MLB Bets 2026-08-02

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	777W–374L–0P	68%	-30.57 u	Last 14 days • 1151 settled
Grade A	26W–27L–0P	49%	-6.65 u
Grade B	751W–347L–0P	68%	-23.93 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2871W–1859L–8P	61%	-159.16 u	All-time • 4738 settled
Grade A	240W–181L–0P	57%	-0.80 u
Grade B	2631W–1678L–8P	61%	-158.36 u

191 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Burleson	1.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	A.J. Ewing	0.5	-351	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-333	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Alejandro Kirk	0.5	-234	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Alex Bregman	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Andrew Benintendi	0.5	-398	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Austin Riley	0.5	-331	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Austin Wells	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-549	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-281	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	-369	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brice Turang	0.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Bryan Torres	0.5	-346	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-366	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Carter Jensen	0.5	-302	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.5	-561	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Christian Walker	0.5	-262	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-230	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Colson Montgomery	0.5	-378	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Corey Seager	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Dane Myers	0.5	-294	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-426	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-386	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Dylan Beavers	0.5	-245	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Enmanuel Valdez	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-476	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.5	-237	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Evan Carter	0.5	-214	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Francisco Lindor	0.5	-293	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Gleyber Torres	0.5	-122	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Griffin Conine	0.5	-230	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Gunnar Henderson	0.5	-306	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-417	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jackson Holliday	0.5	-278	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jake Bauers	0.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-352	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jake Mangum	0.5	-459	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	James Jarvis	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	James Wood	0.5	-178	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jared Young	0.5	-407	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jeremy Pena	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Joc Pederson	0.5	-192	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	John Rave	0.5	-501	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jonny Deluca	0.5	-354	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jorge Polanco	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jose Altuve	0.5	-319	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jose Caballero	0.5	-376	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Josh Rojas	0.5	-620	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-364	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Kazuma Okamoto	0.5	-184	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-281	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Kyle Manzardo	0.5	-261	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber	0.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Luis Robert Jr.	0.5	-530	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Luis Urias	0.5	-277	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Luke Maile	0.5	-446	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Marcus Semien	0.5	-465	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-343	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Mickey Moniak	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Miguel Amaya	0.5	-515	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Mike Yastrzemski	0.5	-251	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Munetaka Murakami	0.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-384	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Nick Loftin	0.5	-334	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-364	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Nico Hoerner	0.5	-386	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Noelvi Marte	0.5	-496	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Nolan Arenado	0.5	-405	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-374	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Owen Caissie	0.5	-262	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-359	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Pete Alonso	0.5	-242	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ronald Acuna Jr.	0.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ryan McMahon	0.5	-306	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ryan Vilade	0.5	-337	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-364	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-220	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-294	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Taylor Trammell	0.5	-225	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-448	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Tristan Peters	0.5	-416	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Troy Johnston	0.5	-346	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Tyler Stephenson	0.5	-222	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Willi Castro	0.5	-267	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford	0.5	-190	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	F5 Total	Under	6.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Cade Cavalli	4.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Colin Rea	5.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Gavin Williams	6.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Griffin Jax	5.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Jake Bennett	3.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Kumar Rocker	4.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Max Scherzer	3.5	114	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Zack Wheeler	7.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	NRFI	NRFI	-	118	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Anthony Kay	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	2.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Chase Burns	2.5	-185	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Colin Rea	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Emmet Sheehan	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Gavin Williams	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	George Kirby	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Gerrit Cole	1.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Griffin Jax	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	JR Ritchie	2.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob Misiorowski	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Keider Montero	2.5	-103	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Merrill Kelly	2.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Seth Lugo	3.5	-113	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Walbert Urena	2.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Cade Cavalli	5.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Kyle Bradish	5.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Landen Roupp	5.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Peter Lambert	5.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Sandy Alcantara	6.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Seth Lugo	7.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Seth Lugo	6.5	116	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Outs	Gavin Williams	17.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Anthony Kay	1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Colin Rea	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	George Kirby	1.5	-248	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Keider Montero	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Kumar Rocker	1.5	-202	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Bradish	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Peter Lambert	1.5	-181	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Walbert Urena	2.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Run Line	Boston Red Sox	+1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	YRFI	YRFI	-	130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	YRFI	YRFI	-	124	-	PENDING	-

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	493	56%	-11.62u	63	46%	-12.19u	231	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	439	57%	+2.69u	59	44%	-13.71u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	156	56%	+1.22u	18	72%	+4.30u	43	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1304	74%	-7.70u	677	77%	+1.36u	7	86%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	473	57%	-15.93u	106	49%	-17.59u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	345	61%	-7.44u	79	63%	+2.28u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	46	74%	+1.84u	9	56%	-2.06u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	33	55%	+0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	113	48%	-11.69u	6	83%	+2.43u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	21	52%	-1.85u	20	55%	-0.85u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	550	52%	-49.19u	66	64%	+7.50u	80	55%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 10 actionable / 31 total candidate(s); season N 493, 14d N 63	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 439, 14d N 59	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 156, 14d N 18	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 46, 14d N 9	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 289 total candidate(s); season N 33, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 113, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 21, 14d N 20	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 5 actionable / 230 total candidate(s); season N 550, 14d N 66	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 230 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 774 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 222 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 751 pitcher(s), 3327 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 568 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 20 team(s), 180 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1104 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 180 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 10 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: St. Louis Cardinals, Athletics, Chicago Cubs, Minnesota Twins, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Cincinnati Reds
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 30 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 332 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 27 line(s)/14 game(s); Hits Allowed 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 25 line(s)/13 game(s); Earned Runs 30 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 128, betmgm 11, bovada_direct 3, espnbet 2
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 3274 market side(s) checked \| 3274 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 6 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 230 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 10 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 611 \| batter bats 401 \| batter hand splits 150 \| pitcher HR splits 56 \| batter pitch-type 568 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 266 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	+101	-122	-1.5 (+161)	1.5 (-197)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	-150	+124	-1.5 (+114)	1.5 (-137)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	+113	-136	1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	1:41 PM	+144	-175	1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	+124	-150	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	1:41 PM	+120	-145	1.5 (-170)	-1.5 (+140)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	1:41 PM	-120	+100	-1.5 (+136)	1.5 (-164)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	2:11 PM	+114	-137	1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-120	-101	-1.5 (+148)	1.5 (-179)	O/U 6.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	+106	-127	1.5 (-182)	-1.5 (+150)	O/U 11.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	3:16 PM	-232	+188	-1.5 (-132)	1.5 (+110)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	4:06 PM	-114	-105	-1.5 (+134)	1.5 (-162)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+118	-142	1.5 (-187)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	4:11 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-170)	-1.5 (+140)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	+152	-185	1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

8 Grade A | 134 Grade B | 1058 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 8 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: top-six opp K% 17.0%, full-lineup opp K% 15.9%, juiced K over -134	K Prop	Gavin Williams Over	DIA@GUA	1:41 PM	6.5	7.9	-134	BetOnline Over 6.5 -119 \| best price	22.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan Over	SOX@DOD	7:21 PM	5.5	6.6	-125	DK Over 5.5 -125 \| exact	19.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	👀 Watch Signal Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization	Batter Walks	James Wood Over	NAT@BRA	1:36 PM	0.5	1.0	-178	DK Over 0.5 -178 \| exact	108.9%	✓✓✓–✓✓	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.5	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker Over	CAR@JAY	1:38 PM	1.5	3.0	-118	DK Over 1.5 -118 \| exact	97.7%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR over-rate: L10 20% + L5 20% (both cold) — risk note	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood Over	NAT@BRA	1:36 PM	1.5	2.8	-123	BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 \| best price	84.2%	✓✓✓–✓✓	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Burleson Over	CAR@JAY	1:38 PM	1.5	2.7	-150	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 \| best price	82.8%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams Over	NAT@BRA	1:36 PM	1.5	2.6	-124	BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 \| best price	74.3%	✓✓✓–✓✓	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin Over	NAT@BRA	1:36 PM	1.5	2.6	-139	DK Over 1.5 -139 \| exact	72.1%	✓✓✓–✓✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (31 play(s))

K Prop - Colin Rea Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 4.93

Pitcher Earned Runs - Anthony Kay Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Michael King Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Total Bases - Owen Caissie Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

F5 Total - Under 6.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 6.5 -128Market line: majority 6 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 6.5 -128 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.6%

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 6 / avg N/A

F5 Total - Over 3.5

Projection: -Displayed: Over 3.5 -144Market line: majority 4 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Over 3.5 -144 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4 / avg N/A

K Prop - Anthony Kay Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 4

K Prop - Cade Cavalli Over

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Pitcher Walks - Kyle Freeland Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Javier Baez Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Liam Hicks Under

Projection: 1.0Displayed: Under 1.5 -259Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Riley Greene Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Shohei Ohtani Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.67

Batter Total Bases - Francisco Alvarez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Willson Contreras Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ceddanne Rafaela Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Kody Clemens Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Wilyer Abreu Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jahmai Jones Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Romy Gonzalez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Henry Bolte Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 0.5 -200Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Pete Alonso Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Brandon Nimmo Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Garrett Mitchell Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Trevor Larnach Over

Projection: 1.5Displayed: Over 1.5 +145Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Gavin Williams Over 6.5 (-134) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-119	-109	Recommended
BetRivers	6.5	-143	+107	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	-
DK	6.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-130	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 22.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Gavin Williams: K/9 12.5, proj 7.9K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.5% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jonathan Parra — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gavin Williams: 28 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .308 | OPS .703
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 16.7%, L7 14.0%, season 19.2%, top-6 17.0%, BVP 21.4%/28 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 16.3%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 14.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6); lineup K% 15.9% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.00 | Season Avg 7.64
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
K% trend: support +11.6 ppts (recent 43.2% vs season 31.6%, proj adj +5.8%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: top-six opp K% 17.0%, full-lineup opp K% 15.9%, juiced K over -134 -- A risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 5.5 (-125) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+101	-
BetRivers	5.5	-130	-103	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-125	-102	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 19.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 10.2, proj 6.6K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.2% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 14 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .593
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.2%, L7 21.6%, season 22.0% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.47
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (-178) diff 108.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -178

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	-
DK	0.5	-178	+128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-200	+140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 108.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/57 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter Walks: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 62/112 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-118) diff 97.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 97.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.43
Base projection 2.43 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.380, xSLG 0.584 (26 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/109 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 34/50 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.76 | Day Batter HRR: 66/109 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.43
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.5 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-123) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.56
Base projection 2.56 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.386 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.82 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 62/112 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.56
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 20% + L5 20% (both cold) — risk note

⚠ HRR trust gate: L10 HRR over-rate 20%, raw gap 1.3 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-150) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-150	+113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.549 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 32/50 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.60 | Day Batter HRR: 63/110 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.25
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note

⚠ HRR trust gate: L10 HRR over-rate 40%, raw gap 1.2, heavy juice -150 -- A risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-124) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.51
Base projection 2.51 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.322 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/108 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 33/52 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.65 | Day Batter HRR: 64/108 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-139) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Base projection 2.41 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.578 (31 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/88 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/46 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.67 | Away Batter HRR: 23/42 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 53/88 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.41
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (134 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Jake Bennett Over 3.5 (-117) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-119	-109	-
BetRivers	3.5	-125	-106	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-117	-109	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-120	-108	-
Fanatics	3.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 48.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.70K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jake Bennett: K/9 6.5, proj 5.2K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.273 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.2%, L7 21.8%, season 20.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.18
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.70K, diff 48.6%, books 83%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Max Scherzer Under 3.5 (+115) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	-
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-154	+119	-
BetRivers	3.5	-167	+125	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 35.8% vs 17% min; cushion -1.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Max Scherzer: K/9 7.6, proj 2.2K over 3.7 IP (season 3.5 IP/GS; recent 3.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.1% | put-away% 10.3% | xwOBA 0.373 | top pitch: Curveball (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jordan Baker — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 24.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Scherzer: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .869
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.5%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.4% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.57 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 under 3.5

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Colin Rea Under 5.5 (-161) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -161

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 4.93 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 4.5 +116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+130	-180	-
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+105	-
BetRivers	4.5	-155	+116	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+130	-169	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	-
DK	5.5	+127	-161	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+134	-172	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 32.4% vs 17% min; cushion -1.78K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.7% / under 58.3%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.67
Colin Rea: K/9 6.7, proj 3.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.7% | put-away% 13.1% | xwOBA 0.357 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Scott Barry — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Changeup: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Colin Rea: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .758
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.8%, L7 26.4%, season 24.4%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 20/22 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.77
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Weather: -7% run env ✓ Under | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Walbert Urena Over 4.5 (-137) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-145	+112	-
BetRivers	4.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-137	+108	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-154	+120	-
Fanatics	4.5	-145	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 32.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.6% / under 45.4%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Walbert Urena: K/9 8.5, proj 5.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.9% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 23.7%, L7 17.0%, season 20.9% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.63
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -137, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.44K, diff 32.1%, books 86%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Over 3.5 (-120) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 29.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Umpire: Jonathan Parra — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Opponent K profile: composite 16.7%, L7 14.0%, season 19.2%, top-6 17.0% (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6); lineup K% 15.9% (6/9)

⚠ K final QC: top-six opp K% 17.0%, full-lineup opp K% 15.9% -- B risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 (-124) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -124

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+101	-
BetRivers	4.5	-134	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-124	-103	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-138	+108	-
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.2% / under 47.8%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Kumar Rocker: K/9 8.5, proj 5.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Todd Tichenor — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kumar Rocker: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .278 | OPS .940
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.4%, L7 24.8%, season 21.7%, top-6 19.2%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.2% (4/6); 2/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.65
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Chase Burns Over 6.5 (-130) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	6.5	-130	+100	-
BetRivers	6.5	-127	-105	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-125	-105	-
DK	6.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-122	-104	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 21.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.36K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Chase Burns: K/9 9.7, proj 7.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.1% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Slider (51% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jacob Metz — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 35.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Chase Burns: 41 PA | K% 39.0% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .210 | OPS .610
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.7%, L7 18.7%, season 23.9%, BVP 39.0%/41 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.40
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5
K% trend: headwind -5.5 ppts (recent 22.6% vs season 28.1%, proj adj -2.8%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -130, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- B risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Michael King Under 5.5 (-116) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+180	-260	-
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-123	-
BetRivers	5.5	-114	-117	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-110	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.5% vs 17% min; cushion -1.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael King: K/9 7.9, proj 4.4K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 21.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 49 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 20.4% | AVG .359 | OPS 1.131
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 18.2%, L7 18.3%, season 20.8%, BVP 14.3%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.95
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Gavin Williams Over 17.5 (-167) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 17.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	17.5	-179	+132	-
DK	17.5	-167	+125	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-205	+145	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 20.745 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 18.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.87 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gavin Williams: 28 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .308 | OPS .703
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 16.7%, L7 14.0%, season 19.2%, top-6 17.0%, BVP 21.4%/28 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 10.4%, L7 6.8%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.1%/28 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.2%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6); lineup K% 15.9% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 18.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-167) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Landen Roupp Under 5.5 (-156) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.81 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 10.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 80 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .672
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.2%, L7 17.8%, season 22.2%, BVP 22.5%/80 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 (-160) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Bradish: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .210 | OPS .654
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.9%, L7 20.5%, season 23.7%, top-6 24.1%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.1% (5/6); lineup K% 23.4% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Under 6.5 (+116) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-155	+115	-
DK	6.5	-154	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	6.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 5.3 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 18.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.35, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 57 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 1.8% | AVG .236 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.0%, L7 27.4%, season 22.9%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 29.8%/57 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cade Cavalli Under 5.5 (-136) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+102	-136	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.4 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 24 PA | K% 45.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .261 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.9%, L7 19.1%, season 21.3%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 45.8%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6); lineup K% 20.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

▸ Pitcher Walks — 9 play(s) (B 9)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Michael King Over 1.5 (-171) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-171	+128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-175	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.466234636214813 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 5.5 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 49 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 20.4% | AVG .359 | OPS 1.131
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 18.2%, L7 18.3%, season 20.8%, BVP 14.3%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 6.7%, L7 10.1%, season 6.9%, BVP 20.4%/49 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kyle Bradish Over 1.5 (-155) diff 62.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.430018985625196 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.3 IP (BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Bradish: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .210 | OPS .654
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.9%, L7 20.5%, season 23.7%, top-6 24.1%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 8.9%, L7 8.7%, season 7.9%, BVP 9.5%/42 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.1% (5/6); lineup K% 23.4% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Peter Lambert Over 1.5 (-164) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-164	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.0851824094036275 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.5 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Peter Lambert: 60 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .927
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.6%, L7 29.0%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.3%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 6.9%, L7 8.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 11.7%/60 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-164) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Colin Rea Over 1.5 (-128) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.0197361939649268 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Colin Rea: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .758
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.8%, L7 26.4%, season 24.4%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 13.6%, L7 8.3%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — George Kirby Under 1.5 (-248) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+183	-248	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+175	-250	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.0797301676955933 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.7 IP (BB% 5.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 33.1% / under 66.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 53 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .314 | OPS .849
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.5%, L7 19.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.8%/53 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 7.6%, L7 6.6%, season 8.6%, BVP 3.8%/53 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-248) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kumar Rocker Over 1.5 (-169) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-169	+127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+130	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.9187203048331962 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kumar Rocker: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .278 | OPS .940
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.4%, L7 24.8%, season 21.7%, top-6 19.2%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.4%, L7 10.5%, season 8.8%, BVP 7.1%/42 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-169) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Keider Montero Under 1.5 (-164) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-165	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.10924071936014 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 4.6 IP (BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 3.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.8%, L7 23.8%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 14.2%, L7 6.1%, season 8.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/23 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Anthony Kay Over 1.5 (-143) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+105	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8746285879672937 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Anthony Kay: 25 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 24.0% | AVG .278 | OPS .924
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 17.0%, L7 24.7%, season 19.3%, top-6 16.5%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 9.9%, L7 3.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 24.0%/25 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Walbert Urena Over 2.5 (-144) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-144	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.0703232693606375 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 22.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.53 over 5.1 IP (BB% 12.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 23.7%, L7 17.0%, season 20.9% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 10.8%, L7 10.7%, season 10.7% (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 16 play(s) (B 16)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Colin Rea Over 1.5 (-172) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	-
DK	1.5	-172	+129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 93.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.05 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.72, ERA 4.55)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Colin Rea: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .758
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.8%, L7 26.4%, season 24.4%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ Heavy juice (-172) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Kay Over 1.5 (-172) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-172	+129	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	Raw BestVerify

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.85 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.80, ERA 4.12)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Anthony Kay: 25 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 24.0% | AVG .278 | OPS .924
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 17.0%, L7 24.7%, season 19.3%, top-6 16.5%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-172) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Over 1.5 (-171) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-171	+128	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.10 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 3.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 49 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 20.4% | AVG .359 | OPS 1.131
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 18.2%, L7 18.3%, season 20.8%, BVP 14.3%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — George Kirby Over 1.5 (-144) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.65 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 3.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 53 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .314 | OPS .849
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.5%, L7 19.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.8%/53 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gerrit Cole Over 1.5 (-141) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.42 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.77, ERA 3.44)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 53 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .216 | OPS .755
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.5%, L7 21.0%, season 21.7%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 24.5%/53 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (6/6); lineup K% 20.8% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Emmet Sheehan Over 1.5 (-148) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+115	-
DK	1.5	-148	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 4.64)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 14 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .593
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.2%, L7 21.6%, season 22.0% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-155) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+120	-
DK	1.5	-155	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.10 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.87, ERA 3.62)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.8% / under 43.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gavin Williams: 28 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .308 | OPS .703
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 16.7%, L7 14.0%, season 19.2%, top-6 17.0%, BVP 21.4%/28 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6); lineup K% 15.9% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-146) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-175	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 1.60 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 1.97, ERA 1.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 25.7%, L7 24.6%, season 25.1% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 (-125) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+115	-
DK	2.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.32 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.96, ERA 3.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Merrill Kelly: 42 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .282 | OPS .846
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 17.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.1%, top-6 17.2%, BVP 19.1%/42 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.2% (6/6); lineup K% 17.2% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Burns Under 2.5 (-185) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.10 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.62, ERA 2.84)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.1% / under 59.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Chase Burns: 41 PA | K% 39.0% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .210 | OPS .610
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.7%, L7 18.7%, season 23.9%, BVP 39.0%/41 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 17/20 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-185) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Jax Over 1.5 (-137) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.47, ERA 3.99)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Griffin Jax: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .300 | OPS .864
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.4%, L7 24.3%, season 23.8%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/28 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Cavalli Under 2.5 (-137) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.38 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.43, ERA 3.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.4 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 24 PA | K% 45.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .261 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.9%, L7 19.1%, season 21.3%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 45.8%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6); lineup K% 20.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/23 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Under 3.5 (-132) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	-101	-132	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.75 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.50, ERA 4.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 57 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 1.8% | AVG .236 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.0%, L7 27.4%, season 22.9%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 29.8%/57 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Walbert Urena Under 2.5 (-133) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.62 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 3.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 23.7%, L7 17.0%, season 20.9% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Keider Montero Under 2.5 (-103) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-129	-103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.99 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.47, ERA 3.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 3.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.8%, L7 23.8%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — JR Ritchie Under 2.5 (-162) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+122	-162	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.66 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.65, ERA 4.15)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 2.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs JR Ritchie: 24 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .227 | OPS .792
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 17.7%, season 21.2%, top-6 21.6%, BVP 25.0%/24 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 92 play(s) (B 92)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-483) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -483

Selected market: Over 22.2% / Under 77.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+322	-483	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Heavy juice (-483); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-403) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -403

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+274	-403	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Heavy juice (-403); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-424) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -424

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+287	-424	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/106 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 89/106 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-424); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-375) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/96 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 79/96 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-465) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -465 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -465

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -465 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+312	-465	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/93 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 70/93 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-465) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-600) diff 64.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .398
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/102 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 82/102 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-600) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-525) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.0% / Under 79.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -525 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+347	-525	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/97 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 75/97 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-525) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-539) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -530 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -539

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -530 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+355	-539	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+350	-575	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 80/103 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 80/103 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-539); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-319) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+222	-319	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/107 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 77/107 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-319) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-374) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -374 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -374

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -374 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+256	-374	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/103 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 36/47 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 84/103 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-374) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-549) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -549 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -549

Selected market: Over 20.4% / Under 79.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -549 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+361	-549	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.010
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/111 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 83/111 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-549) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-388) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -388

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+265	-388	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/108 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 88/108 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-388) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-517) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -517 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -517

Selected market: Over 21.3% / Under 78.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -517 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+342	-517	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/107 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 78/107 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-517) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-247) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+175	-247	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/103 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 77/103 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-247); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-364) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -364

Selected market: Over 26.7% / Under 73.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+250	-364	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .611
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/101 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 85/101 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-364); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-369) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -369

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+253	-369	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/107 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 79/107 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-369) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Rojas Under 0.5 (-620) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -620

Selected market: Over 18.9% / Under 81.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+340	-560	-
DK	0.5	+397	-620	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-620) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-501) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -501

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+333	-501	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-501); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luke Maile Under 0.5 (-446) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -446 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -446

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -446 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+300	-446	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-446) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-334) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -334

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+231	-334	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-334); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (-110) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
DK	0.5	-110	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/104 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 22/50 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 47/104 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.59

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-432) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -432

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+292	-432	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/106 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 85/106 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-432) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-530) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -530 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -530

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -530 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+349	-530	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-530) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-293) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -290; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+205	-293	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-293) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-351) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -351

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+242	-351	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-351) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-396) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+270	-396	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-396) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-374) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -374 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -374

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -374 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+256	-374	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/103 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 81/103 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-374) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-267) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -267 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -267

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -267 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+188	-267	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.044
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/94 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/46 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 69/94 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-267); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-285) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+200	-285	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-285) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-185) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -185; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+133	-185	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-185); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-281) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 4 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-281) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-281) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/106 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 75/106 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-281) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-496) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -496 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -496

Selected market: Over 21.8% / Under 78.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -496 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+330	-496	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/106 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 75/106 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-496) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-333) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -333

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+231	-333	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/106 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 79/106 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-333) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-306) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	-
DK	0.5	+214	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/110 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 76/110 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-306) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-313) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -313

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+218	-313	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/110 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 78/110 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-313) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-369) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -369

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+253	-369	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 84/109 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-369) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-395) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -395 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -395

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -395 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+269	-395	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.71x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 2 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS 1.506
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 72/106 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-395) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-343) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -343

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+237	-343	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-343) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-400) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-230) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-230); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-346) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -346 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -346

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -346 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+239	-346	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/97 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 71/97 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-346); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-302) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -302

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+211	-302	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 70/104 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Heavy juice (-302); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-364) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -364

Selected market: Over 26.7% / Under 73.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+250	-364	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/90 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 64/90 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-364) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-234) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+166	-234	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-234); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Urias Under 0.5 (-277) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -277

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+195	-277	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-277); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-407) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -407

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+277	-407	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/112 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 87/112 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-407) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-252) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -252

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+178	-252	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/112 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 87/112 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-252) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-245) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+173	-245	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-245) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-278) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+196	-278	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-278) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-561) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -561 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -561

Selected market: Over 20.1% / Under 79.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -561 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+368	-561	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-561) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-405) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -405

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+275	-405	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/105 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 76/105 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-405) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-515) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -515

Selected market: Over 21.3% / Under 78.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+341	-515	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+350	-575	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.9% fallback
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-515) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-129) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-129	-107	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/100 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/51 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 23/49 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 40/100 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.53

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-352) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -352 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -352

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -352 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+243	-352	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/106 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 78/106 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-352) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-448) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -448

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+301	-448	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 82/108 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-448) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-386) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+264	-386	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/110 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 87/110 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-386); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-346) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -346

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+239	-346	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-346) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-416) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -416 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -416

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -416 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+282	-416	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-416) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-398) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -398 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -398

Selected market: Over 25.2% / Under 74.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -398 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+271	-398	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-398) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-174) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -174

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+125	-174	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-174) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-222) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+158	-222	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-222) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-294) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-294) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-230) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+164	-230	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-230) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-262) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+185	-262	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-262) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jahmai Jones Under 0.5 (-290) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-290); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-354) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+244	-354	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-354) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-337) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-337) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-300) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+209	-300	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-300) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-225) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.7% / Under 64.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+160	-225	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-225) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-378) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -378

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+259	-378	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 70/104 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-378) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-122) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -122

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-113	-122	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-242) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -242 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -242 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+172	-242	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.68x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 47 PA | 10/41 | HR 0 | K% 27.7% | BB% 6.4% | OPS .633
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 47 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/58 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 67/111 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-242) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-192) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -192

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+138	-192	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-192) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-160) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+116	-160	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-190) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+136	-190	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-190) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-214) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+153	-214	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-214) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-262) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+183	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+185	-262	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-262) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-240) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-240) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-376) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -376

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+258	-376	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-376) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-306) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+214	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-306) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-322) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+224	-322	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-322) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-346) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -346

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+239	-346	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-346); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-144) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -144

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	-
DK	0.5	+104	-144	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-417) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -417

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+283	-417	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-417) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-184) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -184

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+147	-197	-
DK	0.5	+132	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 74/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35

⚠ Heavy juice (-184); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-319) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+222	-319	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 61/87 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/43 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 61/87 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-319) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-294) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 69/108 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41

⚠ Heavy juice (-294); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-459) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -459 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -459

Selected market: Over 23.0% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -459 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+308	-459	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-459) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-220) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+157	-220	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-220) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-237) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+169	-237	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-237) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Manzardo Under 0.5 (-261) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+184	-261	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 71/101 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-261) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 6.5 6.5 (-128) edge 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (F5) | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 6 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 6 -104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	6	-116	-104	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	6	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	6	-120	-110	-
Caesars	6	-120	-110	-
MyBookie	6	-111	-110	-
FanDuel	6.5	-102	-128	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 5.3 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Kyle Freeland xFIP 4.18
Seth Lugo xFIP 4.50
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 115 (team 103)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 99 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kyle Freeland (LHP)
Away SP: Seth Lugo (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-144) edge 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 4 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	3.5	-144	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	4	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4	-110	-110	-
BetUS	4	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	4	-110	-120	-
Caesars	4	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	4	-102	-119	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Griffin Jax xFIP 3.47
Anthony Kay xFIP 4.80
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 119 (team 101)
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 109 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.14
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Griffin Jax (RHP)
Away SP: Anthony Kay (LHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ YRFI — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal Add Signal YRFI — YRFI (+130) edge 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +130

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.497
Grade B: YRFI effective edge 0.0631 after 0.0050 buffer
Gerrit Cole / Colin Rea announced and matched

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Boston Red Sox +1.5 1.5 (-136) edge 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Boston Red Sox 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -136

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Boston Red Sox 1.5 -130 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (25)

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+10.96/$100
✓ Cover prob 63.9% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 8.8% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 2 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -136 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Emmet Sheehan (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jake Bennett (LHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs LHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 35% (team 108)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (1058 signal(s))

▸ Batter Walks — 173 play(s) (A 9 | B 10 | C 154)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-365) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -365 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -365

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -365 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+251	-365	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-365); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-375) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+257	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-115) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
DK	0.5	-115	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/105 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/52 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 56/105 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.65

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-413) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -413

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+280	-413	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/106 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 82/106 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-413); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-385) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+263	-385	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+315	-515	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/111 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 84/111 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-385); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-378) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -378

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+259	-378	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 79/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-378); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-290) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+203	-290	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/108 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/54 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 61/108 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.52

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-290); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-294) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-294); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-308) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -308

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+215	-308	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-308); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-257) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+182	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/103 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 70/103 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-243) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+172	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/111 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 69/111 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-177) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+127	-177	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/111 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 70/111 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-205) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+147	-197	-
DK	0.5	+147	-205	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/94 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/46 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 57/94 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-244) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -244

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+178	-245	-
DK	0.5	+173	-244	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/88 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/46 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 26/42 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 54/88 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-192) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -192

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+139	-190	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+138	-192	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .422
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/107 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/52 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 55/107 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-316) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+220	-316	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-288) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+202	-288	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-281) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+197	-280	-
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/54 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 30/56 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 58/110 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-183) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -183

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -183 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+131	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 41/61 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 69/106 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+114) diff 47.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	-
DK	0.5	+114	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/111 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/55 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 53/111 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.60

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-369) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -369

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+254	-369	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/110 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 76/110 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-335) diff 45.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -335; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+232	-335	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/108 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 83/108 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-277) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -277

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+195	-277	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/91 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 65/91 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-422) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+286	-422	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Locklear Under 0.5 (-475) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-303) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+211	-303	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Michael King: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/104 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 83/104 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-219) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -219

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+156	-219	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/102 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 77/102 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Sullivan Under 0.5 (-491) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -491 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -491

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -491 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+327	-491	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-288) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+202	-288	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+270) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +270 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +270

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !!✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 3.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 56/110 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 24.5% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+299) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +299 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +299

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +299 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+299	-444	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: !!✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 3.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 56/110 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 24.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-163) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-163	+117	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: !!✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 3.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 56/110 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-505) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -480 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -505

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -480 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+335	-505	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 80/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-343) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -343

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+237	-343	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-371) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+254	-371	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-304) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+212	-304	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Rogers Under 0.5 (-464) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -464

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+311	-464	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-408) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -408

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+278	-408	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/104 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 31/49 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 71/104 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-167) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -167

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	-
DK	0.5	+120	-167	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-299) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -299

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+209	-299	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-292) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+205	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-325) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+226	-325	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-310) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+216	-310	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-157) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -157

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -157; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+114	-157	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-339) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -339 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -339

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -339 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+234	-339	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-243) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+172	-243	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-315) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+220	-315	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-280) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-525) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-332) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/86 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/40 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 59/86 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-397) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -397

Selected market: Over 25.2% / Under 74.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+271	-397	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/98 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 71/98 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-339) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -339

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+234	-339	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 81/110 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-233) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+165	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/101 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-367) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -367

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+252	-367	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/101 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (-107) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -107

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	-
DK	0.5	-107	-129	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 20/52 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 50/107 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-358) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 27.0% / Under 73.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+246	-358	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/95 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 71/95 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-597) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -597

Selected market: Over 19.3% / Under 80.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+388	-597	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-363) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -363

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+249	-363	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-311) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -311

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+216	-311	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-254) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -254 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -254

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -254 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+180	-254	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-159) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -159

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -159; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+115	-159	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-256) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+181	-256	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Robles Under 0.5 (-471) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -471

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+315	-471	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-445) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -445

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+300	-445	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-468) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -468

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+314	-468	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-342) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -342

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+236	-342	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-595) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -595 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -595

Selected market: Over 19.4% / Under 80.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -595 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+387	-595	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Everson Pereira Under 0.5 (-441) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -441 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -441

Selected market: Over 23.6% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -441 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+297	-441	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-410) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -410 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -410

Selected market: Over 24.7% / Under 75.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -410 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+279	-410	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-333) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -333

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+231	-333	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-407) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -407 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -407

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -407 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+276	-407	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-266) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+187	-266	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-265) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/102 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 26/51 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 62/102 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-750) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 20.5% / Under 79.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-360) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -360 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -360

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -360 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+248	-360	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Romy Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-450) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-442) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -442 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -442

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -442 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+298	-442	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-480) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -480 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -480

Selected market: Over 22.3% / Under 77.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -480 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+321	-480	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-325) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -325; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+226	-325	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-313) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -313 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -313

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -313 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+218	-313	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-226) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+161	-226	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-407) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -407 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -407

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -407 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+277	-407	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Enrique Hernandez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.2% / Under 80.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-450) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-450) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-200) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-374) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -374 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -374

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -374 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+257	-374	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/108 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 30/54 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 68/108 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-549) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -549 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -549

Selected market: Over 20.4% / Under 79.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -549 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+361	-549	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Williamson Under 0.5 (-376) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -376

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+258	-376	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Vazquez Under 0.5 (-511) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -511

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+339	-511	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Allen Under 0.5 (-561) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -561

Selected market: Over 20.2% / Under 79.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+367	-561	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+122) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +122

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+127	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+122	-169	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 63.6% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 20/55 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 51/112 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-373) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+256	-373	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-379) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -379 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -379

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -379 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+259	-379	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-442) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -442 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -442

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -442 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+298	-442	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-422) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+286	-422	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Malgeri Under 0.5 (-355) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -355

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+244	-355	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-283) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+198	-283	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-311) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -311

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+217	-311	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-232) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+165	-232	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (+362) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +362 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +362

Selected market: Over 20.4% / Under 79.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +362 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+362	-551	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: !!✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/87 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/42 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 14/45 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 35/87 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.57

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 21.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 21.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-321) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+223	-321	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 69/108 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-255) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+180	-255	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-417) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -417

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+283	-417	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-303) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+211	-303	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-447) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -447 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -447

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -447 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+301	-447	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-262) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+185	-262	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-258) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	-
DK	0.5	+182	-258	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-115) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-120	-115	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-162) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+117	-162	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-225) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -225 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+161	-225	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/47 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 62/99 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jhostynxon Garcia Under 0.5 (-800) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-538) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -538 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -538

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -538 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+354	-538	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-502) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -502 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -502

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -502 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+334	-502	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-547) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -547

Selected market: Over 20.5% / Under 79.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+359	-547	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 (-425) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -425 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+288	-425	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+145) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+145	-203	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/92 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/47 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter Walks: 26/45 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Walks: 51/92 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-348) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+240	-348	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 78/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+125) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+125	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .857
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/82 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/41 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.68 | Away Batter Walks: 18/41 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 40/82 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-318) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -318 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -318

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -318 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+221	-318	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/104 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 62/104 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-264) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -264

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+186	-264	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Michael King: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .967
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/106 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 78/106 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-360) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -360 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -360

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -360 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -360; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+248	-360	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 72/107 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-346) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -346

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+239	-346	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/110 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 74/110 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-176) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -176 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+127	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/102 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/52 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 61/102 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-164) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+123	-164	-
DK	0.5	+119	-164	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/100 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 67/100 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-297) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+208	-297	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/84 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/39 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 51/84 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 (-120) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-120	-115	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/99 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Walks: 26/47 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Walks: 61/99 over 0.5 (62%), avg 0.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-189) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -189

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+136	-182	-
DK	0.5	+136	-189	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/87 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 28/44 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 56/87 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+122) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +122

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+122	-170	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 33/81 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/40 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.68 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 33/81 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (+300) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +325 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +300

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+300	-445	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 33/81 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/40 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.68 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 33/81 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 23.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+148) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+148	-208	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.83 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 63/110 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-324) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -324

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+225	-324	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.34x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/105 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 75/105 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-243) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+172	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/76 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/38 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 56/76 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-250) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+177	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 31/48 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 71/103 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-257) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+182	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/105 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 75/105 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Over 0.5 (+114) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+114	-158	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 24/53 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 48/110 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (+105) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	-
DK	0.5	+105	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/99 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/51 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 20/48 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 38/99 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-224) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+150	-205	-
DK	0.5	+160	-224	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/107 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/51 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 62/107 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-279) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	-
DK	0.5	+196	-279	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/56 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 68/110 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-367) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -367

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+252	-367	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.32x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 73/105 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-216) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+154	-216	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 65/105 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-171) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+123	-171	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/94 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 25/44 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 59/94 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+146) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +146

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+146	-205	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/58 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 18/52 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 43/110 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-182) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -182

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -182 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+131	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 70/105 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-566) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -566 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -566

Selected market: Over 20.0% / Under 80.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -566 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+370	-566	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-315) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+219	-315	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (+143) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+143	-199	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.37x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.111
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/104 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/50 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 17/54 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 33/104 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-160) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+129	-173	-
DK	0.5	+116	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/80 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/47 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 22/33 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 51/80 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-170) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+123	-170	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 31/53 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 72/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Over 0.5 (+137) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+137	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Michael King: 15 PA | 5/11 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 26.7% | OPS 1.600
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/53 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 23/58 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 41/111 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+218) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +218 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +218

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +218 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-280	-
DK	0.5	+218	-313	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 46/109 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 21/54 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 46/109 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.55

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-233) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+165	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/105 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 29/54 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 67/105 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+167) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +167

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+167	-235	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/103 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/50 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 16/53 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 41/103 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-258) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+182	-258	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 27/53 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 52/101 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (+134) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +134

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+121	-162	-
DK	0.5	+134	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/51 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 48/107 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-208) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -208

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+149	-208	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS 1.122
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 71/110 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-202) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+145	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 8 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 70/106 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-546) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -546

Selected market: Over 20.5% / Under 79.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+359	-546	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 8 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 70/106 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-215) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+154	-215	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/102 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 72/102 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-181) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -181

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+130	-181	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/104 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 69/104 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (+162) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +162

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+162	-228	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 28/80 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/40 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 13/40 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 28/80 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (+135) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+135	-188	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/107 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/55 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 41/107 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 (+196) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +196 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +196

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +196 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+196	-278	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 39/110 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/59 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 21/51 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 39/110 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-217) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -217

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+155	-217	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/103 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 72/103 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+161) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +161

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+161	-227	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/108 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/54 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 41/108 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+129) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+129	-180	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/107 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 20/52 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 46/107 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.51

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (+123) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+123	-170	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/91 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/38 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 20/53 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 37/91 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-670) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -670 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -670

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -670 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+426	-670	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 25 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 16.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS .507
BVP walk adjustment: 1.13x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/91 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/46 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 55/91 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-206) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+147	-206	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 25 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 16.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS .507
BVP walk adjustment: 1.13x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/91 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/46 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 55/91 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-193) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+139	-193	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/112 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 28/55 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 68/112 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Over 0.5 (+146) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +146

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+146	-204	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/108 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/56 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 15/52 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 33/108 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-233) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+165	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.042
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/103 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 31/48 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 68/103 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-271) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	-
DK	0.5	+190	-271	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.042
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/103 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 31/48 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 68/103 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 225 play(s) (A 8 | B 37 | C 180)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-153) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	1.5	-162	+120	-
DK	1.5	-153	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.412, xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 8 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/106 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/55 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.73 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 62/106 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -153 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-133) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.369, xSLG 0.486 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/94 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 47/94 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.01

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-143) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.04x
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 33/52 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 70/108 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-152) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-152	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/100 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 29/50 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 52/100 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-142) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.376 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.010
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-128) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.04x
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/87 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 40/87 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-126) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.02x
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 59/112 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-125) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/107 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 47/107 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eddy Alvarez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 87.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 87.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.61
Base projection 2.61 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.448, xSLG 0.700 (50 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 3.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/110 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 over 1.5 (69%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 60/110 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.61

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.1% (1 books) — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+119) diff 87.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 87.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.61
Base projection 2.61 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.448, xSLG 0.700 (50 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 3.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/110 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 over 1.5 (69%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 60/110 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.61

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-104) diff 85.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 85.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.387, xSLG 0.560 (44 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 31/61 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter HRR: 54/106 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.35

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+101) diff 70.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.523, xSLG 0.742 (27 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/107 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/55 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 61/107 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.12

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-140) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-140	+106	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.367 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/110 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 59/110 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-137) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.356 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-126) diff 61.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.500 (42 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/104 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 51/104 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-148) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-148	+111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.383 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/81 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 38/81 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-118) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.323 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/111 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 64/111 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-161) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-161	+121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.441, xSLG 0.602 (21 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS 1.122
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 61/110 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-147) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.400, xSLG 0.563 (30 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-115) diff 45.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.304 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-116) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 48/105 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-141) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.417 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/54 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.54 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (-120) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.235, xSLG 0.242 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/80 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/40 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 39/80 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-134) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.272 (38 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 54/105 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Starling Marte Over 1.5 (-146) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-146	+110	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.246 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/106 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 58/106 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-125) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .857
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/82 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/41 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 39/82 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-116) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-110	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 43/80 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/47 over 1.5 (62%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 43/80 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-118) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.239 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/111 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 57/111 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-126) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/108 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 57/108 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Under 2.5 (-118) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	2.5	-113	-118	-
DK	2.5	-113	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.202, xSLG 0.274 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/104 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 43/55 under 2.5 (78%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 75/104 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Young Over 1.5 (+110) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.416, xSLG 0.456 (31 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Over 1.5 (-127) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-127	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.312 (60 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/103 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 42/103 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (-144) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
DK	1.5	-144	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.346 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 46/97 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 46/97 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (-133) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — John Rave Over 1.5 (-126) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-140) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-110) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 45/106 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Under 1.5 (-182) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+140	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	-195	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+137	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-130) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (-122) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+101) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.02x
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Owen Caissie Over 1.5 (+125) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-142) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-112) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-116) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+105) diff 57.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.434, xSLG 0.575 (23 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/84 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/39 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 32/45 over 1.5 (71%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 50/84 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (+136) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.383 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/81 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 38/81 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+109) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.425, xSLG 0.607 (57 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/111 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 63/111 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-101) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.464 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 15 PA | 5/11 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 26.7% | OPS 1.600
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 58/111 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-150) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.331 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+108) diff 51.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.439, xSLG 0.635 (26 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 54/104 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-101) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.452, xSLG 0.628 (38 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-108) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.307 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/110 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 53/110 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+127) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.185 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 25 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 16.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS .507
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/91 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/46 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.43 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 54/91 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.31

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-158) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	2.5	+115	-154	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.185 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 25 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 16.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS .507
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/91 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/46 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.43 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 54/91 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.31

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-120) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.299 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/104 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/49 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 58/104 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+108) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.515 (52 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/102 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 52/102 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-110) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.366 (81 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.042
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (-106) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.366 (81 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.042
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-106) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-106	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.577 (35 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/100 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 27/49 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 48/100 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-126) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
Base projection 2.40 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.290 (51 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.54 | Day Batter HRR: 63/104 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-114) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.268 (58 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/111 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/55 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 62/111 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-106) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.528 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (-106) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.341 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-107) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.415 (77 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+126) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/104 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 51/104 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-151) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-151	+113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.288 (30 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/76 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 25/38 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 45/76 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+107) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.325 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/90 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 46/90 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+101) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.246 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/106 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 58/106 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+111) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-155	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.246 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/106 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 58/106 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-106) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.384 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .611
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/101 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 34/56 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 55/101 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-134) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.456 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 58/110 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-104) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.359 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/107 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 57/107 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Under 2.5 (-164) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-165	-
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+126	-170	-
DK	2.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-107) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.431 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 4 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 55/106 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+122) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-155	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.358 (60 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 60/106 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (+106) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.433 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 40/91 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 40/91 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (-108) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.534 (20 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/52 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 55/106 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+117) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.470 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-121) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.422 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/108 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 60/108 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.376, xSLG 0.557 (29 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/101 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 58/101 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.376, xSLG 0.557 (29 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/101 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 58/101 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+112) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.361, xSLG 0.477 (51 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/106 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 35/52 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.63 | Day Batter HRR: 62/106 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-101) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.245 (65 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 63.6% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/112 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 63/112 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+100) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.234 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 27/48 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Under 2.5 (-157) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-140	-
BetOnline	2.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+107	-143	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.77 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-145) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.355 (30 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/102 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 56/102 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+103) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 47 PA | 10/41 | HR 0 | K% 27.7% | BB% 6.4% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 47 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/111 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 60/111 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+130) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.299 (55 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/107 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 57/107 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.94

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-106) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.219 (57 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+111) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Under 2.5 (-120) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	2.5	-110	-121	-
DK	2.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.81 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Under 2.5 (-146) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+106	-141	-
DK	2.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.81 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Under 2.5 (-165) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.85 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.378 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/104 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/50 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 37/54 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 74/104 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-109) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.416, xSLG 0.456 (31 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+124) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.281 (28 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .967
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+137) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-170	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.339 (76 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+107) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.147, xSLG 0.111 (23 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/107 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 58/107 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+112) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.312 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/97 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 44/97 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Tena Over 1.5 (+110) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+101) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+101	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.391 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+123) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.274 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+107) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.326 (61 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/87 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 42/87 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Amed Rosario Over 1.5 (+119) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-112) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.220, xSLG 0.279 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-101) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Under 2.5 (-148) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
DK	2.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.05 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.499 (52 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/57 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 35/53 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 73/110 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (+115) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.293 (14 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/107 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 47/107 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+122) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/102 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 51/102 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+132) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-170	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.292 (56 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/110 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 53/110 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Under 2.5 (-158) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	2.5	+106	-141	-
DK	2.5	+118	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.381 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/49 under 2.5 (63%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 39/55 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 70/104 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Kurtz Under 2.5 (-121) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	2.5	-104	-129	-
DK	2.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.08 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.328 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 58/99 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 58/99 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (+107) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+132) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (+133) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.355 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+120) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.560 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Under 2.5 (-166) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	-
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	2.5	+120	-162	-
DK	2.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.09 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.342 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/107 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/55 under 2.5 (71%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 31/52 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 70/107 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+124) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.327 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/97 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 43/97 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.91

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-151) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-151	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.227 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 51/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-116) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.235, xSLG 0.245 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/108 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 52/108 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Under 2.5 (-127) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	2.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	2.5	-112	-120	-
DK	2.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.11 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.582 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/51 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 39/52 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 75/103 under 2.5 (73%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Arias Over 1.5 (+128) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Manzardo Over 1.5 (+100) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.262 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/101 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/51 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 37/101 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Vilade Over 1.5 (+127) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+104) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.296 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/105 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 51/105 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edouard Julien Over 1.5 (-122) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Over 1.5 (+118) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (-133) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.444 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/110 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 53/110 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+112) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+111	-152	-
DK	2.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 2.82 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.61
Base projection 2.61 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.448, xSLG 0.700 (50 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 3.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/110 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/55 over 2.5 (62%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 19/55 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 53/110 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.61

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonny Deluca Over 1.5 (+108) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+119) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+100) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.358 (66 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/102 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 46/102 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Patrick Bailey Over 1.5 (+117) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Petey Halpin Over 1.5 (+130) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Tolbert Over 1.5 (-122) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetMGM	2.5	+135	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-141) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.158, xSLG 0.206 (31 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/105 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 59/105 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+120) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Trammell Over 1.5 (+119) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-117) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.383 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .398
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/102 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 69/102 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+101) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.417 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 48/105 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+136) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.189 (53 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/105 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 49/105 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (-116) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-149) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.256 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/87 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 54/87 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+122) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Sullivan Over 1.5 (-113) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Williamson Over 1.5 (+110) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Urias Over 1.5 (-104) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (-104) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 47/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Under 2.5 (-149) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+114	-152	-
DK	2.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.28 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.463 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 39/54 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 72/108 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Under 2.5 (-146) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.67 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
DK	2.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.28 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.416, xSLG 0.617 (58 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.67 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/48 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 under 2.5 (47%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 53/101 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+121) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jahmai Jones Over 1.5 (+120) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-162) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.347 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter HRR: 69/105 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gavin Sheets Under 1.5 (-170) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.348 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.111
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/104 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter HRR: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 68/104 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+105) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.257 (72 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 50/104 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+103) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-122	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.453 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/105 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 51/105 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Maile Over 1.5 (+101) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-130	-
DK	1.5	+101	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Rojas Over 1.5 (+104) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+129) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-130) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.98x
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 29/52 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 67/107 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Fortes Over 1.5 (+123) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-108) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-129) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+110) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dalton Rushing Over 1.5 (+124) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-111) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Enrique Hernandez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+105) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Under 2.5 (-146) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	2.5	+106	-141	-
DK	2.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.35 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.400, xSLG 0.568 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/52 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 30/50 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 63/102 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+105) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (+123) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.291 (53 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Under 2.5 (-168) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	2.5	+121	-162	-
DK	2.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.38 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.450, xSLG 0.686 (23 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.044
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2.25 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/94 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/46 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 36/48 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 64/94 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-116) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.341 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 51/108 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.454, xSLG 0.536 (23 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 33/93 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 19/45 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 33/93 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (-129) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-129) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (-109) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (-107) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Malgeri Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-160	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (-148) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-148	+111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (-108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Donovan Walton Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-121) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (-113) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (-118) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Over 1.5 (+118) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 2.5 (-115) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.59 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.451, xSLG 0.654 (23 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/102 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/50 over 2.5 (36%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 19/52 over 2.5 (36%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 37/102 over 2.5 (36%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Under 2.5 (-136) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	2.5	-105	-127	-
DK	2.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.357 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/96 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/47 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.62 | Away Batter HRR: 35/49 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 62/96 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Over 1.5 (+117) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.398, xSLG 0.619 (48 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/110 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/55 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 44/110 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.43

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 51/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-130) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-130) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — David Hamilton Over 1.5 (+126) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+139) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (+112) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (-101) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Jarvis Over 1.5 (+124) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+135) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.234 (33 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/104 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 51/104 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+131) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.218 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.187, xSLG 0.197 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 98, HR vulnerability 2 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 55/108 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-110) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-117) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+101) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+101	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (-109) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+109) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+109	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Yastrzemski Over 1.5 (+129) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +129; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Under 1.5 (-150) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.298 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 66/110 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+116) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+112) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-150) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.271 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/98 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/51 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 62/98 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-112) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -107 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-102) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-114) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-117	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Romy Gonzalez Over 1.5 (+110) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (-107) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+112) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-102) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+105) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Under 1.5 (-128) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+105) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.95x
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joe Mack Over 1.5 (+119) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.95x
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ K Prop — 21 play(s) (B 8 | C 13)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Stock Over 3.5 (-105) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 38.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.0% / under 52.0%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Umpire: Chris Conroy — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.0%, L7 19.9%, season 21.6%, top-6 17.1% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.1% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: K: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (1 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 (-112) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 7.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 7.38 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 7 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 7.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	7.5	-109	-119	Recommended
BetRivers	7.5	-121	-110	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-120	-110	-
DK	7.5	-112	-114	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	7.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 32.2% vs 17% min; cushion +2.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 3/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Zack Wheeler: K/9 12.7, proj 9.9K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 23.3% | xwOBA 0.254 | top pitch: Split-Finger (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tripp Gibson — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 72 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .277 | OPS .778
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 72 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.9%, L7 24.5%, season 24.2%, BVP 27.8%/72 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.30 | Season Avg 7.24
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
K% trend: support +12.7 ppts (recent 43.8% vs season 31.1%, proj adj +6.4%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (8 books) | split consensus 43% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (8 books) | split consensus 43% (8 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 9.5 (+103) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 8.5 -185 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 9.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 9.21 | selected line 9.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 9.5 at 5 books | 8.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 8.5 -185 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8.5	-185	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	8.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	9.5	+112	-145	-
BetRivers	9.5	-103	-130	-
Bovada Direct	9.5	+105	-135	-
DK	9.5	+103	-131	Selected
FanDuel	9.5	+106	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 11.8K vs line 9.5; DIFF% 24.0% vs 17% min; cushion +2.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.5% / under 53.5%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 14.5, proj 11.8K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 38.7% | put-away% 32.2% | xwOBA 0.218 | top pitch: Curveball (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 37.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 25.7%, L7 24.6%, season 25.1%, active roster 25.7%/6 hitters (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 25.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 9.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.70 | Season Avg 9.25
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 9.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
K% trend: support +5.0 ppts (recent 45.6% vs season 40.6%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Landen Roupp Over 4.5 (-148) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-156	+120	-
BetRivers	4.5	-141	+107	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-148	+116	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-140	+110	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-145	+110	-
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.53K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Landen Roupp: K/9 8.1, proj 5.0K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 80 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .672
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 80 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.2%, L7 17.8%, season 22.2%, BVP 22.5%/80 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.2 ppts (recent 16.8% vs season 24.0%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Matthew Liberatore Over 3.5 (-142) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+117	-
BetRivers	3.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-142	+112	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-158	+124	-
Fanatics	3.5	-150	+115	-
BetMGM	4.5	+140	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.4% / under 44.6%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Matthew Liberatore: K/9 9.6, proj 3.9K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jordan Baker — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 24.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Liberatore: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .370 | OPS .935
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.8%, L7 15.0%, season 19.3%, top-6 17.8%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.7%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 15.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.8% (4/6); lineup K% 18.2% (6/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.76
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +5.4 ppts (recent 27.3% vs season 21.9%, proj adj +2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 (-137) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-141	+109	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	Recommended
DK	4.5	-137	+107	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-145	+110	-
BetMGM	5.5	+135	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.5% / under 45.5%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 7.3, proj 4.9K over 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.7% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Conroy — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 25.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sandy Alcantara: 91 PA | K% 13.2% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .277 | OPS .752
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 91 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.2%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 13.2%/91 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
K% trend: support +3.9 ppts (recent 22.3% vs season 18.4%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Taj Bradley Under 6.5 (-117) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/7 OVER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+175	-250	-
BetMGM	6.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	-116	-111	-
BetRivers	6.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-109	-117	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	6.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 4/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Taj Bradley: K/9 10.4, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.1 outs/6.0 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.7% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Cutter (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Cutter: 22.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 51 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .217 | OPS .794
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.2%, L7 24.5%, season 23.1%, BVP 19.6%/51 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.62
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — George Kirby Under 5.5 (-122) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+180	-260	-
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+104	-135	-
BetRivers	5.5	-114	-117	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-105	-122	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.08K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.2% / under 51.8%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
George Kirby: K/9 8.2, proj 5.4K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Sweeper (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 53 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .314 | OPS .849
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.5%, L7 19.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.8%/53 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Anthony Kay Under 4.5 (-165) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 4 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+120	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+129	-165	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+132	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 18.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.83K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.2% / under 58.8%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.60
Anthony Kay: K/9 7.9, proj 3.7K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Estabrook — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Sweeper: 23.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Anthony Kay: 25 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 24.0% | AVG .278 | OPS .924
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 17.0%, L7 24.7%, season 19.3%, top-6 16.5%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 16.5% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 3.95
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
K% trend: support +3.4 ppts (recent 22.0% vs season 18.6%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 (+125) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +125

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	4.5	-162	+120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	4.5	-160	+124	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+124	-161	-
DK	5.5	+125	-159	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.84K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.0% / under 58.0%); own-line consensus 3/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.57
Cade Cavalli: K/9 9.9, proj 6.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.4 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brian Walsh — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 27% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 24 PA | K% 45.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .261 | OPS .598
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.9%, L7 19.1%, season 21.3%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 45.8%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Atlanta Braves 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.4%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6); lineup K% 20.6% (6/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.65
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (8 books) | split consensus 43% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 5.5 (-131) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-110	-118	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	-127	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	-
DK	5.5	-131	+103	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-120	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 14.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.82K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Peter Lambert: K/9 9.3, proj 6.3K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Todd Tichenor — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Peter Lambert: 60 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .927
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.6%, L7 29.0%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.3%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.56
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +3.6 ppts (recent 26.9% vs season 23.3%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Keider Montero Over 3.5 (+123) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	+120	-156	-
BetRivers	3.5	+120	-159	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+123	-158	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+116	-148	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Keider Montero: K/9 8.0, proj 3.9K over 4.8 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 3.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.7% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.8%, L7 23.8%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.43
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
K% trend: support +7.8 ppts (recent 25.6% vs season 17.8%, proj adj +3.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — JR Ritchie Under 4.5 (-159) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 4.07 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	3.5	-162	+120	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	-
BetOnline	4.5	+126	-164	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+124	-159	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+134	-164	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.1% / under 57.9%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
JR Ritchie: K/9 8.4, proj 4.1K over 4.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 2.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brian Walsh — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Curveball: 36.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs JR Ritchie: 24 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .227 | OPS .792
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 17.7%, season 21.2%, top-6 21.6%, BVP 25.0%/24 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.6% (4/6); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.77
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 (-132) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-123	-105	-
BetRivers	3.5	-127	-105	-
DK	3.5	-132	+104	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-118	-108	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.7% / under 46.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.6, proj 3.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.3% | put-away% 14.1% | xwOBA 0.397 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jonathan Parra — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Slider: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Merrill Kelly: 42 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .282 | OPS .846
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 17.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.1%, top-6 17.2%, BVP 19.1%/42 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.3%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.2% (6/6); lineup K% 17.2% (6/9); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.74
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5
K% trend: support +6.6 ppts (recent 21.6% vs season 15.0%, proj adj +3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 4.5 (-164) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+124	-161	-
BetRivers	4.5	+120	-159	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+128	-164	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	-
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Seth Lugo: K/9 6.9, proj 4.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.2% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Cutter (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Edwin Moscoso — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Cutter: 17.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 57 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 1.8% | AVG .236 | OPS .572
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.0%, L7 27.4%, season 22.9%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 29.8%/57 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.5% (4/6); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 4.36
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 (-160) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -160

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+126	-164	-
BetRivers	4.5	+130	-177	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+125	-160	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Kyle Freeland: K/9 7.8, proj 4.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Edwin Moscoso — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Curveball: 25.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .255 | OPS .603
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.1%, L7 19.3%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.0%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.0% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.25
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Griffin Jax Over 6.5 (+120) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	6.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+110	-145	-
DK	6.5	+120	-153	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+110	-140	-
Fanatics	6.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 5.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Griffin Jax: K/9 10.3, proj 6.8K over 4.9 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 24.7% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Changeup (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Estabrook — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Griffin Jax: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .300 | OPS .864
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.4%, L7 24.3%, season 23.8%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 3/28 (11%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 3.29
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +2.71 vs season
K% trend: support +5.2 ppts (recent 30.9% vs season 25.7%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 (+106) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	6.5	+107	-139	Recommended
BetRivers	6.5	+100	-132	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	-
DK	6.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+102	-130	-
Fanatics	6.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 2.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Gerrit Cole: K/9 10.2, proj 6.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Slider (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Scott Barry — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 53 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .216 | OPS .755
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.5%, L7 21.0%, season 21.7%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 24.5%/53 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 88%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.7% (6/6); lineup K% 20.8% (8/9); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.08
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5
K% trend: support +6.6 ppts (recent 32.8% vs season 26.2%, proj adj +3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs RHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 (-112) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	-
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-114	-114	-
BetRivers	5.5	-113	-118	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-114	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-108	-118	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Kyle Bradish: K/9 7.9, proj 5.4K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tripp Gibson — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Bradish: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .210 | OPS .654
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.9%, L7 20.5%, season 23.7%, top-6 24.1%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 23.3%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 77%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 24.1% (5/6); lineup K% 23.4% (8/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -6.1 ppts (recent 16.7% vs season 22.8%, proj adj -3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Mitch Keller Under 4.5 (+105) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +105

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	-
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+105	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+105	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-133	+105	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.9% / under 46.1%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Mitch Keller: K/9 6.7, proj 4.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: Sweeper (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jacob Metz — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Mitch Keller: 106 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .631
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 106 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.8%, split 23.7%, L7 33.5%, season 25.2%, top-6 24.4%, BVP 20.8%/106 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 24.4% (4/6); 3/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.14
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gage Jump Over 5.5 (+104) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	-102	-127	-
BetRivers	5.5	-108	-122	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	+104	-133	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Gage Jump: K/9 10.2, proj 5.5K over 4.9 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Slider: 30.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 24.9%, L7 17.8%, season 22.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 16 play(s) (B 1 | C 15)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Gerrit Cole Under 1.5 (-113) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.3721589039521371 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.6 IP (BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 53 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .216 | OPS .755
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.5%, L7 21.0%, season 21.7%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 24.5%/53 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 11.4%, L7 8.3%, season 10.9%, BVP 3.8%/53 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (6/6); lineup K% 20.8% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kyle Freeland Over 0.5 (-230) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 65.4% / Under 34.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 65.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-230	+171	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.7908534495333386 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.20 over 5.2 IP (BB% 4.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 65.4% / under 34.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 65.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.79x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .255 | OPS .603
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.1%, L7 19.3%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.0%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 5.5%, split 5.3%, L7 6.6%, season 8.3%, BVP 0.0%/52 PA (adj 0.79x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jake Bennett Under 1.5 (-173) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2302521510911524 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.7 IP (BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.7% / under 59.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.2%, L7 21.8%, season 20.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.1%, L7 6.1%, season 10.0% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Griffin Jax Over 1.5 (+103) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.7621761510499299 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Griffin Jax: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .300 | OPS .864
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.4%, L7 24.3%, season 23.8%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.6%, L7 8.5%, season 8.9%, BVP 9.1%/22 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/28 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gage Jump Under 2.5 (-209) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -209

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -209 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0764667307404174 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 36.7% / under 63.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 24.9%, L7 17.8%, season 22.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 11.5%, L7 8.6%, season 9.2% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sandy Alcantara Over 1.5 (+115) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67791872703461 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 6.3 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sandy Alcantara: 91 PA | K% 13.2% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .277 | OPS .752
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.2%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 13.2%/91 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.9%, L7 9.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.5%/91 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cade Cavalli Under 1.5 (-127) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.3657167696396657 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.4 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 24 PA | K% 45.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .261 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.9%, L7 19.1%, season 21.3%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 45.8%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.4%, L7 9.0%, season 8.0%, BVP 0.0%/24 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6); lineup K% 20.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — JR Ritchie Under 2.5 (-183) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.291647967854793 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.52 over 4.0 IP (BB% 12.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 2.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.5% / under 60.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs JR Ritchie: 24 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .227 | OPS .792
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 17.7%, season 21.2%, top-6 21.6%, BVP 25.0%/24 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 10.2%, L7 11.4%, season 9.1%, BVP 8.3%/24 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Max Scherzer Under 1.5 (-134) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.3788376819787267 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 3.5 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.5 IP (HIGH; season 3.5 IP/GS; recent 3.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Scherzer: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .869
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.5%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.4%, L7 8.6%, season 8.5%, BVP 7.1%/14 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/7 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Landen Roupp Under 2.5 (-194) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.307923706159046 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 5.2 IP (BB% 10.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.2% / under 61.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 80 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .672
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.2%, L7 17.8%, season 22.2%, BVP 22.5%/80 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.0%, L7 8.0%, season 9.2%, BVP 10.0%/80 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-160) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.0% / Under 43.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5707118096659356 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.6 IP (BB% 5.8%)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.0% / under 43.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 72 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .277 | OPS .778
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.9%, L7 24.5%, season 24.2%, BVP 27.8%/72 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 12.5%, L7 11.7%, season 10.3%, BVP 4.2%/72 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/17 (35%) | Season 6/17 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Emmet Sheehan Under 1.5 (-109) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4346120184721507 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 14 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .593
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.2%, L7 21.6%, season 22.0% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 6.9%, L7 9.0%, season 8.0% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Matthew Liberatore Over 1.5 (-144) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.555045407291362 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.86x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Liberatore: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .370 | OPS .935
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.8%, L7 15.0%, season 19.3%, top-6 17.8%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.5%, split 8.0%, L7 7.5%, season 7.4%, BVP 0.0%/29 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.8% (4/6); lineup K% 18.2% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-206) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+153	-206	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.4522101560195484 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 5.8 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.1 outs/6.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.0% / under 63.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 51 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .217 | OPS .794
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.2%, L7 24.5%, season 23.1%, BVP 19.6%/51 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 8.8%, L7 8.3%, season 8.8%, BVP 9.8%/51 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Seth Lugo Over 1.5 (+147) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+147	-196	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5270427524085095 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 37.9% / under 62.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 57 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 1.8% | AVG .236 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.0%, L7 27.4%, season 22.9%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 29.8%/57 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 8.7%, L7 6.6%, season 8.2%, BVP 1.8%/57 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Misiorowski Over 1.5 (+164) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+164	-221	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5257869444378012 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.6 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 35.5% / under 64.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 25.7%, L7 24.6%, season 25.1% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.6%, L7 7.8%, season 8.5% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 14 play(s) (B 1 | C 13)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 (-121) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-121	-109	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.78 over 6.3 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 3.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sandy Alcantara: 91 PA | K% 13.2% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .277 | OPS .752
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.2%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 13.2%/91 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Landen Roupp Under 2.5 (-136) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.69 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.70, ERA 4.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 80 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .672
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.2%, L7 17.8%, season 22.2%, BVP 22.5%/80 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Peter Lambert Under 2.5 (-117) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	-
DK	2.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.63 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.47, ERA 2.66)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Peter Lambert: 60 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .927
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.6%, L7 29.0%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.3%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gage Jump Under 2.5 (+104) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-138	+104	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.23 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.94, ERA 4.83)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 24.9%, L7 17.8%, season 22.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Bennett Under 2.5 (-102) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.23 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 2.77)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.2%, L7 21.8%, season 20.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Bradish Under 2.5 (-150) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.91 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.97, ERA 3.91)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Bradish: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .210 | OPS .654
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.9%, L7 20.5%, season 23.7%, top-6 24.1%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.1% (5/6); lineup K% 23.4% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Scherzer Over 2.5 (+109) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+109	-145	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.80 over 3.5 IP (xFIP 4.80, ERA 8.49)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.5 IP (HIGH; season 3.5 IP/GS; recent 3.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Scherzer: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .869
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.5%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.71 | Season Avg 3.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/7 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-140) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
DK	2.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.60 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 3.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.1 outs/6.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 51 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .217 | OPS .794
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.2%, L7 24.5%, season 23.1%, BVP 19.6%/51 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-145) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.50 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 2.74, ERA 3.04)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 72 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .277 | OPS .778
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.9%, L7 24.5%, season 24.2%, BVP 27.8%/72 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 (-163) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+122	-163	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.3 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.72 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.18, ERA 7.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .255 | OPS .603
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.1%, L7 19.3%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.0%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Liberatore Over 2.5 (+100) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.79 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 4.97)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Liberatore: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .370 | OPS .935
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.8%, L7 15.0%, season 19.3%, top-6 17.8%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.8% (4/6); lineup K% 18.2% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mitch Keller Over 2.5 (-130) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.88 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.51, ERA 4.77)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Mitch Keller: 106 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .631
Opponent K profile: composite 25.8%, split 23.7%, L7 33.5%, season 25.2%, top-6 24.4%, BVP 20.8%/106 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Under 2.5 (-147) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+111	-147	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.22 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 4.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kumar Rocker: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .278 | OPS .940
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.4%, L7 24.8%, season 21.7%, top-6 19.2%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Stock Under 2.5 (-210) Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.1% / under 62.9%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.0%, L7 19.9%, season 21.6%, top-6 17.1% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 29 play(s) (B 1 | C 28)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-253) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+187	-253	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+185	-250	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.249)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.308 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 12/43 (28%) | L5 8/23 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/108 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 80/108 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Tyler Soderstrom Under 1.5 (-252) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -252

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+186	-252	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.88 (AVG 0.242)
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.230 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 2/22 (9%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/99 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.88
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/47 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 39/52 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter Hits: 77/99 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.88

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Kurtz Under 1.5 (-256) diff 42.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+188	-256	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.256)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.301 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 1/28 (4%) | L5 0/11 (0%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/99 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 36/47 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter Hits: 73/99 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.91

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-227) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -227

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.81 (AVG 0.268)
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.295 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/31 (36%) | L5 6/16 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/104 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/50 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.82 | Away Batter Hits: 43/54 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Hits: 85/104 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Javier Baez Under 1.5 (-246) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-235	+175	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+181	-246	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-190) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Recommended
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-184) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
DK	1.5	+137	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.84 (AVG 0.215)
Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.202 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.84
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/49 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter Hits: 44/55 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Hits: 86/104 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-224) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
DK	1.5	+166	-224	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.83 (AVG 0.235)
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 6/36 (17%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/104 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/49 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 46/55 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Hits: 84/104 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Loftin Under 1.5 (-196) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Mickey Moniak Under 1.5 (-186) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Recommended
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Cole Carrigg Under 1.5 (-197) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Starling Marte Under 1.5 (-236) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+170	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Recommended
DK	1.5	+174	-236	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.253)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.260 (28 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 9/43 (21%) | L5 5/22 (23%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 76/106 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter Hits: 76/106 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-259) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Recommended
DK	1.5	+191	-259	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.283)
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 9/34 (26%) | L5 6/17 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/100 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 37/50 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 73/100 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jac Caglianone Under 1.5 (-180) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-450	+300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.89 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.363 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 5/36 (14%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/103 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.89
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 40/52 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter Hits: 79/103 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Riley Greene Under 1.5 (-261) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+192	-261	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.363 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 6/37 (16%) | L5 1/18 (6%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 77/110 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-256) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+189	-256	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.273)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.225 (30 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/45 (24%) | L5 5/23 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 54/76 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/38 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 25/38 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 54/76 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-246) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+182	-246	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.256)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.010
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter Hits: 80/111 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-265) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+195	-265	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.291)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.416 (58 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 12/40 (30%) | L5 9/19 (47%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/101 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 32/53 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 67/101 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 (-229) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+170	-229	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.268)
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.400 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 10/41 (24%) | L5 5/27 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/102 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 35/50 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 72/102 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Willi Castro Under 1.5 (-240) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+195	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+178	-240	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.262)
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.450 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.044
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Recent form: L10 9/36 (25%) | L5 5/16 (31%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 72/94 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/46 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 41/48 under 1.5 (85%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Hits: 72/94 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-248) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+183	-248	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.290)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.283 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 15/41 (37%) | L5 10/22 (46%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/107 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 79/107 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Hunter Goodman Under 1.5 (-227) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -227

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.258)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.451 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 10/37 (27%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/102 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/50 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter Hits: 39/52 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 77/102 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-164) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-450	+300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.291)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.316 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 10/46 (22%) | L5 3/22 (14%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/96 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter Hits: 39/49 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 68/96 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-205) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -205 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -205 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
DK	1.5	+153	-205	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	1.5	+170	-230	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.297)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.328 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 10/36 (28%) | L5 6/22 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/108 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 78/108 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-236) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+175	-236	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.441 (21 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS 1.122
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/110 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 79/110 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-249) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+184	-249	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.284)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.382 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 13/39 (33%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter Hits: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter Hits: 75/110 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-245) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -245

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+181	-245	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+180	-245	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.304)
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.412 (29 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 8 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 72/106 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-245) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -245

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+181	-245	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.29 (AVG 0.322)
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 3/21 (14%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 65/108 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-260) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+192	-260	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.31 (AVG 0.328)
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 14/41 (34%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/49 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter Hits: 63/104 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 289 play(s) (B 15 | C 250 | D 24)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 (-175) diff 253.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 253.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Availability — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 254% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Vilade Over 0.5 (-165) diff 241.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 242% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-140) diff 231.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-150	+112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 231.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-165) diff 230.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 230% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (-190) diff 229.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 229.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.407 (67 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/94 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/46 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 33/48 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 62/94 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.79

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Matchup, Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-200) diff 220.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-197	+145	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Availability — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-160) diff 220.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Availability — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-175) diff 220.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (+170) diff 220.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 34.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-155) diff 215.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-150	+112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Availability — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 (-183) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	Recommended
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.245 (65 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 63.6% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/112 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 34/55 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 68/112 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Under 1.5 (-175) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 71/107 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-200) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Under 1.5 (-182) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	Recommended
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 66/106 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-182) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+137	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.456 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/112 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 72/112 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 427.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 427.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.700 (50 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 3.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/55 over 0.5 (82%), avg 2.69 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 77/110 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.32

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 427% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+180) diff 427.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 427.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.700 (50 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 3.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/55 over 0.5 (82%), avg 2.69 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 77/110 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.32

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 427% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-155) diff 299.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 299.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 8 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/106 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/55 over 0.5 (78%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 76/106 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.80

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 299% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan De La Cruz Over 0.5 (-160) diff 297.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 297.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.185 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 25 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 16.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS .507
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/91 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/46 over 0.5 (74%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 30/45 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 64/91 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.00

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 297% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 (-165) diff 296.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 296.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.607 (57 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/54 over 0.5 (68%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 39/57 over 0.5 (68%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 76/111 over 0.5 (68%), avg 2.03

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 296% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (+150) diff 281.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.91 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 281.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.515 (52 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/102 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/52 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 30/50 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 67/102 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.88

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 281% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-135) diff 274.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-139	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 274.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/104 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 59/104 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.69

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 275% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (-200) diff 269.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 269.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.742 (27 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/55 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 72/107 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.60

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 270% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Petey Halpin Over 0.5 (-165) diff 257.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 257.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 258% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Arias Over 0.5 (-155) diff 257.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 257.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 258% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 (-155) diff 257.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 257.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 258% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (+100) diff 255.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 255.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.366 (81 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.042
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/103 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 35/48 over 0.5 (73%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 70/103 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.95

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 256% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 0.5 (-190) diff 253.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 253.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 254% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Tena Over 0.5 (-165) diff 253.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 253.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 254% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-135) diff 253.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 253.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 254% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 253.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 253.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/81 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/40 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 25/41 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 50/81 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.47

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 253% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 (-190) diff 253.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 253.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.635 (26 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/104 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/49 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 69/104 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.68

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 253% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-135) diff 247.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 247.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 248% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Caballero Over 0.5 (-150) diff 247.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 247.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 248% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Amed Rosario Over 0.5 (-185) diff 247.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+138	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 247.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 248% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-160) diff 247.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 247.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 248% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-105) diff 247.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	-
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 247.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 248% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Maile Over 0.5 (-185) diff 245.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 245.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 245% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 0.5 (-160) diff 245.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 245.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 245% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-165) diff 245.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 245.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 245% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-165) diff 245.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 245.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 245% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 0.5 (-175) diff 245.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 245.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 245% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 0.5 (+180) diff 243.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 243.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (60 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/106 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/54 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 39/52 over 0.5 (75%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 79/106 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.82

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 33.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 244% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Endy Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 242.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 242.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.557 (29 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/101 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/50 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 70/101 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.62

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 243% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonny Deluca Over 0.5 (-160) diff 241.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 242% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Fortes Over 0.5 (-140) diff 241.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 242% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Williamson Over 0.5 (-175) diff 241.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+126	-
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 242% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-160) diff 238.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.577 (35 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/100 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 60/100 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 239% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 0.5 (-175) diff 237.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 237.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.312 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/97 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 28/50 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 58/97 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.77

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 238% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 (-175) diff 235.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 235.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.246 (28 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/106 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 36/55 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 73/106 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.83

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 236% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Allen Over 0.5 (+240) diff 231.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +240

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 231.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Vazquez Over 0.5 (+260) diff 231.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 231.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 26.0% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 26.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-130) diff 230.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 230% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-125) diff 230.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 230% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-140) diff 228.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-135) diff 228.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-135) diff 228.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Romo Over 0.5 (-105) diff 228.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	0.5	+107	-140	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Everson Pereira Over 0.5 (+105) diff 228.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 39.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-150) diff 228.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 (+140) diff 226.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/108 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 68/108 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 38.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 227% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-150) diff 225.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (28 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .967
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/106 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 63/106 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.62

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (+220) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dalton Rushing Over 0.5 (+220) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (+260) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 35.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jahmai Jones Over 0.5 (+160) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Romy Gonzalez Over 0.5 (+160) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 35.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-123) diff 221.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-155) diff 220.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-160) diff 220.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.470 (42 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/103 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 63/103 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.43

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cameron Cauley Over 0.5 (+220) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 38.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (-200) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+132	-179	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-165) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-200) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-189	+143	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 (-200) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+145	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-175) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Malgeri Over 0.5 (+190) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-190) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-135) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-135) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 0.5 (-150) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-105) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Heineman Over 0.5 (+130) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 40.6% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-120) diff 209.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-135) diff 209.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (-120) diff 209.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-175) diff 209.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (-120) diff 209.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (+220) diff 209.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Rincones Jr. Over 0.5 (-118) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 0.5 (-160) diff 207.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 (-165) diff 207.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Robles Over 0.5 (-130) diff 207.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 0.5 (-135) diff 207.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (+100) diff 207.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (+100) diff 207.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	-
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	-
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-140	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-105) diff 207.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-108	-124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Weston Wilson Over 0.5 (+105) diff 207.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	0.5	-104	-129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-140) diff 204.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Locklear Over 0.5 (+105) diff 204.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-110) diff 204.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 38.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Amaya Over 0.5 (+105) diff 202.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+103	-137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 40.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-130) diff 199.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.456 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/112 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 76/112 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 199.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-165) diff 199.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.456 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/112 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 76/112 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 199.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-123) diff 199.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 199.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 0.5 (-175) diff 198.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 47 PA | 10/41 | HR 0 | K% 27.7% | BB% 6.4% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 47 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/58 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 72/111 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 198.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 198.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 0.5 (-175) diff 197.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.326 (61 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/87 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/43 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 27/44 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 51/87 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 197.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-135) diff 194.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 194.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 194.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 194.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 194% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-145) diff 188.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 188.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 (-185) diff 187.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 187.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.453 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 65/105 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 187.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 187.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 187% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (-185) diff 185.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 185.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.433 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/91 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/38 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 23/53 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 44/91 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 185.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 185.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-115) diff 183.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.527 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .422
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/107 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 62/107 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (-185) diff 178.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 178.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.339 (76 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 37/54 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 72/108 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 178.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 178.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 178% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Manzardo Over 0.5 (-165) diff 172.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 172.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.262 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/51 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 25/50 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 50/101 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 172.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 172.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 173% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-155) diff 171.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 171.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.619 (48 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 55/110 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 171.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 171.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 172% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (-165) diff 166.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 166.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-160) diff 166.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 166.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-160) diff 166.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 166.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-135) diff 160.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.189 (53 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/105 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/50 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 31/55 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 66/105 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 161% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (-160) diff 160.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.292 (56 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/54 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 71/110 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-150) diff 159.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 159.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.536 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/93 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/48 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 48/93 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 159.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 159.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 (-200) diff 157.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -196 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -196 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-196	+150	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 157.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.355 (63 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/109 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 75/109 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 157.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 157.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 158% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-190) diff 157.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	-190	+145	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 157.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.234 (31 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/103 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 65/103 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 157.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 157.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 157% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 (-150) diff 156.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 156.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.327 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/97 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/48 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 32/49 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 60/97 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 156.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 156.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 157% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-175) diff 145.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (14 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/107 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/51 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 61/107 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-155) diff 138.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 138.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.298 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 57/110 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 138.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 138.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (+180) diff 127.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.203 (62 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/103 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/49 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 56/103 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-190) diff 123.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 123.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.256 (36 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 123.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 123.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-150) diff 120.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 120.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 69/110 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 120.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 120.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 (-175) diff 111.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.234 (33 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/104 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 38/49 over 0.5 (78%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 68/104 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-165) diff 101.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 101.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 53/107 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 101.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 101.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-155) diff 88.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.94 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.206 (31 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/105 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/51 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 58/105 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 88.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 88.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-114) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-128	-105	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.700 (50 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 3.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.69 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.32

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.85
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.180 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 53/103 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+134) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.560 (44 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter TB: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.11

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-130) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.654 (23 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/102 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 43/102 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+115) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (26 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/109 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 49/109 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-102) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.367 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 51/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.05

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+126) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.386 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/112 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 56/112 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.08

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+116) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.322 (52 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter TB: 48/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.09

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+109) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.500 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/104 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 41/104 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+130) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.464 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 15 PA | 5/11 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 26.7% | OPS 1.600
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/111 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 46/111 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-106) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (49 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/110 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 53/110 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-115) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.568 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/102 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter TB: 43/102 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+118) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.486 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/94 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 43/94 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+103) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 8 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-102) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-102	-129	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.185 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 25 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 16.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS .507
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/91 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/91 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+126) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 58/111 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+130) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.628 (38 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 42/109 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+119) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-117) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.617 (58 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 48/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+115) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.578 (31 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/88 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 37/88 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+110) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.356 (62 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.80

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-142) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 2.5 +139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	2.5	+139	-182	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.582 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/103 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 40/103 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-185) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.07
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.383 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .398
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/51 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 75/102 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-131) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.357 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/96 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/47 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 43/96 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-117) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.463 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/108 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 41/108 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+136) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.366 (81 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.042
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/103 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 47/103 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+121) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.366 (81 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.042
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/103 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 47/103 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Under 1.5 (-190) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 62/99 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-125) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-116	-111	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-145) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+118	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edouard Julien Over 1.5 (+141) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Sullivan Over 1.5 (+139) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+109) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+109	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/81 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/40 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 31/81 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.47

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+138) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.415 (77 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/108 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 45/108 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (-105) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.686 (23 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.044
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/94 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/46 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 16/48 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 39/94 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.47

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+130) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (42 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/110 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 41/110 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.59

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+135) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (41 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 50/104 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+114) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (38 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/105 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 47/105 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+121) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.359 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/107 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 45/107 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+130) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 31/80 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/40 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 14/40 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 31/80 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.49

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (+140) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+117) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 32/87 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/43 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 32/87 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.74

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-173) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.341 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/108 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 66/108 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (-115) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Tolbert Over 1.5 (+134) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — John Rave Over 1.5 (+117) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Rojas Over 1.5 (+125) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+114) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-191) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	Recommended
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 72/106 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-185) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.08
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 68/103 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/50 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 68/103 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+122) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.304 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/108 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 44/108 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+134) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.557 (29 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/101 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 37/101 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+109) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.331 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 40/106 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+107) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .857
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/82 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/41 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 31/82 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+137) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+137	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/80 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 34/80 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.57

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+122) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/108 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 45/108 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Freeman Over 1.5 (+134) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/108 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 52/108 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+120) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/108 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 52/108 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+137) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.246 (28 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Starling Marte Over 1.5 (+106) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.246 (28 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-105) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (52 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 51/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+101) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.602 (21 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS 1.122
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-215) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -209 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -209 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
Caesars	1.5	+154	-209	Recommended
DK	1.5	+160	-215	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.279 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/103 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 66/103 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+105) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (30 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 29/76 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/38 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 18/38 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 29/76 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Under 1.5 (-155) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.346 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 66/97 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/49 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 66/97 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-113) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.381 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/104 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 40/104 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+118) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+146) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+150) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.431 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 4 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+113) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/108 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 40/108 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+156) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +156

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+156	-210	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.575 (23 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/84 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/39 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 37/84 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+154) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +154

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.384 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .611
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/101 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 42/101 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-168) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/102 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 25/47 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 58/102 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+110) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/110 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 46/110 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enrique Hernandez Over 1.5 (+171) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+139) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+161) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +161

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+123) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+138) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Rojas Over 1.5 (+171) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (+190) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+160) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+122) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.239 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 45/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-185) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (51 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/106 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 under 1.5 (44%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 56/106 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+143) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+148	-200	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/109 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 17/55 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 38/109 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.35

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+133) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Urias Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+141	-193	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+105) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/107 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 44/107 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-130) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.378 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/104 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/50 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 68/104 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (-180) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+137) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 38/110 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/59 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 38/110 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (-128) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-114	-114	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.328 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/99 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/99 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+137) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.268 (58 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/111 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 47/111 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+137) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (51 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+119) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+138) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+120) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-105) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+131) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+122) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Under 1.5 (-175) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	Recommended
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.245 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/108 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 68/108 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-139) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.274 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 36/104 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 36/104 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.46

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-145) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.376 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.010
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 74/111 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+141) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-220) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 65.0% / Under 35.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+149) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.534 (20 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/106 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 41/106 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-157) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-164) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-182) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/112 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 73/112 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-190) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.325 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/90 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/46 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 26/44 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 55/90 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+133) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+137) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+145) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+135) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-137) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.444 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 71/110 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-175) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.560 (28 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 69/110 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Under 1.5 (-175) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Under 1.5 (-156) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	Recommended
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Under 1.5 (-175) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +127; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-189) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.219 (57 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 62/105 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+112) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/100 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 39/100 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.52

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-106) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.227 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/99 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 43/99 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-140) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	Recommended
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.563 (30 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/105 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 66/105 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+141) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+127) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+146) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+140) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 200.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jhostynxon Garcia Over 0.5 (-110) diff 200.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Davis Schneider Over 0.5 (+109) diff 199.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 0.5 (-165) diff 188.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.274 (23 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/107 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 over 0.5 (66%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 66/107 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-145) diff 186.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-145	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 186.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (55 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/107 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 37/53 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 75/107 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 186.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 187% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 0.5 (-175) diff 180.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.111 (23 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 37/53 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 69/107 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 0.5 (-175) diff 179.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.296 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/51 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 69/105 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 (-190) diff 175.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 175.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/102 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 65/102 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 175.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 175% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-105) diff 166.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+106	-137	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+104	-137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-135) diff 166.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jake Rogers Over 0.5 (+120) diff 166.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-155) diff 164.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.271 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/98 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 56/98 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 (-135) diff 161.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 161.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.308 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 2 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS 1.506
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/52 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 54/106 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 161.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 161% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-185) diff 157.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 157.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.417 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 41/54 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 72/105 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 157.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 157% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 0.5 (-120) diff 155.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.218 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.197 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 98, HR vulnerability 2 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 70/108 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 156% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-135) diff 149.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 149.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.218 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.206 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 98, HR vulnerability 2 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/92 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/47 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 29/45 over 0.5 (64%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 60/92 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 149.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 0.5 (-125) diff 147.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.218 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.732 (29 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 98, HR vulnerability 2 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/110 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 65/110 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 (-115) diff 141.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 141.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.161 (17 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.571 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/95 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 24/46 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 52/95 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 141.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 (+180) diff 139.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (53 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/103 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 56/103 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 129.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 129.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.347 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 25/51 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 53/105 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 129.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-140) diff 124.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 124.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.348 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.111
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 52/104 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/50 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 52/104 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 124.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+160) diff 121.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 121.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.257 (72 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/104 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 61/104 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 121.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Over 0.5 (-160) diff 120.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 120.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.218 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.304 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 98, HR vulnerability 2 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/91 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/50 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 28/41 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 64/91 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 120.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jorge Soler Over 0.5 (+105) diff 115.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-102	-127	-
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 115.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.218 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.396 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 98, HR vulnerability 2 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/86 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/46 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 28/40 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 56/86 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 115.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Batter HR — 266 play(s) (B 13 | C 253)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Amed Rosario Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0550
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.355 (63 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 103/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 81.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1019
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.339 (76 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1182
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.292 (56 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/110 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/110 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1209
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.433 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/91 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 81/91 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1235
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 72/81 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 72/81 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1682
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.527 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .422
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/107 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 89/107 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 65.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1553
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.470 (42 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1915
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.407 (67 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/94 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/46 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 76/94 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-800) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2162
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.607 (57 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-650) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2925
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.560 (44 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/106 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 47/61 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 76/106 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 98.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0097
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.180 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/103 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 102/103 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 97.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0097
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/103 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/50 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 102/103 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Rogers Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jhostynxon Garcia Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Locklear Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Robles Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Malgeri Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0309
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.346 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/97 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 94/97 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Urias Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.279 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/103 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/56 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 47/47 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 103/103 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.8% / Under 85.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Romy Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jahmai Jones Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Everson Pereira Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Allen Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Vazquez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Williamson Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-700) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — John Rave Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Maile Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Rojas Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.357 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 29, HR vulnerability 71 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Sullivan Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-700) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-450) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0385
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (41 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/104 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/49 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 100/104 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0388
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.234 (31 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 99/103 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 99/103 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0481
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.234 (33 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/104 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 99/104 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (51 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/106 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 100/106 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 89.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0659
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.218 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.304 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 98, HR vulnerability 2 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 85/91 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 85/91 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 89.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0536
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/112 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 106/112 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0636
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/58 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 103/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 88.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0561
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 101/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0594
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.384 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .611
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/101 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 95/101 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0571
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.563 (30 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/105 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 99/105 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 86.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0722
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.327 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/97 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 91/97 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0762
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.417 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 98/105 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/105 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.347 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 99/105 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 99/105 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 85.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0808
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/99 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 91/99 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0857
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.206 (31 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/105 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/105 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-900) diff 85.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0865
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.257 (72 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/104 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 95/104 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.271 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/98 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 91/98 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0762
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.296 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/105 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/105 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/108 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 100/108 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0727
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.602 (21 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS 1.122
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 103/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0841
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (14 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 98/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-750) diff 83.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0784
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.383 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .398
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/102 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/102 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/108 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 99/108 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-750) diff 83.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0952
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.453 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/105 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 96/105 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 83.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0841
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (55 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 98/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0980
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/102 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 92/102 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0971
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (53 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/103 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/103 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0901
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.376 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.010
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/111 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 103/111 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0889
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.325 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/90 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 39/44 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 82/90 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 80.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0943
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.534 (20 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/106 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 96/106 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/109 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 100/109 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1028
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/107 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 97/107 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-750) diff 80.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1028
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/107 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 96/107 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0952
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.575 (23 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 76/84 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/39 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 76/84 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1091
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.298 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/110 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/110 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.256 (36 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/102 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 91/102 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1395
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.218 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.396 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 98, HR vulnerability 2 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 74/86 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 74/86 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-900) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.203 (62 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-750) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.245 (65 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 63.6% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1042
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.357 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/96 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 87/96 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1215
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.111 (23 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/107 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 96/107 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1226
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/106 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/106 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.341 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.218 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.732 (29 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 98, HR vulnerability 2 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1091
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/110 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 99/110 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.456 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 99/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.456 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 99/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1321
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (60 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/106 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 93/106 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1346
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.348 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.111
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.189 (53 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1182
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (42 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/110 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 100/110 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1125
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 72/80 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 72/80 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1204
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.463 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/108 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 95/108 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1759
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.218 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.197 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 98, HR vulnerability 2 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/108 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 90/108 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (51 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1182
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.619 (48 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/110 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 98/110 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1290
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.536 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/93 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 81/93 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.219 (57 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1368
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.161 (17 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/95 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 82/95 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.326 (61 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/87 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 76/87 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1495
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.274 (23 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-475) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (52 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1400
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1346
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.635 (26 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-650) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1495
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.359 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1509
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.308 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 2 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS 1.506
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/106 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 94/106 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1636
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.560 (28 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 93/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/108 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 93/108 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-650) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1235
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 72/81 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 72/81 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1711
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (30 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 65/76 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 33/38 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 65/76 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1957
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.218 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.206 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 98, HR vulnerability 2 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 75/92 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 75/92 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1509
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.431 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 4 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-700) diff 70.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1636
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1622
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.268 (58 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/111 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/111 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1308
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.742 (27 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/107 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 94/107 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Manzardo Under 0.5 (-700) diff 69.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1287
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.262 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/101 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 89/101 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-700) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1277
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.686 (23 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.044
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 83/94 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 83/94 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-550) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1717
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.227 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/99 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 84/99 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-900) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 16.2% / Under 83.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1277
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.486 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/94 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/94 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 8 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 8 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-500) diff 68.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1442
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.381 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 89/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (49 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/80 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 68/80 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1792
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.246 (28 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/106 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 88/106 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1792
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.246 (28 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/106 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 88/106 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1792
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.246 (28 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/106 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 88/106 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-450) diff 66.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.274 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/104 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 88/104 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-600) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1792
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/106 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 88/106 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1584
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.557 (29 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/101 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 86/101 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 17.0% / Under 83.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1584
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.557 (29 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/101 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 86/101 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1698
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (28 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .967
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/106 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 89/106 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-650) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2072
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 47 PA | 10/41 | HR 0 | K% 27.7% | BB% 6.4% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 47 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/111 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 88/111 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1905
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (38 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/105 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 87/105 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-475) diff 63.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.444 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/110 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 91/110 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-500) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1839
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/87 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 38/44 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 74/87 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-650) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 19.5% / Under 80.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1982
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.239 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/111 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 90/111 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-650) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1959
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.312 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/97 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 80/97 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2130
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.245 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/108 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 87/108 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Kurtz Under 0.5 (-285) diff 60.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2121
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.328 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/99 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 80/99 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1978
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.185 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 25 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 16.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS .507
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/91 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 74/91 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-400) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1978
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.185 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 25 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 16.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS .507
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/91 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 74/91 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.577 (35 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/100 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 80/100 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-475) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2233
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.366 (81 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.042
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/103 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 83/103 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 3:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2233
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.366 (81 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.042
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/103 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 83/103 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-370) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1748
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.582 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-600) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2037
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.415 (77 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/108 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 87/108 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-450) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2091
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.356 (62 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/110 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 89/110 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-350) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2286
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.617 (58 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/101 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 77/101 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-600) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2255
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.515 (52 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 80/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-550) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1982
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.464 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 15 PA | 5/11 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 26.7% | OPS 1.600
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/111 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 91/111 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-500) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.304 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/108 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 85/108 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-600) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2255
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.568 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/102 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 82/102 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-650) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2110
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.628 (38 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/109 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 88/109 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-375) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2317
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .857
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/82 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/41 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 64/82 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-550) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (26 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/109 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 87/109 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-750) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.578 (31 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/88 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/46 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 69/88 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2212
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.500 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/104 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 85/104 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2703
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/111 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 84/111 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-600) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2593
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.322 (52 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 82/108 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-700) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2404
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/104 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 80/104 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-550) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2679
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.386 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: JR Ritchie contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JR Ritchie: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/112 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/112 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-475) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2727
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.367 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 83/110 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-350) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3143
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/105 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 77/105 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3182
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.700 (50 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 3.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/110 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 80/110 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-330) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3182
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.700 (50 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 3.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/110 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 80/110 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 (+112) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 18.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 18.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+110	-155	-
BetOnline	18.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	18.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+112	-149	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+116	-158	-
Fanatics	18.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 21.046999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 13.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.16 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 117)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.6 | pitch-count proxy 117
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sandy Alcantara: 91 PA | K% 13.2% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .277 | OPS .752
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.2%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 13.2%/91 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.9%, L7 9.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.5%/91 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 7.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.50 | Season Avg 19.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.55 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.55 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — George Kirby Over 17.5 (-206) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -206

Selected market: Over 62.9% / Under 37.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 62.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 17.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-220	+155	-
Caesars	17.5	-197	+145	-
DK	17.5	-206	+152	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-200	+146	-
Fanatics	17.5	-195	+135	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 19.679 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.66 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.9% / under 37.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 62.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 53 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .314 | OPS .849
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.5%, L7 19.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.8%/53 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 7.6%, L7 6.6%, season 8.6%, BVP 3.8%/53 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.18 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.18 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kyle Freeland Under 17.5 (-114) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-110	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	17.5	-113	-118	-
DK	17.5	-116	-114	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	+102	-136	-
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 15.83 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.18 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .255 | OPS .603
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.1%, L7 19.3%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.0%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 5.5%, split 5.3%, L7 6.6%, season 8.3%, BVP 0.0%/52 PA (adj 0.79x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 14.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +2.20 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael King Under 17.5 (+116) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-154	+116	-
DK	17.5	-151	+116	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-140	+106	-
Fanatics	17.5	-165	+115	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.079 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 49 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 20.4% | AVG .359 | OPS 1.131
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 18.2%, L7 18.3%, season 20.8%, BVP 14.3%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 6.7%, L7 10.1%, season 6.9%, BVP 20.4%/49 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cade Cavalli Under 17.5 (-133) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 17.36 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 16.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-135	-105	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	17.5	-110	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	17.5	+100	-130	-
DK	17.5	+100	-133	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-106	-125	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.449 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 17.36 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.1 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 24 PA | K% 45.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .261 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.9%, L7 19.1%, season 21.3%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 45.8%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.4%, L7 9.0%, season 8.0%, BVP 0.0%/24 PA (adj 0.91x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6); lineup K% 20.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.60 | Season Avg 15.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Gerrit Cole Over 17.5 (-164) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 17.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 17.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	17.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	17.5	-190	+140	-
DK	17.5	-164	+123	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	-
Fanatics	17.5	-200	+140	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-185	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 18.368 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.77 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 53 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .216 | OPS .755
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.5%, L7 21.0%, season 21.7%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 24.5%/53 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 11.4%, L7 8.3%, season 10.9%, BVP 3.8%/53 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (6/6); lineup K% 20.8% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Peter Lambert Under 17.5 (-101) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	-105	-
BetOnline	17.5	-135	-105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-138	+100	-
DK	17.5	-131	-101	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	-
Fanatics	17.5	-165	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.697 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.47 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Peter Lambert: 60 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .927
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.6%, L7 29.0%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.3%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 6.9%, L7 8.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 11.7%/60 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Taj Bradley Over 18.5 (+150) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 18.1 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books | 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-220	+155	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+150	-200	-
DK	18.5	+150	-204	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+154	-210	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 19.237999999999996 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 37.3% / under 62.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 18.1 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 51 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .217 | OPS .794
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.2%, L7 24.5%, season 23.1%, BVP 19.6%/51 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 8.8%, L7 8.3%, season 8.8%, BVP 9.8%/51 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 17.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Keider Montero Under 5.5 (-103) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.13, BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 3.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.8%, L7 23.8%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/23 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Bennett Under 5.5 (-113) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.78 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 0.99, BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.2%, L7 21.8%, season 20.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Under 5.5 (-120) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 16.7%, L7 14.0%, season 19.2%, top-6 17.0% (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6); lineup K% 15.9% (6/9)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Freeland Over 6.5 (-144) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 6.75 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-110	Recommended
DK	6.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	6.5	-140	+100	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.8 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.30 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.50, BB% 4.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 6.75 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .255 | OPS .603
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.1%, L7 19.3%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.0%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.30 | Season Avg 6.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly Under 5.5 (-114) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-116	-114	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 8.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Merrill Kelly: 42 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .282 | OPS .846
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 17.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.1%, top-6 17.2%, BVP 19.1%/42 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.2% (6/6); lineup K% 17.2% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Under 5.5 (+120) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 6.3 IP (WHIP 1.12, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sandy Alcantara: 91 PA | K% 13.2% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .277 | OPS .752
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.2%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 13.2%/91 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 6.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gage Jump Over 5.5 (+106) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.20 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.59, BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.4% / under 54.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 24.9%, L7 17.8%, season 22.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 6.5 6.5 (-125) edge 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 6.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -125

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 6.5

Line distribution: 6.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 6.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 6.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	6.5	-123	-	-
BetRivers	6.5	-121	-	-
BetUS	6.5	-125	-	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-125	-	-
DK	6.5	-125	-	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-124	-	-
LowVig	6.5	-121	-	-
MyBookie	6.5	-123	-	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-120	-	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓–!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 16 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 6.5
Home SP: Colin Rea (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Gerrit Cole (RHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 104)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 0.93, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 16 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
Stats within normal range

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High Total edge 26% (≥25%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Under 11.0 11.0 (-115) edge 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Under 11 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 11 -115

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 11

Line distribution: 11 at 8 books | 10.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Under 11 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 10.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	10.5	-	+102	-
theScore Bet	10.5	-	+105	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	11	-	-118	-
BetOnline	11	-	-115	-
BetUS	11	-	-115	-
Bovada Direct	11	-	-120	-
DK	11	-	-115	Selected
FanDuel	11	-	-115	-
LowVig	11	-	-113	Recommended
MyBookie	11	-	-117	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 11.0
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Keider Montero (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-105) edge 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -105

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-105	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-107	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-110	-	-
DK	7.5	-105	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-106	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-102	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-102	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Griffin Jax (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Anthony Kay (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 101)
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 53%, bullpen 47%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Griffin Jax elite xFIP (3.47)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.5 8.5 (-122) edge 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 8.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -122

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8.5

Line distribution: 8.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 8.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8.5	-120	-	-
BetOnline	8.5	-120	-	-
BetRivers	8.5	-121	-	-
BetUS	8.5	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-125	-	-
DK	8.5	-122	-	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-120	-	-
LowVig	8.5	-118	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	8.5	-123	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	-120	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 10.0 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Chase Burns (RHP) | opp wRC+ 119 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Mitch Keller (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Cincinnati Reds confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 112 (team 98)
Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 105)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 10.0
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.11
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-120) edge 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -120

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 8 books | 7.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7	-120	-	-
BetOnline	7	-119	-	-
BetRivers	7	-120	-	-
BetUS	7	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-120	-	-
DK	7	-120	-	Selected
LowVig	7	-117	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7	-118	-	-
FanDuel	7.5	+100	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: George Kirby (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Taj Bradley (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 95)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 66%, bullpen 34%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-106) edge 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	3.5	-101	-119	RecommendedRaw Best
BetUS	3.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	3.5	-105	-125	-
FanDuel	3.5	-106	-122	Selected
MyBookie	3.5	-103	-119	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (25)

[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 16 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Colin Rea xFIP 4.72
Gerrit Cole xFIP 3.77
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 112 (team 104)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 112 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.12
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 16 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Colin Rea (RHP)
Away SP: Gerrit Cole (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 48.8% (7 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High F5 edge 20% (≥18%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (+100) edge 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 6 -111 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 6 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 6 -111 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 5.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+100	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetMGM	6	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	6	-109	-111	Recommended
BetUS	6	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	6	-105	-125	-
Caesars	6	-105	-125	-
MyBookie	6	-103	-118	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 3.94
Keider Montero xFIP 4.47
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 101)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
Away SP: Keider Montero (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 46.9% (1 books)

▸ F5 ML — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — San Francisco Giants (+114) edge 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (F5) | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +125 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +114

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +125 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Reiver Sanmartin (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Michael King xFIP 4.43
Landen Roupp xFIP 3.70
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 97)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.02
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Michael King (RHP)
Away SP: Landen Roupp (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Boston Red Sox (+140) edge 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS +155 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +140

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetUS +155 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Emmet Sheehan xFIP 3.98
Jake Bennett xFIP 3.93
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 120 blended 50% (team 108)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Emmet Sheehan (RHP)
Away SP: Jake Bennett (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

▸ NRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake NRFI — NRFI (+118) edge 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +118

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0317 after 0.0150 buffer
Keider Montero / Gage Jump announced and matched

GAME BETS — DETAIL

5 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Total	Over 6.5	DK	-125	53.1%	79.5%	+26.3%	$+43.03	9	Bet on DK
C	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	4:06 PM	Total	Under 11.0	DK	-115	51.1%	74.2%	+23.1%	$+38.71	9	Bet on DK
C	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-105	48.9%	70.8%	+21.9%	$+38.22	9	Bet on DK
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	1:41 PM	Total	Over 8.5	DK	-122	52.5%	69.5%	+17.0%	$+26.52	9	Bet on DK
C	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-120	52.0%	68.7%	+16.7%	$+25.96	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (5 play(s))

C Over 6.5 — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +26.3%

[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 16 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 6.5
Home SP: Colin Rea (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Gerrit Cole (RHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 104)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 0.93, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 16 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
Stats within normal range

C Under 11.0 — Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (Total) +23.1%

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 11.0
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Keider Montero (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.5 — Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (Total) +21.9%

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Griffin Jax (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Anthony Kay (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 101)
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 53%, bullpen 47%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Griffin Jax elite xFIP (3.47)

C Over 8.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (Total) +17.0%

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 10.0 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Chase Burns (RHP) | opp wRC+ 119 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Mitch Keller (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Cincinnati Reds confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 112 (team 98)
Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 105)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 10.0
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.11
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.0 — Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners (Total) +16.7%

[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: George Kirby (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Taj Bradley (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 95)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 66%, bullpen 34%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

6 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	2:21 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-106	48.4%	68.3%	+19.9%	$+32.71	6	Bet on DK
C	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5)	4:06 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	+100	46.9%	63.6%	+16.7%	$+27.24	6	Bet on DK
B	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	3:11 PM	F5 Total	Under 6.5	FanDuel	-128	52.6%	68.6%	+15.9%	$+22.14	6	Bet on DK
B	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5)	1:41 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-144	55.3%	67.6%	+12.2%	$+14.51	6	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (F5)	4:11 PM	F5 ML	San Francisco Giants	DK	+114	44.1%	54.1%	+10.0%	$+15.83	9	Bet on DK
C	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5)	7:21 PM	F5 ML	Boston Red Sox	DK	+140	39.3%	48.7%	+9.4%	$+16.84	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (6 play(s))

C Over 3.5 — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 Total) +19.9%

[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 16 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Colin Rea xFIP 4.72
Gerrit Cole xFIP 3.77
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 112 (team 104)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 112 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.12
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 16 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Colin Rea (RHP)
Away SP: Gerrit Cole (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +16.7%

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 3.94
Keider Montero xFIP 4.47
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 101)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
Away SP: Keider Montero (RHP)

B Under 6.5 — Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 Total) +15.9%

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 5.3 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Kyle Freeland xFIP 4.18
Seth Lugo xFIP 4.50
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 115 (team 103)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 99 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kyle Freeland (LHP)
Away SP: Seth Lugo (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) (F5 Total) +12.2%

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Griffin Jax xFIP 3.47
Anthony Kay xFIP 4.80
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 119 (team 101)
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 109 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.14
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Griffin Jax (RHP)
Away SP: Anthony Kay (LHP)

C San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (F5) (F5 ML) +10.0%

[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Reiver Sanmartin (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Michael King xFIP 4.43
Landen Roupp xFIP 3.70
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 97)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.02
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Michael King (RHP)
Away SP: Landen Roupp (RHP)

C Boston Red Sox — Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) (F5 ML) +9.4%

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Emmet Sheehan xFIP 3.98
Jake Bennett xFIP 3.93
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 120 blended 50% (team 108)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Emmet Sheehan (RHP)
Away SP: Jake Bennett (LHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

1:36 PM · decision fi-b89f7ce187098671

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.7% / YRFI 50.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Cade Cavalli · official_announced · matched

Home starter: JR Ritchie · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.497
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Cade Cavalli / JR Ritchie announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.497

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCade Cavalli / JR Ritchie announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-115	49.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

1:36 PM · decision fi-410cecfa497c055d

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.7% / YRFI 48.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Zack Wheeler · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kyle Bradish · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.517
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Zack Wheeler / Kyle Bradish announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.517

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSZack Wheeler / Kyle Bradish announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-156	+118	57.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays

1:38 PM · decision fi-7c585019a19ee189

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.3% / YRFI 49.7%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Matthew Liberatore · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Max Scherzer · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.503
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Matthew Liberatore / Max Scherzer announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.503

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMatthew Liberatore / Max Scherzer announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-105	-120	48.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+100	-137	46.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+104	-132	46.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians

1:41 PM · decision fi-0c1c2b75dcbefcb1

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.8% / YRFI 49.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Merrill Kelly · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Gavin Williams · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Merrill Kelly / Gavin Williams announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMerrill Kelly / Gavin Williams announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-130	-102	52.8%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-124	-108	51.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

1:41 PM · decision fi-7c39cb48612fe831

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.0% / YRFI 49.0%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Anthony Kay · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Griffin Jax · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.510
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Anthony Kay / Griffin Jax announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.510

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSAnthony Kay / Griffin Jax announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-130	-102	52.8%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-132	+100	53.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

1:41 PM · decision fi-c41710c602d68f71

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.4% / YRFI 50.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Mitch Keller · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Chase Burns · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.494
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Mitch Keller / Chase Burns announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.494

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMitch Keller / Chase Burns announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-115	-110	50.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-114	-124	49.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

1:41 PM · decision fi-bff454e2026aa1b7

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.4% / YRFI 49.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Sandy Alcantara · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Robert Stock · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.504
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sandy Alcantara / Robert Stock announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.504

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSandy Alcantara / Robert Stock announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-115	49.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-119	-111	50.8%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-114	-117	49.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

2:11 PM · decision fi-360f239e549566a8

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.9% / YRFI 50.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Kumar Rocker · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Peter Lambert · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Kumar Rocker / Peter Lambert announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKumar Rocker / Peter Lambert announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-115	-110	50.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

2:21 PM · decision fi-fccc4350a2999a78

YRFI · Grade B

2026 Model Probability

50.3%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Executable Price

Caesars +130

Raw / Effective Edge

+6.8% / +6.3%

Away starter: Gerrit Cole · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Colin Rea · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.497
Grade B: YRFI effective edge 0.0631 after 0.0050 buffer
Gerrit Cole / Colin Rea announced and matched

Grade B reflects effective edge plus 5 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.497

Executable price · PASSGrade B: YRFI effective edge 0.0631 after 0.0050 buffer

Starter status · PASSGerrit Cole / Colin Rea announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-160	+125	58.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-161	+120	57.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-150	+114	56.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-162	+126	58.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-160	+130	58.6%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies

3:11 PM · decision fi-614edac745ad9993

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 44.4% / YRFI 55.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Seth Lugo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kyle Freeland · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.444
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Seth Lugo / Kyle Freeland announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.444

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSeth Lugo / Kyle Freeland announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+120	-155	42.8%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+131	-175	40.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+123	-165	41.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+124	-160	42.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+115	-145	44.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels

3:16 PM · decision fi-87ac7c7136d2cb5b

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.3% / YRFI 48.7%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jacob Misiorowski · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Walbert Ureña · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.513
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jacob Misiorowski / Walbert Ureña announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.513

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJacob Misiorowski / Walbert Ureña announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-150	+118	56.7%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-161	+121	57.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-167	+120	57.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-156	+122	57.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-145	+115	56.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Detroit Tigers @ Athletics

4:06 PM · decision fi-d9bdb79167068085

NRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Executable Price

BetMGM +118

Raw / Effective Edge

+4.7% / +3.2%

Away starter: Keider Montero · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Gage Jump · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0317 after 0.0150 buffer
Keider Montero / Gage Jump announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 5 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · PASSGrade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0317 after 0.0150 buffer

Starter status · PASSKeider Montero / Gage Jump announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+118	-150	43.3%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+111	-147	44.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+108	-143	45.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+118	-150	43.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners

4:11 PM · decision fi-f5d00e1d0132f1e5

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.7% / YRFI 49.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Taj Bradley · official_announced · matched

Home starter: George Kirby · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Taj Bradley / George Kirby announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTaj Bradley / George Kirby announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-145	+110	55.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-141	+107	54.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-146	+114	55.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

4:11 PM · decision fi-8293d0fcc9d477bb

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.5% / YRFI 48.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Landen Roupp · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Michael King · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Landen Roupp / Michael King announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.515

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSLanden Roupp / Michael King announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	+100	52.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-141	+106	54.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-132	-104	52.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

7:21 PM · decision fi-efd75b8462d7a25b

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.2% / YRFI 48.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jake Bennett · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Emmet Sheehan · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T16:25:31.105487Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jake Bennett / Emmet Sheehan announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJake Bennett / Emmet Sheehan announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 266 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=266
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	2:11 PM	2	Kumar Rocker (R)	theScore Bet	+220	-	40.2%	28.9%	+11.2%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	2	Colin Rea (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	39.9%	18.8%	+21.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Bleday	Cincinnati Reds	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	1:41 PM	3	Mitch Keller (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	38.8%	27.1%	+11.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Starling Marte	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	5	Kyle Freeland (L)	theScore Bet	+600	-	37.9%	13.3%	+24.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	3	Kyle Freeland (L)	theScore Bet	+240	-	37.8%	27.2%	+10.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	4	JR Ritchie (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	36.1%	19.7%	+16.4%	99	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	1	Gerrit Cole (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	35.7%	16.4%	+19.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	3	Matthew Liberatore (L)	theScore Bet	+325	-	34.7%	22.0%	+12.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	James Wood	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	1	JR Ritchie (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	34.4%	20.8%	+13.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	1:41 PM	2	Mitch Keller (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	34.0%	24.6%	+9.4%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	1:41 PM	2	Chase Burns (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	33.8%	23.2%	+10.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	3	Griffin Jax (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	33.5%	18.8%	+14.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	3:16 PM	-	Walbert Ureña (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	33.3%	17.9%	+15.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	-	Emmet Sheehan (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	33.0%	19.7%	+13.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Willi Castro	Colorado Rockies	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	5	Seth Lugo (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	32.4%	17.9%	+14.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	3	Anthony Kay (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.4%	23.2%	+9.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	4	Griffin Jax (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	32.2%	17.9%	+14.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Christian Walker	Houston Astros	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	2:11 PM	4	Kumar Rocker (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	32.2%	19.7%	+12.5%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	2	Kyle Bradish (R)	theScore Bet	+230	-	31.9%	28.0%	+3.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Salvador Perez	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	4	Kyle Freeland (L)	theScore Bet	+275	-	31.6%	24.6%	+7.1%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	100	95.1%	-1956	CJ Abrams, James Wood, Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 4.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	1:41 PM	100	92.3%	-1194	JJ Bleday, Sal Stewart, Brandon Lowe, Elly De La Cruz	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	2:11 PM	100	91.5%	-1078	Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Jake Burger, Joc Pederson	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	100	91.3%	-1051	Kazuma Okamoto, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, George Springer	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	100	91.3%	-1049	Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso, Trea Turner	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	100	91.1%	-1024	Ben Rice, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Spencer Jones	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| Wind 16 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	100	89.7%	-869	Starling Marte, Jac Caglianone, Willi Castro, Salvador Perez	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	100	89.5%	-854	Miguel Vargas, Junior Caminero, Colson Montgomery, Yandy Diaz	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.5%	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	1:41 PM	100	85.8%	-605	Corbin Carroll, Chase DeLauter, Kyle Manzardo, Ketel Marte	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	100	84.9%	-560	Willson Contreras, Shohei Ohtani, Wilyer Abreu, Andy Pages	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	100	84.8%	-558	Randy Arozarena, Kody Clemens, Julio Rodriguez, Dominic Canzone	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	4:06 PM	100	84.2%	-532	Nick Kurtz, Dillon Dingler, Tyler Soderstrom, Spencer Torkelson	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	1:41 PM	100	84.2%	-532	Kyle Stowers, Eddy Alvarez, Francisco Lindor, Griffin Conine	Citi Field HR factor 0.93 \| Wind 14 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP	-
Watchlist	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	3:16 PM	100	82.6%	-476	Jake Bauers, Josh Lowe, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98	-
Watchlist	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	4:11 PM	100	80.8%	-422	Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Manny Machado, Bryce Eldridge	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (+220) HR chance 40.2% | edge +11.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.318, OPS 1.079, ISO 0.317, TB/G 2.32
Statcast: barrel 18.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.7/118.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.713
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 30/110 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0296, xFIP 4.16, K% 21.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.329, xERA 4.58, whiff 25.8%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 3.167, K% 0.0% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.072, OPS 1.143, ISO 0.335 (360 PA)

Strong HR Chance Ben Rice — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (+400) HR chance 39.9% | edge +21.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.292, OPS 0.925, ISO 0.299, TB/G 2.11
Statcast: barrel 15.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.2/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.526
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 30/106 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0356, xFIP 4.72, K% 17.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.357, xERA 5.52, whiff 19.7%
Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.080, OPS 0.758 (25 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.075, OPS 0.993, ISO 0.337 (293 PA)

⚠ Wind 16 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN

Best HR Chance JJ Bleday — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (+240) HR chance 38.8% | edge +11.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.232, OPS 0.803, ISO 0.240, TB/G 1.66
Statcast: barrel 11.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.9/112.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.466
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 18/82 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0267, xFIP 4.51, K% 17.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.345, xERA 5.10, whiff 20.9%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.857, K% 7.1% (14 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.055, OPS 0.830, ISO 0.251 (255 PA)

Best HR Chance Starling Marte — Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (+600) HR chance 37.9% | edge +24.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.179, OPS 0.758, ISO 0.197, TB/G 1.83
Statcast: barrel 10.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.480
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 18/106 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0493, xFIP 4.18, K% 18.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.360, xERA 5.63, whiff 22.1%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.760, K% 10.5% (19 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.064, OPS 0.915, ISO 0.290 (125 PA)

⚠ Batter stats team Arizona Diamondbacks does not match game teams

Best HR Chance Jac Caglianone — Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (+240) HR chance 37.8% | edge +10.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.175, OPS 0.763, ISO 0.204, TB/G 1.62
Statcast: barrel 14.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.0/116.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.491
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 15/103 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0493, xFIP 4.18, K% 18.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.360, xERA 5.63, whiff 22.1%
Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.019, OPS 0.603 (52 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.685, ISO 0.176 (112 PA)

Best HR Chance CJ Abrams — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+375) HR chance 36.1% | edge +16.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.259, OPS 0.925, ISO 0.269, TB/G 2.09
Statcast: barrel 11.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.468
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/108 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0388, xFIP 4.86, K% 20.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.336, xERA 4.80, whiff 23.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.072, OPS 0.999, ISO 0.303 (321 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.322, xwOBA 0.275 (52 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

HR Chance Watchlist Pete Crow-Armstrong — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (+475) HR chance 35.7% | edge +19.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.216, OPS 0.920, ISO 0.257, TB/G 2.03
Statcast: barrel 11.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.472
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 22/111 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0376, xFIP 3.70, K% 26.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.282, xERA 3.28, whiff 22.5%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.943, ISO 0.291 (331 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.607, xwOBA 0.425 (57 PA)

⚠ Elite contact-quality suppressor

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

⚠ Wind 16 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN

Best HR Chance Kazuma Okamoto — St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays (+325) HR chance 34.7% | edge +12.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.222, OPS 0.754, ISO 0.221, TB/G 1.64
Statcast: barrel 13.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.6/112.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.427
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/108 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0432, xFIP 4.26, K% 21.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.346, xERA 5.13, whiff 23.7%
Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.035, OPS 0.935 (29 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.046, OPS 0.718, ISO 0.185 (108 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	+1200	0.8%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	4:11 PM	+1200	0.8%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Steven Kwan	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	1:41 PM	+1100	0.9%	Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nolan Schanuel	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	3:16 PM	+1000	0.9%	Team lineup not posted \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Cold recent HR form
Xander Bogaerts	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	4:11 PM	+900	1.1%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	+700	1.1%	Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Troy Johnston	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	+600	1.1%	Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+700	1.2%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Taylor Ward	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	+600	1.2%	Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	1:41 PM	+1100	1.3%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	4:11 PM	Michael King	Landen Roupp	0.85	19.2%	50.8%	-	+0.0%
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	3:16 PM	Walbert Ureña	Jacob Misiorowski	0.98	17.4%	47.8%	-	+0.0%
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	1:41 PM	Robert Stock	Sandy Alcantara	0.93	15.8%	45.0%	7.1%	+8.7%
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	4:06 PM	Gage Jump	Keider Montero	1.00	15.8%	45.0%	-	+0.0%
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	George Kirby	Taj Bradley	0.92	15.2%	43.8%	-	+0.0%
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	Emmet Sheehan	Jake Bennett	0.97	15.1%	43.7%	-	+0.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	1:41 PM	Gavin Williams	Merrill Kelly	0.95	14.2%	41.9%	8.8%	+5.4%
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	Griffin Jax	Anthony Kay	0.94	10.5%	34.1%	9.4%	+1.1%
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	Kyle Freeland	Seth Lugo	1.20	10.3%	33.8%	3.9%	+6.4%
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Colin Rea	Gerrit Cole	1.05	8.9%	30.4%	10.2%	-1.3%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	Kyle Bradish	Zack Wheeler	1.00	8.7%	30.0%	5.5%	+3.2%
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	Max Scherzer	Matthew Liberatore	0.96	8.7%	29.9%	6.6%	+2.1%
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	2:11 PM	Peter Lambert	Kumar Rocker	1.00	8.5%	29.4%	4.9%	+3.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	1:41 PM	Chase Burns	Mitch Keller	1.15	7.7%	27.5%	4.8%	+2.9%
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	JR Ritchie	Cade Cavalli	1.03	4.9%	19.6%	6.6%	-1.7%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels	89.9	93.3	98.5	5	Curveball (47% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 38.7%, put-away 32.2%, xwOBA 0.218, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles	72.8	70.5	80.5	6	Split-Finger (49% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.254, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	65.3	66.4	68.5	3	Slider (51% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	62.0	59.2	67.0	4	Changeup (37% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox	59.8	64.4	57.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks	59.3	68.9	53.0	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	58.4	49.2	71.0	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs	57.9	51.3	66.5	5	Slider (25% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	56.3	50.7	63.5	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners	56.1	57.8	56.0	4	Cutter (38% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	55.3	50.4	62.5	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox	54.7	71.2	41.0	6	Changeup (43% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	53.4	55.8	52.5	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	52.4	54.1	51.5	6	Slider (29% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	51.7	51.6	53.0	4	Curveball (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	51.0	47.3	54.5	7	Sweeper (26% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	50.8	45.2	57.0	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	49.6	38.6	62.5	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	47.4	53.1	43.0	6	Slider (41% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	46.7	53.0	43.0	5	Changeup (30% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
JR Ritchie	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	44.4	48.9	39.5	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays	42.7	47.3	34.5	8	Curveball (38% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	42.0	47.8	34.5	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	38.8	41.3	35.0	7	Sweeper (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals	37.7	45.5	27.5	6	Curveball (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies	35.2	37.0	31.0	8	Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees	33.3	36.2	29.0	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals	28.1	28.2	21.0	5	Curveball (26% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 17.1%, put-away 10.3%, xwOBA 0.373, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians	25.3	38.4	9.0	6	Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.397, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians	R	17.3%	5.4	5.8	5.7	91	normal	full	9.00	91.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	L	25.3%	4.3	5.2	5.1	72	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
JR Ritchie	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	R	21.1%	2.5	5.1	4.7	42	short	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.5 IP/start
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	20.6%	5.5	5.6	5.6	92	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	18.0%	6.3	6.0	6.0	106	deep	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees	R	17.1%	5.4	5.3	5.3	91	normal	full	29.00	71.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	19.8%	4.6	4.8	4.8	77	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	26.2%	5.4	5.6	5.6	91	normal	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	35.6%	6.2	6.1	6.1	104	deep	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals	L	19.3%	5.4	5.2	5.3	91	normal	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	R	20.5%	3.3	5.7	5.2	55	short	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.3 IP/start
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	R	24.6%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies	R	17.9%	5.4	5.6	5.6	91	normal	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	22.0%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox	R	26.3%	4.9	4.9	4.9	82	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	19.8%	7.0	6.5	6.6	117	deep	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels	R	42.3%	5.4	6.0	6.0	91	normal	full	98.50	1.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners	R	28.3%	6.4	5.8	6.0	107	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs	R	28.1%	6.0	5.7	6.0	101	deep	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles	R	35.5%	5.4	6.1	6.0	91	normal	full	80.50	19.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	R	17.5%	5.0	5.4	5.3	84	short	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	R	21.5%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	R	21.5%	5.3	5.4	5.4	89	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	R	22.0%	6.0	6.0	6.0	101	deep	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	23.8%	4.9	4.9	4.9	82	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox	R	27.5%	5.2	4.6	4.7	87	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	R	22.4%	5.5	5.0	5.1	92	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.1%	3.1	3.5	4.0	52	short	full	21.00	79.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.1 IP/start
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	R	26.0%	5.2	5.1	5.1	87	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	20.7	3.2	18.5%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.1	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	18.5	21.0	2.5	13.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.6	117	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.55 <= 3 min
George Kirby	George Kirby Over	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	19.7	2.2	12.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.18 <= 3 min
Kyle Freeland	Kyle Freeland Under	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	17.5	15.8	-1.7	9.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael King	Michael King Under	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	17.5	16.1	-1.4	8.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cade Cavalli	Cade Cavalli Under	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.1	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Over	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Peter Lambert	Peter Lambert Under	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	17.5	16.7	-0.8	4.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Over	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	19.2	0.7	4.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

230 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
James Wood	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	3.07	1.15	1.20	0.72	2.76 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.87	1.14	0.73	0.99	2.62 / Over	0.30	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Yandy Diaz	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.83	1.64	0.65	0.54	2.64 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Drake Baldwin	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.81	1.18	0.93	0.70	2.58 / Over	0.30	season_games=88,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.77	1.22	0.77	0.78	2.97 / Over	0.30	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Luis Garcia Jr.	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.76	1.47	0.70	0.58	2.43 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Matt Olson	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.67	1.08	0.82	0.77	2.30 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.62	1.36	0.69	0.57	2.47 / Over	0.30	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.59	1.20	0.58	0.82	2.74 / Over	0.30	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jose Ramirez	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	2.55	1.44	0.61	0.51	2.37 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Sal Stewart	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.52	1.06	0.66	0.80	2.47 / Over	0.30	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.52	1.01	0.70	0.81	2.18 / Over	0.30	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Michael Harris II	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.48	1.14	0.59	0.75	2.11 / Over	0.30	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Starling Marte	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	Over 1.5	2.46	1.24	0.57	0.64	2.08 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Pedro Ramirez	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.44	1.44	0.55	0.46	2.37 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.44	1.02	0.74	0.68	1.97 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ben Rice	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.43	1.11	0.70	0.62	2.79 / Over	0.30	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Liam Hicks	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.42	1.09	0.69	0.64	2.24 / Over	0.30	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ozzie Albies	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.41	1.04	0.70	0.67	2.13 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ivan Herrera	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.40	1.29	0.53	0.58	2.22 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Eddy Alvarez	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.39	1.45	0.48	0.46	2.82 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Junior Caminero	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.38	1.14	0.59	0.66	2.48 / Over	0.30	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Francisco Alvarez	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.38	1.44	0.48	0.46	2.82 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Pete Crow-Armstrong	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.37	1.15	0.71	0.51	2.31 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Trea Turner	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.37	1.13	0.83	0.40	2.17 / Over	0.30	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 8 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes