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 62/99 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 2.5 (-139) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.17 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.383 (74 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/112 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/55 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 37/57 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 76/112 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Under 2.5 (-143) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.17 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.302 (15 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/104 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/49 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 under 2.5 (47%), avg 2.62 | Day Batter HRR: 55/104 under 2.5 (53%), avg 2.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 2.5 (-135) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.82 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.402 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/113 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/59 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 45/113 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (-101) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.297 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/82 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 40/82 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-127) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/94 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 41/94 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Under 2.5 (-149) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.24 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.253 (44 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 17 PA | 4/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.9% | BB% 17.6% | OPS .855
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 38/57 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 73/114 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-107) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-112) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.141, xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 62/105 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (-103) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 45/106 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Under 2.5 (-145) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.26 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 23 PA | 3/19 | HR 1 | K% 21.7% | BB% 17.4% | OPS .620
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/54 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.35 | Away Batter HRR: 35/54 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 69/108 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 2.5 (-153) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.26 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/95 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/49 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 31/46 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 60/95 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (-129) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-119) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-115) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-107) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyrone Taylor Over 1.5 (+115) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+113) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.279 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Over 1.5 (+115) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.543 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .933
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 34/95 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/49 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 34/95 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-109) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.287 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-133) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.173, xSLG 0.148 (12 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .970
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 (-112) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.324 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/101 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/54 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter HRR: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 36/101 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+118) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/112 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 46/112 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+105) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.186, xSLG 0.201 (64 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 48/105 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Over 1.5 (+110) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.179, xSLG 0.277 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/113 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 47/113 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+109) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+109	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+113) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+113	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+126) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+129) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (-118) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-161) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-148) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (-120) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Sullivan Over 1.5 (-104) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (+132) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+125	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.223 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/112 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 54/112 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-120) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (-115) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (-112) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (-104) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Tena Over 1.5 (+120) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 2.5 (-126) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.63 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.391 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/110 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/56 over 2.5 (43%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 20/54 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 44/110 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-128) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-104) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+104) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+107) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Owen Caissie Over 1.5 (+121) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-102) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.207, xSLG 0.219 (41 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-141) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.449 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 70/105 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Under 2.5 (-165) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.41 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.438 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 18 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .863
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/56 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.55 | Away Batter HRR: 40/55 under 2.5 (73%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 72/111 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-152) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-123) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+104) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+109) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Osuna Over 1.5 (+122) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Foscue Over 1.5 (+131) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (-108) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-106) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+101) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+121) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+122) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Peters Over 1.5 (+131) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-129) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-122) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (-109) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (-105) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+100) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (+115) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Kreidler Over 1.5 (+121) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Isbel Over 1.5 (+124) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Under 2.5 (-170) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.42 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/106 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 37/56 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 63/106 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-148) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (-122) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-121) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (-117) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (-109) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (-105) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-103) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+107) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (+115) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Donovan Walton Over 1.5 (+118) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt McLain Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (+137) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.277 (33 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (+105) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-104) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-124) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Polanco Under 1.5 (-165) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-121) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/87 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 54/87 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-102) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.175, xSLG 0.212 (11 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 51/108 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-165) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+109) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+112) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-107) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+111) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 (+118) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-161) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.229 (18 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/102 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 under 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter HRR: 59/102 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-128) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Lombard Jr. Over 1.5 (-103) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+108) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+108) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+114) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 (+116) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (-109) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-102) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremiah Jackson Over 1.5 (+103) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+106) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +106; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+114) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+121) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+127) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis d'Arnaud Over 1.5 (+132) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 2.5 (-105) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.52 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.243 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 39/102 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/50 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 22/52 over 2.5 (42%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 39/102 over 2.5 (38%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (-141) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-134) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (-103) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+102) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+104) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James McCann Over 1.5 (+105) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+113) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (+118) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (+130) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-118) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.262 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/53 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 61/110 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nasim Nunez Under 1.5 (-154) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.220, xSLG 0.215 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/106 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 64/106 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 266 play(s) (C 261 | D 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 470.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 470.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.732 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/58 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 80/113 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.34

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 471% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-140) diff 357.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 357.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 77/109 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.78

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 358% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 306.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 306.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 84/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/56 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 40/54 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 84/110 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.93

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 307% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 (-165) diff 284.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 284.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.623 (114 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 72/106 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.92

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-165) diff 278.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 278.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/111 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 69/111 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.70

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 278% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 (-180) diff 241.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.421 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 70/108 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.52

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 242% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rortvedt Over 0.5 (-120) diff 232.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 232% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 (-170) diff 231.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 231.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.380 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/57 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 78/113 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.72

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 (-165) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 (-120) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-160) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 0.5 (-130) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-130) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-130) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 (-165) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Flores Over 0.5 (+100) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (+110) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 0.5 (+110) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Tena Over 0.5 (-145) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-145	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-120) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 0.5 (-190) diff 219.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.155
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 56/83 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 25/35 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 56/83 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.58

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-165) diff 219.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/109 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 65/109 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.60

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-200) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-160) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-130) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-180) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-150) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-130) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-120) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cameron Cauley Over 0.5 (-140) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Foscue Over 0.5 (-140) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-180) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (-120) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (-130) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (-120) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-190) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — John Rave Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +138; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-140) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 (-180) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 (-190) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 (-180) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brendan Donovan Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-110) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-160) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-130) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 0.5 (-150) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-165) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-165) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-190) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 0.5 (-165) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ali Sanchez Over 0.5 (-112) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-140) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremiah Jackson Over 0.5 (-192) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -192

Selected market: Over 61.7% / Under 38.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-180) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (-140) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-150) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-165) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (-130) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-135) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-103) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-165) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-140) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jase Bowen Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James McCann Over 0.5 (-165) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-130) diff 203.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.577 (35 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .476
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/102 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 62/102 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.70

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-160) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.288 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 66/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 66/111 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-160) diff 197.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 197.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 (-130) diff 197.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 197.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 (-180) diff 195.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 195.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/53 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 73/109 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 195.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 195.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 196% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 0.5 (-190) diff 192.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 192.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 80/111 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 192.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 192.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 192% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 0.5 (-180) diff 180.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.290 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 66/112 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 66/112 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-180) diff 180.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/114 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-140) diff 180.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/114 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-165) diff 175.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 175.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/106 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/49 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 64/106 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 175.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 175.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 175% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (-180) diff 173.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 173.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/82 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/42 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 24/40 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 49/82 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 173.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 173.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 174% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-160) diff 167.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/58 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 58/113 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 167.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 168% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-180) diff 167.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.543 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .933
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/95 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 25/46 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 49/95 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 167.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 168% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (-140) diff 167.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.223 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 62/112 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 167.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 168% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-180) diff 161.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 161.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.216 (32 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 39/55 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 77/109 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 161.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 161.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 162% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-165) diff 145.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.279 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/56 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 67/111 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (-180) diff 141.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 141.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.262 (17 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/107 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 33/53 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 64/107 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 141.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 141.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (-165) diff 140.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.201 (64 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/105 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 58/105 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 140.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 140.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-190) diff 135.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 135.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 135.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 135.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-165) diff 127.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.229 (18 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/49 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 60/102 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-120) diff 121.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 121.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (33 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/60 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 70/112 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 121.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 121.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 102.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 102.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.07
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.347 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter TB: 55/108 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 102.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 102.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-109) diff 90.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -109; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 90.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.732 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/58 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 55/113 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.34

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-160) diff 81.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.199 (45 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 54/109 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 81.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 81.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.85
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.215 (40 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 55/106 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+151) diff 52.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	-
Caesars	1.5	+157	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+151	-202	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-168) diff 52.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-164	+122	-
DK	1.5	-168	+126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+118) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.419 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/111 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter TB: 49/111 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+115) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.537 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/113 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 60/113 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-107) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 23 PA | 3/19 | HR 1 | K% 21.7% | BB% 17.4% | OPS .620
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/108 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 46/108 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+115) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (58 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 47/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+104) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+104	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.673 (29 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/93 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/93 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+108) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.382 (159 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/114 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 54/114 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+112) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.473 (68 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/109 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 49/109 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-101) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-181) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 70/105 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-106) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/104 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 43/104 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+130) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/111 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 51/111 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-162) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	-
DK	1.5	-162	+122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/110 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 47/110 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+134) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.596 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/104 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter TB: 45/104 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+120) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.300 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 37/90 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 37/90 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-126) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/95 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 45/95 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-106) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -106; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/106 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 51/106 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+138) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/105 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+121) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (60 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+111) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.434 (119 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .586
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/97 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 42/97 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-201) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.219 (41 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 72/106 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+110) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+110	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.441 (75 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/113 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 54/113 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-102) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.438 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 18 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .863
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 41/111 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+118) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.381 (43 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 42/109 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-180) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.262 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 73/110 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-106) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.253 (44 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 17 PA | 4/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.9% | BB% 17.6% | OPS .855
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/114 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 47/114 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+116) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.463 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/101 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 45/101 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-165) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.258 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 77/108 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+104) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.405 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .891
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 43/109 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+115) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/111 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 43/111 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+120) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/111 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 43/111 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+119) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (64 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+106) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.384 (11 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.622
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/113 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 47/113 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-121) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.302 (15 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+124) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.515 (53 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+131) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/114 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 47/114 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-120) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.243 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/102 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 40/102 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Under 1.5 (-180) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (59 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 68/100 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 68/100 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-176) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/105 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 68/105 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+120) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.485 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/99 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 40/99 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-183) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/94 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/40 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 66/94 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-175) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 69/108 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+115) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.551 (10 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 12 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/111 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter TB: 52/111 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-195) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 1.5 -180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/105 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 60/105 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+115) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.505 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .821
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 32/89 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/43 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 17/46 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 32/89 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+117) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.390 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-202) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+144	-193	-
DK	1.5	+151	-202	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 30/54 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 68/107 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-177) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/92 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/46 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 28/46 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 57/92 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+126) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/104 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 45/104 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-120) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter TB: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+130) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/79 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/40 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 31/79 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+148) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 19 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 26.3% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .957
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/90 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/46 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 16/44 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 33/90 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+122) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.539 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/110 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 42/110 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+103) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.349 (19 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 42/105 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+104) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.325 (63 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+106) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/111 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 43/111 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+122) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.808 (22 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/94 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 35/94 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+123) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+124) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+128) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+133) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+130) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+102) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.470 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 44/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-102) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.289 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/113 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 42/113 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+102) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.314 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 41/111 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+127) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.670 (35 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/109 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 37/109 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (+121) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.501 (21 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 40/106 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-111) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (74 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+132) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+132	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.584 (41 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 38/103 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 38/103 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-146) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.469 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 69/106 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-195) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+147	-200	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.324 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/101 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 68/101 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-193) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.311 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/93 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 24/42 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 53/93 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-206) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+153	-206	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.415 (111 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/109 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 26/55 under 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 59/109 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+140) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+148	-200	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+144) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-115) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (-103) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+100) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (+142) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+150) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+119) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+134) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+147) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-186) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 73/114 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+116) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+143) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leo Jimenez Over 1.5 (+171) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-149) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/82 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/41 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 26/41 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 51/82 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.438 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/111 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 52/111 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-160) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 19 PA | 5/18 | HR 0 | K% 21.1% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .760
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 74/109 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+113) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/113 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 46/113 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+109) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.264 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/110 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 42/110 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-193) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 75/113 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+129) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/112 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 41/112 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-101) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.395 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/110 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 45/110 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.297 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 20 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 5.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.137
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/108 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 41/108 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+102) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+129) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-178) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 11 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .990
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 75/114 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.526 (140 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/115 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 45/115 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+136) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-147) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.148 (12 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .970
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 68/106 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 68/106 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-175) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (85 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/109 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 66/109 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Under 1.5 (-200) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.422 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/108 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 67/108 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+113) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+122) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+125) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+129) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+141) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.424 (168 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/113 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 40/113 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+122) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/96 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 44/96 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+109) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+109	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +131 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +131 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+130) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+174) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +174

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-189) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.386 (159 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 15 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/112 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 72/112 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-113) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.281 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 40/106 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Under 1.5 (-188) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.449 (126 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/109 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 75/109 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+132) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/106 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/51 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 41/106 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+140) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Under 1.5 (-190) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.263 (83 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 70/109 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+122) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+146) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+150) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Under 1.5 (-184) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.260 (63 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/97 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 56/97 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+117) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+143) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+136) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.343 (39 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 31/84 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/43 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 31/84 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+129) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.364 (139 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/57 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 41/111 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-175) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.089 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/109 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 65/109 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 40/108 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 40/108 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-139) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 57/109 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-142) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-147) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-195) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 (-114) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.492 (12 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/98 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/50 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 13/48 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 26/98 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+117) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.544 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/113 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/58 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 38/113 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Under 1.5 (-190) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/107 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/56 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 61/107 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-160) diff 151.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 59/112 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 151.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-170) diff 145.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.212 (11 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/108 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/52 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 68/108 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-165) diff 134.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 134.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.449 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/54 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 54/105 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 134.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-130) diff 133.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 133.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/53 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 53/102 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 133.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-190) diff 130.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 32/51 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 66/106 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 130.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-118) edge 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -118

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 6 books | 7.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 7.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7	-130	-	-
BetRivers	7	-118	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-115	-	Recommended
DK	7	-118	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-120	-	-
MyBookie	7	-118	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	+110	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+110	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+112	-	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	7.5	+110	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 9.4 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Kyle Harrison (LHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

⚠ ⚠ High Total edge 27% (≥25%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.5 8.5 (-101) edge 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 8 -113 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -101

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8.5

Line distribution: 8 at 5 books | 8.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 8 -113 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 8.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	8	-120	-	-
BetRivers	8	-113	-	Recommended
BetUS	8	-120	-	-
LowVig	8	-118	-	-
MyBookie	8	-119	-	-
BetMGM	8.5	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	8.5	+100	-	-
DK	8.5	-101	-	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-102	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

[OUT] Cody Bradford (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Cody Bradford (LHP) | opp wRC+ 92 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Carson Whisenhunt (LHP) | opp wRC+ 120 vs LHP (tough)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Home SP (Cody Bradford) stats unavailable — used league avg
Carson Whisenhunt small sample (19 IP) — stats 23% actual / 77% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ F5 Total — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 6.5 6.5 (-125) edge 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5) | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -125

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 6 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is MyBookie Under 6 -101; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
MyBookie	6	-121	-101	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
FanDuel	6.5	-104	-125	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

F5 model: 5.3 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Tomoyuki Sugano xFIP 4.20
Nick Martinez xFIP 4.20
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 104)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)
Away SP: Nick Martinez (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-138) edge 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 4 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4 +102; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	3.5	-138	+106	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	4	+102	-122	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Kyle Harrison xFIP 4.20
Paul Skenes xFIP 4.20
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kyle Harrison (LHP)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-115) edge 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-110	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	-
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-115	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.20
Jake Irvin xFIP 4.20
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)
Away SP: Jake Irvin (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 49.7% (3 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-140) edge 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5	-125	-105	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-140	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Mitch Bratt xFIP 4.20
Casey Mize xFIP 4.20
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 98)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 97)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mitch Bratt (LHP)
Away SP: Casey Mize (RHP)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-128) edge 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5	-120	+100	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5	-125	-105	-
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-128	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Rhett Lowder xFIP 4.20
Jacob Lopez xFIP 4.20
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Rhett Lowder (RHP)
Away SP: Jacob Lopez (LHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 ML — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — San Francisco Giants (+158) edge 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (F5) | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct +160 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +158

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct +160 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Cody Bradford (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Home SP TBD
Carson Whisenhunt xFIP 4.20
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cody Bradford (LHP)
Away SP: Carson Whisenhunt (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Toronto Blue Jays (+160) edge 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (F5) | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +161 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +160

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +161 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
Hunter Brown xFIP 4.20
Jameson Taillon xFIP 4.20
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Hunter Brown (RHP)
Away SP: Jameson Taillon (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Washington Nationals (+130) edge 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +140 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +130

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +140 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.20
Jake Irvin xFIP 4.20
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)
Away SP: Jake Irvin (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

▸ NRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake NRFI — NRFI (+132) edge 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +132

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.487
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0462 after 0.0100 buffer
Jake Irvin / Andrew Painter announced and matched

▸ YRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake YRFI — YRFI (+128) edge 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +128

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0449 after 0.0100 buffer
Paul Skenes / Kyle Harrison announced and matched

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-143) edge 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers San Francisco Giants 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -143

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: BetRivers San Francisco Giants 1.5 -137 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✗!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[OUT] Cody Bradford (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+7.82/$100
✓ Cover prob 63.4% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 7.1% ≥ 5%
✓ San Francisco Giants away RL 83% (6 bets)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -143 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Cody Bradford (LHP) | opp wRC+ 92 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Carson Whisenhunt (LHP) | opp wRC+ 120 vs LHP (tough)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Home SP (Cody Bradford) stats unavailable — used league avg
Carson Whisenhunt small sample (19 IP) — stats 23% actual / 77% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 50% (6 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

▸ Batter HR — 255 play(s) (C 255)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 98.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0095
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/105 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 104/105 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 98.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0094
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.215 (40 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/106 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 105/106 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0300
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (59 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/100 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 97/100 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James McCann Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 13.0% / Under 87.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — John Rave Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-450) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0377
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/106 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 102/106 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.281 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/106 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/49 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 106/106 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0377
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/106 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/50 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 102/106 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0550
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.199 (45 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 103/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0550
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.415 (111 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.219 (41 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/106 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/106 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 89.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0526
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 11 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .990
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 108/114 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 108/114 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 89.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0556
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 102/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (33 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/112 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/60 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 105/112 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0588
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.229 (18 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/102 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 96/102 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0648
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.347 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 102/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0645
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.311 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 87/93 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 87/93 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.386 (159 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 15 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/112 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 105/112 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0721
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/111 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 103/111 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0784
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/102 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/102 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0748
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.262 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (74 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/112 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 105/112 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.216 (32 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/109 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 100/109 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-800) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0693
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.324 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/101 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/101 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/104 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 97/104 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0952
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/105 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 95/105 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0870
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/92 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 84/92 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 83.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.297 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 20 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 5.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.137
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/108 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/108 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 83.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0935
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.262 (17 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/107 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 97/107 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 82.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.258 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/108 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/108 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 82.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0857
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.449 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/105 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 97/105 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0849
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.469 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0926
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.422 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-800) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1009
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.089 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/109 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/109 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 81.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1048
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/105 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 95/105 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0973
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.544 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0991
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.364 (139 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/111 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 101/111 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1098
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 74/82 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 74/82 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1062
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/113 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/113 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/99 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 89/99 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 77.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1161
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.371 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/112 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/112 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1228
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/114 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/114 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1228
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/114 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/114 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1228
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/114 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/114 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 85/96 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1220
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 73/82 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 73/82 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1171
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/111 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/111 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-750) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1277
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/94 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 83/94 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1284
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (85 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1321
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1101
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.670 (35 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/109 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 98/109 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.212 (11 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/108 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/108 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 19 PA | 5/18 | HR 0 | K% 21.1% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .760
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-800) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.526 (140 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1150
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/113 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 101/113 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1495
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.201 (64 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/105 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/105 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1019
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (58 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-750) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1239
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.289 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/113 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 102/113 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.390 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1340
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.260 (63 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 85/97 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 85/97 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.551 (10 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 12 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1239
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.424 (168 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-650) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.395 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 95/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.290 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-600) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.438 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1263
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.543 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .933
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/95 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 83/95 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.263 (83 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/109 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 94/109 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1743
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-600) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1743
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1446
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.155
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/83 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 71/83 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 70.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1368
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/95 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 83/95 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1238
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/105 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 93/105 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1509
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.148 (12 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .970
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/106 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 90/106 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 19 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 26.3% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .957
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/90 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 79/90 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-600) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1273
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/110 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/110 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.470 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1772
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 67/79 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 67/79 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1604
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/106 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 90/106 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.421 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1553
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.584 (41 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-700) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.501 (21 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/106 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 91/106 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1607
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/112 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 95/112 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1681
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.380 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/113 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 95/113 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1560
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.449 (126 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/109 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 96/109 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1786
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.223 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/112 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 93/112 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.438 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 18 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .863
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1593
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.441 (75 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/113 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 97/113 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-650) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.264 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-650) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.405 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .891
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1651
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 92/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-650) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.492 (12 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1593
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.384 (11 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.622
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/113 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 97/113 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-750) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.539 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1471
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.243 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-600) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1714
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.349 (19 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/105 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/105 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1869
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (64 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/107 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 89/107 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1798
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.505 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .821
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/89 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 76/89 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-500) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2035
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/60 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 90/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-600) diff 62.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1683
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.463 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/101 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 86/101 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-600) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1915
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.808 (22 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 77/94 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 77/94 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-600) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.325 (63 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 90/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-750) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2162
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.288 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/111 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 88/111 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/114 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 93/114 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-350) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.302 (15 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/104 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 80/104 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1959
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.434 (119 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .586
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/97 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 78/97 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-500) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1935
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.673 (29 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/93 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 76/93 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1982
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2262
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.343 (39 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/84 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/43 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 66/84 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1743
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.408 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.381 (43 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-700) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2212
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.515 (53 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/104 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 82/104 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2358
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/106 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 82/106 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2358
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.122 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/106 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 82/106 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-600) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2072
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.314 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/111 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 90/111 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-650) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2105
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.382 (159 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/114 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 92/114 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-750) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2170
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.623 (114 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1982
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/111 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 90/111 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2264
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (60 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-375) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2105
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.253 (44 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 17 PA | 4/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.9% | BB% 17.6% | OPS .855
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/114 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 91/114 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-600) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2162
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.95x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2162
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2308
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.596 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/104 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 83/104 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-750) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.300 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/90 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 71/90 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-600) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2523
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.419 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 85/111 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2743
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.537 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/113 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 85/113 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-600) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2844
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.473 (68 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/47 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 79/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-400) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3173
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/104 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 79/104 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-275) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3056
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 23 PA | 3/19 | HR 1 | K% 21.7% | BB% 17.4% | OPS .620
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/108 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 80/108 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-285) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2832
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.402 (17 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/113 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 85/113 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-375) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3097
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.732 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 83/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.380/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.380/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3097
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.732 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 17 PA | 5/15 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .945
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 83/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.380/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.380/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-118	51.7%	78.5%	+26.8%	$+45.12	9	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	Total	Over 8.5	DK	-101	48.0%	64.8%	+16.8%	$+28.97	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Over 7.0 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +26.8%

[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 9.4 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Kyle Harrison (LHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.5 — San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (Total) +16.8%

[OUT] Cody Bradford (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Cody Bradford (LHP) | opp wRC+ 92 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Carson Whisenhunt (LHP) | opp wRC+ 120 vs LHP (tough)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Home SP (Cody Bradford) stats unavailable — used league avg
Carson Whisenhunt small sample (19 IP) — stats 23% actual / 77% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

9 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	3:11 PM	F5 Total	Under 6.5	FanDuel	-125	52.1%	69.0%	+16.8%	$+24.18	2	Bet on DK
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5)	7:40 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-138	54.4%	68.6%	+14.1%	$+18.25	2	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (F5)	2:36 PM	F5 ML	San Francisco Giants	FanDuel	+158	36.8%	49.2%	+12.5%	$+26.99	3	Bet on DK
C	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-115	50.2%	62.3%	+12.0%	$+16.39	2	Bet on DK
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (F5)	2:10 PM	F5 ML	Toronto Blue Jays	DK	+160	36.2%	48.1%	+11.9%	$+25.18	5	Bet on DK
C	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-140	54.8%	65.0%	+10.2%	$+11.37	1	Bet on DK
B	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	2:21 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-120	51.2%	61.2%	+10.0%	$+12.17	2	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (F5)	6:40 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-128	52.6%	61.2%	+8.5%	$+8.98	2	Bet on DK
C	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	DK	+130	41.1%	49.4%	+8.3%	$+13.56	4	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (9 play(s))

C Under 6.5 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 Total) +16.8%

F5 model: 5.3 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Tomoyuki Sugano xFIP 4.20
Nick Martinez xFIP 4.20
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 104)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)
Away SP: Nick Martinez (RHP)

C Over 3.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) (F5 Total) +14.1%

[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Kyle Harrison xFIP 4.20
Paul Skenes xFIP 4.20
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kyle Harrison (LHP)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP)

C San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (F5) (F5 ML) +12.5%

[OUT] Cody Bradford (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Home SP TBD
Carson Whisenhunt xFIP 4.20
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cody Bradford (LHP)
Away SP: Carson Whisenhunt (LHP)

C Under 5.5 — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 Total) +12.0%

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.20
Jake Irvin xFIP 4.20
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)
Away SP: Jake Irvin (RHP)

C Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (F5) (F5 ML) +11.9%

Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
Hunter Brown xFIP 4.20
Jameson Taillon xFIP 4.20
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Hunter Brown (RHP)
Away SP: Jameson Taillon (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) (F5 Total) +10.2%

F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Mitch Bratt xFIP 4.20
Casey Mize xFIP 4.20
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 98)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 97)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mitch Bratt (LHP)
Away SP: Casey Mize (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 Total) +10.0%

F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Shota Imanaga xFIP 4.20
Eric Lauer xFIP 4.20
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 107)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shota Imanaga (LHP)
Away SP: Eric Lauer (LHP)

C Under 5.5 — Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) (F5 Total) +8.5%

F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Rhett Lowder xFIP 4.20
Jacob Lopez xFIP 4.20
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Rhett Lowder (RHP)
Away SP: Jacob Lopez (LHP)

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 ML) +8.3%

Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.20
Jake Irvin xFIP 4.20
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)
Away SP: Jake Irvin (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros

2:10 PM · decision fi-da4306531b7da78e

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.0% / YRFI 50.0%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jameson Taillon · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Hunter Brown · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.500
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jameson Taillon / Hunter Brown announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.500

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJameson Taillon / Hunter Brown announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-127	-104	52.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-115	49.8%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs

2:21 PM · decision fi-b870be93a28b4dc2

NRFI · Grade B

2026 Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Executable Price

FanDuel +124

Raw / Effective Edge

+6.2% / +5.2%

Away starter: Eric Lauer · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Shota Imanaga · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
Grade B: NRFI effective edge 0.0516 after 0.0100 buffer
Eric Lauer / Shota Imanaga announced and matched

Grade B reflects effective edge plus 4 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · PASSGrade B: NRFI effective edge 0.0516 after 0.0100 buffer

Starter status · PASSEric Lauer / Shota Imanaga announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+108	-143	45.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+107	-143	45.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+124	-158	42.2%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+105	-135	45.9%	ACCEPTED

San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers

2:36 PM · decision fi-3280e7aa5ff8de03

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 48.7% / YRFI 51.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Carson Whisenhunt · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cody Bradford · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.487
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Carson Whisenhunt / Cody Bradford announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.487

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCarson Whisenhunt / Cody Bradford announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-117	-114	50.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED

Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies

3:11 PM · decision fi-3cce17b98576c529

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 44.6% / YRFI 55.4%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Nick Martinez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tomoyuki Sugano · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.446
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Nick Martinez / Tomoyuki Sugano announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.446

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSNick Martinez / Tomoyuki Sugano announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	+135	-180	39.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+134	-172	40.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+130	-160	41.4%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles

6:36 PM · decision fi-45696729c50d9bd6

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.2% / YRFI 48.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Reid Detmers · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Trevor Rogers · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Reid Detmers / Trevor Rogers announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSReid Detmers / Trevor Rogers announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-119	-111	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds

6:40 PM · decision fi-712c72705d65d2cb

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 48.7% / YRFI 51.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jacob Lopez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Rhett Lowder · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.487
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jacob Lopez / Rhett Lowder announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.487

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJacob Lopez / Rhett Lowder announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+102	-134	46.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians

6:40 PM · decision fi-2d4f779a05691038

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.4% / YRFI 48.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Christian Scott · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tanner Bibee · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Christian Scott / Tanner Bibee announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSChristian Scott / Tanner Bibee announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:41 PM · decision fi-7224ff06d08a28cf

NRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

48.7%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Executable Price

FanDuel +132

Raw / Effective Edge

+5.6% / +4.6%

Away starter: Jake Irvin · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Andrew Painter · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.487
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0462 after 0.0100 buffer
Jake Irvin / Andrew Painter announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 4 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.487

Executable price · PASSGrade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0462 after 0.0100 buffer

Starter status · PASSJake Irvin / Andrew Painter announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+112	-149	44.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+114	-152	43.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+132	-170	40.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees

7:06 PM · decision fi-ece5ece85d024a03

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.3% / YRFI 49.7%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Andre Pallante · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Will Warren · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.503
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Andre Pallante / Will Warren announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.503

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSAndre Pallante / Will Warren announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-111	-119	49.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

7:11 PM · decision fi-dd1aa28d826ab072

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.6% / YRFI 49.4%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Sean Burke · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Sonny Gray · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sean Burke / Sonny Gray announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSean Burke / Sonny Gray announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-143	+108	55.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-141	+107	54.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-136	+106	54.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-7e0aaf7699e2b9fb

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.8% / YRFI 49.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Eury Pérez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bryce Elder · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Eury Pérez / Bryce Elder announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSEury Pérez / Bryce Elder announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-104	-129	47.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

7:40 PM · decision fi-78979570553b1e12

YRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Executable Price

BetOnline +128

Raw / Effective Edge

+5.5% / +4.5%

Away starter: Paul Skenes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kyle Harrison · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0449 after 0.0100 buffer
Paul Skenes / Kyle Harrison announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 4 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · PASSGrade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0449 after 0.0100 buffer

Starter status · PASSPaul Skenes / Kyle Harrison announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-169	+128	58.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-150	+112	56.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-150	+118	56.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-145	+115	56.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals

7:41 PM · decision fi-4b0b82bdb4fd1c88

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.8% / YRFI 50.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Dean Kremer · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Noah Cameron · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Dean Kremer / Noah Cameron announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDean Kremer / Noah Cameron announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:41 PM · decision fi-d4ea427fd50e8dba

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 48.7% / YRFI 51.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Casey Mize · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Mitch Bratt · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.487
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Casey Mize / Mitch Bratt announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.487

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCasey Mize / Mitch Bratt announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	+105	-139	45.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners

9:41 PM · decision fi-b43b12b5142c219b

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.5% / YRFI 48.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Drew Anderson · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bryan Woo · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-04 · updated 2026-08-05T09:40:06.150955Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Drew Anderson / Bryan Woo announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.515

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDrew Anderson / Bryan Woo announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 255 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=255
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	-	Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	theScore Bet	+200	-	36.0%	31.1%	+5.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Eury Pérez (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	35.9%	21.7%	+14.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	2:10 PM	-	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	33.4%	27.1%	+6.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Andrew Painter (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	32.4%	21.7%	+10.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Bryce Elder (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	32.0%	21.7%	+10.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-	Eric Lauer (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	30.3%	21.7%	+8.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	-	Sonny Gray (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	30.0%	21.7%	+8.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	29.5%	27.1%	+2.4%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	-	Nick Martinez (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	29.2%	26.3%	+2.9%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	-	Rhett Lowder (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	29.1%	21.7%	+7.4%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-	Andre Pallante (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	28.1%	21.7%	+6.3%	94	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Eury Pérez (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	27.8%	18.4%	+9.4%	93	-
Best HR Chance	Christian Walker	Houston Astros	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	2:10 PM	-	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	27.6%	18.4%	+9.2%	92	-
Strong HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+185	-	27.6%	32.4%	-4.8%	92	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	27.3%	21.7%	+5.6%	91	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-	Eric Lauer (L)	theScore Bet	+340	-	27.1%	20.8%	+6.3%	90	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	26.8%	23.1%	+3.7%	89	-
Best HR Chance	Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Mitch Bratt (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	26.7%	21.7%	+4.9%	89	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	-	Carson Whisenhunt (L)	theScore Bet	+340	-	26.5%	20.8%	+5.7%	88	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-	Dean Kremer (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	26.5%	21.7%	+4.7%	88	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	100	86.5%	-642	Jake Burger, Brandon Nimmo, Rafael Devers, Osleivis Basabe	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	100	86.5%	-639	Junior Caminero, Hunter Goodman, Jonathan Aranda, Willi Castro	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5%	-
Watchlist	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	85.3%	-582	Ben Rice, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, Heliot Ramos	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18	-
Watchlist	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	100	85.2%	-573	CJ Abrams, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	100	84.7%	-553	Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05	-
Watchlist	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	100	84.6%	-550	Tyler Soderstrom, Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	84.6%	-549	Matt Olson, Kyle Stowers, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	2:10 PM	100	84.4%	-540	Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Kazuma Okamoto, Yainer Diaz	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	100	84.2%	-531	Miguel Vargas, Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Colson Montgomery	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	100	84.1%	-530	Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Coby Mayo, Pete Alonso	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	100	84.1%	-529	Brandon Lowe, Jackson Chourio, Bryan Reynolds, Brice Turang	American Family Field HR factor 1.08	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	97	83.9%	-521	Eddy Alvarez, Francisco Lindor, Patrick Bailey, A.J. Ewing	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	83.9%	-520	Ildemaro Vargas, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Ty France	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	100	83.9%	-519	Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen, Salvador Perez, John Rave	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	100	83.9%	-519	Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene, Dominic Canzone, Spencer Torkelson	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (+200) HR chance 36.0% | edge +5.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.283, OPS 0.925, ISO 0.269, TB/G 2.11
Statcast: barrel 13.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.521
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 28/113 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 13.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.399, xERA 7.22, whiff 18.0%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.908, ISO 0.283 (356 PA)
Park HR factor 1.20

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Matt Olson — Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (+320) HR chance 35.9% | edge +14.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.274, OPS 0.889, ISO 0.275, TB/G 2.12
Statcast: barrel 14.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.6/111.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.515
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 28/113 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.819, K% 33.3% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.931, ISO 0.305 (286 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.537, xwOBA 0.338 (56 PA)
Park HR factor 1.03

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

Best HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (+240) HR chance 33.4% | edge +6.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.310, OPS 1.087, ISO 0.315, TB/G 2.34
Statcast: barrel 18.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.5/118.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.709
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 30/113 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 20.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.366, xERA 5.86, whiff 24.9%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.945, K% 11.8% (17 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 1.162, ISO 0.335 (372 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance CJ Abrams — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (+320) HR chance 32.4% | edge +10.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.252, OPS 0.911, ISO 0.264, TB/G 2.06
Statcast: barrel 10.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.460
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 26/111 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 18.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.349, xERA 5.24, whiff 23.0%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.981, ISO 0.295 (328 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.419, xwOBA 0.332 (79 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Kyle Stowers — Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (+320) HR chance 32.0% | edge +10.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.180, OPS 0.779, ISO 0.223, TB/G 1.71
Statcast: barrel 12.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.436
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 13/89 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 20.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.309, xERA 3.99, whiff 21.5%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.821, K% 37.5% (8 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.852, ISO 0.255 (296 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Seiya Suzuki — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (+320) HR chance 30.3% | edge +8.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.196, OPS 0.850, ISO 0.208, TB/G 1.81
Statcast: barrel 10.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.1/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.422
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 19/97 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 15.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.71, whiff 18.1%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.586, K% 9.1% (11 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.061, OPS 0.991, ISO 0.263 (114 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Miguel Vargas — Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox (+320) HR chance 30.0% | edge +8.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.216, OPS 0.818, ISO 0.241, TB/G 1.77
Statcast: barrel 14.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.8/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.528
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 22/111 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 21.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.303, xERA 3.83, whiff 21.9%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.775, ISO 0.226 (337 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_rhb: HR/BF 0.0241

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Bryce Harper — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (+240) HR chance 29.5% | edge +2.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.210, OPS 0.860, ISO 0.246, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 11.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/113.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.515
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/114 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 23.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.358, xERA 5.56, whiff 24.9%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.855, K% 5.9% (17 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.994, ISO 0.324 (295 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	+750	0.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Cold recent HR form
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+700	0.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+650	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| BvP strikeout risk \| Cold recent HR form
Troy Johnston	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	+550	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+600	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Ward	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+500	0.9%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	+600	0.9%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp
Ernie Clement	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	2:10 PM	+750	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Andres Gimenez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	2:10 PM	+750	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+750	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	Bryan Woo	Drew Anderson	0.92	16.2%	45.6%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	Tanner Bibee	Christian Scott	0.95	16.1%	45.5%	-	+0.0%
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Noah Cameron	Dean Kremer	0.93	16.1%	45.6%	-	+0.0%
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Mitch Bratt	Casey Mize	1.02	16.1%	45.6%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	Trevor Rogers	Reid Detmers	1.00	15.9%	45.1%	-	+0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	Kyle Harrison	Paul Skenes	1.08	15.9%	45.2%	-	+0.0%
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Sonny Gray	Sean Burke	0.95	15.8%	45.0%	-	+0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	2:10 PM	Hunter Brown	Jameson Taillon	1.00	15.6%	44.6%	-	+0.0%
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	Rhett Lowder	Jacob Lopez	1.15	15.4%	44.2%	-	+0.0%
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Bryce Elder	Eury Pérez	1.03	15.4%	44.2%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Shota Imanaga	Eric Lauer	1.05	15.3%	44.1%	-	+0.0%
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Andrew Painter	Jake Irvin	1.10	14.9%	43.2%	-	+0.0%
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Will Warren	Andre Pallante	1.18	14.7%	42.8%	-	+0.0%
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	Cody Bradford	Carson Whisenhunt	1.10	13.5%	40.5%	-	+0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	Tomoyuki Sugano	Nick Martinez	1.20	13.5%	40.6%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	67.0	62.5	74.0	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	63.8	64.2	64.5	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	63.6	61.1	69.0	4	4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 58% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	63.3	59.6	71.0	5	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	62.1	62.9	64.5	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	58.0	56.5	63.0	6	Slider (32% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	57.9	59.0	58.0	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	57.4	60.7	56.0	6	Slider (42% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers	57.2	58.3	58.0	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	56.3	53.7	61.5	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians	55.7	56.4	57.5	6	Sweeper (32% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds	54.0	46.3	58.5	5	Slider (28% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees	50.2	42.1	58.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	50.0	46.8	56.0	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	49.8	48.5	53.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	49.6	44.9	54.5	5	Sweeper (29% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	47.6	57.3	37.5	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	46.8	52.1	42.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals	46.8	48.1	45.0	5	Changeup (30% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	46.1	48.2	45.5	6	Cutter (33% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	41.5	46.2	33.0	7	Slider (38% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	40.1	51.7	28.5	6	Curveball (42% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	38.7	43.3	32.5	6	Slider (36% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs	38.1	32.8	41.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros	37.9	52.0	24.5	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies	37.5	32.8	43.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 17.8%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	34.1	23.4	38.0	6	Slider (29% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 15.6%, put-away 8.4%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carson Whisenhunt	San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers	32.9	56.7	3.5	4	Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.408, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays	22.3	31.5	8.0	7	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 11.8%, xwOBA 0.399, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cody Bradford	Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	L	17.2%	4.0	4.1	4.8	67	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds	L	22.2%	3.7	5.0	4.7	62	short	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	R	20.3%	5.0	5.7	5.6	84	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	L	20.3%	6.0	5.5	5.6	101	deep	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	R	20.3%	6.0	5.7	5.8	101	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	23.5%	5.7	5.8	5.8	96	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	R	31.4%	6.2	6.9	6.8	104	deep	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	R	18.5%	3.4	5.2	4.8	57	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	R	16.8%	5.9	5.8	5.8	99	normal	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	13.9%	5.7	5.4	5.5	96	normal	full	8.00	92.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	R	27.0%	1.1	31.8	9.0	18	short	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.1 IP/start
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	22.4%	5.3	5.3	5.3	89	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	L	22.6%	6.4	5.8	6.0	107	deep	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	L	29.1%	5.0	5.7	5.5	84	short	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs	L	14.8%	5.8	6.3	6.2	97	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	R	26.2%	6.4	5.5	6.0	107	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	28.1%	4.7	4.9	4.9	79	short	full	69.00	31.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	R	22.3%	5.0	5.1	5.3	84	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians	R	29.5%	4.7	4.6	4.6	79	short	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	23.2%	4.7	5.2	5.1	79	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	R	18.6%	4.1	5.5	5.2	69	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	30.9%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	24.8%	5.5	5.4	5.4	92	normal	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Carson Whisenhunt	San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers	L	20.4%	4.6	4.8	5.2	77	short	full	3.50	96.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	R	24.5%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees	R	16.4%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies	R	12.5%	5.6	5.9	5.8	94	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cody Bradford	Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants	L	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros	R	21.5%	4.0	5.1	4.8	67	short	full	24.50	75.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	22.7%	4.4	4.7	4.7	74	short	full	28.50	71.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Sean Burke	Sean Burke Over	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	21.2	3.7	21.2%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.8	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Hunter Brown	Hunter Brown Under	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	17.5	15.5	-2.0	11.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.03 <= 3 min
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	15.5	-2.0	11.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min
Noah Cameron	Noah Cameron Over	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Under	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.0	-0.6	3.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Over	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	17.8	0.3	2.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.6	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

228 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Francisco Alvarez	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	3.21	1.80	0.71	0.71	3.21 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Yainer Diaz	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.88	1.66	0.61	0.61	2.96 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.65	1.09	0.69	0.86	2.68 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Seiya Suzuki	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.52	1.04	0.71	0.76	2.45 / Over	0.35	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Elly De La Cruz	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.49	1.09	0.77	0.64	2.46 / Over	0.35	season_games=93,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.47	1.07	0.74	0.66	2.39 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Hunter Goodman	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	Over 1.5	2.46	0.97	0.73	0.76	2.19 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal Stewart	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.43	0.95	0.60	0.87	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.39	1.02	0.64	0.73	2.41 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.38	1.29	0.63	0.47	2.50 / Over	0.35	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Drake Baldwin	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.34	1.04	0.68	0.63	2.45 / Over	0.35	season_games=90,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.33	1.10	0.53	0.70	2.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Matt Olson	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.33	1.04	0.69	0.60	2.37 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nathaniel Lowe	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	2.28	1.28	0.50	0.50	2.28 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.27	1.16	0.57	0.54	2.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben Rice	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.27	0.96	0.64	0.66	2.26 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	Over 1.5	2.22	1.01	0.54	0.66	2.24 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jackson Chourio	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.19	1.13	0.59	0.47	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=79,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie Albies	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.19	1.02	0.62	0.55	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Michael Harris II	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.18	1.09	0.51	0.59	2.14 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
TJ Rumfield	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	Over 1.5	2.18	1.05	0.50	0.62	2.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ceddanne Rafaela	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.17	1.10	0.54	0.53	2.05 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Willson Contreras	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.16	0.97	0.55	0.64	2.12 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ketel Marte	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.16	0.97	0.58	0.60	1.78 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yandy Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	Over 2.5	3.15	1.66	0.75	0.75	2.96 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes