MLB Bets 2026-08-04

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	895W–418L–0P	68%	-34.94 u	Last 14 days • 1313 settled
Grade A	26W–31L–0P	46%	-11.05 u
Grade B	869W–385L–0P	69%	-21.89 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3024W–1941L–8P	61%	-176.58 u	All-time • 4973 settled
Grade A	244W–189L–0P	56%	-5.86 u
Grade B	2780W–1750L–8P	61%	-168.72 u

175 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Cedric Mullins	2.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-114	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Ketel Marte	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Matt Olson	1.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Otto Lopez	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Pete Alonso	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Hits	Cedric Mullins	1.5	-267	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Hits	Josh Bell	1.5	-229	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Andres Gimenez	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Angel Martinez	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.5	-452	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Braden Montgomery	0.5	-335	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-385	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Bryson Stott	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Carter Jensen	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-390	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-470	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Chase DeLauter	0.5	-243	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-385	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Colson Montgomery	0.5	-274	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-420	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Denzer Guzman	0.5	-391	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-261	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jacob Wilson	0.5	-428	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-345	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jared Young	0.5	-408	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jeff McNeil	0.5	-289	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	John Rave	0.5	-469	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jonah Heim	0.5	-339	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-420	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-268	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-360	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Kyle Isbel	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber	0.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Lawrence Butler	0.5	-223	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-401	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Masataka Yoshida	0.5	-418	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Masyn Winn	0.5	-413	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Michael Massey	0.5	-750	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Mickey Moniak	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Mike Yastrzemski	0.5	-239	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Munetaka Murakami	0.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Nelson Velazquez	0.5	-444	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-610	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Nick Loftin	0.5	-437	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Nick Sogard	0.5	-311	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Nico Hoerner	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Nolan Schanuel	0.5	-234	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-316	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Randal Grichuk	0.5	-770	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Rhys Hoskins	0.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Richie Palacios	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Ronald Acuna Jr.	0.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Royce Lewis	0.5	-293	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Ryan Jeffers	0.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Salvador Perez	0.5	-700	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Spencer Jones	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Taylor Walls	0.5	-225	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Tommy White	0.5	-540	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Trevor Larnach	0.5	-215	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Troy Johnston	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Vaughn Grissom	0.5	-354	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Willi Castro	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	William Contreras	0.5	-269	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Wilyer Abreu	0.5	-233	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Yandy Diaz	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Yordan Alvarez	0.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	K Prop	Grayson Rodriguez	5.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	3.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	K Prop	J.T. Ginn	4.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	K Prop	Jared Jones	5.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	K Prop	Javier Assad	3.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	K Prop	Jesús Luzardo	7.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	K Prop	Sean Manaea	4.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Blade Tidwell	2.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Emerson Hancock	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Gabriel Hughes	3.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Grayson Rodriguez	2.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	2.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Jesus Luzardo	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Logan Henderson	1.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	MacKenzie Gore	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Weathers	1.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Tarik Skubal	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Troy Melton	2.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Gabriel Hughes	6.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Grant Holmes	5.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Javier Assad	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Randy Dobnak	5.5	117	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Outs	Trey Yesavage	17.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Walks	Brady Singer	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Walks	Freddy Peralta	1.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Walks	Grant Holmes	1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Walks	Grayson Rodriguez	1.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Walks	Hunter Dobbins	1.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Walks	Jesus Luzardo	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Walks	Joe Ryan	1.5	-215	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Walks	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Walks	Randy Dobnak	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Walks	Tarik Skubal	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Run Line	Chicago Cubs	+1.5	100	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Run Line	San Francisco Giants	+1.5	-125	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-03	K Prop	Ian Seymour	4.5	-139	-	WIN	+0.719	Ian Seymour: 9.0 (line 4.5)
2026-08-03	Batter H+R+RBI	Ben Rice	1.5	-136	-	LOSS	-1.000	Ben Rice: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-08-03	Batter H+R+RBI	Shohei Ohtani	1.5	-128	-	WIN	+0.781	Shohei Ohtani: 3.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	505	56%	-11.56u	63	46%	-12.32u	237	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	449	57%	+3.17u	61	44%	-13.96u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	157	57%	+1.95u	19	74%	+5.04u	43	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1464	74%	-16.16u	837	76%	-7.10u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	493	57%	-16.87u	104	51%	-13.04u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	358	61%	-6.25u	78	65%	+4.82u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	49	71%	+0.23u	12	50%	-3.67u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	3	33%	-1.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	1
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	1
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	114	47%	-12.69u	6	83%	+2.43u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	23	52%	-2.09u	22	55%	-1.09u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	559	52%	-52.81u	75	60%	+3.88u	85	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 30 total candidate(s); season N 505, 14d N 63	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 449, 14d N 61	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 157, 14d N 19	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 2 actionable / 28 total candidate(s); season N 49, 14d N 12	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 280 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 3	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 114, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 23, 14d N 22	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 4 actionable / 233 total candidate(s); season N 559, 14d N 75	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 233 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 777 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 222 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 754 pitcher(s), 3344 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 569 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 14 team(s), 126 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 375 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 968 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 126 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 8 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Athletics
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 30 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 333 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 32 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Earned Runs 30 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 144, bovada_direct 6, betmgm 2, fanatics 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 3216 market side(s) checked \| 3216 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 11 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 233 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 8 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 611 \| batter bats 399 \| batter hand splits 149 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 569 \| bullpen HR 30
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 258 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 108 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	+138	-147	1.5 (-161)	-1.5 (+133)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	+121	-129	1.5 (-179)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	+131	-140	1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:40 PM	+262	-282	1.5 (+114)	-1.5 (-137)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+180	-192	1.5 (-121)	-1.5 (+101)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+126	-134	1.5 (-179)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+132	-140	1.5 (-167)	-1.5 (+138)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	+132	-141	1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-140	+131	-1.5 (+109)	1.5 (-131)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-186	+174	-1.5 (-120)	1.5 (+100)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+171	-182	1.5 (-132)	-1.5 (+110)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	+116	-123	1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-164	+154	-1.5 (-110)	1.5 (-109)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+108	-115	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+111	-118	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

6 Grade A | 111 Grade B | 1081 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 6 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -160, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	3.5	4.9	-160	DK Over 3.5 -160 \| exact	39.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: top-six opp K% 17.5%, 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -134, lineup BVP K% 16.1% over 31 PA, lineup BVP dama…	K Prop	Sean Manaea Over	MET@GUA	6:40 PM	4.5	5.7	-134	Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120 \| best price	26.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	👀 Watch Signal Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization	Batter Walks	Yordan Alvarez Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.9	-161	DK Over 0.5 -161 \| exact	83.4%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1	Batter H+R+RBI	Matt Olson Over	MAR@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	2.6	-141	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 \| best price	76.6%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal	Run Line	Kansas City Royals +1.5	TWI@ROY	7:41 PM	1.5	-	-131	MyBookie Kansas City Royals 1.5 -127 \| best price	+15.3%	–✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal	Run Line	San Francisco Giants +1.5	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	-	-132	LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -122 \| best price	+12.7%	–✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (18 play(s))

Batter Hits - Jo Adell Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

Batter H+R+RBI - Yordan Alvarez Over

Projection: 2.5Displayed: Over 2.5 +114Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.9Recommended: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.9

Batter Total Bases - Jackson Holliday Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jonah Heim Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

F5 Total - Over 3.5

Projection: -Displayed: Over 3.5 -146Market line: majority 4 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Over 3.5 -146 | exactOwn-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4 / avg N/A

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -144Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -144 | exactOwn-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

K Prop - Hunter Dobbins Over

Projection: 5.2Displayed: Over 4.5 +129Market line: majority 3.5 | avg 3.64Recommended: BetRivers Over 3.5 -159 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.64 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.64

K Prop - Emerson Hancock Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Pitcher Earned Runs - Emerson Hancock Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Hits - Mickey Moniak Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Luis Arraez Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.3

Batter Total Bases - Kazuma Okamoto Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Javier Sanoja Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 0.5 -200Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.1Recommended: Fanatics Over 0.5 -190 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.1

Batter Total Bases - Alejandro Kirk Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Hector Rodriguez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jake Burger Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Xander Bogaerts Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Total - Over 7.0

Projection: -Displayed: Over 7 -126Market line: majority 7.5 | avg N/ARecommended: DK Over 7 -126 | exactOwn-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7Selected market: N/A

Selected line 7 is split from majority 7.5 / avg N/A

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 (-160) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-169	+129	-
BetRivers	3.5	-165	+123	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-166	+130	-
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 39.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.1% / under 41.9%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hayden Wesneski: K/9 8.4, proj 4.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 29.3% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.423 | top pitch: Sweeper (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 18.8% | AVG .167 | OPS .729
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 18.6%, L7 15.2%, season 19.4%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 84%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 15.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: 67% consensus, but diff_pct 39.0% >= 21.3% and raw gap 1.37 >= 1.00

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -160, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Sean Manaea Over 4.5 (-134) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-128	-101	-
BetRivers	4.5	-136	+102	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	Recommended
DK	4.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 26.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Sean Manaea: K/9 8.3, proj 5.7K over 7.2 IP (season 10.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 31 PA | K% 16.1% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .269 | OPS 1.041
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 16.9%, L7 19.7%, season 22.2%, top-6 17.5%, BVP 16.1%/31 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.5% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/23 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 3.83
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: top-six opp K% 17.5%, 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -134, lineup BVP K% 16.1% over 31 PA, lineup BVP damage OPS 1.041/AVG 0.269 over 31 PA -- A risk note

A Best Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-161) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
DK	0.5	-161	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 57/112 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.71
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-141) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.383, xSLG 0.549 (146 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/112 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 65/112 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.35
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-131) edge 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Kansas City Royals 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -131

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: MyBookie Kansas City Royals 1.5 -127 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model run margin: +0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+22.70/$100
✓ Cover prob 69.6% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.3% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 67% (6 bets)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -131 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joe Ryan (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 99)
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Randy Dobnak small sample (26 IP) — stats 32% actual / 68% league avg (regression applied)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-132) edge 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -132

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -122 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+18.04/$100
✓ Cover prob 67.2% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 12.7% ≥ 5%
✓ San Francisco Giants away RL 80% (5 bets)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -132 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: MacKenzie Gore (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Blade Tidwell (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 53%, bullpen 47%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Blade Tidwell small sample (12 IP) — stats 15% actual / 85% league avg (regression applied)

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (111 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — J.T. Ginn Over 4.5 (-145) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 55.0% vs 17% min; cushion +2.47K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.4% / under 44.6%)
J.T. Ginn: K/9 8.6, proj 7.0K over 5.4 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 22.3% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Lance Barksdale — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 34.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs J.T. Ginn: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .125 | OPS .489
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 23.5%, L7 31.9%, season 25.2%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 3/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.55
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ K final QC: juiced K over -145, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-157) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 5.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 5.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
BetRivers	5.5	+110	-148	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+123	-157	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 32.9% vs 17% min; cushion -1.81K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 7.1, proj 3.7K over 4.5 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 13.7% | xwOBA 0.414 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dan Merzel — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.0%, L7 23.4%, season 24.3% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.60
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jesús Luzardo Over 7.5 (-115) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.0K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 32.8% vs 17% min; cushion +2.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Jesús Luzardo: K/9 11.3, proj 10.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Sweeper (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tom Hanahan — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 88 PA | K% 33.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .742
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 88 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 26.4%, L7 19.7%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.4%/6 hitters, BVP 33.0%/88 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 67%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.90 | Season Avg 7.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
K% trend: support +4.1 ppts (recent 33.3% vs season 29.2%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jared Jones Over 5.5 (-121) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	5.5	-123	-104	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	-
DK	5.5	-121	-106	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-118	-108	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 21.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.6% / under 48.4%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jared Jones: K/9 10.0, proj 6.7K over 5.0 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 25.0% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.8%, L7 21.6%, season 21.1% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +5.8 ppts (recent 33.7% vs season 27.9%, proj adj +2.9%)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 13% usage pitch -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gabriel Hughes Under 6.5 (-146) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+120	-160	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+110	-150	-
DK	6.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.8 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 26.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.3%, L7 19.8%, season 19.1% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/5 (100%) | L20 5/5 (100%) | Season 5/5 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/5 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

▸ Pitcher Walks — 11 play(s) (B 11)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grant Holmes Over 1.5 (-126) diff 50.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2626394180920393 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 33 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .172 | OPS .480
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 17.0%, L7 19.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 30.3%/33 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 9.9%, L7 8.9%, season 8.9%, BVP 12.1%/33 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Troy Melton Over 1.5 (-121) diff 47.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2113960246317292 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.7 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .868
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 18.1%, L7 23.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 8.9%, L7 10.1%, season 8.9%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-147) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.061676609101463 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.8 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 88 PA | K% 33.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .742
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 26.4%, L7 19.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 33.0%/88 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 9.1%, L7 12.1%, season 9.1%, BVP 9.1%/88 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Joey Cantillo Over 1.5 (-207) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 63.2% / Under 36.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-207	+155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.049017523597414 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.47 over 4.6 IP (BB% 11.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.2% / under 36.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.2%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joey Cantillo: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 21.8%, L7 24.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 9.4%, L7 8.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/8 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/23 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-207) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Hunter Dobbins Over 1.5 (-141) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0419611470808605 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.9 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 8.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hunter Dobbins: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .210 | OPS .421
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 19.7%, L7 25.5%, season 24.4%, top-6 22.1%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 11.3%, L7 6.7%, season 9.7%, BVP 0.0%/19 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.57 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/7 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 (-174) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.9797710515365203 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.16 over 5.8 IP (BB% 3.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.6% / under 59.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 53 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .235 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.8%, L7 22.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 20.8%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 10.6%, L7 11.5%, season 11.0%, BVP 3.8%/53 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grayson Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-162) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-162	+122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.004073066309375 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.18x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.0%, L7 23.4%, season 24.3% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.5%, split 12.4%, L7 11.3%, season 10.2% (adj 1.18x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Randy Dobnak Over 1.5 (-121) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9706432782705288 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 5.8 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 8.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Randy Dobnak: 25 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .613
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 19.4%, L7 17.9%, season 21.5%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 7.5%, L7 6.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.0%/25 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/5 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Joe Ryan Under 1.5 (-215) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+160	-215	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.0439282638149963 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.3 IP (BB% 5.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 36.0% / under 64.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 132 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .240 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 24.2%, L7 20.5%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 18.2%/132 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 9.3%, L7 7.4%, season 8.2%, BVP 3.8%/132 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-215) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brady Singer Over 1.5 (-123) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8911545263138632 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.2 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brady Singer: 35 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .194 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.8%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 14.1%, L7 5.8%, season 8.9%, BVP 11.4%/35 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 (-161) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8863898944830013 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 86 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .260 | OPS .810
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.9%, L7 26.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 17.4%/86 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.6%, L7 5.7%, season 8.1%, BVP 12.8%/86 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 9 play(s) (B 9)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Weathers Over 1.5 (-166) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	-
DK	1.5	-166	+124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.17 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.3% / under 41.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Weathers: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.278
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.4%, L7 20.1%, season 20.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-166) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 (-150) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-150	+113	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.50 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 24 PA | K% 41.7% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .048 | OPS .214
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.7%, L7 17.2%, season 20.8%, BVP 41.7%/24 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/23 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-138) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.51 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 88 PA | K% 33.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .742
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 26.4%, L7 19.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 33.0%/88 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gabriel Hughes Under 3.5 (-153) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 42.9% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.45 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.78)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.3%, L7 19.8%, season 19.1% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/5 (100%) | L20 5/5 (100%) | Season 5/5 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/5 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 (-159) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-159	+119	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.29 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 53 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .235 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.8%, L7 22.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 20.8%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Blade Tidwell Under 2.5 (-133) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.12 over 3.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.6 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 1.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 22.8%, L7 29.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/8 (100%) | L20 8/8 (100%) | Season 8/8 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/8 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Over 1.5 (-123) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.94)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joey Cantillo: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 21.8%, L7 24.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Under 2.5 (-171) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+129	-171	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.11 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 1.74)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.9% / under 59.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .868
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 18.1%, L7 23.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 10/11 (91%) | Season 10/11 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Henderson Over 1.5 (-163) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-163	+123	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.31 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.0% / under 42.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 6 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.8%, L7 22.0%, season 24.1% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.44 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/9 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Hits — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-262) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+193	-262	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.69 (AVG 0.204)
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.216 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 7/31 (23%) | L5 4/15 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/97 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/50 under 1.5 (94%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Hits: 38/47 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Hits: 85/97 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.69

⚠ Recent form: L10 23% + L5 27% (both cold) — risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-262); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-229) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+190	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+170	-229	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.90 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.147 (23 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.350 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 7/39 (18%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/108 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 43/54 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter Hits: 85/108 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.90

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Recent form: L10 18% + L5 26% (both cold) — risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-229) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 78 play(s) (B 78)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-500) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.10
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/107 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter Walks: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 97/107 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 79.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 28 PA | 7/27 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 3.6% | OPS .767
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/105 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 90/105 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-700) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-500) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-370) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -370 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+254	-370	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Heavy juice (-370); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-390) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -390 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+266	-390	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/107 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 90/107 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-390) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-346) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -346

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+239	-346	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-346) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-525) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-525) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-415) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -415 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -415

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -415 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+281	-415	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/103 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 87/103 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-415); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-470) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -470 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -470

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -470 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+315	-470	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/105 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 86/105 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Heavy juice (-470); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-342) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -342

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+236	-342	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/103 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 78/103 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-342); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-468) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -468

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+313	-468	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 81/104 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 81/104 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-468) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-610) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -610 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -610

Selected market: Over 19.0% / Under 81.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -610 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+396	-610	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/108 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 87/108 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-610); break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-320) diff 58.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+222	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/108 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 88/108 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-320) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-396) diff 56.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+270	-396	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 3.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 80/111 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-396); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-354) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+244	-354	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/104 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 77/104 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-354) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-337) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/110 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 85/110 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-337) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-420) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -420 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -420

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -420 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+285	-420	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/112 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 88/112 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-420); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-280) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+196	-280	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .697
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/108 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 76/108 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-280) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-437) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -437 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -437

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -437 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+295	-437	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-437) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-469) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -469

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+314	-469	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-469) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-750) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 20.5% / Under 79.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-750) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-800) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-800) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~89%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-410) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -410 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -410

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -410 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+278	-410	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .974
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/98 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 81/98 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-410); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-401) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -401 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -401

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -401 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+273	-401	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/105 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 84/105 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-401); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-303) diff 52.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+212	-303	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .889
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/105 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-303) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-408) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -408

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+277	-408	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/113 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/113 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-408) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-345) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -345 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -345

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -345 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -345; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+238	-345	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/113 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/113 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-345) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-385) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+263	-385	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/113 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/113 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-385) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-550) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 18 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.244
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/104 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 84/104 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Heavy juice (-550); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-360) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -360

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+248	-360	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/98 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 76/98 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-360) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-279) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+196	-279	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/108 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 81/108 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-279); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-418) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -418 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -418

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -418 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+284	-418	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-418) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-311) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -311

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+216	-311	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-311) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-420) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -420

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+285	-420	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-420) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nelson Velazquez Under 0.5 (-444) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -444

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+299	-444	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-444) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-316) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+220	-316	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/112 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 85/112 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-316); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-328) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+228	-328	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 80/111 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-328) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-245) diff 46.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+173	-245	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-335	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 83/110 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-245); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-452) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -452

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+304	-452	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 35 PA | 8/34 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .581
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/94 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 59/94 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-452) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-168) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+121	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-239) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -239 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -239 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+169	-239	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-239); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-202) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+145	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/97 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 36/47 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 72/97 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-202); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-233) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+165	-233	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .804
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/109 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-233) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-223) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+159	-223	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-223) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-289) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+202	-289	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-289) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-339) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -339

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+234	-339	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-339) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-428) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -428 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -428

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -428 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+289	-428	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-428) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-540) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -540 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -540

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -540 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+355	-540	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-540) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-385) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+263	-385	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/108 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 79/108 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-385) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-413) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -413

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+281	-413	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 71/105 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-413) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-261) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -261 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -261 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+184	-261	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-261); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-268) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.350 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/108 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 78/108 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-268) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-305) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+213	-305	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-305); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-214) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+157	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+153	-214	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-214); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-190) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+136	-190	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-190); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-344) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -344 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -344

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -344 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+237	-344	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-344); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-223) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+159	-223	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-345	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-223); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-156) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+113	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-368) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+252	-368	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-368) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-133) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -133

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-104	-129	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-104	-133	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-770) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -540 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -770

Selected market: Over 16.2% / Under 83.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -540 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+375	-625	-
DK	0.5	+483	-770	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+320	-540	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-770) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~89%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-391) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+267	-391	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-391); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-354) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+244	-354	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-354); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-125) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-125	-111	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.66
Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/107 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/53 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 58/107 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.66

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-335) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+232	-335	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 71/105 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-335) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-274) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+193	-274	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 71/105 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-274) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-269) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -269

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+189	-269	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/104 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 73/104 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Heavy juice (-269); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-395) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -395

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+270	-395	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/99 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 73/99 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-395); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-340) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -340 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+235	-340	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/112 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 84/112 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-340) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-207) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -207

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+148	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-207) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-293) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+205	-293	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-293) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-215) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+153	-215	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-215) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-280) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-280) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-234) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+166	-234	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/92 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 66/92 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-234); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-243) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+172	-243	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/95 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 25/44 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 60/95 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-243) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-240) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 72/105 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-240) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-268) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/96 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/48 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 70/96 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-268); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-233) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+166	-233	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Heavy juice (-233); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-139) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.509 (152 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .697
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/108 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-164) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	1.5	-162	+121	-
DK	1.5	-164	+123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 71/109 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.38

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, raw gap 1.0, heavy juice -164 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Under 2.5 (-155) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	Recommended
DK	2.5	+116	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.18 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.190 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/97 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/50 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 35/47 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 73/97 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.47

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-140) edge 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS Over 3.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetUS Over 3.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-130	+100	-
BetUS	3.5	-120	-110	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
FanDuel	3.5	-140	+108	Selected
BetOnline	4	+105	-125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	4	+100	-130	-
MyBookie	4	+101	-123	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Logan Henderson xFIP 4.20
Jared Jones xFIP 4.20
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Logan Henderson (RHP)
Away SP: Jared Jones (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-146) edge 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians (F5) | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 4 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	3.5	-146	+112	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	4	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	4	-110	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	4	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	4	-120	-110	-
Caesars	4	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Progressive Field (NEUTRAL)
Joey Cantillo xFIP 4.20
Sean Manaea xFIP 4.20
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 100 (team 94)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 121 (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP)
Away SP: Sean Manaea (LHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Chicago Cubs +1.5 1.5 (+100) edge 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Chicago Cubs 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 +100

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: FanDuel Chicago Cubs 1.5 +106 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Model run margin: -0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+38.84/$100
✓ Cover prob 69.4% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 21.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 0 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds +100 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Javier Assad (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Tarik Skubal (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 105)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 71%, bullpen 29%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ High RL edge 22% (≥20%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (1081 signal(s))

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 229 play(s) (A 2 | B 55 | C 172)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-153) diff 88.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-152	+115	-
DK	1.5	-153	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 88.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.394, xSLG 0.515 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 60/112 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.3, heavy juice -153 -- A risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at B

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-111) diff 76.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 76.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
Base projection 2.45 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.492 (61 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/111 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 36/52 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 68/111 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+122) diff 69.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.63
Base projection 2.63 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.429 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/57 over 1.5 (68%), avg 3.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 61/112 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eddy Alvarez Over 1.5 (+125) diff 69.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.63
Base projection 2.63 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.429 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/57 over 1.5 (68%), avg 3.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 61/112 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (1 books) — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-159) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	Recommended
DK	1.5	-159	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.384, xSLG 0.532 (80 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 54/106 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-133) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-153) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
DK	1.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.371, xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/92 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/47 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 55/92 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-135) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-135	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.279 (75 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-112) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.432 (42 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-122) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-122	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.456 (119 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 62/112 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-139) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.387 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-127) diff 51.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.448 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/93 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.53 | Day Batter HRR: 46/93 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-150) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.220, xSLG 0.256 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/46 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-145) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.448 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.17 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 52/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-129) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.390 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.300
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 52/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-143) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.311 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 56/109 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-149) diff 47.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-149	+112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.199, xSLG 0.238 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 61/107 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 61/107 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-112) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/95 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 48/95 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-158) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.245, xSLG 0.283 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .974
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/98 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.69 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 50/98 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-137) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.373 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/111 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 61/111 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-108) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.517 (12 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/100 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 51/100 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-140) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-140	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.313 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-125) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.371 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 2.5 (-164) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	2.5	+120	-159	Recommended
DK	2.5	+123	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-135) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.172, xSLG 0.220 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 52/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-118) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.394 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/92 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 47/92 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (-140) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-140	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.293 (56 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 58/108 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Under 2.5 (-166) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.68 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (-118) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-161) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	-
DK	1.5	-161	+121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.147, xSLG 0.111 (23 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.350 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/108 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 59/108 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Under 2.5 (-116) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	2.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.77 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.360 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/109 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/56 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 under 2.5 (64%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 66/109 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (-116) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-114) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.379 (64 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/83 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/42 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 40/83 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-128) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.293 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-144) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.467 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 35 PA | 8/34 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .581
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/94 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/48 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 53/94 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-121) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/56 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 57/110 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-142) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.339 (38 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/108 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 46/108 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-123) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.341 (13 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/104 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 45/104 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-143) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (-125) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-125) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.171, xSLG 0.196 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/93 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/39 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 41/93 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-116) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/104 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 45/104 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (-113) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (-147) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-147	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-114) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-132) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-139) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (-128) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.164 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/105 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 47/105 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (-136) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-151) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-151	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (-114) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (-134) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-115) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-116) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (-129) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (-120) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+114) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 2.5 +114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+114	-151	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.54 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.63
Base projection 2.63 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.429 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/112 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 2.5 (61%), avg 3.04 | Away Batter HRR: 19/55 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 54/112 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nicky Lopez Over 1.5 (+122) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 71/109 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.38

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+100) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-153) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
DK	1.5	-153	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.387 (150 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 16 PA | 5/15 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 57/109 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+104) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.317 (44 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-115) diff 58.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.410 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/112 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 33/52 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.75 | Day Batter HRR: 64/112 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-103) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.395, xSLG 0.596 (36 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter HRR: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-153) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
DK	1.5	-153	+115	Selected
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.399, xSLG 0.535 (148 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/110 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 34/54 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 60/110 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (+110) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.54
Base projection 2.54 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.485 (59 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/114 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.82 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 62/114 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-147) diff 50.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-147	+111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.420 (144 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 60/112 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.29

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-102) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.267 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 57/110 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-110) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.472 (112 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-103) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.229 (44 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/82 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/34 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 44/82 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Under 2.5 (-159) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	2.5	+120	-159	-
DK	2.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.42 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.300 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/105 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/57 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 33/48 under 2.5 (69%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 75/105 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-168) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-168	+126	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	2.5	+125	-170	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.291 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/105 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/49 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 58/105 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+109) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+109	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 56/96 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 30/48 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 56/96 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-110) diff 39.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.302 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/106 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/55 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 63/106 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+103) diff 39.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.488 (59 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/113 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 64/113 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+101) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.314 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+104) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.513 (56 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/105 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 55/105 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-119) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.412 (153 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .829
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/109 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 48/109 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-136) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.429, xSLG 0.615 (106 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/103 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 47/103 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-119) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/78 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/39 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter HRR: 26/39 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 46/78 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+121) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.397, xSLG 0.709 (11 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-111) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.438 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-109) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.373 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/103 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 36/58 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 57/103 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+108) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.371, xSLG 0.545 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 52/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+113) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.371, xSLG 0.545 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 52/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+120) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.577 (35 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/102 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 49/102 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-123) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.395, xSLG 0.517 (150 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-117) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.123, xSLG 0.089 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/108 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 57/108 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+105) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.395 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/105 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 55/105 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+131) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-170	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.46
Base projection 2.46 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.219, xSLG 0.292 (41 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/110 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter HRR: 64/110 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+109) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.363 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/112 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 53/112 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+112) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.514, xSLG 0.680 (67 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 62/108 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-150) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.398 (19 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/82 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 39/82 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Agustín Ramírez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.398 (19 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [INJ] Agustín Ramírez -- Reassigned to Minors
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/82 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 39/82 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: [INJ] Agustín Ramírez -- Reassigned to Minors

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-104) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.366 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/112 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 56/112 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-124) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.378 (66 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (-118) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+120) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.343, xSLG 0.418 (77 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/114 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 65/114 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+109) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.335, xSLG 0.503 (51 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/104 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 53/104 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-135) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.505 (47 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .111
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/88 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 40/88 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+105) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-102) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-102	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/104 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 56/104 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+100) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/96 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/48 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 53/96 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-119) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.325 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | 8/45 | HR 1 | K% 13.7% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .586
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 51 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-130) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.207, xSLG 0.286 (43 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 56/108 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 56/108 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Under 2.5 (+106) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	2.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	2.5	-132	-102	-
DK	2.5	-140	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.91 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 23.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.461 (76 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/112 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/59 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 32/53 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 68/112 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-140) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-140	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.392, xSLG 0.613 (25 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/107 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 52/107 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+105) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.394 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 47/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+115) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.389 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 17 PA | 7/16 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 5.9% | OPS 1.283
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-120) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 60/113 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 60/113 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+122) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.283 (35 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 35/54 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.54 | Day Batter HRR: 62/108 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Under 2.5 (-156) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.312 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/98 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/47 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 34/51 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 66/98 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Under 2.5 (+101) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	2.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	2.5	-127	-106	-
DK	2.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.97 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.514, xSLG 0.680 (67 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 36/52 under 2.5 (69%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 65/108 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.532 (69 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/102 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 59/102 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.97

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-110) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.532 (69 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/102 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 59/102 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.97

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+105) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.466 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 59/113 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Under 2.5 (-153) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 2.33 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+114	-152	-
DK	2.5	+115	-153	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.165, xSLG 0.171 (49 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 2.33 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.49 | Away Batter HRR: 40/55 under 2.5 (73%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 72/110 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colton Cowser Over 1.5 (+127) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+108) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	Recommended
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.480 (16 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (-102) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.395 (55 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+113) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.297 (30 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/81 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/41 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 39/81 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Under 2.5 (-122) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	2.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	-107	-125	-
DK	2.5	-108	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.10 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.244 (48 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/53 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 35/54 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 68/107 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+129) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.388 (32 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-128) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.168, xSLG 0.211 (49 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/87 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 54/87 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-105) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.484 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Smith Under 1.5 (-135) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.398 (16 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/112 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/57 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 66/112 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-177) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.398 (16 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/112 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/57 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 66/112 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-108) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.163, xSLG 0.196 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .889
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/105 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 49/105 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-101) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Under 2.5 (-147) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+117	-157	-
DK	2.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.22 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.387 (45 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/101 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/50 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 63/101 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (-103) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (+134) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.223 (45 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+113) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+103) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-140) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.186, xSLG 0.199 (45 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/108 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 30/53 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter HRR: 68/108 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-118) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.327 (30 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 2.5 (+123) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 2.5 +123; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	2.5	+118	-159	-
DK	2.5	+123	-163	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.74 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.423, xSLG 0.599 (102 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/89 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.62 | Away Batter HRR: 17/42 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 39/89 over 2.5 (44%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-126) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-130) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-121) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eliezer Alfonzo Over 1.5 (+122) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+125) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-120) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Over 1.5 (+115) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.355 (26 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/107 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter HRR: 37/107 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-162) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+121	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.357 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 10 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/101 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 under 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter HRR: 58/101 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Yastrzemski Over 1.5 (+114) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+115	Recommended
Fanatics	0.5	-155	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+106) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.341 (10 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/89 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 44/89 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+113) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.279 (18 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+102) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.413 (142 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 45/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+116) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.264 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-104) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.350 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+100) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.411 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 48/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 48/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (+110) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+122) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.200, xSLG 0.216 (68 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Under 2.5 (-133) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+107	-141	-
DK	2.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.33 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.586 (41 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/113 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/56 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 38/57 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 72/113 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-115) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.334 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/104 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 47/104 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis d'Arnaud Over 1.5 (+117) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+108) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+115) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+127) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (+132) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+134) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-139) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.390, xSLG 0.473 (13 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/100 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 64/100 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+105) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.168, xSLG 0.204 (11 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/105 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 44/105 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+106) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brady House Over 1.5 (+123) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+125) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alan Roden Over 1.5 (-106) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.302 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-101) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+103) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joe Mack Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Owen Caissie Over 1.5 (+119) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+125	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esteury Ruiz Over 1.5 (+133) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 1.5 (-177) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-123) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.233 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 29/50 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 52/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-178) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+116) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-101) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.315 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 28 PA | 7/27 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 3.6% | OPS .767
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/105 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 41/105 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Under 1.5 (-157) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brenton Doyle Over 1.5 (+122) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-142) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.527 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 18 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.244
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 70/104 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-114) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.141, xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/104 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 61/104 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-127) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-127	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Evan Carter Over 1.5 (+117) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+113) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daniel Susac Over 1.5 (+128) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-131) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-131	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (-110) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+111) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (-101) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.212, xSLG 0.209 (33 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/107 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 46/107 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Kreidler Over 1.5 (+100) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Under 1.5 (-141) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.284 (45 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/111 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 52/111 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Arias Under 1.5 (-157) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+100) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan McMahon Under 1.5 (-160) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 (-105) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	2.5	-109	-122	-
DK	2.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	2.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.55 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.406, xSLG 0.555 (133 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/49 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 2.5 (54%), avg 2.65 | Day Batter HRR: 49/103 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 (+110) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (-111) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+111) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (-120) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	Recommended
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-118) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Valenzuela Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jesus Sanchez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (-110) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Under 1.5 (-140) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Connor Wong Under 1.5 (-175) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-102) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+109) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+109) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [IL] Brendan Donovan -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Brendan Donovan -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-135) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-143) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+100) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luisangel Acuna Over 1.5 (+132) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Under 1.5 (-147) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James McCann Over 1.5 (+111) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+127) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+104) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-122) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (-103) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (-123) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (-106) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+115) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Under 1.5 (-158) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Jarvis Under 1.5 (-146) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Lombard Jr. Over 1.5 (+130) Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 8 | C 16)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zack Littell Over 3.5 (+130) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	+120	-159	-
Fanatics	3.5	+130	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 36.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.8% / under 59.2%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zack Littell: K/9 5.8, proj 4.8K over 7.2 IP (season 7.5 IP/GS)
Savant: whiff% 17.1% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.373 | top pitch: Slider (20% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tom Hanahan — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, L7 19.7%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.4%/6 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (6 hitters)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 (-125) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 7.33 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	7.5	-116	-111	-
BetRivers	7.5	-113	-118	-
DK	7.5	-125	-102	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-113	-113	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.0K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 32.8% vs 17% min; cushion +2.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 11.3, proj 10.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Sweeper (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tom Hanahan — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 88 PA | K% 33.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .742
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 88 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 26.4%, L7 19.7%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.4%/6 hitters, BVP 33.0%/88 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 67%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.90 | Season Avg 7.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
K% trend: support +4.1 ppts (recent 33.3% vs season 29.2%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Troy Melton Over 5.5 (+102) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 26.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Troy Melton: K/9 9.2, proj 6.9K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 21.4% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 34.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .868
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 18.1%, L7 23.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.45
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
K% trend: support +7.3 ppts (recent 30.4% vs season 23.1%, proj adj +3.7%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Cade Povich Over 4.5 (-128) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -128

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-132	+102	-
DK	4.5	-128	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.0% / under 47.0%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cade Povich: K/9 7.1, proj 5.5K over 5.1 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dan Merzel — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Slider: 38.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Povich: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 26.9%, split 24.5%, L7 27.6%, season 25.2%, BVP 37.5%/8 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/4 (25%) | L10 1/4 (25%) | L20 1/4 (25%) | Season 1/4 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/4 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Joey Cantillo Over 5.5 (-139) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+100	-
BetRivers	5.5	-118	-113	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-139	+109	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-120	-106	-
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 6.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 17.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.96K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Joey Cantillo: K/9 11.3, proj 6.5K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.8% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 25.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joey Cantillo: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 21.8%, L7 24.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.41 vs season
K% trend: support +6.9 ppts (recent 32.1% vs season 25.2%, proj adj +3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 3.5 (-165) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-145	+105	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-161	+124	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-185	+140	-
DK	3.5	-165	+129	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-180	+140	-
Fanatics	3.5	-150	+115	-
BetRivers	4.5	+125	-167	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 16.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.57K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 5.8, proj 4.1K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.1% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Changeup (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 113 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .240 | OPS .734
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 113 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.0%, L7 19.5%, season 22.2%, BVP 19.5%/113 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 (-106) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+175	-250	-
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	6.5	-114	-114	-
BetRivers	6.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-120	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	6.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 10.3, proj 6.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 21.7% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 22.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 24 PA | K% 41.7% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .048 | OPS .214
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.7%, L7 17.2%, season 20.8%, BVP 41.7%/24 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 5.91
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Joe Ryan Over 5.5 (-127) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.7% / Under 47.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-127	-102	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	-127	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-127	-101	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-132	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.7% / under 47.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Joe Ryan: K/9 9.7, proj 5.6K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Sweeper: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 132 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .240 | OPS .673
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 132 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 24.2%, L7 20.5%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 18.2%/132 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.7% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hunter Dobbins Over 4.5 (+129) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -159 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +129

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.64 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -159 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	3.5	-161	+124	-
BetRivers	3.5	-159	+120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	+129	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.2% / under 58.8%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Hunter Dobbins: K/9 8.5, proj 5.1K over 6.0 IP (season 8.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Split-Finger (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alex Tosi — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Split-Finger: 20.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hunter Dobbins: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .210 | OPS .421
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 19.7%, L7 25.5%, season 24.4%, top-6 22.1%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.1% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.57 | Season Avg 4.57
Prop trend: K L10: 3/7 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 (+115) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	7.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	7.5	+104	-139	-
DK	7.5	+115	-146	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	7.5	+112	-142	-
Fanatics	7.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 8.5K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 13.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Tarik Skubal: K/9 11.3, proj 8.5K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 24.1% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Changeup (51% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 53 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .235 | OPS .656
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.8%, L7 22.3%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.8%/8 hitters, BVP 20.8%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.80 | Season Avg 7.25
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 34.2% vs season 31.0%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Javier Assad Under 3.5 (-133) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	3.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	3.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	3.5	+106	-141	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	+105	-133	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.1% / under 53.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Javier Assad: K/9 7.3, proj 3.1K over 5.7 IP (season 7.7 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 14.3% | put-away% 13.9% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (16% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS .890
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 18.6%, season 20.5%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
K% trend: support +5.7 ppts (recent 22.7% vs season 17.0%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brady Singer Over 4.5 (-136) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-125	-103	-
BetRivers	4.5	-127	-105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-136	+106	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-118	-108	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.56K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.3% / under 45.7%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Brady Singer: K/9 7.7, proj 5.1K over 5.5 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.341 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Lance Barksdale — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brady Singer: 35 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .194 | OPS .705
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.8%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.17 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — JT Ginn Over 4.5 (-151) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-149	+115	-
BetRivers	4.5	-152	+114	-
DK	4.5	-151	+118	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-140	+112	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.56K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
JT Ginn: K/9 8.2, proj 5.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books))
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Umpire: Lance Barksdale — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Gusto Under 3.5 (-108) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	3.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	3.5	-111	-116	-
BetRivers	3.5	-114	-117	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-118	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-111	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 10.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Ryan Gusto: K/9 8.0, proj 3.1K over 4.2 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tyler Jones — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Gusto: 29 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 13.8% | AVG .292 | OPS .997
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 21.7%, L7 19.7%, season 21.2%, top-6 19.8%, BVP 17.2%/29 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.8%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 84%; L7 team K% 19.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.8% (4/6); lineup K% 22.2% (6/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Emerson Hancock Over 4.5 (-165) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-165	+123	-
DK	4.5	-165	+129	Selected
theScore Bet	4.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+124	-161	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-158	-
Fanatics	5.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 2/7 OVER (7 books); DK LOWER delta -0.57
Emerson Hancock: K/9 8.1, proj 4.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .667 | OPS 2.111
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.2%, L7 17.8%, season 22.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 4.5 (-114) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-111	-116	-
BetRivers	4.5	-108	-122	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	Recommended
DK	4.5	-114	-112	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-108	-118	-
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Grant Holmes: K/9 7.3, proj 4.9K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tyler Jones — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 33 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .172 | OPS .480
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 17.0%, L7 19.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 30.3%/33 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/21 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 4.14
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Freddy Peralta Under 5.5 (-143) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	5.5	+134	-175	-
BetRivers	5.5	+114	-152	-
DK	5.5	+112	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Freddy Peralta: K/9 9.5, proj 5.1K over 4.9 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.0% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 86 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .260 | OPS .810
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 86 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.9%, L7 26.5%, season 22.8%, active roster 21.8%/8 hitters, BVP 17.4%/86 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 (-115) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/7 OVER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-114	-114	-
BetRivers	5.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-115	-111	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 4/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Ryan Weathers: K/9 9.9, proj 5.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.9% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Sweeper (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alex Tosi — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Weathers: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.278
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.4%, L7 20.1%, season 20.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.4% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (8 books) | consensus 57% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 (-105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	5.5	-111	-116	-
BetRivers	5.5	-110	-121	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-105	-122	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.2% / under 51.8%); own-line consensus 3/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Trey Yesavage: K/9 9.8, proj 5.7K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.2% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Split-Finger (39% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Trey Yesavage: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .143 | OPS .548
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.1%, L7 23.0%, season 21.6%, active roster 19.2%/7 hitters, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 28.6% vs season 24.0%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (8 books) | split consensus 43% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Davis Martin Over 4.5 (+111) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	4.5	+112	-148	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+110	-140	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Davis Martin: K/9 7.5, proj 4.6K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: John Tumpane — 9.0 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.03x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 35 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .161 | OPS .483
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 23.2%, L7 22.4%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 17.1%/35 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.2% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.55 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.2 ppts (recent 14.5% vs season 21.7%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Henderson Under 6.5 (-123) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -123

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	6.5	+102	-132	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	-
DK	6.5	-103	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+106	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Logan Henderson: K/9 10.3, proj 6.4K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 23.0% | xwOBA 0.255 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 6 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.8%, L7 22.0%, season 24.1% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/9 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Blade Tidwell Under 4.5 (-163) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 4.17 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 3.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	-
BetRivers	3.5	-175	+128	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+127	-163	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+134	-172	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.5% / under 58.5%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Blade Tidwell: K/9 8.1, proj 4.5K over 3.7 IP (default 5.8 IP; recent 1.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 30.9% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 22.8%, L7 29.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/8 (100%) | L20 8/8 (100%) | Season 8/8 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.25 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: K L10: 8/8 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gabriel Hughes Over 3.5 (+117) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	3.5	+112	-145	-
BetRivers	3.5	+117	-155	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	+117	-150	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	3.5	+120	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Gabriel Hughes: K/9 8.1, proj 3.5K over 5.2 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.2% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.238 | top pitch: Slider (19% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Slider: 23.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.3%, L7 19.8%, season 19.1% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 3/5 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Patrick Sandoval Over 5.5 (-119) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	-112	-115	-
BetRivers	5.5	-120	-112	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-119	-107	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-118	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Patrick Sandoval: K/9 9.1, proj 5.5K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: John Tumpane — 9.0 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.03x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Patrick Sandoval: 20 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .368 | OPS .768
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.5%, L7 26.4%, season 23.8%, BVP 20.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/4 (25%) | L10 1/4 (25%) | L20 1/4 (25%) | Season 1/4 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/4 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 26 play(s) (B 5 | C 21)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 1.5 (-264) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -264

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+194	-264	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 1.5 (-250) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.172 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Recent form: L10 13/39 (33%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/105 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 77/105 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Jo Adell Under 1.5 (-280) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -280

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-235	+175	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
DK	1.5	+205	-280	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.239)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.239 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 6/32 (19%) | L5 2/16 (12%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/111 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 84/111 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-193) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -193 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.294 (45 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/35 (26%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/101 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 38/51 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 74/101 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-225) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
DK	1.5	+167	-225	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.324)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 14/42 (33%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/105 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/49 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 64/105 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kody Clemens Under 1.5 (-240) diff 42.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+178	-240	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.88 (AVG 0.238)
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.215 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/98 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.88
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/47 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 40/51 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter Hits: 75/98 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.88

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Mickey Moniak Under 1.5 (-275) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -275

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -275 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-225	+165	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetOnline	1.5	+209	-286	-
DK	1.5	+202	-275	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 (-167) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.282 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 77/109 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ryan Jeffers Under 1.5 (-228) diff 39.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -228 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -228

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -228 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+169	-228	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-150) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-450	+300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.342 (76 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/37 (24%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/112 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter Hits: 80/112 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-216) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -216 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -216

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -216 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+161	-216	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.87 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-263) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -263

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.88 (AVG 0.233)
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.366 (19 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 8/41 (20%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/82 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.88
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/41 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 33/41 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 65/82 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-176) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-450	+300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.298)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.286 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/35 (37%) | L5 7/17 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 70/105 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bryce Harper Under 1.5 (-246) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+182	-246	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.90 (AVG 0.255)
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.363 (41 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 9/37 (24%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/56 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 45/57 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 90/113 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-243) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -243

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+179	-243	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.165 (49 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 8/21 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 82/110 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chase Meidroth Under 1.5 (-250) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -250; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	-
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+184	-250	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.273)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.247 (56 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 7/32 (22%) | L5 3/15 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/108 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 81/108 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-243) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -243

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+180	-243	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.289)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.245 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .974
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 8/46 (17%) | L5 4/22 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/98 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 39/49 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 70/98 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-130) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-500	+320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.16 (AVG 0.298)
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.514 (67 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 8/38 (21%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 74/108 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-252) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -252

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+185	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+186	-252	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.279)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.315 (57 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 35 PA | 8/34 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .581
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Recent form: L10 8/41 (20%) | L5 2/18 (11%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/94 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/48 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 67/94 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-265) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+195	-265	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.270)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.325 (144 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/112 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 47/57 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 85/112 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-251) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.289)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.199 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 16/44 (36%) | L5 11/23 (48%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/107 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/54 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 75/107 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-245) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -245

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+181	-245	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.272)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.423 (102 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/89 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/47 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 62/89 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-226) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -222 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -222 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Recommended
DK	1.5	+168	-226	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.294)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.406 (133 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 14/39 (36%) | L5 8/18 (44%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/103 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 68/103 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-245) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -245

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+170	-235	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+181	-245	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.384 (80 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 7/39 (18%) | L5 2/19 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/106 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 75/106 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 (-235) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Recommended
DK	1.5	+174	-235	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.309)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.399 (148 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 20/40 (50%) | L5 9/19 (47%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 30/54 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter Hits: 71/110 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-206) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -206

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Recommended
DK	1.5	+154	-206	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.28 (AVG 0.321)
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328 (82 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/109 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 33/53 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter Hits: 66/109 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 190 play(s) (B 4 | C 186)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+133) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +133

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +133; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+133	-179	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+133	-186	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 57/112 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 40.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+130) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 57/112 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 40.1% (1 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+106) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+104	-137	-
DK	0.5	+106	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.82
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/93 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 26/45 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Walks: 51/93 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.82

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (-111) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -111

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-111	-125	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/83 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/42 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 18/41 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 41/83 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.60

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+143) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+143	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.78
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/111 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 63/111 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.78

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-437) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -437 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -437

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -437 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+295	-437	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/104 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 82/104 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-365) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -365

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+251	-365	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/109 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 89/109 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-372) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -372

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+255	-372	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/109 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 89/109 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-407) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -407

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+277	-407	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-436) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -436

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+294	-436	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-690) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -690

Selected market: Over 17.5% / Under 82.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+380	-625	-
DK	0.5	+438	-690	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-820) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -820 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -820

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -820 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+509	-820	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+390	-1000	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-410) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -410 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -410

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -410 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+278	-410	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/104 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 82/104 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-403) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -403

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+274	-403	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 84/110 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Pages Under 0.5 (-940) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -940 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -940

Selected market: Over 14.2% / Under 85.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -940 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+568	-940	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+450	-1200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 78/112 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-287) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -287 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -287

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -287 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+201	-287	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 78/112 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-373) diff 44.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+256	-373	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/108 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 80/108 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-386) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+264	-386	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-365) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -365 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -365

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -365 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+251	-365	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-210) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+143	-193	-
DK	0.5	+150	-210	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-205) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+147	-200	-
DK	0.5	+146	-205	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-188) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+135	-188	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-175) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+126	-175	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-148) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+107	-148	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-449) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -449 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -449

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -449 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+302	-449	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-384) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -384 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -384

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -384 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+262	-384	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-353) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -353 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -353

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -353 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+243	-353	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-479) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -479

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+320	-479	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 73/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-359) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+247	-359	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/111 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 79/111 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-378) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -378

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+259	-378	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-384) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -384 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -384

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -384 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+263	-384	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-422) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+286	-422	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-450) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+302	-450	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-348) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+240	-348	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-358) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+247	-358	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-319) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+222	-319	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-382) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -382 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -382

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -382 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+261	-382	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-215) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+153	-215	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-232) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+165	-232	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/102 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-344) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -344

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+237	-344	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/102 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-396) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+270	-396	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/102 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-295) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+206	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 76/107 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/107 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-226) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+161	-226	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/111 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 32/54 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 73/111 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-345) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -345

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+239	-345	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 56/78 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/39 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 56/78 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-201) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+144	-201	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-317) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+220	-317	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-297) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+208	-297	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-338) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+234	-338	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-267) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -267 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -267

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -267 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+188	-267	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-478) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -478 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -478

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -478 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+319	-478	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-309) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -309

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	-
DK	0.5	+216	-309	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-430) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -430 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -430

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -430 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-460	-
DK	0.5	+291	-430	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/106 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 73/106 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-393) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -393 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -393

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -393 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+268	-393	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 (-420) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -420

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+285	-420	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-297) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+195	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+208	-297	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 70/105 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-530) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -530 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -530

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -530 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+349	-530	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-360) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -360 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -360

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -360 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -360; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+248	-360	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-346) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -346 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -346

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -346 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+239	-346	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-381) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -381

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+261	-381	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-529) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -529

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+349	-529	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-278) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+195	-278	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-298) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -298

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+208	-298	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-327) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-359) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+247	-359	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-371) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+254	-371	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 77/110 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-298) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -298

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+208	-298	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 74/105 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+153) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +153

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+153	-214	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.37x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/57 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/56 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 44/113 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-232) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+165	-232	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/107 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 76/107 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-292) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+205	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/107 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 75/107 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-332) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-446) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -446

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+300	-446	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-250) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+177	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.66x
Opp SP BB% 3.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 17 PA | 7/16 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 5.9% | OPS 1.283
BVP walk adjustment: 0.88x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/56 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 63/110 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.51

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-216) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+161	-225	-
DK	0.5	+154	-216	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/108 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 79/108 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-268) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+189	-268	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-469) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -469

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+314	-469	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-252) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -252

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -250; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+178	-252	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-292) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+204	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-338) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	-
DK	0.5	+234	-338	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-418) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -418 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -418

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -418 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+284	-418	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James McCann Under 0.5 (-536) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -536 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -536

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -536 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+353	-536	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-190) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+136	-190	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-286) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+200	-286	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-282) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -282

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+198	-282	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-573) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -573

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+350	-560	-
DK	0.5	+374	-573	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-214) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-205	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+153	-214	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-518) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -518

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+343	-518	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-690) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -690 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -690

Selected market: Over 17.5% / Under 82.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -690 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+438	-690	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-224) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+160	-224	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-509) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -509 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -509

Selected market: Over 21.5% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -509 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+338	-509	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-371) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+255	-371	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [IL] Brendan Donovan -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Brendan Donovan -- Injured 10-Day

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-377) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -377

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+258	-377	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-341) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+235	-341	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-281) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/110 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 76/110 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-234) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+167	-234	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 71/113 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-300) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-280) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-162) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+117	-162	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/103 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 26/51 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 63/103 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-229) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+163	-229	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-335	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 31/54 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 71/110 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-229) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+163	-229	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/94 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 70/94 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-218) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -218 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -218 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -218; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+156	-218	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 16 PA | 5/15 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/109 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/52 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 63/109 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-319) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+222	-319	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 10 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .833
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/101 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 65/101 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-462) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -462

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+310	-462	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-550) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (+116) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +116

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	-
DK	0.5	+116	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .829
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/52 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 50/109 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-166) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -166

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	-
DK	0.5	+120	-166	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-226) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+153	-209	-
DK	0.5	+161	-226	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-280) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+183	-260	-
DK	0.5	+197	-280	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-283) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+199	-283	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-301) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -301

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+210	-301	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-365) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -365

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+251	-365	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-462) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -462 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -462

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -462 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-594) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -594 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -594

Selected market: Over 19.4% / Under 80.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -594 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+386	-594	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-630) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -630

Selected market: Over 18.7% / Under 81.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+405	-630	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-280) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-252) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -252

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+178	-252	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/103 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/52 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 62/103 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-260) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+184	-260	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 72/112 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 31/53 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 72/112 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-194) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -194 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -194 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+153	-209	-
DK	0.5	+139	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-437) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -437

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+295	-437	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/112 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 83/112 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-316) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+220	-316	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/112 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 83/112 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-257) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+181	-257	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/107 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 27/52 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 66/107 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+120) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+124	-170	-
DK	0.5	+120	-166	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/113 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/56 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 54/113 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-194) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -194 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -194 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+139	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/111 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 77/111 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-257) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+181	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/100 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 72/100 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-226) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+157	-213	-
DK	0.5	+161	-226	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/96 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/48 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 58/96 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-220) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+148	-200	-
DK	0.5	+157	-220	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/101 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 63/101 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eliezer Alfonzo Under 0.5 (-481) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -481 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -481

Selected market: Over 22.3% / Under 77.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -481 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+321	-481	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-255) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -255 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+180	-255	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-390) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -390 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+266	-390	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-307) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -307

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+214	-307	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-525) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-329) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+228	-329	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-350) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-243) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+172	-243	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/108 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 79/108 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 (-119) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
DK	0.5	-119	-116	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/92 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/47 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 17/45 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 37/92 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (+125) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/114 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/57 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter Walks: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 62/114 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-368) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+253	-368	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 69/113 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-294) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 69/105 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-266) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+188	-266	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 29/53 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 62/110 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-175) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+126	-175	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 72/111 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-256) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+181	-256	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 72/105 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-190) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+137	-190	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/106 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 29/52 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 62/106 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-188) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+135	-188	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-227) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+161	-227	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-265) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -265 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+187	-265	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-359) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+247	-359	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-161) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+116	-161	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/112 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 71/112 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-250) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+177	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 72/107 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-316) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+220	-316	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 55/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/54 under 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 55/109 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Over 0.5 (+148) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+148	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 42/111 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 18/54 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 42/111 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-241) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -241

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+171	-241	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/100 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/48 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 63/100 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-193) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+139	-193	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/82 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 23/34 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 53/82 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-278) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+195	-278	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-261) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+184	-261	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-206) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+147	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+147	-206	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-167) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -167

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+129	-173	-
DK	0.5	+120	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-382) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -382 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -382

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -382 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+261	-382	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-245) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+174	-245	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/110 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Over 0.5 (+127) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +127

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+127	-177	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/59 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 20/53 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 44/112 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-355) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -355 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -355

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -355 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+245	-355	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/56 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 30/56 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 59/112 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-249) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+176	-249	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Harry Ford Over 0.5 (+232) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +232 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +232

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +232 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+232	-335	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/87 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/42 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 14/45 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 35/87 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (+281) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +281 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +281

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +281 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+281	-414	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/87 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/42 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 14/45 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 35/87 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.57

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 25.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-308) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -308

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+215	-308	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/109 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 30/54 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 69/109 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-285) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+200	-285	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 63/89 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 63/89 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 (+102) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +102

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+102	-140	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/107 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/55 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 21/52 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 41/107 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-250) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+177	-250	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.300
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/103 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 72/103 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-273) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+191	-265	-
DK	0.5	+192	-273	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 52/81 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/41 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 27/40 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 52/81 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-177) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+128	-177	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-210) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-205	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+150	-210	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-222) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+158	-222	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-237) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+167	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+168	-237	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-298) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -298

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+208	-298	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-218) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+155	-218	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/89 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/47 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 26/42 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 54/89 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-204) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -204 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -204 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+146	-204	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 68/107 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-284) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+199	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/104 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/51 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 62/104 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-226) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+161	-226	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 31/53 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 68/109 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-185) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/46 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-200) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+143	-200	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 65/105 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (+128) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +128

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+124	-170	-
DK	0.5	+128	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/106 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 48/106 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-232) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+165	-232	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/101 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 68/101 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+136) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+136	-189	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 46/110 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 21/55 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 46/110 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 (+148) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+148	-207	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .111
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/88 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/43 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 16/45 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 31/88 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-273) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+192	-273	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/114 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/57 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 62/114 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+168) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +168

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+168	-237	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | 8/45 | HR 1 | K% 13.7% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .586
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 51 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/110 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/55 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 20/55 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 41/110 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-151) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -151

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+109	-151	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 26/50 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 60/102 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-186) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+134	-186	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/108 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 57/108 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-151) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -151

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+107	-143	-
DK	0.5	+109	-151	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/49 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 28/54 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Walks: 53/103 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+148) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+148	-206	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/59 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 18/53 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 43/112 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Agustín Ramírez Under 0.5 (-310) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [INJ] Agustín Ramírez -- Reassigned to Minors
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/82 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/41 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 26/41 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 49/82 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: [INJ] Agustín Ramírez -- Reassigned to Minors

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-165) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/93 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/39 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 56/93 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 280 play(s) (B 10 | C 252 | D 18)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 339.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+111	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 339.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.429 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/57 over 0.5 (82%), avg 2.74 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 79/112 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 339% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-190) diff 284.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 284.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-150) diff 245.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-137	+106	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 245.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.709 (11 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 68/110 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.70

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 246% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (-185) diff 234.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 234.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 235% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-160) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-185) diff 208.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rhys Hoskins Over 0.5 (-140) diff 203.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 203.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-175) diff 203.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-159) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-159	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.680 (67 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/108 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 49/108 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+180) diff 339.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 339.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.429 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/57 over 0.5 (82%), avg 2.74 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 79/112 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.35

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 339% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 311.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 311.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 83/109 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/56 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 39/53 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 83/109 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.92

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 311% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-175) diff 289.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.95 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 289.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.317 (44 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 66/110 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 289% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-135) diff 284.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 284.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-125) diff 284.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 284.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 0.5 (+180) diff 277.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+134	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 277.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.485 (59 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/57 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 75/114 over 0.5 (66%), avg 2.05

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 278% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Pages Over 0.5 (-105) diff 266.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 266.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.420 (144 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/55 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 41/57 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 79/112 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 267% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-185) diff 261.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 261.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.545 (38 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/105 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 60/105 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.70

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 261% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-160) diff 261.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 261.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.545 (38 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/105 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 60/105 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.70

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 261% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-155) diff 234.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 234.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 235% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-160) diff 234.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 234.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 235% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (-190) diff 234.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 234.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 235% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 0.5 (-155) diff 234.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 234.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.292 (41 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/110 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/56 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter TB: 76/110 over 0.5 (69%), avg 2.05

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 234% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-175) diff 232.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 233% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eliezer Alfonzo Over 0.5 (-165) diff 232.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 233% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-155) diff 232.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 232% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (-125) diff 230.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (-130) diff 230.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 (-150) diff 230.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (-155) diff 227.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 227% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 0.5 (-185) diff 225.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.466 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/113 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 40/60 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 72/113 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.81

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 225% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-165) diff 223.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 223.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-140) diff 223.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-120) diff 223.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 (-160) diff 223.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (+105) diff 223.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+112	-145	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 39.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-115) diff 223.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 0.5 (+105) diff 223.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.2% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (+170) diff 223.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 35.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luisangel Acuna Over 0.5 (-140) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+111	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brenton Doyle Over 0.5 (-175) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 -175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	-175	+128	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrés Chaparro Over 0.5 (-145) diff 221.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	-102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 0.5 (-150) diff 221.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 (+180) diff 221.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-140) diff 219.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-155) diff 219.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-200) diff 219.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-190	+145	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 (-185) diff 219.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-185) diff 219.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-160) diff 219.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 (-130) diff 219.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 (-165) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-155) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+114	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-135) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daniel Susac Over 0.5 (-175) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-140) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (-105) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-107	-124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (-105) diff 214.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-107	-124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (-160) diff 214.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-190) diff 214.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+139	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-120) diff 214.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.577 (35 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/102 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 62/102 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.70

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Romo Over 0.5 (-135) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 (-190) diff 211.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+142	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.503 (51 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/49 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 67/104 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.57

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-115) diff 209.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.247 (69 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/111 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 70/111 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.28

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 (-200) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-125) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 (-155) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-105) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-102	-127	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-102	-132	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-182) diff 209.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.3% / Under 39.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.532 (69 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 71/102 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Endy Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 209.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.532 (69 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 71/102 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brendan Donovan Over 0.5 (-165) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [IL] Brendan Donovan -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Brendan Donovan -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-125) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-145) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
Fanatics	0.5	-145	+110	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 (-175) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+134	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-140) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 0.5 (-155) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hao-Yu Lee Over 0.5 (-140) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-115) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	-
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-110) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-118	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nelson Velazquez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 208.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 0.5 (-155) diff 208.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-150) diff 208.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 (-165) diff 207.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+132	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.395 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 70/105 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.68

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-185) diff 205.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-155) diff 205.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James McCann Over 0.5 (-155) diff 205.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-150	+112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jase Bowen Over 0.5 (-120) diff 205.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 (-185) diff 205.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-155) diff 205.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 (+180) diff 205.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-120) diff 203.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	-
Caesars	0.5	-115	-115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-150) diff 203.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+111	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-150) diff 203.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Arias Over 0.5 (-135) diff 203.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Hedges Over 0.5 (-115) diff 203.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-150) diff 203.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-125) diff 203.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-125	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-135) diff 202.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.680 (67 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/108 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 33/52 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 76/108 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 (-185) diff 202.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-179	+136	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.680 (67 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/108 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 33/52 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 76/108 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 (-185) diff 193.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+129	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 193.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.480 (16 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/107 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 70/107 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 193.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 193.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 193% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 0.5 (-185) diff 192.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 192.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.395 (55 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/50 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 65/108 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 192.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 192.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 193% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-185) diff 191.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 191.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 0.5 (-155) diff 189.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-150	+112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 189.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 0.5 (-200) diff 189.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+142	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 189.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-175) diff 189.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.484 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/113 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/56 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/113 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 189.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (-160) diff 187.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 187.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (30 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/81 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/41 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 24/40 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 48/81 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 187.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 187.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 0.5 (-185) diff 186.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 186.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/96 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/48 over 0.5 (75%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 62/96 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 186.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 186.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 0.5 (-150) diff 184.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.394 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 70/108 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 184.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 0.5 (-155) diff 184.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.388 (32 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/112 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 73/112 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 184.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (-175) diff 181.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.389 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 17 PA | 7/16 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 5.9% | OPS 1.283
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 37/54 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 73/110 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 181.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 0.5 (-160) diff 170.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.341 (10 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/89 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/45 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 27/44 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 53/89 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 171% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-190) diff 160.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.204 (11 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/105 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/48 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 63/105 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-145) diff 160.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.07
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.355 (26 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 25/52 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter TB: 54/107 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-150) diff 157.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 157.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.279 (18 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 66/110 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 157.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 157.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 157% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 (-190) diff 147.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-193	+142	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (35 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (-160) diff 146.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 146.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.216 (68 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/112 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/56 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 73/112 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 146.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 146.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Over 0.5 (-175) diff 141.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 141.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.411 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 62/99 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 141.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 141.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-160) diff 140.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.473 (13 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/100 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 57/100 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 140.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 140.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-155) diff 133.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 133.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.527 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 18 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.244
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/104 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 0.5 (43%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 53/104 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 133.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 133.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Smith Over 0.5 (-200) diff 127.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-189	+143	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.398 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 57/112 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-160) diff 123.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 123.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 31/50 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 65/105 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 123.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 123.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-165) diff 118.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 118.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.357 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 10 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/48 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 60/101 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 118.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 118.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-200) diff 114.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 114.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.209 (33 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/107 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/52 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 59/107 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 114.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 114.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+107) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.549 (146 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 59/112 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 54.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 54.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-109) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-107	-125	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.429 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.74 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.35

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+108) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.509 (152 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .697
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/108 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/108 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-108) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.515 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/112 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 46/112 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.74

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-134) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.555 (133 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-109) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.387 (150 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 16 PA | 5/15 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/109 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 45/109 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+102) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.390 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.300
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/103 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 43/103 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-102	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+135) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.596 (36 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter TB: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-127) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.190 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/97 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/50 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 34/47 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 71/97 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-104) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.532 (80 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/106 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 47/106 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-105) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.599 (102 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 37/89 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 37/89 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-212) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -212

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+148	-200	-
DK	1.5	+158	-212	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 69/104 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 69/104 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+122) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.492 (61 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/111 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 51/111 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+102) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/92 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/92 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+134) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/92 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/92 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+107) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (75 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 41/111 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-103) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.535 (148 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-105) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.256 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/108 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 49/108 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.07

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-115) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.586 (41 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/113 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 47/113 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+100) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (-190) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-190) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
Caesars	1.5	+155	-213	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.211 (49 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/87 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/42 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 34/45 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 65/87 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-122) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+240	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.300 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/105 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 29/48 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 66/105 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+130) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+129) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+105) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.448 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/103 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 45/103 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+144) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.410 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/112 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter TB: 54/112 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+152) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+152	-204	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.267 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/110 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 45/110 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+138) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.488 (59 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/113 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 53/113 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-182) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	Recommended
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.233 (34 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 71/105 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-121) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.244 (48 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/107 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 46/107 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+107) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.420 (144 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/112 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 47/112 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-105) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.220 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 42/105 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.95

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+125) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.517 (12 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/100 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 44/100 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+130) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.229 (44 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/82 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 12/34 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 35/82 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+104) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.238 (33 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 52/107 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 52/107 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+111) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.448 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/93 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 35/93 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+129) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.456 (119 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/112 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 47/112 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-171) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.164 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/105 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 68/105 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+107) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.615 (106 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/103 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/52 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 39/103 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-102) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.311 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 42/109 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+115) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.387 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 44/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.82

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-166) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.334 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/104 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 74/104 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-165) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.196 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 65/93 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/39 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 65/93 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-112) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.312 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/98 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 40/98 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+104) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.505 (47 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .111
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 32/88 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/43 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 32/88 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+125) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.513 (56 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/105 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 47/105 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+138) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.472 (112 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/107 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 38/107 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-189) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.350 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/106 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 30/54 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 67/106 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+107) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.613 (25 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/107 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/53 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 46/107 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+115) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.371 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/54 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 41/109 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-181) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.341 (13 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/104 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 68/104 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+109) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.291 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-168) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	Recommended
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.339 (38 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+103) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.283 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .974
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/98 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 45/98 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+113) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+121) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+134) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+155) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-165) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/104 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/56 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 60/104 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 (+108) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	+101	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.360 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 62/109 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+130) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/96 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 42/96 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+126) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+119) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-200) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+112) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+120) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 30/78 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/39 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 30/78 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-113) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.467 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 35 PA | 8/34 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .581
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/94 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 44/94 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+139) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+151) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+151	-202	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+136) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (31 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+124) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-170	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.438 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 51/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-169) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	Recommended
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.196 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .889
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/49 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 65/105 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-178) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 28 PA | 7/27 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 3.6% | OPS .767
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/105 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/49 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 68/105 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (+136) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.432 (42 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/107 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 39/107 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.31

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-103) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+118) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+118) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 1.5 (+150) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+150	-202	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+137) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/95 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 44/95 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-176) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	Recommended
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (56 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 75/112 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-182) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	Recommended
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.327 (30 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 67/107 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+145) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+158) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gary Sanchez Over 1.5 (+190) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+138) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (+131) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-104) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+136) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (+100) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (+125) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Derek Hill Over 1.5 (+149) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+135) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+128) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.379 (64 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 31/83 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/42 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 31/83 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-190) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/112 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 74/112 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+110) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/111 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 43/111 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-107) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/111 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/57 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 37/111 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.50

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-162) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.517 (150 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/106 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 75/106 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Under 1.5 (-163) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.293 (56 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/108 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/54 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 61/108 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+122) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (66 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-187) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 74/113 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-123) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.111 (23 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.350 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/108 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 66/108 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-111) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.387 (45 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/101 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 39/101 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+144) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-182	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/106 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 46/106 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+120) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+116) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+139) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+116) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.325 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | 8/45 | HR 1 | K% 13.7% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .586
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 51 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/110 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 40/110 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.286 (43 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 42/108 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alika Williams Over 1.5 (+146) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+127) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-187) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.484 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/113 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/56 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 72/113 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+137) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/110 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 42/110 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (+139) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.412 (153 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .829
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/109 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 18/57 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 36/109 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-160) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+138) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+124) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+134) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.532 (69 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/102 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 38/102 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+126) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.089 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/108 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 44/108 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+128) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Under 1.5 (-185) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (+140) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.394 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/92 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 17/41 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 39/92 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.41

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+124) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/108 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/54 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 39/108 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+145	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (+140) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+138) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+123) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+135) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-128) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (19 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/82 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/41 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 26/41 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 51/82 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+117) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/104 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 41/104 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-185) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.314 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 67/107 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-136) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.171 (49 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 37/55 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 70/110 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Eric Wagaman Over 0.5 (+100) diff 197.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — John Rave Over 0.5 (-125) diff 191.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-150) diff 191.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Luis Torrens Over 0.5 (-135) diff 189.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-125) diff 189.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.484 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/113 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/56 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/113 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (-155) diff 185.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 185.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.418 (77 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 77/114 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 185.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 185% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-140) diff 184.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.264 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/108 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 64/108 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 185% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (-135) diff 179.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.223 (45 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/111 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 61/111 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-160) diff 164.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.413 (142 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 58/111 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 164% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-140) diff 153.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 153.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.536 (23 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/94 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 49/94 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 153.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 154% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (+100) diff 153.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	-
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 153.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (81 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 62/109 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 153.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 154% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 (-115) diff 139.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.386 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 55/108 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-125) diff 138.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 138.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 53/101 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 138.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-125) diff 127.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.398 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 57/112 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 (-200) diff 126.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -196 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -196 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-196	+148	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+152	-209	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 126.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.284 (45 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/55 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 76/111 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 126.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Harry Ford Over 0.5 (-120) diff 112.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-109	-119	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 112.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.211 (49 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 112.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-160) diff 89.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.95 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.199 (45 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 53/108 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 89.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-111	-116	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.85
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.322 (16 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 54/105 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (B 1 | C 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-144) edge 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (F5) | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5	-118	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5	-110	-110	-
BetUS	5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	5	-115	-115	-
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-144	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Camden Yards (PITCHER)
Cade Povich xFIP 4.20
Grayson Rodriguez xFIP 4.20
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 104 (team 99)
Los Angeles Angels confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 107 (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cade Povich (LHP)
Away SP: Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (+104) edge 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5) | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 6 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-125	+105	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	5.5	-130	+100	-
FanDuel	5.5	-135	+104	Selected
BetMGM	6	-105	-125	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

F5 model: 5.2 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Gabriel Hughes xFIP 4.20
Freddy Peralta xFIP 4.20
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 104)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP)
Away SP: Freddy Peralta (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 47.1% (5 books)

▸ Pitcher Outs — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Ryan Weathers Under 17.5 (+104) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+110	-
BetOnline	17.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-150	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-139	+104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-148	+110	-
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 15.005 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.3% / under 45.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Weathers: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.278
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.4%, L7 20.1%, season 20.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 10.9%, L7 9.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.30 | Season Avg 16.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.13 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.49 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.49 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brady Singer Under 17.5 (-106) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 17.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 17.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 17.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	Recommended
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-129	-104	-
DK	17.5	-125	-106	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-112	-
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 15.791 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brady Singer: 35 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .194 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.8%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 14.1%, L7 5.8%, season 8.9%, BVP 11.4%/35 PA (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 15.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — MacKenzie Gore Under 17.5 (+142) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 18 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +142

Selected market: Over 61.2% / Under 38.8%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 18 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 17.5 +148; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-200	+140	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	-
Caesars	17.5	-185	+135	-
DK	17.5	-187	+142	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-200	+148	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	17.5	-210	+145	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	-
BetOnline	18	-120	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 15.882 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 61.2% / under 38.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 24 PA | K% 41.7% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .048 | OPS .214
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.7%, L7 17.2%, season 20.8%, BVP 41.7%/24 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 6.3%, L7 8.8%, season 7.0%, BVP 12.5%/24 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 16.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Joe Ryan Under 17.5 (+128) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 18 -140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +128

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 18 -140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 17.5 +131; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	17.5	-176	+131	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-171	+128	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	-
Fanatics	17.5	-185	+130	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-
BetOnline	18	+100	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.436 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 132 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .240 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 24.2%, L7 20.5%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 18.2%/132 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 9.3%, L7 7.4%, season 8.2%, BVP 3.8%/132 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Under 18.5 (-153) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 18.43 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 18 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	18	-140	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	18.5	+115	-160	-
Caesars	18.5	+117	-157	-
DK	18.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	18.5	+122	-162	-
Fanatics	18.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.099 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 2.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 18.43 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 88 PA | K% 33.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .742
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 26.4%, L7 19.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 33.0%/88 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 9.1%, L7 12.1%, season 9.1%, BVP 9.1%/88 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 17.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 18.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesús Luzardo Under 18.5 (-155) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.099 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 2.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 88 PA | K% 33.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .742
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 26.4%, L7 19.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 33.0%/88 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 9.1%, L7 12.1%, season 9.1%, BVP 9.1%/88 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 17.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 18.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Over 17.5 (-115) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-121	-110	-
DK	17.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.729000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .868
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 18.1%, L7 23.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 8.9%, L7 10.1%, season 8.9%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 18.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 (-169) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 18 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	17.5	-170	+126	-
DK	17.5	-169	+128	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-182	+132	-
Fanatics	17.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-
BetOnline	18	-110	-130	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.708000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 113 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .240 | OPS .734
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.0%, L7 19.5%, season 22.2%, BVP 19.5%/113 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.4%, L7 8.9%, season 9.2%, BVP 8.0%/113 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 17.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Under 18.5 (-191) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 18.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 18.42 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 5 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 18.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 18 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	18	-130	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	18.5	+150	-210	-
Caesars	18.5	+150	-205	-
DK	18.5	+142	-191	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+125	-180	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 18.362000000000002 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.6% / under 61.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 18.42 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 53 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .235 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.8%, L7 22.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 20.8%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 10.6%, L7 11.5%, season 11.0%, BVP 3.8%/53 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 18.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sean Manaea Over 5.5 (+102) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+102	-136	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 7.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 41.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.01 over 7.2 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 7.2 IP (HIGH; season 10.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 8.9 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 31 PA | K% 16.1% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .269 | OPS 1.041
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 16.9%, L7 19.7%, season 22.2%, top-6 17.5%, BVP 16.1%/31 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/23 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 (-120) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
DK	5.5	-120	-111	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.26 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.67, BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 86 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .260 | OPS .810
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.9%, L7 26.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 17.4%/86 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-129) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-103	-129	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 113 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .240 | OPS .734
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.0%, L7 19.5%, season 22.2%, BVP 19.5%/113 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Javier Assad Over 5.5 (+112) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 6.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 7.7 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS .890
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 18.6%, season 20.5%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/18 (22%) | Season 4/18 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 (+108) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+108	-144	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.01 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.11x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Weathers: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.278
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.4%, L7 20.1%, season 20.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Joe Ryan Under 5.5 (-118) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 5.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 132 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .240 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 24.2%, L7 20.5%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 18.2%/132 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 4.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brady Singer Under 5.5 (+103) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +103

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.35, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brady Singer: 35 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .194 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.8%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Davis Martin Under 5.5 (+114) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +114

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-151	+114	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 35 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .161 | OPS .483
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 23.2%, L7 22.4%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 17.1%/35 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Randy Dobnak Under 5.5 (+123) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -170 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +123

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -170 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 5.5 +123; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
DK	5.5	-163	+123	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	5.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-160	+110	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+130	-170	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.87 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 8.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 58.0% / under 42.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Randy Dobnak: 25 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .613
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 19.4%, L7 17.9%, season 21.5%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/5 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 18 play(s) (C 18)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sean Manaea Over 1.5 (+102) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5051680080180594 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 7.2 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 7.2 IP (HIGH; season 10.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 8.9 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 31 PA | K% 16.1% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .269 | OPS 1.041
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 16.9%, L7 19.7%, season 22.2%, top-6 17.5%, BVP 16.1%/31 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 10.3%, L7 9.8%, season 9.6%, BVP 9.7%/31 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Hayden Wesneski Over 1.5 (+129) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9302197273064872 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 18.8% | AVG .167 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 18.6%, L7 15.2%, season 19.4%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 6.5%, L7 7.4%, season 7.3%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/1 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Trey Yesavage Over 2.5 (+112) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.1310926924085565 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 25.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.51 over 5.0 IP (BB% 11.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.20x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Trey Yesavage: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .143 | OPS .548
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.1%, L7 23.0%, season 21.6%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.9%, split 10.2%, L7 11.1%, season 8.9%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.20x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 (-122) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8379447126354287 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 24 PA | K% 41.7% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .048 | OPS .214
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.7%, L7 17.2%, season 20.8%, BVP 41.7%/24 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 6.3%, L7 8.8%, season 7.0%, BVP 12.5%/24 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-204) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+152	-204	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.065079514255103 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.6 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.2% / under 62.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 113 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .240 | OPS .734
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.0%, L7 19.5%, season 22.2%, BVP 19.5%/113 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.4%, L7 8.9%, season 9.2%, BVP 8.0%/113 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (-158) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-158	+118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7565863420446113 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.7 IP (BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.2% / under 42.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.8%, L7 21.6%, season 21.1% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 10.9%, L7 12.5%, season 10.7% (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Blade Tidwell Under 1.5 (+150) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2703163204549994 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 3.6 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.6 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 1.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 62.5% / under 37.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 22.8%, L7 29.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 6.9%, L7 9.5%, season 8.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/8 (100%) | L20 8/8 (100%) | Season 8/8 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.38 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/8 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cade Povich Over 1.5 (-128) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.693075289225356 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Povich: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 26.9%, split 24.5%, L7 27.6%, season 25.2%, BVP 37.5%/8 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 10.7%, L7 6.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/8 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.75 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/4 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Javier Assad Over 1.5 (-152) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-152	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6827517809168555 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 7.7 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS .890
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 18.6%, season 20.5%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 11.9%, L7 6.2%, season 9.9%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gabriel Hughes Over 1.5 (-103) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6805190105380259 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.3%, L7 19.8%, season 19.1% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 9.1%, L7 4.1%, season 8.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/5 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Weathers Over 1.5 (+115) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.6414448950364346 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Weathers: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.278
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.4%, L7 20.1%, season 20.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 10.9%, L7 9.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — JT Ginn Under 2.5 (-178) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-175	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.305245268561719 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.4 IP (BB% 10.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.8 IP/GS; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.1% / under 59.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, L7 5.8%, season 8.9% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Gusto Under 1.5 (-148) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4037297681353331 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.0 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Gusto: 29 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 13.8% | AVG .292 | OPS .997
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 21.7%, L7 19.7%, season 21.2%, top-6 19.8%, BVP 17.2%/29 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 8.3%, L7 6.3%, season 8.0%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.8% (4/6); lineup K% 22.2% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Patrick Sandoval Over 1.5 (-143) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5572304790921145 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Patrick Sandoval: 20 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .368 | OPS .768
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.5%, L7 26.4%, season 23.8%, BVP 20.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 9.2%, L7 7.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 5.0%/20 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/4 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Emerson Hancock Under 1.5 (-147) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.443815127975884 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.1 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .667 | OPS 2.111
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.2%, L7 17.8%, season 22.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 10.8%, L7 10.5%, season 9.4% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Davis Martin Under 1.5 (-133) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.4726819856348579 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 35 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .161 | OPS .483
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 23.2%, L7 22.4%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 17.1%/35 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 6.9%, L7 9.7%, season 8.1%, BVP 2.9%/35 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Henderson Under 1.5 (-210) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+157	-210	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4816213138889862 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 4.8 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 36.5% / under 63.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 6 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.8%, L7 22.0%, season 24.1% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 10.1%, L7 8.7%, season 9.3% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/9 (78%) | L20 7/9 (78%) | Season 7/9 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/9 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Randy Vasquez Under 1.5 (-174) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.4831970773105503 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.4 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 3.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.6% / under 59.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Vásquez: 62 PA | K% 11.3% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .302 | OPS .880
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 17.9%, L7 19.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 11.3%/62 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 11.1%, L7 7.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 9.7%/62 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 21 play(s) (C 21)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Manaea Over 2.5 (+101) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.29 over 7.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 7.2 IP (HIGH; season 10.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 8.9 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 31 PA | K% 16.1% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .269 | OPS 1.041
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 16.9%, L7 19.7%, season 22.2%, top-6 17.5%, BVP 16.1%/31 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 5/23 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (-168) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	-
DK	1.5	-168	+126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.54 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.29)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.8%, L7 21.6%, season 21.1% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Patrick Sandoval Under 2.5 (-150) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+113	-150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.14 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Patrick Sandoval: 20 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .368 | OPS .768
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.5%, L7 26.4%, season 23.8%, BVP 20.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.75 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/4 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hayden Wesneski Over 2.5 (+127) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	-
DK	2.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.01 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 18.8% | AVG .167 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 18.6%, L7 15.2%, season 19.4%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/1 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-130) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	-105	-
DK	2.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.08 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 6.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.0%, L7 23.4%, season 24.3% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grant Holmes Under 2.5 (-142) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.82)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 33 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .172 | OPS .480
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 17.0%, L7 19.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 30.3%/33 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Gusto Under 2.5 (-120) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.58 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.89)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Gusto: 29 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 13.8% | AVG .292 | OPS .997
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 21.7%, L7 19.7%, season 21.2%, top-6 19.8%, BVP 17.2%/29 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.8% (4/6); lineup K% 22.2% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trey Yesavage Under 2.5 (-124) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.93 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Trey Yesavage: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .143 | OPS .548
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.1%, L7 23.0%, season 21.6%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Emerson Hancock Under 2.5 (-174) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.74 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.89)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.6% / under 59.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .667 | OPS 2.111
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.2%, L7 17.8%, season 22.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Joe Ryan Under 2.5 (-131) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	-102	-131	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.89 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 132 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .240 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 24.2%, L7 20.5%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 18.2%/132 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Carson Palmquist Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.81 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.81)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.2 IP/GS; recent 1.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 3.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.6% / under 59.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Carson Palmquist: 26 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .391 | OPS 1.157
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 23.8%, L7 18.7%, season 23.6%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 19.2%/26 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (5/6); lineup K% 20.3% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/10 (30%) | Season 3/10 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Povich Under 2.5 (-149) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-185	-
DK	2.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.74 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.81)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.95x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Povich: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 26.9%, split 24.5%, L7 27.6%, season 25.2%, BVP 37.5%/8 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.75 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — JT Ginn Under 2.5 (-122) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.94 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.8 IP/GS; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brady Singer Over 2.5 (-121) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-121	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.46 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brady Singer: 35 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .194 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.8%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Dobbins Over 2.5 (-116) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	-
DK	2.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.96 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.89)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 8.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hunter Dobbins: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .210 | OPS .421
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 19.7%, L7 25.5%, season 24.4%, top-6 22.1%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/7 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Davis Martin Under 2.5 (+101) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	-
DK	2.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.35 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.52)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 35 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .161 | OPS .483
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 23.2%, L7 22.4%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 17.1%/35 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Javier Assad Over 2.5 (-121) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.90 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.03)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 7.7 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS .890
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 18.6%, season 20.5%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/18 (22%) | Season 4/18 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-101) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-105	-
DK	2.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.63 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.75)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 86 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .260 | OPS .810
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.9%, L7 26.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 17.4%/86 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-124) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-107	-124	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.88 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 113 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .240 | OPS .734
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.0%, L7 19.5%, season 22.2%, BVP 19.5%/113 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Dobnak Under 2.5 (+104) Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
DK	2.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.70 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.48)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 8.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Randy Dobnak: 25 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .613
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 19.4%, L7 17.9%, season 21.5%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/5 (100%) | L20 5/5 (100%) | Season 5/5 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/5 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Vasquez Under 2.5 (-151) Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-185	-
DK	2.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.97 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 3.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Vásquez: 62 PA | K% 11.3% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .302 | OPS .880
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 17.9%, L7 19.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 11.3%/62 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ No HR — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (+822) edge 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 +822

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.588 (raw=1.881, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=+0.00)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.96x (base lambda 1.660)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Joey Cantillo pitch-quality 0.98x (RV/100 -0.4, xwOBA 0.304, HH% 36.8, mix FF/CU, n=1977)
Sean Manaea pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 -0.5, xwOBA 0.325, HH% 39.6, mix FF/ST, n=1608)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
New York Mets lineup vs pitch mix 1.01x (xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.414, hitters 9, mix FF/CU)
Cleveland Guardians lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.360, hitters 9, mix FF/ST)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.97x
Cleveland Guardians bullpen HR 0.95x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 4.2 IP)
New York Mets bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 1.5 IP)
P(no HR) = 20.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 52.9%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Joey Cantillo): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Sean Manaea): 0.0000 HR/BF
Jo Adell: 0.0360 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1549 lambda
A.J. Ewing: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Chase DeLauter: 0.0316 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.1326 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.3% (16 batter lines used) edge = +10.1%

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (+822) edge 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 +822

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.588 (raw=1.881, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=+0.00)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.96x (base lambda 1.660)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Joey Cantillo pitch-quality 0.98x (RV/100 -0.4, xwOBA 0.304, HH% 36.8, mix FF/CU, n=1977)
Sean Manaea pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 -0.5, xwOBA 0.325, HH% 39.6, mix FF/ST, n=1608)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
New York Mets lineup vs pitch mix 1.01x (xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.414, hitters 9, mix FF/CU)
Cleveland Guardians lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.360, hitters 9, mix FF/ST)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.97x
Cleveland Guardians bullpen HR 0.95x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 4.2 IP)
New York Mets bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 1.5 IP)
P(no HR) = 20.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 52.9%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Joey Cantillo): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Sean Manaea): 0.0000 HR/BF
Jo Adell: 0.0360 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1549 lambda
A.J. Ewing: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Chase DeLauter: 0.0316 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.1326 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.3% (16 batter lines used) edge = +10.1%

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ Total — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-126) edge 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7 -126

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7.5 at 9 books | 7 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 7 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetUS Over 7.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	7	-126	-	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	7.5	-105	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-103	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-105	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	7.5	+100	-	-
FanDuel	7.5	-110	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+100	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	+100	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Logan Henderson (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Jared Jones (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 46%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-105) edge 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -105

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-105	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	+100	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-108	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+100	-	-
DK	7.5	-105	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-102	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+103	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-105	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Sean Manaea (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Progressive Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 100 (team 94)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 66%, bullpen 34%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-108) edge 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 7.5 -130 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8 -108

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 9 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 7.5 -130 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 8 -104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	-130	-	Recommended
BetMGM	8	-110	-	-
BetOnline	8	-107	-	-
BetRivers	8	-104	-	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	8	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-110	-	-
DK	8	-108	-	Selected
FanDuel	8	-105	-	-
LowVig	8	-104	-	-
MyBookie	8	-108	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: MacKenzie Gore (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Blade Tidwell (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 53%, bullpen 47%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Blade Tidwell small sample (12 IP) — stats 15% actual / 85% league avg (regression applied)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.5 8.5 (-102) edge 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 8 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -102

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8.5

Line distribution: 8.5 at 8 books | 8 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 8 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 8.5 +101; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-120	-	Recommended
MyBookie	8	-121	-	-
BetOnline	8.5	-102	-	-
BetRivers	8.5	-103	-	-
BetUS	8.5	+100	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-105	-	-
DK	8.5	-102	-	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-105	-	-
LowVig	8.5	+101	-	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	8.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model total: 9.7 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Ryan Weathers (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Hunter Dobbins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 113 (team 101)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.7
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Hunter Dobbins small sample (33 IP) — stats 41% actual / 59% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-114) edge 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -114

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-115	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-111	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-115	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-110	-	-
DK	7.5	-114	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-115	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-108	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-115	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Emerson Hancock (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Troy Melton (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

▸ F5 ML — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Washington Nationals (+210) edge 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +235 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +210

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +235 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Jesús Luzardo xFIP 4.20
Carson Palmquist xFIP 4.20
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 113 (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 107)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jesús Luzardo (LHP)
Away SP: Carson Palmquist (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High F5 edge 18% (≥18%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Chicago Cubs (+160) edge 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +183 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +160

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +183 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Javier Assad xFIP 4.20
Tarik Skubal xFIP 4.20
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 120 blended 50% (team 107)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Javier Assad (RHP)
Away SP: Tarik Skubal (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — St. Louis Cardinals (+160) edge 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (F5) | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars +165 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +160

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: Caesars +165 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Ryan Weathers xFIP 4.20
Hunter Dobbins xFIP 4.20
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 115 (team 101)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 107 (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Weathers (LHP)
Away SP: Hunter Dobbins (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — San Francisco Giants (+150) edge 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (F5) | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS +165 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +150

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetUS +165 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Globe Life Field (HITTER)
MacKenzie Gore xFIP 4.20
Blade Tidwell xFIP 4.20
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: MacKenzie Gore (LHP)
Away SP: Blade Tidwell (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Kansas City Royals (+130) edge 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals (F5) | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +130 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +130

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +130 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Randy Dobnak xFIP 4.20
Joe Ryan xFIP 4.20
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 102 (team 99)
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Away SP: Joe Ryan (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — New York Mets (+124) edge 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians (F5) | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM +130 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +124

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetMGM +130 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Progressive Field (NEUTRAL)
Joey Cantillo xFIP 4.20
Sean Manaea xFIP 4.20
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 100 (team 94)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 121 (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP)
Away SP: Sean Manaea (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+120) edge 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5) | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +135 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +120

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +135 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Gabriel Hughes xFIP 4.20
Freddy Peralta xFIP 4.20
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 104)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP)
Away SP: Freddy Peralta (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Washington Nationals (+262) edge 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK +262 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +262

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: DK +262 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Underdog ML value — Washington Nationals at +262 with 21.2% edge (EV $+75.15/$100)
Home SP: Jesús Luzardo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Carson Palmquist (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 53%, bullpen 47%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Carson Palmquist small sample (16 IP) — stats 20% actual / 80% league avg (regression applied)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 67.5% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 22.8% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +114 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Batter HR — 258 play(s) (C 258)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 98.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0095
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.322 (16 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/105 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 104/105 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 98.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0096
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/104 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 103/104 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 94.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.300 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/105 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/48 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 105/105 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0303
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.411 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/99 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 96/99 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — John Rave Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James McCann Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nelson Velazquez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [IL] Brendan Donovan -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Brendan Donovan -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brady House Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0381
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.291 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/105 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/49 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 101/105 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0381
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/105 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 101/105 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-700) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-800) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-700) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 91.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0541
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.284 (45 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/111 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 105/111 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0556
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (35 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 89.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0531
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 107/113 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 107/113 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0556
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.199 (45 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 102/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0571
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.233 (34 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/105 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 99/105 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0594
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.357 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 10 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/101 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 95/101 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0700
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.473 (13 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 93/100 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 93/100 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 86.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0755
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.350 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 99/106 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/106 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 86.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0792
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 93/101 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 93/101 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0561
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.432 (42 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0652
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.394 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 86/92 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 86/92 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 85.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0748
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.327 (30 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0721
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/111 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 104/111 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0777
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (31 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/103 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/103 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.279 (18 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0654
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.355 (26 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 101/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0857
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.164 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/105 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/105 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0841
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.209 (33 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.293 (56 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/108 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 99/108 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 83.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0727
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.267 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/110 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 102/110 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-900) diff 83.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0962
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/104 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 94/104 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0893
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (56 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/112 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 104/112 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/109 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/109 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 82.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.455 (82 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/109 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/109 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 81.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0849
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.517 (150 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 97/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 81.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0865
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.527 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 18 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.244
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/104 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 96/104 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 81.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.389 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 17 PA | 7/16 | HR 1 | K% 11.8% | BB% 5.9% | OPS 1.283
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/110 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 100/110 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0962
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.341 (13 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/104 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 95/104 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-900) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1019
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.089 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/108 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 97/108 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.412 (153 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .829
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/109 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 100/109 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1019
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.394 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.211 (49 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.216 (68 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-700) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1284
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.360 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/109 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/109 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-700) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1340
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.190 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1161
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.398 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/112 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 100/112 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-650) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1028
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.613 (25 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/107 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 97/107 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1161
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.398 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/112 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 100/112 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1071
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/112 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/112 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (30 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 73/81 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 73/81 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 78.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1122
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.283 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .974
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/98 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 88/98 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.388 (32 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/112 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 101/112 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1182
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/110 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/110 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-900) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1081
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.413 (142 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/111 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/111 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-750) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1316
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.418 (77 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1204
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.111 (23 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.350 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/108 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 97/108 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1239
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.484 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 100/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1239
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.484 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 100/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1239
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.484 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 100/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1204
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.339 (38 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/108 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 96/108 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.680 (67 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.680 (67 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-800) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.680 (67 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-550) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1290
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.196 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/93 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 82/93 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 85/96 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1348
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.341 (10 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/89 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 78/89 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.395 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1263
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/95 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 84/95 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.503 (51 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1346
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.334 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-650) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.196 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .889
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/105 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 90/105 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1383
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.467 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 35 PA | 8/34 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .581
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/94 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 82/94 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1277
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.536 (23 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/94 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 82/94 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.386 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/108 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 96/108 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.171 (49 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 95/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1509
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.480 (16 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.238 (33 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-600) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.438 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1651
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (81 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1524
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 28 PA | 7/27 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 3.6% | OPS .767
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/105 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 89/105 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.286 (43 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1524
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.204 (11 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/105 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 90/105 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1386
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.387 (45 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 67/78 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/39 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 67/78 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/108 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 93/108 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.535 (148 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1495
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.314 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.264 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/108 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 91/108 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1569
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.532 (69 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/102 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 87/102 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1569
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.532 (69 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/102 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 87/102 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (66 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 95/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-600) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1560
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.371 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/109 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/109 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-600) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1731
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 89/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1759
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.395 (55 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/108 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 90/108 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Pages Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1607
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.420 (144 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/112 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 96/112 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-750) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1607
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.420 (144 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/112 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 96/112 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1463
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.229 (44 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/82 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 27/34 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 70/82 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.472 (112 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1607
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.456 (119 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/112 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 95/112 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1802
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.223 (45 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/111 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 92/111 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.387 (150 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 16 PA | 5/15 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/109 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 94/109 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1979
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/96 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 77/96 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 63.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1961
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.577 (35 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/102 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 82/102 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 63.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2035
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.466 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/113 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 92/113 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-475) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1700
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.517 (12 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/100 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 85/100 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-550) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.505 (47 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .111
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/88 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 75/88 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-550) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1743
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.311 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-600) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1939
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.312 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/98 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 81/98 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-600) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1957
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/92 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 75/92 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-900) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2124
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.488 (59 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 91/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-550) diff 60.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1622
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (75 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/111 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 94/111 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-450) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2190
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.513 (56 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/105 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 85/105 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.709 (11 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/110 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 89/110 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1887
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.532 (80 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/106 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 88/106 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-600) diff 58.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1982
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.492 (61 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2545
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.292 (41 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 84/110 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2091
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.325 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | 8/45 | HR 1 | K% 13.7% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .586
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 51 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/110 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 89/110 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2162
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.387 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-500) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1935
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.448 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cade Povich: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 76/93 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 76/93 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2286
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.220 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/105 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 85/105 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-750) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1759
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.509 (152 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .697
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/108 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 90/108 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-500) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2289
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.379 (64 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/83 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/42 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 65/83 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-475) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2039
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.615 (106 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/103 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 87/103 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-650) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2233
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.448 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/103 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 81/103 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-400) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2124
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.586 (41 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 90/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-900) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2233
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.596 (36 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/103 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 83/103 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-350) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2857
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.461 (76 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/112 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 84/112 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-500) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2182
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2182
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-285) diff 51.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2243
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.555 (133 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/103 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 79/103 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 51.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2632
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.485 (59 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 85/114 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-650) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2247
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.599 (102 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/89 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/47 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 70/89 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-800) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2381
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.545 (38 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/105 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 81/105 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2381
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.545 (38 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/105 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 81/105 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-450) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2054
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.414 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.515 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 89/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-700) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2182
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.423 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.317 (44 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/110 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 87/110 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-500) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2870
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.256 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hunter Dobbins: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/108 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 78/108 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-250) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3084
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.244 (48 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/107 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 79/107 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3125
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.429 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/112 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 82/112 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3125
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.429 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/112 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 82/112 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-450) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2768
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.549 (146 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/112 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 84/112 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-400) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3204
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.390 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.300
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/103 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 78/103 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

8 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-126	53.3%	78.3%	+24.9%	$+40.39	9	Bet on DK
C	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-105	48.9%	71.5%	+22.6%	$+39.54	9	Bet on DK
B	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	Run Line	Chicago Cubs +1.5	DK	+100	47.8%	69.4%	+21.6%	$+38.84	9	Bet on DK
C	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:40 PM	Moneyline	Washington Nationals	DK	+262	27.2%	48.4%	+21.1%	$+75.15	9	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-108	49.6%	70.6%	+21.0%	$+35.91	9	Bet on DK
C	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Total	Over 8.5	DK	-102	48.2%	65.9%	+17.8%	$+30.56	9	Bet on DK
A	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Run Line	Kansas City Royals +1.5	DK	-131	54.2%	69.6%	+15.3%	$+22.70	9	Bet on DK
C	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-114	51.0%	66.2%	+15.2%	$+24.22	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (8 play(s))

C Over 7.0 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +24.9%

Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Logan Henderson (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Jared Jones (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 46%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.5 — New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians (Total) +22.6%

Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Sean Manaea (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Progressive Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 100 (team 94)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 66%, bullpen 34%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

B Chicago Cubs +1.5 — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (Run Line) +21.6%

Model run margin: -0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+38.84/$100
✓ Cover prob 69.4% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 21.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 0 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds +100 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Javier Assad (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Tarik Skubal (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 105)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 71%, bullpen 29%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (Moneyline) +21.1%

Underdog ML value — Washington Nationals at +262 with 21.2% edge (EV $+75.15/$100)
Home SP: Jesús Luzardo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Carson Palmquist (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 53%, bullpen 47%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Carson Palmquist small sample (16 IP) — stats 20% actual / 80% league avg (regression applied)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 67.5% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 22.8% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +114 within price guard (-160 floor)

C Over 8.0 — San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (Total) +21.0%

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: MacKenzie Gore (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Blade Tidwell (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 53%, bullpen 47%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Blade Tidwell small sample (12 IP) — stats 15% actual / 85% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 8.5 — St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (Total) +17.8%

Model total: 9.7 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Ryan Weathers (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Hunter Dobbins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 113 (team 101)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.7
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Hunter Dobbins small sample (33 IP) — stats 41% actual / 59% league avg (regression applied)

A Kansas City Royals +1.5 — Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals (Run Line) +15.3%

Model run margin: +0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+22.70/$100
✓ Cover prob 69.6% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.3% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 67% (6 bets)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -131 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joe Ryan (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 99)
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Randy Dobnak small sample (26 IP) — stats 32% actual / 68% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.5 — Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners (Total) +15.2%

Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Emerson Hancock (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Troy Melton (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

11 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:40 PM	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	DK	+210	30.4%	48.8%	+18.4%	$+51.28	8	Bet on DK
C	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	8:06 PM	F5 ML	Chicago Cubs	DK	+160	36.2%	50.3%	+14.1%	$+30.83	9	Bet on DK
B	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5)	7:40 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-140	54.8%	68.6%	+13.8%	$+17.55	6	Bet on DK
C	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (F5)	7:06 PM	F5 ML	St. Louis Cardinals	DK	+160	36.2%	48.4%	+12.2%	$+25.96	8	Bet on DK
B	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians (F5)	6:40 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-146	55.7%	67.7%	+12.0%	$+14.11	5	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (F5)	8:06 PM	F5 ML	San Francisco Giants	DK	+150	37.7%	49.5%	+11.8%	$+23.66	8	Bet on DK
B	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (F5)	6:36 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-144	55.3%	65.1%	+9.8%	$+10.33	5	Bet on DK
C	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals (F5)	7:41 PM	F5 ML	Kansas City Royals	DK	+130	41.1%	50.6%	+9.6%	$+16.44	9	Bet on DK
C	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians (F5)	6:40 PM	F5 ML	New York Mets	DK	+124	42.0%	51.3%	+9.2%	$+14.86	8	Bet on DK
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	8:41 PM	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	DK	+120	42.9%	51.0%	+8.1%	$+12.10	8	Bet on DK
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	8:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	+104	46.0%	54.0%	+8.0%	$+10.27	5	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (11 play(s))

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 ML) +18.4%

Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Jesús Luzardo xFIP 4.20
Carson Palmquist xFIP 4.20
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 113 (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 107)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jesús Luzardo (LHP)
Away SP: Carson Palmquist (LHP)

C Chicago Cubs — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 ML) +14.1%

Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Javier Assad xFIP 4.20
Tarik Skubal xFIP 4.20
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 120 blended 50% (team 107)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Javier Assad (RHP)
Away SP: Tarik Skubal (LHP)

B Over 3.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) (F5 Total) +13.8%

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Logan Henderson xFIP 4.20
Jared Jones xFIP 4.20
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Logan Henderson (RHP)
Away SP: Jared Jones (RHP)

C St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (F5) (F5 ML) +12.2%

Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Ryan Weathers xFIP 4.20
Hunter Dobbins xFIP 4.20
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 115 (team 101)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 107 (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Weathers (LHP)
Away SP: Hunter Dobbins (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians (F5) (F5 Total) +12.0%

F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Progressive Field (NEUTRAL)
Joey Cantillo xFIP 4.20
Sean Manaea xFIP 4.20
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 100 (team 94)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 121 (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP)
Away SP: Sean Manaea (LHP)

C San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (F5) (F5 ML) +11.8%

Globe Life Field (HITTER)
MacKenzie Gore xFIP 4.20
Blade Tidwell xFIP 4.20
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: MacKenzie Gore (LHP)
Away SP: Blade Tidwell (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (F5) (F5 Total) +9.8%

F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Camden Yards (PITCHER)
Cade Povich xFIP 4.20
Grayson Rodriguez xFIP 4.20
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 104 (team 99)
Los Angeles Angels confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 107 (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cade Povich (LHP)
Away SP: Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)

C Kansas City Royals — Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals (F5) (F5 ML) +9.6%

Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Randy Dobnak xFIP 4.20
Joe Ryan xFIP 4.20
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 102 (team 99)
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Away SP: Joe Ryan (RHP)

C New York Mets — New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians (F5) (F5 ML) +9.2%

Progressive Field (NEUTRAL)
Joey Cantillo xFIP 4.20
Sean Manaea xFIP 4.20
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 100 (team 94)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 121 (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP)
Away SP: Sean Manaea (LHP)

C Colorado Rockies — Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 ML) +8.1%

Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Gabriel Hughes xFIP 4.20
Freddy Peralta xFIP 4.20
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 104)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP)
Away SP: Freddy Peralta (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 Total) +8.0%

F5 model: 5.2 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Gabriel Hughes xFIP 4.20
Freddy Peralta xFIP 4.20
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 104)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP)
Away SP: Freddy Peralta (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles

6:36 PM · decision fi-868a0567f4db8e88

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 48.4% / YRFI 51.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Grayson Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cade Povich · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.484
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Grayson Rodriguez / Cade Povich announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.484

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGrayson Rodriguez / Cade Povich announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-105	-120	48.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds

6:40 PM · decision fi-8a519499591697bd

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.3% / YRFI 50.7%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: J.T. Ginn · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Brady Singer · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.493
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
J.T. Ginn / Brady Singer announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.493

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJ.T. Ginn / Brady Singer announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-115	49.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-108	-130	47.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-104	-122	48.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians

6:40 PM · decision fi-180fad48fe312916

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.7% / YRFI 49.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Sean Manaea · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Joey Cantillo · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sean Manaea / Joey Cantillo announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSean Manaea / Joey Cantillo announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-141	+106	54.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-130	-106	52.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-150	+118	56.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:40 PM · decision fi-7750b2e537993e20

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.1% / YRFI 48.9%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Carson Palmquist · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jesús Luzardo · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.511
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Carson Palmquist / Jesús Luzardo announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.511

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCarson Palmquist / Jesús Luzardo announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-115	49.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-111	-119	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+102	-134	46.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+108	-138	45.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees

7:06 PM · decision fi-70bda5dcae415ee9

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.1% / YRFI 49.9%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Hunter Dobbins · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ryan Weathers · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.501
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Hunter Dobbins / Ryan Weathers announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.501

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSHunter Dobbins / Ryan Weathers announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNconfirmed / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-121	-115	50.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

7:11 PM · decision fi-0160e29038b15e29

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.6% / YRFI 50.4%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Davis Martin · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Patrick Sandoval · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.496
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Davis Martin / Patrick Sandoval announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.496

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDavis Martin / Patrick Sandoval announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-132	+104	53.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-7b122dc6c3ad3dbd

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.8% / YRFI 50.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Ryan Gusto · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Grant Holmes · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ryan Gusto / Grant Holmes announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRyan Gusto / Grant Holmes announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-105	-120	48.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+100	-132	46.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+112	-142	44.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

7:40 PM · decision fi-0632c43ceddd946c

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 52.2% / YRFI 47.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jared Jones · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Henderson · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.522
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jared Jones / Logan Henderson announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.522

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJared Jones / Logan Henderson announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-150	+115	56.3%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-141	+106	54.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-129	-104	52.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-146	+114	55.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals

7:41 PM · decision fi-ab6a6814f27d2f63

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.9% / YRFI 50.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Joe Ryan · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Randy Dobnak · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Joe Ryan / Randy Dobnak announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJoe Ryan / Randy Dobnak announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-111	-119	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-107	-125	48.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs

8:06 PM · decision fi-bdfeccf6d69cc891

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.2% / YRFI 48.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Tarik Skubal · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Javier Assad · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Tarik Skubal / Javier Assad announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTarik Skubal / Javier Assad announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-115	49.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-116	-114	50.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+102	-130	46.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers

8:06 PM · decision fi-1242e6db9c2c5cbd

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.2% / YRFI 50.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Blade Tidwell · official_announced · matched

Home starter: MacKenzie Gore · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.492
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Blade Tidwell / MacKenzie Gore announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.492

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBlade Tidwell / MacKenzie Gore announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros

8:10 PM · decision fi-f1742c347f78ecdc

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 48.1% / YRFI 51.9%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Trey Yesavage · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Hayden Wesneski · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.481
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Trey Yesavage / Hayden Wesneski announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.481

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTrey Yesavage / Hayden Wesneski announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies

8:41 PM · decision fi-057b9739419efeab

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 45.1% / YRFI 54.9%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Freddy Peralta · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Gabriel Hughes · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.451
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Freddy Peralta / Gabriel Hughes announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.451

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSFreddy Peralta / Gabriel Hughes announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+115	-150	43.7%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+112	-149	44.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+102	-130	46.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+115	-145	44.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:41 PM · decision fi-5e965e65e32a17fa

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.2% / YRFI 50.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Randy Vásquez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Eduardo Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.492
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Randy Vásquez / Eduardo Rodriguez announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.492

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRandy Vásquez / Eduardo Rodriguez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-105	-120	48.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-103	-128	47.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-105	-137	47.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners

9:41 PM · decision fi-b2662707939b8263

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.4% / YRFI 49.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Troy Melton · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Emerson Hancock · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-03 · updated 2026-08-04T19:32:38.353843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.504
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Troy Melton / Emerson Hancock announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.504

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTroy Melton / Emerson Hancock announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-130	-102	52.8%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-129	-104	52.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 258 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=258
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	3	Ryan Gusto (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	38.4%	24.3%	+14.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	2	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	34.5%	24.3%	+10.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-	Javier Assad (R)	theScore Bet	+200	-	30.9%	31.1%	-0.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	4	Ryan Gusto (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	30.6%	17.9%	+12.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	30.2%	20.8%	+9.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-	Javier Assad (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	30.0%	23.2%	+6.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	1	Ryan Gusto (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	30.0%	18.8%	+11.2%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Gabriel Hughes (R)	theScore Bet	+230	-	29.6%	28.0%	+1.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	2	J.T. Ginn (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.3%	18.8%	+10.5%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Freddy Peralta (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	29.0%	25.8%	+3.2%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	3	Brady Singer (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	29.0%	23.2%	+5.8%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	3	Patrick Sandoval (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	28.5%	23.1%	+5.4%	95	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Randy Vásquez (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	28.4%	17.1%	+11.3%	95	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	2	Hunter Dobbins (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	27.9%	23.1%	+4.8%	93	-
Best HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	-	Emerson Hancock (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	27.5%	15.6%	+11.9%	92	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Bleday	Cincinnati Reds	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	3	J.T. Ginn (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	27.1%	23.1%	+4.0%	90	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:40 PM	3	Carson Palmquist (L)	theScore Bet	+260	-	26.6%	25.8%	+0.8%	89	-
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Randy Vásquez (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	26.5%	17.1%	+9.4%	88	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	1	J.T. Ginn (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	26.4%	19.7%	+6.7%	88	-
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	4	Davis Martin (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	26.2%	18.8%	+7.4%	87	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	91.3%	-1048	Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Kyle Stowers, Drake Baldwin	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	100	91.2%	-1037	Sal Stewart, Tyler Soderstrom, JJ Bleday, Elly De La Cruz	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	90.1%	-911	Ben Rice, Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages, Nelson Velazquez	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	100	89.6%	-863	Miguel Vargas, Willson Contreras, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	100	88.8%	-796	Pete Alonso, Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Coby Mayo	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:40 PM	100	87.8%	-719	Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, James Wood, CJ Abrams	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	100	87.1%	-673	Jac Caglianone, Kody Clemens, Carter Jensen, Ryan Jeffers	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.9%	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	85.3%	-580	Ildemaro Vargas, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Manny Machado	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	100	85.0%	-568	Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Pete Crow-Armstrong	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05	-
Watchlist	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	100	85.0%	-565	Junior Caminero, Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak, Victor Mesa Jr.	Coors Field HR factor 1.20	-
Watchlist	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	100	84.8%	-557	Osleivis Basabe, Rafael Devers, Bryce Eldridge, Elias Diaz	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	100	84.1%	-527	Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Dominic Canzone, Riley Greene	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	100	83.8%	-519	Jake Bauers, Brandon Lowe, Endy Rodriguez, Christian Yelich	American Family Field HR factor 1.08	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	100	83.7%	-512	Kazuma Okamoto, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	86	79.6%	-389	Eddy Alvarez, Jo Adell, Rhys Hoskins, Gabriel Arias	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 20.4%, P(U1.5) 52.9%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Matt Olson — Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (+280) HR chance 38.4% | edge +14.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.277, OPS 0.883, ISO 0.275, TB/G 2.11
Statcast: barrel 14.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.6/111.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.515
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 28/112 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 19.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.331, xERA 4.65, whiff 20.7%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.500, K% 16.7% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.071, OPS 0.920, ISO 0.305 (282 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Pete Alonso — Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (+280) HR chance 34.5% | edge +10.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.205, OPS 0.811, ISO 0.214, TB/G 1.74
Statcast: barrel 12.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.0/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.512
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/112 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 17.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.414, xERA 7.93, whiff 22.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.858, ISO 0.237 (344 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.515, xwOBA 0.394 (66 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (+200) HR chance 30.9% | edge -0.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.224, OPS 0.940, ISO 0.248, TB/G 2.00
Statcast: barrel 16.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.8/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.578
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/103 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 17.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.329, xERA 4.58, whiff 14.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.044, OPS 0.943, ISO 0.235 (321 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch 4-Seam Fastball: xSLG 0.555, xwOBA 0.406 (133 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance Michael Harris II — Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (+425) HR chance 30.6% | edge +12.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.189, OPS 0.803, ISO 0.201, TB/G 1.86
Statcast: barrel 11.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.9/114.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.496
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 18/106 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 19.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.331, xERA 4.65, whiff 20.7%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.833, K% 16.7% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.049, OPS 0.807, ISO 0.205 (264 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Kyle Stowers — Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (+350) HR chance 30.2% | edge +9.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.182, OPS 0.778, ISO 0.225, TB/G 1.72
Statcast: barrel 12.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.436
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 13/88 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 19.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.336, xERA 4.81, whiff 25.9%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.111, K% 44.4% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.854, ISO 0.258 (293 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Max Muncy — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (+300) HR chance 30.0% | edge +6.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.204, OPS 0.842, ISO 0.238, TB/G 1.63
Statcast: barrel 13.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.4/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.476
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 16/103 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 17.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.329, xERA 4.58, whiff 14.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.053, OPS 0.845, ISO 0.238 (300 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch 4-Seam Fastball: xSLG 0.615, xwOBA 0.429 (106 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

Best HR Chance Drake Baldwin — Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (+400) HR chance 30.0% | edge +11.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.225, OPS 0.832, ISO 0.195, TB/G 1.81
Statcast: barrel 14.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.6/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.521
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 19/89 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 19.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.331, xERA 4.65, whiff 20.7%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.533, K% 16.7% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.054, OPS 0.896, ISO 0.209 (241 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Strong HR Chance Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (+230) HR chance 29.6% | edge +1.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.286, OPS 0.930, ISO 0.274, TB/G 2.11
Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.9/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.507
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 28/112 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 21.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.238, xERA 2.33, whiff 18.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.071, OPS 0.913, ISO 0.288 (350 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.461, xwOBA 0.342 (76 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Elite contact-quality suppressor

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:40 PM	+1400	0.4%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Steven Kwan	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	+1400	0.5%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Troy Johnston	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	+800	0.6%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+1000	0.7%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	+900	0.8%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:40 PM	+1100	0.8%	Batter stats team San Francisco Giants does not match game teams \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Nico Hoerner	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	+1100	0.9%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Xavier Edwards	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+1100	1.0%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Andres Gimenez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	+800	1.1%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Josh Naylor	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+550	1.1%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	Signal Result
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	Joey Cantillo	Sean Manaea	0.95	20.4% MODEL SIGNAL	52.9% MODEL SIGNAL	10.3%	+10.1%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	Hayden Wesneski	Trey Yesavage	1.00	16.3%	46.0%	-	+0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:40 PM	Logan Henderson	Jared Jones	1.08	16.2%	45.6%	-	+0.0%
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	Emerson Hancock	Troy Melton	0.92	15.9%	45.2%	-	+0.0%
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	MacKenzie Gore	Blade Tidwell	1.10	15.2%	43.9%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	Javier Assad	Tarik Skubal	1.05	15.0%	43.4%	-	+0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	Gabriel Hughes	Freddy Peralta	1.20	15.0%	43.5%	-	+0.0%
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Eduardo Rodriguez	Randy Vásquez	1.02	14.7%	42.9%	-	+0.0%
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Randy Dobnak	Joe Ryan	0.93	12.9%	39.4%	6.0%	+6.9%
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:40 PM	Jesús Luzardo	Carson Palmquist	1.10	12.2%	37.9%	6.4%	+5.8%
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	Cade Povich	Grayson Rodriguez	1.00	11.2%	35.6%	4.8%	+6.3%
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Patrick Sandoval	Davis Martin	0.95	10.4%	33.9%	8.4%	+2.0%
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Ryan Weathers	Hunter Dobbins	1.18	9.9%	32.8%	6.9%	+2.9%
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	Brady Singer	J.T. Ginn	1.15	8.8%	30.2%	5.6%	+3.2%
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Grant Holmes	Ryan Gusto	1.03	8.7%	30.0%	7.8%	+0.9%

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (20.4%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (52.9%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.588 (raw=1.881, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=+0.00)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.96x (base lambda 1.660)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Joey Cantillo pitch-quality 0.98x (RV/100 -0.4, xwOBA 0.304, HH% 36.8, mix FF/CU, n=1977)
Sean Manaea pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 -0.5, xwOBA 0.325, HH% 39.6, mix FF/ST, n=1608)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
New York Mets lineup vs pitch mix 1.01x (xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.414, hitters 9, mix FF/CU)
Cleveland Guardians lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.360, hitters 9, mix FF/ST)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.97x
Cleveland Guardians bullpen HR 0.95x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 4.2 IP)
New York Mets bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 1.5 IP)
P(no HR) = 20.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 52.9%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Joey Cantillo): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Sean Manaea): 0.0000 HR/BF
Jo Adell: 0.0360 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1549 lambda
A.J. Ewing: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Chase DeLauter: 0.0316 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.1326 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.3% (16 batter lines used) edge = +10.1%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	70.4	71.1	73.0	4	Sweeper (48% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	69.6	62.8	80.0	4	Changeup (36% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.255, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs	69.1	71.3	73.0	5	Changeup (51% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 24.1%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	68.8	70.4	72.0	4	Changeup (36% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros	63.5	63.5	65.5	3	Split-Finger (39% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays	61.7	35.5	88.5	6	Slider (19% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.238, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers	61.0	64.6	60.0	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 41% usage)	Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	59.9	64.9	56.0	5	Changeup (41% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	58.9	56.5	67.0	6	Slider (34% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	57.3	54.3	63.0	6	Sweeper (37% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies	55.8	55.3	56.0	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants	55.5	56.8	56.0	6	Changeup (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds	54.6	59.7	53.5	5	Changeup (35% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	53.1	59.9	46.0	5	Changeup (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals	53.1	61.1	46.5	5	Sweeper (40% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hunter Dobbins	St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees	52.7	48.8	58.0	6	Split-Finger (25% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	49.4	50.3	50.0	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	48.5	50.6	47.5	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	46.3	42.3	47.5	4	Sweeper (31% whiff, 42% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	45.2	51.4	37.0	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	45.0	50.4	39.5	6	Slider (40% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians	45.0	43.4	45.0	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cade Povich	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	44.0	52.8	31.5	5	Slider (40% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	43.2	44.2	42.0	7	4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	38.8	34.2	43.0	5	Sweeper (38% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 11.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	38.7	39.4	39.5	5	Changeup (24% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Javier Assad	Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers	35.4	26.1	43.0	7	4-Seam Fastball (16% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 14.3%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	30.0	56.5	0.0	5	Sweeper (40% whiff, 35% usage)	Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.423, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Randy Vásquez	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	28.5	37.3	16.5	7	4-Seam Fastball (21% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.382, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	24.5	41.7	0.5	4	Slider (37% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.414, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	L	15.7%	5.6	5.9	5.9	94	normal	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds	R	22.4%	5.2	5.8	5.6	87	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	R	18.5%	4.8	5.1	5.0	80	short	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Cade Povich	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	L	18.5%	4.6	6.4	5.7	77	short	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	L	22.9%	4.6	4.8	5.2	77	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Javier Assad	Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	19.5%	3.5	7.7	6.7	59	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	R	19.2%	4.7	5.6	5.4	79	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	R	19.6%	5.9	5.1	5.3	99	normal	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	L	27.6%	4.4	4.9	4.8	74	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	21.8%	4.8	6.1	5.7	80	short	full	88.50	11.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	R	25.6%	5.7	6.1	6.0	96	normal	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	22.1%	-	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	0.00	100.00	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%, recent_form_unavailable
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	R	17.3%	5.1	8.7	6.3	86	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	R	17.5%	4.0	4.4	4.3	67	short	full	0.50	99.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs	L	32.1%	6.1	6.0	6.0	102	deep	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	R	20.6%	2.8	4.9	4.6	47	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.8 IP/start
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	29.1%	5.1	4.9	5.0	86	short	full	80.00	20.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	R	25.6%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians	L	21.2%	5.6	10.2	8.9	94	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	25.5%	5.1	5.5	5.4	86	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	L	30.7%	6.2	5.8	6.0	104	deep	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	28.7%	5.4	4.7	4.9	91	normal	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Randy Vásquez	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	11.9%	3.1	5.6	5.1	52	short	full	16.50	83.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers	R	21.3%	1.4	-	4.9	24	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	R	22.3%	4.9	5.5	5.4	82	short	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Hunter Dobbins	St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees	R	22.3%	5.0	8.4	6.5	84	short	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies	R	22.1%	4.3	5.2	5.0	72	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants	L	26.6%	5.2	5.3	5.3	87	normal	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros	R	25.6%	4.7	5.4	5.2	79	short	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	20.0%	1.7	3.2	3.9	28	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.7 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Ryan Weathers	Ryan Weathers Under	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	17.5	15.0	-2.5	14.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.4	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.49 <= 3 min
Brady Singer	Brady Singer Under	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	15.8	-1.7	9.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
MacKenzie Gore	MacKenzie Gore Under	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Joe Ryan	Joe Ryan Under	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Under	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	18.1	-0.4	2.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Jesús Luzardo	Jesús Luzardo Under	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	18.1	-0.4	2.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Over	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Over	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	18.5	18.4	-0.1	0.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

233 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Ildemaro Vargas	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.75	1.44	0.63	0.69	2.42 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.74	1.20	0.76	0.77	2.65 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Elly De La Cruz	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.73	1.21	0.91	0.62	2.41 / Over	0.30	season_games=92,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Matt Olson	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.72	1.11	0.82	0.80	2.65 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Francisco Alvarez	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	2.60	1.46	0.54	0.60	2.54 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Eddy Alvarez	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	2.60	1.47	0.54	0.59	2.54 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Sal Stewart	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.59	1.04	0.70	0.85	2.31 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
James Wood	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.58	0.99	0.93	0.67	2.32 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Pete Alonso	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.58	1.07	0.80	0.71	2.83 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ben Rice	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.55	1.05	0.81	0.69	2.26 / Over	0.30	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.53	0.94	0.79	0.80	2.42 / Over	0.30	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.50	1.03	0.66	0.80	2.00 / Over	0.40	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Michael Harris II	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.49	1.14	0.59	0.76	2.44 / Over	0.30	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ceddanne Rafaela	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.49	1.22	0.69	0.58	2.21 / Over	0.30	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Nicky Lopez	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.46	1.42	0.52	0.52	2.53 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.46	1.30	0.66	0.50	2.53 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Willson Contreras	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.45	1.02	0.61	0.82	2.25 / Over	0.30	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Hunter Goodman	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	Over 1.5	2.44	0.95	0.74	0.75	2.24 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Arraez	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.43	1.34	0.57	0.51	2.14 / Over	0.30	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ozzie Albies	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.43	1.05	0.69	0.69	2.36 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.42	1.03	0.90	0.50	2.23 / Over	0.30	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Dylan Beavers	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.40	1.30	0.59	0.51	1.98 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Josh Bell	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.38	0.96	0.61	0.81	1.94 / Over	0.30	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.37	0.97	0.91	0.48	2.28 / Over	0.30	season_games=93,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Seiya Suzuki	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.37	1.00	0.68	0.68	2.14 / Over	0.35	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 6 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes