MLB Bets 2026-08-03

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	854W–416L–0P	67%	-45.24 u	Last 14 days • 1270 settled
Grade A	26W–31L–0P	46%	-10.99 u
Grade B	828W–383L–0P	68%	-32.25 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2969W–1920L–8P	61%	-177.35 u	All-time • 4897 settled
Grade A	242W–188L–0P	56%	-6.36 u
Grade B	2727W–1730L–8P	61%	-168.99 u

120 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter H+R+RBI	Ben Rice	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter H+R+RBI	Shohei Ohtani	1.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter H+R+RBI	Yainer Diaz	1.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Hits	Cedric Mullins	1.5	-228	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Hits	Kyle Karros	1.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Hits	Ty France	1.5	-259	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Total Bases	Yordan Alvarez	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-337	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Andres Gimenez	0.5	-317	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Andy Pages	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Austin Wynns	0.5	-576	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Ben Rice	0.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Brady House	0.5	-483	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Brandon Nimmo	0.5	-302	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Bryson Stott	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	CJ Abrams	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-224	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Christian Walker	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-329	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Corey Seager	0.5	-192	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Derek Hill	0.5	-317	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Dylan Crews	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Edmundo Sosa	0.5	-365	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-301	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Evan Carter	0.5	-242	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	-509	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.5	-299	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Freddie Freeman	0.5	-307	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Garrett Stubbs	0.5	-295	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-294	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Ivan Herrera	0.5	-335	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	JJ Wetherholt	0.5	-273	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Jackson Merrill	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	James Wood	0.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Jasson Domínguez	0.5	-417	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-700	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Joc Pederson	0.5	-262	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Jorbit Vivas	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-468	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-433	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Jose Tena	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-499	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber	0.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Masyn Winn	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Mickey Moniak	0.5	-445	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Mookie Betts	0.5	-294	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Nasim Nunez	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Nathan Church	0.5	-680	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Richie Palacios	0.5	-266	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Spencer Jones	0.5	-327	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Taylor Walls	0.5	-181	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Tommy Edman	0.5	-477	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Willi Castro	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford	0.5	-242	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Yordan Alvarez	0.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	K Prop	Ian Seymour	4.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Earned Run	Brandon Sproat	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Earned Run	Cal Quantrill	1.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Earned Run	Cam Schlittler	1.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Earned Run	Cristian Javier	2.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Earned Run	Ian Seymour	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Walks	Aaron Nola	1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Alvarez	1.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Walks	Brandon Sproat	1.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Walks	Cal Quantrill	1.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Pitcher Walks	Shane Bieber	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-02	K Prop	Cade Cavalli	4.5	-149	-	LOSS	-1.000	Cade Cavalli: 3.0 (line 4.5)
2026-08-02	K Prop	Zack Wheeler	7.5	-127	-	LOSS	-1.000	Zack Wheeler: 3.0 (line 7.5)
2026-08-02	K Prop	Griffin Jax	5.5	-144	-	WIN	+0.694	Griffin Jax: 8.0 (line 5.5)
2026-08-02	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan	5.5	-143	-	LOSS	-1.000	Emmet Sheehan: 4.0 (line 5.5)
2026-08-02	K Prop	Gavin Williams	6.5	-134	-	WIN	+0.746	Gavin Williams: 10.0 (line 6.5)
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	James Wood	0.5	-178	-	LOSS	-1.000	James Wood: 0.0 (line 0.5)
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood	1.5	-123	-	LOSS	-1.000	James Wood: 1.0 (line 1.5)
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-124	-	LOSS	-1.000	CJ Abrams: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-139	-	LOSS	-1.000	Drake Baldwin: 0.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	504	56%	-12.28u	68	49%	-10.41u	236	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	447	57%	+3.47u	62	45%	-13.31u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	157	57%	+1.95u	19	74%	+5.04u	43	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1408	74%	-16.92u	781	75%	-7.86u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	488	57%	-17.11u	106	51%	-13.65u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	353	61%	-7.66u	81	64%	+3.42u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	46	74%	+1.84u	9	56%	-2.06u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	33	55%	+0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	1
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	1
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	114	47%	-12.69u	6	83%	+2.43u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	23	52%	-2.09u	22	55%	-1.09u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	556	52%	-53.37u	72	60%	+3.31u	83	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 17 total candidate(s); season N 504, 14d N 68	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 447, 14d N 62	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 157, 14d N 19	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 16 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 16/16 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 2 actionable / 16 total candidate(s); season N 46, 14d N 9	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 157 total candidate(s); season N 33, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 114, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 23, 14d N 22	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 2 actionable / 126 total candidate(s); season N 556, 14d N 72	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 126 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 776 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 222 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 753 pitcher(s), 3339 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 569 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 16 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 16 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 6 team(s), 54 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 16 roster team(s), 207 hitter(s) \| 16 SP matchup(s), 914 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 54 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 5 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 16 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Toronto Blue Jays, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 16 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Houston Astros
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 16 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 333 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 8/8 game(s) with pitching props \| K 17 line(s)/8 game(s); Outs 17 line(s)/8 game(s); Hits Allowed 17 line(s)/8 game(s); Walks 16 line(s)/8 game(s); Earned Runs 16 line(s)/8 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 80, bovada_direct 3
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 1774 market side(s) checked \| 1774 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 8 game(s) fetched \| 8 with ML odds \| 8 with total odds \| 5 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 126 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 8 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 5 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 611 \| batter bats 278 \| batter hand splits 150 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 569 \| bullpen HR 30
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 139 batter(s) scored \| 8 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+130	-157	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+182	-224	1.5 (-114)	-1.5 (-105)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+124	-150	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-126	+105	-1.5 (+130)	1.5 (-157)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+104	-125	1.5 (-207)	-1.5 (+169)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	+113	-136	1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-185	+152	-1.5 (-121)	1.5 (+101)	O/U 11.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+157)	1.5 (-191)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 68 Grade B | 588 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	👀 Watch Signal Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber Over	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.8	-125	theScore Bet Over 0.5 -125 \| best price	58.8%	✓✓✓–✓✓	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR over-rate: L10 30% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note	Batter H+R+RBI	Ben Rice Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	2.7	-136	DK Over 1.5 -136 \| exact	79.8%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note	Batter H+R+RBI	Shohei Ohtani Over	DOD@CUB	8:06 PM	1.5	2.5	-128	BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 \| best price	67.4%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (10 play(s))

K Prop - Logan Webb Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.88

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 +106Market line: majority 6 | avg N/ARecommended: BetOnline Under 6 -105 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 6 / avg N/A

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -140Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

Batter Hits - Jackson Merrill Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Bryan Reynolds Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Kazuma Okamoto Over

Projection: 1.7Displayed: Over 0.5 -160Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Nick Gonzales Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Hunter Feduccia Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Myles Straw Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

F5 Total - Over 4.5

Projection: -Displayed: Over 4.5 +108Market line: majority 4 | avg N/ARecommended: BetOnline Over 4 -115 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 4 / avg N/A

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-125) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 0.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-125	-110	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-125	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/106 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/52 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 57/106 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.65
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-136) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-155	+112	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.406 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 54/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.33
A-tier gate: strong consensus 75%

⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 30% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note

⚠ HRR trust gate: L10 HRR over-rate 30%, raw gap 1.2 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-128) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.390, xSLG 0.471 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 18 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .653
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/102 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 58/102 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.46
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note

⚠ HRR trust gate: L10 HRR over-rate 40%, raw gap 1.0 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (68 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Ian Seymour Over 4.5 (-146) diff 116.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-149	+115	-
BetRivers	4.5	-150	+112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-146	+114	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	-
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 116.1% vs 17% min; cushion +5.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Ian Seymour: K/9 11.1, proj 9.7K over 7.2 IP (season 11.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.2% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 24.0%, L7 26.2%, season 22.8%, active roster 21.8%/8 hitters (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 26.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 5/36 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +3.20 vs season
K% trend: support +4.4 ppts (recent 32.3% vs season 27.9%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 105 vs LHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -146 -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 5.22K, diff 116.1%, books 86%)

⚠ ⚠ High K diff 116% (≥90%) — verify K projection

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael King Under 5.5 (-143) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-170	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+107	-143	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.74 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.16, BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .183 | OPS .535
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 16.9%, L7 17.6%, season 19.3%, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

▸ Pitcher Walks — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Andrew Alvarez Over 1.5 (-158) diff 82.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-158	+119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.743708564225954 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 82.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.8 IP (BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 8.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.8%, L7 19.8%, season 23.6%, top-6 23.3% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.6%, L7 10.5%, season 7.9% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.3% (6/6); lineup K% 23.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brandon Sproat Over 1.5 (-187) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-187	+140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.394536096218472 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 4.7 IP (BB% 11.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Sproat: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .222 | OPS 1.017
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.7%, L7 20.7%, season 24.0% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.2%, L7 7.6%, season 9.2% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Shane Bieber Over 1.5 (-186) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-186	+139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.0566185409221465 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.9% / under 39.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 78 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 2.6% | AVG .408 | OPS 1.134
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.4%/78 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.3%, L7 10.9%, season 8.8%, BVP 2.6%/78 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.57 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/7 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-186) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Cal Quantrill Over 1.5 (-132) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-132	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8569900086501026 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 6.6 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.6 IP (HIGH; season 9.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 7.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: 0.88x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 77 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .288 | OPS .818
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.2%, L7 17.6%, season 20.9%, BVP 19.5%/77 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 6.7%, L7 8.6%, season 6.9%, BVP 3.9%/77 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 4/22 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Aaron Nola Over 1.5 (-143) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8029969343712264 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.2 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 119 PA | K% 27.7% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .252 | OPS .675
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.1%, L7 20.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 27.7%/119 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.2%, L7 12.4%, season 9.2%, BVP 3.4%/119 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cal Quantrill Over 1.5 (-175) diff 113.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-175	+131	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 113.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.30 over 6.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.22)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.6 IP (HIGH; season 9.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 7.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 77 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .288 | OPS .818
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.2%, L7 17.6%, season 20.9%, BVP 19.5%/77 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Sproat Over 1.5 (-163) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-163	+123	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.57 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.0% / under 42.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Sproat: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .222 | OPS 1.017
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.7%, L7 20.7%, season 24.0% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Over 1.5 (-139) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-139	+105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.10 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.03)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.5%, L7 18.9%, season 20.3%, top-6 18.6% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.6% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/23 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristian Javier Under 2.5 (-153) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+115	-153	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.62 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 2.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 9.0% | AVG .190 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 18.6%, L7 15.8%, season 19.4%, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.12 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Hits — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-228) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -228

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Recommended
DK	1.5	+169	-228	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.68 (AVG 0.201)
Base projection 0.68 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 7/33 (21%) | L5 2/14 (14%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/50 under 1.5 (94%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Hits: 38/46 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Hits: 85/96 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.68

⚠ Recent form: L10 21% + L5 14% (both cold) — risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-228); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-265) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+170	-235	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+195	-265	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.81 (AVG 0.268)
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.341 (28 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/31 (36%) | L5 6/16 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/104 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/50 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.82 | Away Batter Hits: 43/54 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Hits: 85/104 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.81

⚠ Heavy juice (-265); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 55 play(s) (B 55)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-317) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+220	-317	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.10
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/106 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter Walks: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 96/106 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-317) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-400) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/102 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 86/102 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-301) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -301

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+210	-301	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-301) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-509) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -509 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -509

Selected market: Over 21.5% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -509 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+338	-509	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.267 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/103 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 81/103 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-509) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-505) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -505

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+335	-505	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/109 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 89/109 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-505) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-434) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -434 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -434

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -434 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+293	-434	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/107 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 79/107 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-434); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-443) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -443 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -443

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -443 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+298	-443	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 1 | K% 19.2% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .715
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/109 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 83/109 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-443); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-374) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -374

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+256	-374	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/111 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 87/111 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-374); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-280) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+197	-280	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-280); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-433) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -433

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+292	-433	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-433) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-680) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -680 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -680

Selected market: Over 17.8% / Under 82.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -680 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+431	-680	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-680) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~87%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-700) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.4% / Under 82.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -700 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+441	-700	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-900	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-700) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-192) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -192

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+138	-192	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-192); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-242) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+171	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-242); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-242) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -242 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -242 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+172	-242	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-242); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-262) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -262 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -262 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+185	-262	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-262); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Wynns Under 0.5 (-576) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -576 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -576

Selected market: Over 19.8% / Under 80.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -576 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-576) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-468) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -468

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+313	-468	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/110 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 79/110 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-468); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-302) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -302

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+211	-302	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 24 PA | 3/21 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .583
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/106 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 75/106 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Heavy juice (-302); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-337) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+233	-337	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Heavy juice (-337); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-327) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+227	-327	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-327); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-417) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -417

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+283	-417	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-417); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-400) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+272	-400	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/104 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 31/49 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/104 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-224) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+160	-224	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/96 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 72/96 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-224); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-299) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -299 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -299

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -299 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+209	-299	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.70x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 36 PA | 7/35 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 2.8% | OPS .536
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 36 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 71/110 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41

⚠ Heavy juice (-299); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-257) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	-
DK	0.5	+182	-257	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/104 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 71/104 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Heavy juice (-257); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-400) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+272	-400	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/111 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 77/111 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-244) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -244

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+173	-244	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 26 PA | 6/24 | HR 1 | K% 11.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .683
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/109 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 76/109 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39

⚠ Heavy juice (-244); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — LaMonte Wade Jr. Under 0.5 (-257) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+182	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-257) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-290) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -290 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -290 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+203	-290	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/107 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 80/107 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-290); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-181) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -181

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+131	-181	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-181); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-266) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+188	-266	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-266); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-208) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -208 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -208

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -208 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+149	-208	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-208); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-329) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+228	-329	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-329); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-445) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -445

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-445); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-294) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+205	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-294); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-477) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -477 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -477

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -477 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+319	-477	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-477); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-352) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -352

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+243	-352	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-352); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-376) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -376

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+258	-376	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-376); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-499) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -499 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -499

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -499 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+332	-499	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-499); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-337) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-337); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-483) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -483 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -483

Selected market: Over 22.2% / Under 77.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -483 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-483); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-218) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -218 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -218 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+156	-218	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/109 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 82/109 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-218); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (-130) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-130	-106	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .481
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/113 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/57 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter Walks: 32/56 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Walks: 62/113 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-307) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -307

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+214	-307	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .220
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 70/109 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46

⚠ Heavy juice (-307); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-353) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -353

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+243	-353	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/104 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 73/104 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Heavy juice (-353); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-322) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+224	-322	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/95 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 69/95 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-322); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-335) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+232	-335	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 72/111 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.46

⚠ Heavy juice (-335); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-273) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+192	-273	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 27/51 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 66/106 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Heavy juice (-273); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-252) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -252

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+173	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+178	-252	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-252) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 (-295) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+207	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-295) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 (-365) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -365 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -365

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -365 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+251	-365	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-365) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Derek Hill Under 0.5 (-317) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+220	-317	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-317) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-294) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 71/102 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-294); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-168) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+121	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/107 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 70/107 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.50

⚠ Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (588 signal(s))

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 12 play(s) (A 1 | B 1 | C 10)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-102) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-131	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 22.9% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.35 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 6.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 45 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.092
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 17.5%, L7 22.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 13.3%/45 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Aaron Nola Over 2.5 (-122) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-122	-108	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.61 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.20)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.4% / under 48.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 119 PA | K% 27.7% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .252 | OPS .675
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.1%, L7 20.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 27.7%/119 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ian Seymour Over 2.5 (-110) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-110	-121	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.13 over 7.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.75)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 7.2 IP (HIGH; season 11.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 8.5 IP; outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.0%, L7 26.2%, season 22.8% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 7/36 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Alvarez Over 2.5 (-102) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	-
DK	2.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.45 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.61)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 8.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.8%, L7 19.8%, season 23.6%, top-6 23.3% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.3% (6/6); lineup K% 23.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/15 (27%) | Season 4/15 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Over 2.5 (-112) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.37 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Webb: 79 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .222 | OPS .629
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.8%, L7 29.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 13.9%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Bieber Over 2.5 (-146) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-146	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.12 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 78 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 2.6% | AVG .408 | OPS 1.134
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.4%/78 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.86 | Season Avg 2.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/7 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Pfaadt Over 2.5 (-113) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-113	-117	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.84 over 6.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.29)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.5 IP (HIGH; season 8.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 7.3 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 194 PA | K% 26.8% | BB% 4.6% | AVG .242 | OPS .650
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.3%, L7 20.2%, season 22.2%, BVP 26.8%/194 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 4/19 (21%) | Season 4/19 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 0/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Justin Wrobleski Over 2.5 (+108) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.82 over 6.3 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 32 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .148 | OPS .466
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.6%, L7 21.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 21.9%/32 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bubba Chandler Under 2.5 (-134) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+101	-134	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.34 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.77)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bubba Chandler: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .478 | OPS 1.104
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.8%, L7 18.0%, season 21.0%, top-6 22.0%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Under 2.5 (-133) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.78 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.91)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 101 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .194 | OPS .602
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.2%, L7 20.6%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 22.8%/101 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Under 2.5 (-119) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	-
DK	2.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .183 | OPS .535
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 16.9%, L7 17.6%, season 19.3%, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Under 2.5 (-106) Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-125	-106	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.58 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.0%, L7 25.6%, season 24.4%, top-6 22.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 89 play(s) (A 5 | B 9 | C 75)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-417) diff 63.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -417

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+283	-417	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/104 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 36/47 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 85/104 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-417); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-428) diff 62.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -428 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -428

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -428 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+290	-428	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/97 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 80/97 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-428); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-513) diff 58.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -513 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -513

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -513 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+340	-513	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/103 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 83/103 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-513); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-241) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -241 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -241

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -241 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+171	-241	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-241); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Tyler Freeman Under 0.5 (-397) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -397 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -397

Selected market: Over 25.2% / Under 74.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -397 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+271	-397	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .220
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 70/109 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-397); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-171) diff 89.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -171

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
DK	0.5	-171	+123	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.95 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 1.37x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.482
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 56/111 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.69

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-171) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (-102) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -102

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	-
DK	0.5	-102	-135	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/105 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 47/105 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.58

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+125) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+125	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/112 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/55 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 54/112 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-201) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -201 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -201 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+144	-201	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/106 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 75/106 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-397) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -397 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -397

Selected market: Over 25.2% / Under 74.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -397 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+271	-397	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 70/109 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-250) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+177	-250	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 71/107 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-240) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+170	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/50 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 64/104 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-176) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -176 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+127	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/108 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 30/52 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 67/108 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryan De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-286) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+200	-286	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/92 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/47 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 55/92 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+118) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	-
DK	0.5	+118	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/113 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 21/56 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 52/113 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-650) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 80/110 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 80/110 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-280) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/107 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 79/107 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-114) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-114	-121	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Michael King: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/108 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/51 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 49/108 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-316) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+220	-316	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-333) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -333

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+231	-333	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-341) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+236	-341	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-504) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -480 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -504

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -480 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+334	-504	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 73/107 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-178) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+128	-178	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Michael King: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/107 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 76/107 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-375) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-280) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-180) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-330) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-335) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+232	-335	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 16 PA | 1/15 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .392
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/105 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-222) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+148	-200	-
DK	0.5	+158	-222	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-240) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+170	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-258) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+182	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-318) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -318

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+221	-318	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-332) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-342) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -342

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	-
DK	0.5	+236	-342	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-106) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -106

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	-
DK	0.5	-106	-130	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 41/101 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/51 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 24/50 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 41/101 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+273	-400	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Enrique Hernandez Under 0.5 (-516) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -516

Selected market: Over 21.3% / Under 78.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+341	-516	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eliezer Alfonzo Under 0.5 (-555) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -555 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -555

Selected market: Over 20.3% / Under 79.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -555 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-223) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+159	-223	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/102 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-368) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+252	-368	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.70x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 34.8% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .490
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/106 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 29/54 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 67/106 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 (-107) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -107

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	-
DK	0.5	-107	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Michael King: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/108 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/51 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 23/57 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 46/108 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.51

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Adrian Del Castillo Under 0.5 (-297) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+208	-297	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-260) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+183	-260	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-368) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+253	-368	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-237) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+167	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+168	-237	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-258) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+182	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sung-Mun Song Under 0.5 (-365) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -365 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -365

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -365 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-422) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+286	-422	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-456) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -456 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -456

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -456 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+306	-456	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-350) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-417) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -417

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+283	-417	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/107 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 86/107 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-165) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 15 PA | 7/14 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS 1.462
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 70/112 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-291) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -291

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+204	-291	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/111 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 82/111 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-183) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -183

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	-
DK	0.5	+131	-183	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-205) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+146	-205	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-255) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	-
DK	0.5	+180	-255	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-412) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -412 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -412

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -412 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+280	-412	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-443) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -443 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -443

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -443 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+298	-443	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-200) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-298) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -298

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+208	-298	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 7 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/55 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 62/109 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-281) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+178	-245	-
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/95 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/47 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 58/95 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-212) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -212

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+151	-212	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/92 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/38 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 55/92 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-358) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+247	-358	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-600) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-700) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-425) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.5% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-350) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+241	-350	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 69/112 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-251) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+178	-251	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 7.7% | OPS 1.205
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 62/88 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/44 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 62/88 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-230) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+163	-230	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Michael King: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .929 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/106 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/106 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Over 0.5 (+124) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+130	-176	-
DK	0.5	+124	-171	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.181
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/85 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/39 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 16/46 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 33/85 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 (+130) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+130	-180	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.38x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/106 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/54 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 17/52 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 35/106 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-329) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+228	-329	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/53 under 0.5 (45%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 55/108 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-220) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+157	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/109 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 75/109 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-177) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+127	-177	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 66/106 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-385) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+263	-385	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 56/77 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/38 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 56/77 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-282) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -282

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+198	-282	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 27 PA | 8/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .991
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 68/109 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-418) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -418 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -418

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -418 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+283	-418	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 71/107 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (+131) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+131	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/100 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/51 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 20/49 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 38/100 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Over 0.5 (-112) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -112

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-112	-123	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/81 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/48 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 11/33 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 29/81 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-291) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -291

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+204	-291	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 62/105 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-356) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -356

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+245	-356	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/55 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 30/56 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 58/111 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-221) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -221

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+158	-221	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 18 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .653
BVP walk adjustment: 0.86x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/102 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/49 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 27/53 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 52/102 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 (+157) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +157

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+157	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 35/104 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/55 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 17/49 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 35/104 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (+111) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +111

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+111	-153	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.7% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 (+171) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+171	-241	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.7% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (+189) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +189 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +189

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +189 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	-
DK	0.5	+189	-268	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.7% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (+251) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +251 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +251

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +251 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+251	-365	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.7% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 27.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-231) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -231

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+164	-231	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/103 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 72/103 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+150) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+150	-210	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/111 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/59 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 18/52 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 43/111 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ K Prop — 16 play(s) (B 5 | C 11)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Pfaadt Over 3.5 (-156) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 3.93 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+116	Recommended
DK	3.5	-156	+122	Selected
theScore Bet	3.5	+270	-500	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	4.5	+128	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
FanDuel	4.5	+136	-174	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 51.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.79K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.50
Brandon Pfaadt: K/9 5.9, proj 5.3K over 6.7 IP (season 8.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.6% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 194 PA | K% 26.8% | BB% 4.6% | AVG .242 | OPS .650
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 194 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.3%, L7 20.2%, season 22.2%, BVP 26.8%/194 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/19 (26%) | Season 5/19 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.4% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Alvarez Over 4.5 (+101) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+106	-137	-
BetRivers	4.5	+120	-159	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+101	-129	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 37.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.67K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Andrew Alvarez: K/9 8.4, proj 6.2K over 5.9 IP (season 8.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Manny Gonzalez — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.8%, L7 19.8%, season 23.6%, top-6 23.3% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Philadelphia Phillies 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.4%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 84%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.3% (6/6); lineup K% 23.3% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.87
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
K% trend: headwind -6.2 ppts (recent 16.8% vs season 23.0%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.8% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-174) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+320	-600	-
BetMGM	3.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	+130	-169	-
BetRivers	3.5	+128	-175	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+130	-170	-
DK	3.5	+136	-174	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+132	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 21.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.75K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.0% / under 60.0%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael Lorenzen: K/9 6.4, proj 2.8K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.1% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 25.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 45 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.092
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 17.5%, L7 22.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 13.3%/45 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.48
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Cristian Javier Over 3.5 (-154) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -154

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 4.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	-
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+120	-
BetRivers	3.5	-141	+106	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	Recommended
DK	3.5	-154	+120	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	-
BetMGM	4.5	+155	-210	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 18.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.2% / under 42.8%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cristian Javier: K/9 10.0, proj 4.1K over 4.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 2.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.359 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 9.0% | AVG .190 | OPS .614
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 18.6%, L7 15.8%, season 19.4%, active roster 18.3%/6 hitters, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.4%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 15.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/8 (38%) | L20 3/8 (38%) | Season 3/8 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.62 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: K L10: 3/8 over 3.5
K% trend: support +11.3 ppts (recent 32.1% vs season 20.8%, proj adj +5.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (-159) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/7 OVER | avg line 4.88 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-169	+130	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	4.5	-157	+118	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	4.5	-158	+124	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+124	-159	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 16.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.91K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.1% / under 57.9%); own-line consensus 4/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.71
Logan Webb: K/9 6.5, proj 4.6K over 6.0 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.2% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dan Iassogna — 9.1 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.04x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Webb: 79 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .222 | OPS .629
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 79 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.8%, L7 29.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 13.9%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.5 ppts (recent 13.6% vs season 19.1%, proj adj -2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 (-138) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.7% / Under 45.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-145	+112	-
BetRivers	4.5	-137	+104	Recommended
DK	4.5	-138	+108	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-142	+112	-
Fanatics	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.95K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.7% / under 45.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Matthew Boyd: K/9 7.6, proj 5.5K over 5.9 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Slider (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Segal — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 101 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .194 | OPS .602
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 101 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.2%, L7 20.6%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 22.8%/101 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Bieber Under 4.5 (-162) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 4.25 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 3.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	-150	+112	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	-
BetMGM	4.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	4.5	+130	-169	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+127	-162	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	-
Fanatics	4.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.76K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.6% / under 58.4%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Shane Bieber: K/9 7.4, proj 3.7K over 4.9 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 13.7% | xwOBA 0.406 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 78 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 2.6% | AVG .408 | OPS 1.134
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 20.4%, L7 22.2%, season 21.6%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 15.4%/78 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.14 | Season Avg 3.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/7 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cal Quantrill Over 3.5 (-125) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-120	-108	Recommended
DK	3.5	-125	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 16.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 1/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cal Quantrill: K/9 6.2, proj 4.1K over 6.7 IP (season 9.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.6% | put-away% 13.9% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dan Iassogna — 9.1 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.04x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 77 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .288 | OPS .818
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.2%, L7 17.6%, season 20.9%, BVP 19.5%/77 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 3/22 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Aaron Nola Over 5.5 (+112) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	5.5	+106	-137	-
BetRivers	5.5	+110	-148	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-128	-
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.71K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Aaron Nola: K/9 9.2, proj 6.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Manny Gonzalez — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Curveball: 36.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 119 PA | K% 27.7% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .252 | OPS .675
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 119 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.1%, L7 20.7%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.4%/6 hitters, BVP 27.7%/119 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Washington Nationals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.6%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 67%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael McGreevy Under 4.5 (-149) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -149

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 4.25 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-175	+130	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+270	-500	-
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	-
BetRivers	4.5	+120	-162	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+117	-149	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-160	-
Fanatics	4.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.5% / under 56.5%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.2, proj 4.0K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.8% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.361 | top pitch: Curveball (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Andy Fletcher — 8.2 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.98x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 36.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.0%, L7 25.6%, season 24.4%, top-6 22.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.62
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 (+102) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	-
BetOnline	5.5	-125	-103	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.57K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Justin Wrobleski: K/9 8.0, proj 4.9K over 6.5 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.7% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Segal — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 19.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 32 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .148 | OPS .466
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.6%, L7 21.7%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 21.9%/32 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.17 vs season
K% trend: support +8.4 ppts (recent 27.8% vs season 19.4%, proj adj +4.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Sproat Under 5.5 (-122) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-105	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-132	-
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.50K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.2% / under 51.8%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Brandon Sproat: K/9 9.3, proj 5.0K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: James Hoye — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Curveball: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Sproat: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .222 | OPS 1.017
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.7%, L7 20.7%, season 24.0% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matt Boyd Over 4.5 (-145) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.4% / under 44.6%)
Matt Boyd: K/9 8.2, proj 4.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Umpire: Chris Segal — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, L7 20.6%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.7% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 (-132) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	4.5	-145	+111	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-132	+103	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.6% / under 46.4%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Bubba Chandler: K/9 7.8, proj 4.8K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 15.9% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: James Hoye — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bubba Chandler: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .478 | OPS 1.104
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.8%, L7 18.0%, season 21.0%, top-6 22.0%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.0% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.43
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael King Over 4.5 (-103) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	4.5	+105	-135	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-104	-129	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	-103	-124	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Michael King: K/9 7.9, proj 4.6K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .183 | OPS .535
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.9%, L7 17.6%, season 19.3%, active roster 16.0%/6 hitters, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 16.6%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 16.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.95
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cam Schlittler Under 6.5 (+116) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 7.5 -161 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 6.64 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 7.5 -161 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 6.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-150	+110	-
BetRivers	6.5	-148	+110	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	6.5	-148	+116	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-154	+120	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+225	-375	-
BetOnline	7.5	+124	-161	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 0.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta -0.17
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.3, proj 6.5K over 6.1 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.2% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.265 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Andy Fletcher — 8.2 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.98x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.5%, L7 18.9%, season 20.3%, top-6 18.6% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.6% (5/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.10 | Season Avg 7.17
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 33.9% vs season 30.7%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 10 play(s) (B 1 | C 9)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Lorenzen Over 6.5 (-129) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	6.5	-135	-105	-
DK	6.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	6.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 7.4 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 13.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.51 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.85, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 45 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.092
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 17.5%, L7 22.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 13.3%/45 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (-117) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.83 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 101 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .194 | OPS .602
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.2%, L7 20.6%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 22.8%/101 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Bieber Under 5.5 (-138) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 78 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 2.6% | AVG .408 | OPS 1.134
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.4%/78 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.71 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/7 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Pfaadt Over 5.5 (-159) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	-159	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 6.5 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.5 IP (HIGH; season 8.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 7.3 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 194 PA | K% 26.8% | BB% 4.6% | AVG .242 | OPS .650
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.3%, L7 20.2%, season 22.2%, BVP 26.8%/194 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/19 (32%) | Season 6/19 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Under 5.5 (-121) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.0%, L7 25.6%, season 24.4%, top-6 22.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Aaron Nola Over 5.5 (+110) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 119 PA | K% 27.7% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .252 | OPS .675
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.1%, L7 20.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 27.7%/119 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 (-114) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.83 over 6.3 IP (WHIP 1.03, BB% 4.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 32 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .148 | OPS .466
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.6%, L7 21.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 21.9%/32 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (+103) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +103

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-145	+105	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-136	+103	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Webb: 79 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .222 | OPS .629
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.8%, L7 29.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 13.9%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ian Seymour Over 5.5 (+106) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+106	-140	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.80 over 7.2 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 8.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 7.2 IP (HIGH; season 11.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 8.5 IP; outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.4% / under 54.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.0%, L7 26.2%, season 22.8% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 2/36 (6%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matt Boyd Under 5.5 (-125) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.5 IP/GS; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, L7 20.6%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.7% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 11 play(s) (B 1 | C 10)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Michael Lorenzen Under 1.5 (+130) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-173	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4322340250412127 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.5 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 45 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.092
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 17.5%, L7 22.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 13.3%/45 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 9.1%, L7 3.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 11.1%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ian Seymour Over 1.5 (+162) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +162

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+162	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.565563923134769 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 7.2 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 7.2 IP (HIGH; season 11.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 8.5 IP; outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 35.8% / under 64.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.0%, L7 26.2%, season 22.8% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.7%, L7 7.3%, season 8.2% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/36 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Brandon Pfaadt Over 1.5 (+129) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+129	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0177088753089367 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 6.5 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.5 IP (HIGH; season 8.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 7.3 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.9% / under 59.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 194 PA | K% 26.8% | BB% 4.6% | AVG .242 | OPS .650
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.3%, L7 20.2%, season 22.2%, BVP 26.8%/194 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 10.1%, L7 8.4%, season 9.2%, BVP 4.6%/194 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (-171) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.183428401217305 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.21 over 5.8 IP (BB% 4.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.5%, L7 18.9%, season 20.3%, top-6 18.6% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.4%, L7 7.9%, season 8.5% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.6% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bubba Chandler Over 2.5 (+135) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.013058229395671 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.53 over 4.9 IP (BB% 12.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.8% / under 60.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.16x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bubba Chandler: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .478 | OPS 1.104
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.8%, L7 18.0%, season 21.0%, top-6 22.0%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 10.9%, L7 11.7%, season 10.7%, BVP 11.5%/26 PA (adj 1.16x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 (+114) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.691013752738224 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 101 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .194 | OPS .602
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.2%, L7 20.6%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 22.8%/101 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 10.2%, L7 6.5%, season 10.0%, BVP 5.0%/101 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Webb Under 1.5 (-107) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.3816720324074612 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Webb: 79 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .222 | OPS .629
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.8%, L7 29.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 13.9%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.0%, L7 8.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 3.8%/79 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cristian Javier Over 1.5 (-112) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5906663315454195 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 4.0 IP (BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 2.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 9.0% | AVG .190 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 18.6%, L7 15.8%, season 19.4%, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 7.0%, L7 7.7%, season 7.3%, BVP 9.0%/67 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.88 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/8 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael McGreevy Under 1.5 (-113) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4443024496120354 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.0%, L7 25.6%, season 24.4%, top-6 22.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 13.5%, L7 7.4%, season 9.7%, BVP 0.0%/15 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael King Under 2.5 (-135) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.437249320961469 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 5.5 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .183 | OPS .535
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 16.9%, L7 17.6%, season 19.3%, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 10.5%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 10.4%/67 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Justin Wrobleski Under 1.5 (-171) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4841527075961471 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.20 over 6.3 IP (BB% 4.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 32 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .148 | OPS .466
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.6%, L7 21.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 21.9%/32 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 10.6%, L7 9.9%, season 10.9%, BVP 12.5%/32 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 14 play(s) (B 4 | C 10)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 1.5 (-222) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -222

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-303	+220	-
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
DK	1.5	+165	-222	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-223) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+166	-223	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.289)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.218 (43 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/47 (19%) | L5 4/23 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/97 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter Hits: 39/49 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 69/97 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-215) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Recommended
DK	1.5	+160	-215	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.250)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.231 (73 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 8/21 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/109 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 81/109 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-111) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+360	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.301)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 73/107 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ty France Under 1.5 (-259) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	-
BetMGM	1.5	+195	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+191	-259	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-219) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -219 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -219

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -219 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
DK	1.5	+163	-219	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Cole Carrigg Under 1.5 (-264) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -264

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+194	-264	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-257) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +195; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+190	-257	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.237)
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.289 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 1 | K% 19.2% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .715
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/35 (37%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/109 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter Hits: 81/109 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-303) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -303

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+221	-303	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 (-156) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-500	+320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.267 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/43 (21%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 77/108 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-194) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	1.5	+160	-215	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.441 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 36 PA | 7/35 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 2.8% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 36 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/110 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 79/110 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-156) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-500	+320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.296)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.253 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 12/33 (36%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 70/104 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-148) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	Recommended
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-500	+320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.313 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 7/36 (19%) | L5 3/15 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 80/111 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (+162) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +162

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+162	-218	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.20 (AVG 0.330)
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.38x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.542 (41 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.482
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/35 (37%) | L5 9/19 (47%)
Prop history (batter_hits Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/111 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter Hits: 16/55 over 1.5 (29%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 40/111 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 124 play(s) (B 27 | C 97)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (-121) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.445 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/107 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 62/107 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-128) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.456 (62 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/105 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 63/105 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-138) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.55
Base projection 2.55 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.370 (53 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .481
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/113 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.82 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 62/113 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-112) diff 63.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.272 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-129) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.49
Base projection 2.49 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.315 (53 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 26 PA | 6/24 | HR 1 | K% 11.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .683
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/109 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.60 | Day Batter HRR: 64/109 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-129) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+100	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.379 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/77 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 26/39 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 46/77 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-117) diff 60.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.399 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/111 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 59/111 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-137) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.452, xSLG 0.622 (71 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/112 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 58/112 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-147) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-147	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.442 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/106 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 48/106 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-120) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/109 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 60/109 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-124) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.432 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-121) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.351 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/103 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 56/103 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-124) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.528 (42 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Under 2.5 (-132) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-140	-
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	2.5	+104	-139	-
DK	2.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.61 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.442 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/96 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/50 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 35/46 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter HRR: 73/96 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 2.5 (-146) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+106	-141	-
DK	2.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.65 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-123) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.307 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 40/92 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 40/92 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Under 2.5 (-135) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	2.5	-103	-130	-
DK	2.5	+101	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.276 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/104 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/57 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 33/47 under 2.5 (70%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 75/104 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-117) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.452 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 24 PA | 3/21 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-154) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.352 (28 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/103 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 70/103 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-149) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-149	+112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.357 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/107 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 46/107 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (-116) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-121) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Under 2.5 (-152) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	Recommended
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.16 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.278 (73 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.54 | Away Batter HRR: 40/55 under 2.5 (73%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 71/109 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Under 2.5 (-105) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	-125	-107	-
DK	2.5	-127	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.30 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.334 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/108 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 10/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/56 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 34/52 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 66/108 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-117) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-117	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-115) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Under 2.5 (+105) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-150	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	2.5	-139	+105	-
DK	2.5	-140	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.49 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.390 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/111 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/59 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 32/52 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 68/111 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elias Diaz Over 1.5 (+125) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.445 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/107 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 62/107 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.31

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-115) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.372, xSLG 0.478 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 54/104 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 67.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 67.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-134) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.452 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.181
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 50/85 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/39 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 32/46 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 50/85 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-109) diff 58.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.421 (117 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 55/95 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 30/48 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 55/95 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-106) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/92 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/47 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 55/92 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+106) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.468 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/107 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 35/53 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.58 | Day Batter HRR: 62/107 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+101) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.467 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/113 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 64/113 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+115) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
Base projection 2.45 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.496 (117 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/110 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 35/51 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.78 | Day Batter HRR: 67/110 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-106) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.388 (156 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/112 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 63/112 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-118) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.474 (173 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 15 PA | 7/14 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS 1.462
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 59/112 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-112) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.190, xSLG 0.191 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 7.7% | OPS 1.205
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/88 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/44 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 43/88 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-117) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.308 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (-106) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+100	-138	-
DK	2.5	-106	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 3.77 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.65
Base projection 2.65 | production context adj 1.42x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.542, xSLG 0.881 (41 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.482
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/56 over 2.5 (62%), avg 3.07 | Away Batter HRR: 19/55 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 2.5 (49%), avg 2.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+105) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.461 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 48/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+116) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.423, xSLG 0.613 (115 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/111 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.57 | Day Batter HRR: 63/111 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Freeman Over 1.5 (-103) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/109 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 60/109 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-134) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.354 (84 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/107 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/107 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-119) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.407 (129 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/102 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 56/102 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+105) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.178, xSLG 0.158 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-141) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.525 (56 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/108 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 57/108 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Under 2.5 (-164) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+121	-160	-
DK	2.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-115) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.289 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 57/109 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-143) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-143	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.235, xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/102 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 52/102 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+121) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.411, xSLG 0.581 (156 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+110) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.413 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .821
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/98 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 43/98 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-107) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.371 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 43/81 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 43/81 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+106) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.367 (138 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 7 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+106) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.189, xSLG 0.261 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/104 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 44/104 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (+102) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.389 (158 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+114) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.425 (167 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Over 1.5 (+125) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-160) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	Recommended
DK	1.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.279 (43 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/48 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.67 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 49/97 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+102) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.445 (119 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+106) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.294 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/105 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 51/105 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+110) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.381 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-139) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.235 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 27 PA | 8/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .991
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-131) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/55 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 57/109 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+115) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.267 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 52/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-111) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.405 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-141) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.341 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 1 | K% 19.2% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .715
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+106) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.351 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .929 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-112) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.348 (73 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 47/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+106) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Over 1.5 (+105) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.275 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 45/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/56 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 45/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (+117) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.400 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/100 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 47/100 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+131) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.376 (133 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/111 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 53/111 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-108) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 2.5 (-157) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	Recommended
Caesars	2.5	+117	-157	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.17 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.441, xSLG 0.602 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 36 PA | 7/35 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 2.8% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 36 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/55 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 36/55 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 75/110 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 (+117) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (-112) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.210, xSLG 0.258 (61 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 52/95 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/47 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 52/95 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Wells Over 1.5 (+114) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Caballero Over 1.5 (+125) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gavin Sheets Under 1.5 (-137) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.348 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 16 PA | 1/15 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .392
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/105 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter HRR: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 68/105 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+104) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dalton Rushing Over 1.5 (+130) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-165) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.37
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.325 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/55 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter HRR: 69/106 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+100) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (-146) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.463 (28 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.98x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+115) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-117) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (+110) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-114) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (-107) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brady House Over 1.5 (+122) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Tena Over 1.5 (+122) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-108) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (-129) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-145) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (-137) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Feduccia Over 1.5 (-115) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (-111) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 2.5 (-149) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	2.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	2.5	-141	+107	-
DK	2.5	-149	+112	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.63 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.445 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/107 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 16/51 over 2.5 (31%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 43/107 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-126) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.153, xSLG 0.199 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 34.8% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .490
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 60/106 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+117) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-123) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-118) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Koss Over 1.5 (+128) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Evan Carter Over 1.5 (+106) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edmundo Sosa Over 1.5 (+110) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (-120) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Valenzuela Over 1.5 (+105) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jesus Sanchez Over 1.5 (+107) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Over 1.5 (+119) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (-110) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Stubbs Under 1.5 (-178) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-185	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (-110) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-147) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-147	+111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+120) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (+101) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+121) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (-126) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sung-Mun Song Over 1.5 (+106) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+100) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.307 (58 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 47/98 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 47/98 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-187) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.364 (129 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 under 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 50/104 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 157 play(s) (B 6 | C 141 | D 10)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-127) diff 123.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-130	+100	-
DK	1.5	-127	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 3.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 123.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.42x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.881 (41 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.482
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Under 1.5 (-175) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.258 (61 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/95 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/47 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 56/95 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-113) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.442 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/96 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/50 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 71/96 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-159) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	Recommended
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.357 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 72/107 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-114) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 66/104 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-209) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -209

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
DK	1.5	+156	-209	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.405 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 66/106 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (+200) diff 307.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 307.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/107 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 76/107 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.79

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 31.6% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 308% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 283.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 283.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 83/109 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/56 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 39/53 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 83/109 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.92

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 283% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (-185) diff 250.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 250.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.467 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/113 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 76/113 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.65

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 251% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-160) diff 250.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 250.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 250% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-125) diff 250.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 250.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 250% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Caballero Over 0.5 (-160) diff 250.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 250.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 250% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-160) diff 242.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 242.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.158 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/109 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 31/52 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 65/109 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 243% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eliezer Alfonzo Over 0.5 (-155) diff 240.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 240.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 240% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enrique Hernandez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 240.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 240.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 240% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-145) diff 240.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 240.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.461 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/101 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 61/101 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.70

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 240% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Amaya Over 0.5 (-115) diff 231.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 231.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dalton Rushing Over 0.5 (+190) diff 231.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 231.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 32.6% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 (-210) diff 228.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 63.3% / Under 36.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.468 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 73/107 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.54

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Endy Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 225.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 71/102 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 224.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-135) diff 224.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 224.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-135) diff 224.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 (-200) diff 224.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 0.5 (-108) diff 224.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 (+100) diff 224.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jhostynxon Garcia Over 0.5 (-105) diff 224.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (+150) diff 224.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 37.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-140) diff 221.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Tena Over 0.5 (-165) diff 221.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrés Chaparro Over 0.5 (-165) diff 221.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Feduccia Over 0.5 (-190) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edmundo Sosa Over 0.5 (-175) diff 216.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Derek Hill Over 0.5 (-135) diff 216.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Stubbs Over 0.5 (+260) diff 216.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-185) diff 215.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (-140) diff 215.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-115) diff 215.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 (+170) diff 215.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (-130) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-155) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-140) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (-123) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daniel Susac Over 0.5 (-175) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 -175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (+220) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 (-190) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-189	+144	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-125) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — LaMonte Wade Jr. Over 0.5 (-115) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	0.5	-109	-122	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (+180) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 33.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-165) diff 208.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wynns Over 0.5 (-130) diff 208.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-140) diff 208.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/113 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/56 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/113 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.54

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-140) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-165) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adrian Del Castillo Over 0.5 (+100) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 0.5 (-185) diff 202.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-193	+142	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.381 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/107 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/49 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 65/107 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-118) diff 202.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-118	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.359 (155 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 62/108 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-165) diff 190.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	-
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 190.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.351 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .929 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/50 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 66/106 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 190.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-175) diff 189.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+132	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.275 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 56/111 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 189.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 190% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 0.5 (-200) diff 189.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+138	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.581 (156 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/106 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 35/51 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 65/106 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 189.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 190% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 (-200) diff 187.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+145	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-193	+142	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 187.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.267 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/103 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 66/103 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 187.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 187.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 187% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 (-150) diff 177.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	-
Caesars	0.5	-150	+112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 177.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.449 (126 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 54/107 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 177.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 177.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 177% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 (-150) diff 165.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 165.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (-175) diff 156.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 156.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.294 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 62/105 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 156.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 156.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 157% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 (-190) diff 144.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.376 (133 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/111 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 71/111 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-155) diff 99.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.00 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 99.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.364 (129 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 65/104 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 99.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 99.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.86
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.190 (24 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 over 0.5 (62%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 54/104 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+110) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.406 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.09

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+120) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.474 (173 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 15 PA | 7/14 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS 1.462
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/112 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 47/112 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+104) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.442 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/106 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.18 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 46/106 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.98

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+128) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.478 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/104 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 47/104 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+132) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-177) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-164	+126	-
Caesars	1.5	-170	+124	-
DK	1.5	-177	+132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+136) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +136; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/109 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 46/109 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+111) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.471 (50 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 18 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .653
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+125) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.388 (156 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/112 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 53/112 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+101) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-130	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (53 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .481
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 56/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 56/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+109) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.315 (53 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 26 PA | 6/24 | HR 1 | K% 11.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .683
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/109 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter TB: 48/109 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+140) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/92 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/92 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-205) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	Recommended
DK	1.5	+152	-205	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.199 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 34.8% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .490
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/106 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 76/106 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+111) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.622 (71 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/112 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 46/112 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+115) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.379 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 30/77 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/38 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 30/77 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+110) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.525 (56 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/108 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 45/108 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+102) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/102 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 43/102 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+146) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.191 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 7.7% | OPS 1.205
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/88 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/44 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 16/44 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 31/88 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+126) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.421 (117 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 41/95 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 41/95 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+133) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.308 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/106 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 43/106 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+130) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.456 (62 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+120) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (84 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/107 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/107 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+134) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Freeman Over 1.5 (+145) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+118) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.399 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/111 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 47/111 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-140) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.463 (28 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/104 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/50 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 68/104 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+138) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.496 (117 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+130) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (+133) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-156) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-156	+117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.334 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/108 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 46/108 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+141) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.289 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/109 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 45/109 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+128) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.181
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 37/85 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/39 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 37/85 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+113) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+138) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+139) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+130) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.613 (115 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/111 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 53/111 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+117) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (42 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 41/111 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-185) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.348 (73 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+133) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.407 (129 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/102 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 43/102 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+130) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.371 (31 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 35/81 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 35/81 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+135) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.445 (119 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/107 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 40/107 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+180) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+145) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-109) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.278 (73 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/109 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 40/109 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+122) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+130) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 24 PA | 3/21 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/106 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 46/106 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.66

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-173) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 65/92 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/38 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 65/92 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+127) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+139) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 1.5 (+171) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+144) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (+133) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+131) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (-116) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+101) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-116) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.602 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 36 PA | 7/35 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 2.8% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 36 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-170) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.432 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/106 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 67/106 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-208) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -208

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	Recommended
DK	1.5	+155	-208	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.389 (158 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 71/110 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+121) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+125) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+101) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-110	-125	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+137) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+111) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.235 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 27 PA | 8/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .991
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/109 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 40/109 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+122) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+132) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+134) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-183) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.351 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 59/103 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+135) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/104 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/47 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 35/104 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.41

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+108) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+129) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+140) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sung-Mun Song Over 1.5 (+167) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +167

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Under 1.5 (-200) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.367 (138 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 7 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 70/109 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-106) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (43 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/97 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 44/97 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-138) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.341 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 1 | K% 19.2% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .715
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/109 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 66/109 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+115) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 42/109 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (-175) diff 197.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.425 (167 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/55 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 72/111 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 (-175) diff 176.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (59 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .821
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/98 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/48 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 60/98 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 176% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-135) diff 168.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 168.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/100 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/51 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 53/100 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 168.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 169% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (+125) diff 165.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+125	-165	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+128	-167	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+128	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-130) diff 165.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-150) diff 165.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-190) diff 121.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 121.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.348 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 16 PA | 1/15 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .392
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 53/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/51 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 53/105 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 121.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Over 0.5 (-175) diff 118.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!–! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 118.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.307 (58 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/98 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/50 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 61/98 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 118.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 118.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 118.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.08
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.325 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 25/51 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 54/106 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 118.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-160) diff 91.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!–! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (28 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 52/103 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 91.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

▸ Total — 4 play(s) (B 1 | C 3)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Under 11.5 11.5 (-117) edge 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Under 11.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 11.5 -117

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 11.5

Line distribution: 11.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Under 11.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	11.5	-	-120	-
BetOnline	11.5	-	-115	-
BetRivers	11.5	-	-115	-
BetUS	11.5	-	-115	-
Bovada Direct	11.5	-	-120	-
DK	11.5	-	-117	Selected
FanDuel	11.5	-	-120	-
LowVig	11.5	-	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	11.5	-	-115	-
theScore Bet	11.5	-	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Model total: 10.1 runs vs line 11.5
Home SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Ian Seymour (LHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs LHP (neutral)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.32)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 103)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 10.1
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.19, weather 0.93, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Stats within normal range

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-119) edge 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -119

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 8 books | 8 at 2 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 8 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-118	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-120	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-120	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-120	-	-
DK	7.5	-119	-	Selected
LowVig	7.5	-118	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7.5	-119	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	8	-102	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael McGreevy (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 100)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-110) edge 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 8 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -110

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 9 books | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 8 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-110	-	-
BetOnline	8	-110	-	-
BetRivers	8	-110	-	-
BetUS	8	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-105	-	Recommended
DK	8	-110	-	Selected
FanDuel	8	-115	-	-
LowVig	8	-107	-	-
MyBookie	8	-111	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+110	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 104)
Los Angeles Dodgers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 115 (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 68%, bullpen 32%, offense factor 1.10
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Los Angeles Dodgers strong offense (wRC+ 115)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-115) edge 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 8 -107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -115

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 9 books | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 8 -107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-115	-	-
BetOnline	8	-115	-	-
BetRivers	8	-107	-	Recommended
BetUS	8	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-110	-	-
DK	8	-115	-	Selected
FanDuel	8	-112	-	-
LowVig	8	-113	-	-
MyBookie	8	-113	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+110	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Cal Quantrill (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Logan Webb (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 73%, bullpen 27%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

▸ F5 Total — 3 play(s) (B 2 | C 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (+106) edge 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5) | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 6 -105 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 6 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 6 -105 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 5.5 +106; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	5.5	-138	+106	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetMGM	6	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	6	-115	-105	Recommended
BetUS	6	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	6	-110	-120	-
Caesars	6	-125	-105	-
MyBookie	6	-109	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
F5 model: 5.1 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Michael Lorenzen xFIP 4.20
Ian Seymour xFIP 4.20
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP)
Away SP: Ian Seymour (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: selected-line market against 45.6% (1 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-140) edge 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (F5) | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5	-120	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	5	-130	+100	-
MyBookie	5	-121	-101	-
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-140	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
Cristian Javier xFIP 4.20
Shane Bieber xFIP 4.20
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cristian Javier (RHP)
Away SP: Shane Bieber (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Over 4.5 4.5 (+108) edge 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (F5) | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4 -115 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 4 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4 -115 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 4.5 +108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	4	-115	-105	Recommended
BetUS	4	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	4	-130	+100	-
Caesars	4	-125	-105	-
MyBookie	4	-123	+101	-
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-140	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 4.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Cam Schlittler xFIP 4.20
Michael McGreevy xFIP 4.20
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 100)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 108 (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Away SP: Michael McGreevy (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 45.2% (1 books)

▸ Batter HR — 139 play(s) (B 2 | C 137)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Tyler Freeman Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 98.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0096
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.190 (24 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/104 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 103/104 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0306
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.307 (58 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/98 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/50 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 95/98 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.8% / Under 82.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — LaMonte Wade Jr. Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Derek Hill Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0385
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.364 (129 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/104 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 100/104 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jhostynxon Garcia Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/104 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 47/47 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 104/104 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-900) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-800) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-700) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0545
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.389 (158 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 104/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0561
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.468 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0588
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.407 (129 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/102 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 96/102 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 87.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.432 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/106 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 100/106 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0660
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.325 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/106 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/106 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0777
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (28 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/103 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 96/103 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (59 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .821
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/98 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 92/98 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0727
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.602 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 36 PA | 7/35 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 2.8% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 36 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 103/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0849
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.199 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 34.8% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .490
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0755
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.405 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0800
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/100 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 92/100 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0734
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.289 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/109 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 101/109 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 83.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0865
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.463 (28 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/104 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 95/104 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 83.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/109 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/109 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 83.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.348 (73 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/108 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 99/108 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0857
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.294 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/105 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 96/105 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0971
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.351 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/103 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 93/103 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1081
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.376 (133 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/111 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 100/111 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1134
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (43 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/97 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 87/97 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1009
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.367 (138 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 7 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/109 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 99/109 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1038
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 24 PA | 3/21 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/106 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 96/106 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0941
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.181
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/85 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/39 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 77/85 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/109 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/109 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1263
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.258 (61 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/95 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 84/95 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1165
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.267 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/103 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 92/103 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1171
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.425 (167 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/111 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/111 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1215
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.357 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/107 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 95/107 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1239
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 100/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.348 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 16 PA | 1/15 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .392
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 93/105 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 93/105 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-750) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1171
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (42 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/111 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 101/111 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.613 (115 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-500) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1196
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/92 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 82/92 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1171
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.275 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/111 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 99/111 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-600) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1296
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.334 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/108 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 95/108 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.467 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.341 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 1 | K% 19.2% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .715
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/109 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 94/109 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.351 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .929 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.278 (73 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/109 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 94/109 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1509
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.581 (156 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1524
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.456 (62 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-650) diff 69.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1354
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.442 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/96 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 83/96 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1495
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.449 (126 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/107 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 95/107 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-700) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.525 (56 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/108 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 93/108 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-700) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.371 (31 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/81 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 69/81 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1569
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/102 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 87/102 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-900) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1622
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.399 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 95/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1688
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.379 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 66/77 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 66/77 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.359 (155 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/108 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/108 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 89/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.308 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.191 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 7.7% | OPS 1.205
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/88 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 77/88 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-900) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1776
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.381 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/107 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 89/107 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1682
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.445 (119 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/107 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 90/107 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-700) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1776
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (84 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/107 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 89/107 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.496 (117 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1895
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.421 (117 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/95 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 77/95 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1957
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/92 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 75/92 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1980
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.461 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/101 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 81/101 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-700) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2110
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.235 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 27 PA | 8/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .991
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/109 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 88/109 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.388 (156 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 90/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-550) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2054
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.622 (71 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 90/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-600) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2264
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.471 (50 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 18 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .653
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/102 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 78/102 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-650) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2202
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.158 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/109 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 86/109 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-500) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2054
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.474 (173 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 15 PA | 7/14 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS 1.462
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/112 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 91/112 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-600) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2212
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.478 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/104 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 84/104 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-650) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/109 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 88/109 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-550) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2569
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.315 (53 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 26 PA | 6/24 | HR 1 | K% 11.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .683
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/109 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 83/109 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-390) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2655
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (53 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .481
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 84/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-400) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3235
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/102 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 77/102 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-400) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2703
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.390 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/111 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 84/111 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-400) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2897
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.406 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/107 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 77/107 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-350) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3113
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.442 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/106 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 78/106 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3153
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.42x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.406 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.881 (41 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.482
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/111 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 81/111 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.450/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.450/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Justin Wrobleski Over 18.5 (+130) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+135	-190	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	18.5	+140	-190	-
DK	18.5	+130	-174	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+144	-198	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	18.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 20.08 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 8.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.6% / under 59.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.6 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.6 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 32 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .148 | OPS .466
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.6%, L7 21.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 21.9%/32 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 10.6%, L7 9.9%, season 10.9%, BVP 12.5%/32 PA (adj 1.14x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 18.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matt Boyd Under 17.5 (-105) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 16.287 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (no recent-form adjustment); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, L7 20.6%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.7% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, L7 6.5%, season 10.0% (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael King Under 17.5 (+108) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-110	-
BetOnline	17.5	-130	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-143	+108	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-144	+108	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.762999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .183 | OPS .535
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 16.9%, L7 17.6%, season 19.3%, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 10.5%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 10.4%/67 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 18.5 (+131) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 18 -140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 18.44 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 7 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 18 -140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 18.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	18	-140	+100	Recommended
BetMGM	18.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	18.5	+135	-175	-
Caesars	18.5	+130	-180	-
DK	18.5	+131	-175	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+132	-178	-
Fanatics	18.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.729 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 18.44 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 106
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.5%, L7 18.9%, season 20.3%, top-6 18.6% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.4%, L7 7.9%, season 8.5% (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.6% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/23 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Under 18.5 (-149) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 18.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 18.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	18.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	18.5	+109	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+112	-149	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+114	-154	-
Fanatics	18.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.4 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 0.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Webb: 79 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .222 | OPS .629
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.8%, L7 29.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 13.9%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.0%, L7 8.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 3.8%/79 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.00 | Season Avg 18.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 18.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matthew Boyd Under 17.5 (-101) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 17.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	17.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-137	+104	-
DK	17.5	-131	-101	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-136	+102	-
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.487 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 101 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .194 | OPS .602
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.2%, L7 20.6%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 22.8%/101 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 10.2%, L7 6.5%, season 10.0%, BVP 5.0%/101 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 16.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ F5 ML — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — St. Louis Cardinals (+170) edge 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (F5) | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers +185 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +170

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetRivers +185 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Cam Schlittler xFIP 4.20
Michael McGreevy xFIP 4.20
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 100)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 108 (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Away SP: Michael McGreevy (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+124) edge 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5) | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers +138 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +124

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetRivers +138 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Michael Lorenzen xFIP 4.20
Ian Seymour xFIP 4.20
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP)
Away SP: Ian Seymour (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — Chicago Cubs +1.5 1.5 (-157) edge 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Chicago Cubs 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -157

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Chicago Cubs 1.5 -154 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✗!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+11.84/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.3% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 9.9% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 0 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -157 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 104)
Los Angeles Dodgers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 115 (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 68%, bullpen 32%, offense factor 1.10
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Los Angeles Dodgers strong offense (wRC+ 115)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 33% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

GAME BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-119	51.9%	75.8%	+23.9%	$+39.57	9	Bet on DK
C	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-110	50.0%	71.1%	+21.1%	$+35.81	9	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-115	51.1%	70.6%	+19.5%	$+31.93	9	Bet on DK
B	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	Total	Under 11.5	DK	-117	51.5%	67.9%	+16.4%	$+25.89	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (4 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (Total) +23.9%

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael McGreevy (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 100)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.0 — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +21.1%

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 104)
Los Angeles Dodgers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 115 (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 68%, bullpen 32%, offense factor 1.10
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Los Angeles Dodgers strong offense (wRC+ 115)

C Over 8.0 — San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (Total) +19.5%

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Cal Quantrill (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Logan Webb (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 73%, bullpen 27%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

B Under 11.5 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (Total) +16.4%

[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Model total: 10.1 runs vs line 11.5
Home SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Ian Seymour (LHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs LHP (neutral)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.32)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 103)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 10.1
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.19, weather 0.93, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

5 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (F5)	7:06 PM	F5 ML	St. Louis Cardinals	DK	+170	35.0%	48.6%	+13.6%	$+31.36	9	Bet on DK
B	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	8:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	+106	45.6%	57.1%	+11.5%	$+17.63	6	Bet on DK
B	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (F5)	8:10 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-140	54.8%	64.7%	+9.8%	$+10.86	6	Bet on DK
C	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (F5)	7:06 PM	F5 Total	Over 4.5	FanDuel	+108	45.2%	54.9%	+9.7%	$+14.11	6	Bet on DK
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	8:41 PM	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	DK	+124	42.0%	51.0%	+9.0%	$+14.29	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (5 play(s))

C St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (F5) (F5 ML) +13.6%

Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Cam Schlittler xFIP 4.20
Michael McGreevy xFIP 4.20
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 100)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 108 (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Away SP: Michael McGreevy (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 Total) +11.5%

[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
F5 model: 5.1 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Michael Lorenzen xFIP 4.20
Ian Seymour xFIP 4.20
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP)
Away SP: Ian Seymour (LHP)

B Under 5.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (F5) (F5 Total) +9.8%

F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
Cristian Javier xFIP 4.20
Shane Bieber xFIP 4.20
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cristian Javier (RHP)
Away SP: Shane Bieber (RHP)

C Over 4.5 — St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (F5) (F5 Total) +9.7%

F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 4.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Cam Schlittler xFIP 4.20
Michael McGreevy xFIP 4.20
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 100)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 108 (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Away SP: Michael McGreevy (RHP)

C Colorado Rockies — Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 ML) +9.0%

[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Michael Lorenzen xFIP 4.20
Ian Seymour xFIP 4.20
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP)
Away SP: Ian Seymour (LHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:41 PM · decision fi-4c53d4a5b403961f

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.7% / YRFI 49.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Andrew Alvarez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Aaron Nola · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-02 · updated 2026-08-03T20:53:52.277640Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Andrew Alvarez / Aaron Nola announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSAndrew Alvarez / Aaron Nola announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-105	-120	48.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+116	-148	43.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees

7:06 PM · decision fi-d41e415733e8dd87

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.4% / YRFI 49.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Michael McGreevy · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cam Schlittler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-02 · updated 2026-08-03T20:53:52.277640Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.504
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Michael McGreevy / Cam Schlittler announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.504

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMichael McGreevy / Cam Schlittler announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-113	-117	49.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-115	49.8%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

7:41 PM · decision fi-b8e2d948cc490774

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.1% / YRFI 49.9%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Bubba Chandler · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Brandon Sproat · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-02 · updated 2026-08-03T20:53:52.277640Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.501
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Bubba Chandler / Brandon Sproat announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.501

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBubba Chandler / Brandon Sproat announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-115	-110	50.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-112	-120	49.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs

8:06 PM · decision fi-cd382ab6c8c70b9f

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.1% / YRFI 49.9%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Justin Wrobleski · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Matthew Boyd · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-02 · updated 2026-08-03T20:53:52.277640Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.501
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Justin Wrobleski / Matthew Boyd announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.501

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJustin Wrobleski / Matthew Boyd announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNconfirmed / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-133	+100	53.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers

8:06 PM · decision fi-05e4811afd1d3c35

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.7% / YRFI 50.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Logan Webb · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cal Quantrill · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-02 · updated 2026-08-03T20:53:52.277640Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.497
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Logan Webb / Cal Quantrill announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.497

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSLogan Webb / Cal Quantrill announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros

8:10 PM · decision fi-dbeb1c27d9f34995

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 47.7% / YRFI 52.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Shane Bieber · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cristian Javier · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-02 · updated 2026-08-03T20:53:52.277640Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.477
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Shane Bieber / Cristian Javier announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.477

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSShane Bieber / Cristian Javier announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-103	-130	47.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+108	-138	45.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies

8:41 PM · decision fi-d79a22b636eb5a59

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 45.1% / YRFI 54.9%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Ian Seymour · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Michael Lorenzen · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-02 · updated 2026-08-03T20:53:52.277640Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.451
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ian Seymour / Michael Lorenzen announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.451

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSIan Seymour / Michael Lorenzen announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+120	-155	42.8%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+104	-139	45.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+123	-165	41.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+120	-154	42.8%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+115	-145	44.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:41 PM · decision fi-0761a1a301c12c14

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.8% / YRFI 50.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Michael King · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Brandon Pfaadt · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-02 · updated 2026-08-03T20:53:52.277640Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Michael King / Brandon Pfaadt announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMichael King / Brandon Pfaadt announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-115	-110	50.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-108	-118	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 139 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=139
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	-	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+230	-	37.6%	28.0%	+9.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-	Cal Quantrill (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	34.9%	22.0%	+12.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	1	Matthew Boyd (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	34.1%	19.7%	+14.4%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	33.1%	25.8%	+7.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Christian Walker	Houston Astros	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	-	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.5%	18.8%	+13.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	2	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	32.4%	25.8%	+6.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	5	Bubba Chandler (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	30.0%	17.9%	+12.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	-	Brandon Sproat (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	29.8%	19.7%	+10.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-	Justin Wrobleski (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.6%	18.8%	+10.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Aaron Nola (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	29.0%	20.8%	+8.2%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	1	Bubba Chandler (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	28.7%	14.3%	+14.5%	96	-
Best HR Chance	Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-	Justin Wrobleski (L)	theScore Bet	+425	-	28.4%	17.9%	+10.6%	95	-
Best HR Chance	Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Brandon Pfaadt (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	27.8%	17.9%	+9.9%	92	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	2	Matthew Boyd (L)	theScore Bet	+500	-	27.1%	15.6%	+11.5%	90	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Ian Seymour (L)	theScore Bet	+260	-	26.4%	25.8%	+0.7%	88	-
Best HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	-	Cristian Javier (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	26.1%	18.8%	+7.3%	87	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Michael King (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	25.3%	17.9%	+7.4%	84	-
Strong HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	2	Andrew Alvarez (L)	theScore Bet	+230	-	25.2%	28.0%	-2.9%	84	-
Strong HR Chance	Yandy Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	24.8%	15.6%	+9.2%	83	-
Best HR Chance	Bryan De La Cruz	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	5	Andrew Alvarez (L)	theScore Bet	+550	-	24.8%	14.3%	+10.5%	83	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	90.8%	-985	Ben Rice, Jordan Walker, Spencer Jones, Ryan McMahon	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	100	90.2%	-925	CJ Abrams, Kyle Schwarber, Bryan De La Cruz, James Wood	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	100	88.7%	-784	Shohei Ohtani, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Andy Pages	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	100	86.8%	-659	Jake Bauers, Brandon Lowe, Brice Turang, Endy Rodriguez	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	100	86.6%	-644	Junior Caminero, Hunter Goodman, Yandy Diaz, Tyler Freeman	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	100	86.5%	-642	Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Elias Diaz, Bryce Eldridge	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5%	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	84.9%	-562	Manny Machado, Corbin Carroll, Jackson Merrill, Ty France	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	100	84.8%	-560	Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Kazuma Okamoto, Yainer Diaz	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (+230) HR chance 37.6% | edge +9.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.315, OPS 1.092, ISO 0.320, TB/G 2.36
Statcast: barrel 18.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.5/118.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.713
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 30/111 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 15.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.406, xERA 7.53, whiff 23.2%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 1.482, K% 12.5% (8 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.071, OPS 1.163, ISO 0.340 (364 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Rafael Devers — San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (+325) HR chance 34.9% | edge +12.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.205, OPS 0.805, ISO 0.231, TB/G 1.82
Statcast: barrel 11.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.3/112.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.451
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 21/112 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 15.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.326, xERA 4.48, whiff 19.6%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.462, K% 20.0% (15 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.059, OPS 0.926, ISO 0.287 (324 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (+375) HR chance 34.1% | edge +14.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.226, OPS 0.939, ISO 0.250, TB/G 2.00
Statcast: barrel 16.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.8/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.578
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 24/102 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 21.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.320, xERA 4.30, whiff 26.0%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.653, K% 22.2% (18 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 0.931, ISO 0.283 (149 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Strong HR Chance Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (+260) HR chance 33.1% | edge +7.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.270, OPS 0.917, ISO 0.262, TB/G 2.05
Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.9/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.507
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 27/111 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 15.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.360, xERA 5.62, whiff 19.1%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 2.167, K% 16.7% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 0.895, ISO 0.273 (345 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN

Best HR Chance Christian Walker — Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (+400) HR chance 32.5% | edge +13.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.202, OPS 0.775, ISO 0.222, TB/G 1.71
Statcast: barrel 9.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.4/112.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.385
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 21/109 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 15.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.406, xERA 7.53, whiff 23.2%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.818, K% 27.3% (11 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.048, OPS 0.766, ISO 0.215 (351 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (+260) HR chance 32.4% | edge +6.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.290, OPS 0.915, ISO 0.295, TB/G 2.09
Statcast: barrel 15.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.1/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.520
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 30/107 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 16.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.361, xERA 5.66, whiff 18.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.074, OPS 0.982, ISO 0.333 (296 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0306

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Jake Bauers — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (+425) HR chance 30.0% | edge +12.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.198, OPS 0.877, ISO 0.234, TB/G 1.70
Statcast: barrel 13.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.7/114.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.483
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 20/101 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 20.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.308, xERA 3.96, whiff 22.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.056, OPS 0.902, ISO 0.242 (302 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.461, xwOBA 0.353 (58 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

Best HR Chance Brandon Lowe — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (+375) HR chance 29.8% | edge +10.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.221, OPS 0.810, ISO 0.233, TB/G 1.93
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.9/111.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.452
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 20/104 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 24.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.338, xERA 4.86, whiff 25.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.059, OPS 0.899, ISO 0.279 (323 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.478, xwOBA 0.372 (46 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+1200	0.4%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Troy Johnston	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	+700	0.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Masyn Winn	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+900	0.6%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Andres Gimenez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	+700	1.2%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Ezequiel Tovar	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	+550	1.3%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN \| Cold recent HR form
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+1000	1.3%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Ernie Clement	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	+700	1.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nicky Lopez	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+1600	1.6%	Batter stats team Miami Marlins does not match game teams \| Low lineup spot (9) \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Xander Bogaerts	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+700	1.7%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Bryson Stott	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+700	1.7%	Pitcher has suppressed HRs

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	Cristian Javier	Shane Bieber	1.00	15.2%	43.8%	-	+0.0%
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Brandon Pfaadt	Michael King	1.02	15.1%	43.7%	-	+0.0%
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Cal Quantrill	Logan Webb	1.10	13.5%	40.5%	9.8%	+3.6%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	Michael Lorenzen	Ian Seymour	1.20	13.4%	40.4%	-	+0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Brandon Sproat	Bubba Chandler	1.08	13.2%	39.9%	9.6%	+3.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	Matthew Boyd	Justin Wrobleski	1.05	11.3%	36.0%	9.9%	+1.4%
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Aaron Nola	Andrew Alvarez	1.10	9.8%	32.5%	7.5%	+2.2%
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Cam Schlittler	Michael McGreevy	1.18	9.2%	31.2%	5.4%	+3.8%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

16 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals	66.9	64.1	75.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.265, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies	60.5	59.6	65.0	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	51.4	53.9	47.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers	49.8	52.4	47.5	5	Slider (47% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	49.7	45.1	53.5	6	Slider (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	48.4	54.6	44.0	5	Slider (37% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	47.5	41.8	52.5	6	Curveball (32% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers	47.2	42.2	54.0	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.7	53.0	43.0	5	Changeup (30% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	45.4	51.8	38.5	6	Curveball (32% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	44.3	57.8	28.0	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs	43.2	40.6	47.5	7	4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 49% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants	41.0	36.8	44.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays	35.2	37.4	27.5	7	Changeup (31% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees	31.6	35.8	27.0	7	Curveball (26% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros	26.1	43.8	4.5	6	Curveball (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.406, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

16 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	R	15.5%	5.6	8.0	7.3	94	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	20.5%	6.4	5.5	5.7	107	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	14.8%	4.5	4.8	4.7	76	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	25.6%	2.4	5.3	5.0	40	short	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs	L	22.3%	6.6	6.6	6.6	111	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	23.5%	4.5	5.2	5.0	76	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	31.8%	6.3	5.9	6.0	106	deep	full	75.00	25.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	R	23.5%	5.7	5.2	5.3	96	normal	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	19.2%	4.9	5.2	5.2	82	short	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.5%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers	R	17.2%	5.6	6.3	6.1	94	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees	R	16.4%	5.1	5.5	5.4	86	short	full	27.00	73.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies	L	29.3%	4.3	11.2	8.5	72	short	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants	R	16.3%	4.6	9.8	7.5	77	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros	R	19.1%	5.3	4.5	5.0	89	normal	full	4.50	95.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	20.7%	3.9	8.2	6.8	65	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Justin Wrobleski	Justin Wrobleski Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	18.5	20.1	1.6	8.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.6	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Matt Boyd	Matt Boyd Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	16.3	-1.2	6.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael King	Michael King Under	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	16.8	-0.7	4.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	18.5	18.7	0.2	1.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Under	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	18.5	18.4	-0.1	0.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.1	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Matthew Boyd	Matthew Boyd Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	17.5	-0.0	0.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

126 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Brice Turang	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.72	1.16	0.86	0.69	2.48 / Over	0.30	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Yainer Diaz	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.70	1.47	0.61	0.61	2.63 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jackson Chourio	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.67	1.25	0.86	0.56	2.42 / Over	0.30	season_games=77,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
James Wood	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.65	1.02	0.94	0.69	2.48 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.60	1.19	0.79	0.62	2.51 / Over	0.30	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.58	1.08	0.67	0.83	2.43 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Elias Diaz	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.56	1.47	0.55	0.55	2.63 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Bryan De La Cruz	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.56	1.35	0.58	0.63	2.36 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Tyler Freeman	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	Over 1.5	2.50	1.25	0.59	0.65	2.16 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.48	1.16	0.67	0.66	2.31 / Over	0.30	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ben Rice	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.45	1.10	0.72	0.63	2.70 / Over	0.30	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.45	1.13	0.68	0.64	2.40 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Kyle Schwarber	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.44	1.00	0.81	0.64	2.29 / Over	0.30	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Hunter Goodman	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	Over 1.5	2.43	0.95	0.74	0.73	1.99 / Over	0.35	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryce Harper	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.42	0.96	0.70	0.75	2.40 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.36	1.02	0.65	0.69	2.50 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake Bauers	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.35	0.92	0.69	0.74	2.24 / Over	0.30	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Christian Walker	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.35	1.00	0.67	0.68	2.46 / Over	0.30	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jake McCarthy	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	Over 1.5	2.32	1.00	0.58	0.73	1.90 / Over	0.35	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.31	1.22	0.54	0.55	2.16 / Over	0.30	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.30	1.12	0.50	0.67	2.22 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
William Contreras	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.29	1.07	0.56	0.66	2.08 / Over	0.30	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.25	1.07	0.62	0.56	2.14 / Over	0.30	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.24	1.20	0.57	0.47	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ketel Marte	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.24	1.03	0.58	0.63	2.14 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes